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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
632 am CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

..updated for 12z aviation discussion...

Short term...(today through monday)
issued at 337 am CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

This morning:
may see pesky fog develop in narrow band at interface between
cooler air northwest of boundary and higher dew points/warmer air
to the southeast. This should be limited spatially and transient
enough to not need an advisory. May see an isolated shower or
thunderstorm in extreme southeast Kansas through sunrise...but with
trough moving through...threat should wane fairly quickly.

This afternoon-sun morning:
not anticipating more than an isolated/rogue storm this
afternoon/evening in southeast Kansas. Flow at or below 850mb is
extremely weak...so have doubts there will be sufficient
convergence to get initiation. However still looks to be a decent
chance for elevated precipitation to develop after midnight in
central Kansas...and probably linger into Sun morning across northern
sections of Flint Hills.

Sun afternoon-Mon:
still expect decent chance of severe storms either moving into or
developing over northwest section of forecast area either very late
in the afternoon or more likely in the evening. NAM/GFS/ECMWF all
show variations on the same theme and shear/instability look more
favorable than 24 hours ago. Anticipate mesoscale convective system to move across much of
the rest of the forecast area during the night. Monday is a bit
trickier with a lot depending on track of mesoscale convective system. If airmass ahead of
front does not get worked over/affected by convective debris or
clears early enough to recover...would likely see another round of
severe convection. Both GFS/European model (ecmwf) would support severe convection.
Main difference is European model (ecmwf) is slower pushing front through area...
with severe threat as far north as a Salina-Lyons line...while GFS
would be along/east of I-35. For now will hit threat a bit more on
sun and paint a more broad picture for Monday in hazardous weather
outlook. -Howerton

Long term...(tuesday through friday)
issued at 337 am CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Latest medium range models continue to trend more progressive with
front...which will fortunately limit flooding potential. Still
good possibility of mesoscale convective system Monday night/Tuesday morning as low level jet
intersects east/west surface boundary. As per Monday afternoon
forecast...European model (ecmwf) is quite a bit further north than GFS...so there
is a fair amount of uncertainty where heaviest precipitation will
fall...but somewhere in south central/southeast Kansas appears to be
favored area at this time. By Tuesday night European model (ecmwf) has shunted
precipitation out of the area...while GFS lingers extensive
precipitation across entire forecast area. But trend beyond that
is dry with increasing return flow for the end of the week.
-Howerton

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 630 am CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Patchy fog was impacting the khut and kict areas but should
improve by 14z or sooner. Otherwise light winds and mostly sunny
skies will prevail across the area. There is some concern that an
isolated storm may drift into central Kansas late tonight but
confidence remains too low to mention in area tafs.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 91 70 96 73 / 0 10 10 40
Hutchinson 90 69 96 71 / 0 10 10 50
Newton 90 69 95 72 / 0 10 10 60
Eldorado 91 69 95 73 / 10 10 10 50
Winfield-kwld 91 70 96 75 / 10 10 10 30
Russell 90 71 97 65 / 10 20 20 60
Great Bend 90 70 97 66 / 10 20 20 60
Salina 91 70 96 68 / 0 20 20 60
McPherson 90 69 96 70 / 0 10 20 60
Coffeyville 92 70 96 75 / 20 10 10 20
Chanute 91 69 95 74 / 10 10 10 40
Iola 90 68 94 73 / 10 10 10 50
Parsons-kppf 92 70 96 75 / 10 10 10 30

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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