Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
552 PM CST Friday Feb 12 2016

..updated for 00z aviation discussion...

Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 159 PM CST Friday Feb 12 2016

The polar surface high will settle into the upper Midwest
tonight...with the flow becoming more northeast to easterly in our
area. Low-level drying and colder air will penetrate southward
through eastern Kansas. Stratus/fog potential should become more focused
over the High Plains where upslope flow is prognosticated. Current forecast
lows mainly in the teens looks very reasonable at this time.

Although southeasterly return flow will occur on Saturday...we still
expect below normal temperatures with a cold start...and only a
slow modification of the polar airmass.

A strong upper trough over the northeastern Pacific this
afternoon...will move southeastward across the northern/Central
Plains Saturday night into early Sunday. South-southwesterly 925-800
mb flow will allow for northeastward low-level moisture transport
into south-central/southeast Kansas Saturday night into early
Sunday. Fairly strong isentropic upglide (285-295k layer) will
promote the development of stratus in this region...and if enough
saturation occurs (surface to 800 mb)...there could be some light
freezing drizzle/drizzle over the Flint Hills/southeast Kansas.

Dryer air advection/subsidence will settle in from west to
east...behind the main strong shortwave trough Sunday with west-
northwesterly flow and steepening low-level lapse rates allowing for
temperatures to climb above normal Sunday afternoon.

A trailing shortwave trough is prognosticated to push southeastward across
the Central Plains Sunday night into early Monday...helping to
strengthen the upper trough over the eastern Continental U.S.. this trailing
wave may result in a few sprinkles/flurries as it comes through
Sunday night/early Monday. Otherwise...mainly a Pacific airmass will
follow this wave with above normal temperatures expected Monday.


Long term...(tuesday through friday)
issued at 159 PM CST Friday Feb 12 2016

The longwave trough over the eastern Continental U.S. Will slide slowly
eastward during the extended period...with the flow pattern coming
more west to east off of the Pacific. This will generally lead to
above normal temperatures with the warmest day likely on Thursday.
Lee troughing on Thursday ahead of an upper trough over the
western states...with 850 temperatures of 15-22 degree celsius over our
area...could potentially lead to near record warmth. Marginal Gulf
moisture return is prognosticated by the GFS/European model (ecmwf) over mainly the
southeastern half of Kansas later Thursday into the
aforementioned upper trough passes over the Central Plains. Will
leave a dry forecast in place given the projected...marginal Gulf
return flow which will increase to the east of our area on Friday.



Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 528 PM CST Friday Feb 12 2016

MVFR ceilings continue to linger across much of central Kansas although
the focus should shift west across the High Plains as we move
through the night. There is some concern that a transient period
of light fzdz may develop across portions of central Kansas early in
the morning...however confidence remains too low to mention in
central Kansas tafs. Light northeast winds will veer to the southeast
and increase in the 15-17 knot range on Saturday.


Fire weather...
issued at 258 PM CST Friday Feb 12 2016

Grassland fire danger is expected to remain low-moderate through
this weekend. A warming trend next week will likely lead to
several days of high to very high grassland fire danger...with
Thursday the biggest day of concern due to near record warm
temperatures and very gusty southwesterly winds.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 18 37 30 55 / 0 0 10 10
Hutchinson 17 37 28 55 / 0 0 10 10
Newton 16 35 28 53 / 0 0 10 10
Eldorado 17 36 29 53 / 0 0 10 20
Winfield-kwld 19 38 33 54 / 0 0 10 20
Russell 17 36 26 52 / 10 10 10 10
Great Bend 18 37 27 54 / 10 10 10 10
Salina 16 35 26 51 / 0 0 10 10
McPherson 17 36 27 53 / 0 0 10 10
Coffeyville 16 38 30 48 / 0 0 10 30
Chanute 15 35 27 47 / 0 0 10 30
Iola 13 33 26 46 / 0 0 10 30
Parsons-kppf 16 37 29 48 / 0 0 10 30


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations