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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
252 am CST sun Dec 21 2014

Short term...(today through tuesday)
issued at 248 am CST sun Dec 21 2014

A powerful upper level jet streak stretching from the northeast
Pacific into the Pacific northwest...will allow an upper trough to
develop and deepen over the central Continental U.S. Tonight into Tuesday.
Ahead of this developing trough...Lee troughing and southerly flow
should allow for widespread stratus over most or all of the forecast
area today. Areas of fog (possibly dense) will affect central Kansas
through middle morning...as low-level moisture advects north into a
region that has experienced radational cooling. Low-level moisture
advection and developing isentropic lift (285-290k) may yield areas
of drizzle by late morning into this afternoon...especially over
south-central and southeast Kansas. The stratus/drizzle should keep
highs confined to the 40s today. The most widespread precipitation
is expected to occur north/northeast of our forecast area tonight
into Monday...closer to the low pressure track and deep
lift/moisture. Will maintain a 15-30% light rain chance over our
forecast area tonight into Monday with any rain amounts less than
0.10 inch. Despite considerable cloud cover Monday...highs should
be able to reach the upper 40s/lower 50s via northwesterly
downslope winds and steep surface-750 mb lapse rates. Cold air
advection via blustery northwest winds will occur Monday night
into Tuesday...with temperatures falling back to more seasonal
values.

Long term...(wednesday through saturday)
issued at 248 am CST sun Dec 21 2014

The central Continental U.S. Upper trough will push into the eastern states by
Thursday. The next shortwave trough will move from the Pacific
northwest across the Central Plains and upper Mississippi Valley
Thursday into Friday. The European model (ecmwf) has trended more toward the GFS with
a less amplified...progressive wave. The brunt of the moisture/lift
is prognosticated to pass north of central Kansas. However...will leave
a 15-20% chance of light snow in central Kansas Thursday night
into Friday morning with the GFS showing some middle-level
frontogenesis in that area although deep moisture is lacking.
Temperatures will modify to above seasonal by Thursday...before a
cold front pushes southward through the region Thursday
night...bringing temperatures back to near to slightly below
average for late December.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1131 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

Aviation concerns remain low ceilings and fog potential.

MVFR ceilings remain in place for areas along and east of I-135. South
winds will allow moisture to slowly increase which will kee low
clouds in place. Latest satellite imagery shows some LIFR ceilings
quickly expanding north over western OK. Feel that as this area of
lower ceilings expands east...most locations will see IFR ceilings by 09z.
Not out of the question locations west of I-135 could see some
LIFR ceilings. With surface winds staying in the 08-11kt
range...would be much more confident in dense fog if we were
advecting rich dewpoints into the area. However...dewpoints south
of the area only look a few degrees higher than what's currently in
place. So current thinking is that 2-4sm br and IFR/LIFR ceilings will
be the most likely scenario. Low clouds look to remain in place
through most of sun as the airmass remains unchanged.

Lawson

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 46 41 52 32 / 10 10 20 10
Hutchinson 46 40 51 30 / 10 20 10 10
Newton 45 41 51 30 / 10 20 20 10
Eldorado 46 42 52 32 / 10 20 20 10
Winfield-kwld 46 43 52 34 / 10 10 20 20
Russell 47 36 49 28 / 0 20 10 10
Great Bend 46 36 50 28 / 10 20 10 10
Salina 46 39 51 30 / 10 20 10 10
McPherson 45 39 51 30 / 10 20 10 10
Coffeyville 48 44 53 36 / 10 10 30 30
Chanute 47 43 52 34 / 10 20 30 20
Iola 47 43 51 34 / 10 20 30 20
Parsons-kppf 47 43 52 34 / 10 20 30 20

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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