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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
641 am CDT Monday Oct 20 2014

..updated for 12z aviation discussion...

Update...
issued at 604 am CDT Monday Oct 20 2014

Updated to insert fog for locations mainly west of I-135.

Fog developed just ahead of the surface trough that is making its
way across central Kansas. Current observation show that some of it will be
dense.

&&

Short term...(today through wednesday)
issued at 312 am CDT Monday Oct 20 2014

Progressive 500 mb pattern...was has become more amplified
through time...is shown in the water vapor imagery loop this
morning. A disturbance moving through the flow pattern was
centered over the northern Mississippi River valley at 07z...with
ridging east of The Rockies and a trough of the eastern Pacific.

At the surface...a weak cold front extended from
Wisconsin... southwest through northern Kansas. A few showers were
noted on radar across far southeast Kansas...northeast Oklahoma
and areas east.

For today...these showers should continue moving off to the east.
The cold front will become diffuse. By Wednesday...winds will
return south and bring additional moisture into the region ahead
of the next system later in the week.

Cook

Long term...(thursday through sunday)
issued at 312 am CDT Monday Oct 20 2014

The next cold front will move into the region late Wednesday. The
European model (ecmwf) and GFS continue to trend toward more precipitation with this
event...with quantitative precipitation forecast values up to .75 inches. As a
result...precipitation chances are increased. Enough instability
expected ahead of the front along with forcing along the front to
product some thunderstorms. Confidence is pretty high that
precipitation will be observed across the forecast area and that
severe storms will not occur.

High pressure builds into the region over the weekend.

Cook

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 638 am CDT Monday Oct 20 2014

Main aviation concern will be fog this morning.

A weak surface trough is moving through central Kansas which is
evident by a wind shift. Just ahead of the change to north winds
some patchy dense fog has developed. This has affected areas
mainly west of I-135 and is expected to continue through at least
14z. So khut will be the most likely site affected. Once the fog
Burns off...confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail.

Lawson

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 78 52 76 56 / 10 0 0 10
Hutchinson 77 49 76 55 / 0 0 0 10
Newton 76 50 74 55 / 0 0 0 10
Eldorado 77 50 75 54 / 10 0 0 0
Winfield-kwld 78 54 75 56 / 10 0 0 0
Russell 75 47 74 56 / 0 0 0 10
Great Bend 75 48 75 56 / 0 0 0 10
Salina 76 47 74 55 / 0 0 0 10
McPherson 76 49 74 54 / 0 0 0 10
Coffeyville 75 50 74 51 / 20 10 0 0
Chanute 76 48 72 50 / 10 0 0 0
Iola 75 48 72 49 / 10 0 0 0
Parsons-kppf 75 48 74 50 / 20 0 0 0

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
dense fog advisory until 9 am CDT this morning for ksz047-048-
050-067-082-091.

&&

$$

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