Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1132 am CST Thursday Nov 26 2015
..updated for 18z aviation discussion...
Short term...(today through saturday)
issued at 337 am CST Thursday Nov 26 2015
Current synoptic pattern/satellite water vapor imagery shows upper
level low spinning over the southwestern states with elongated
southwest flow regime stretching all the way into the Great Lakes
and northeastern states...meanwhile another upper level wave was
dropping southward across Canada early this morning towards the
northern states. This northern wave will enhance the upper level jet
winds with-in the upper level southwest flow regime and provide
strong upper dynamics and re-enforce the push of low-level cold air
across the Central Plains. This is a typical synoptic weather
pattern setup for icing events across the region.
Deep isentropic ascent/moisture transport will begin to increase
during the morning hours for areas along and just behind surface
front over central/south central Kansas...with widespread
showers/embedded thunderstorms expected. This activity will spread
into southeast Kansas for this afternoon and continue through the
late evening hours. Heavy rainfall and possible flooding is a
concern over far southeast Kansas due to unseasonably rich Gulf
moisture and training effects in play.
Now the other hazard of concern is freezing rain potential across
much of central/south central Kansas this period...as colder sub-
freezing air undercuts this warmer moist air aloft. The surface cold
front will continue to surge southward today with surface
temperatures dropping below freezing across parts of central Kansas
this afternoon...and ice accumulation from freezing rain/mixed with
sleet at times should begin to impact locations mainly northwest of
a Salina to Hutchinson line late this afternoon. The transition
line will sink southward tonight with the activity gradually
winding down some...however another upper level wave will produce
a second round of freezing rain across mainly south central
Kansas for Friday/Friday night. Expected surface temperatures in
the 20s would create efficient ice accumulation and the gusty
north winds would only worsen the conditions. Expected ice
accumulations across the advisory/warning areas will range from
0.10 to 0.40 inches.
Headlines could be extended into Saturday as the system is still
over the area with lingering freezing rain/sleet still possible.
Long term...(sunday through wednesday)
issued at 337 am CST Thursday Nov 26 2015
Long range models show main upper level system from the southwestern
states finally lifting northeast across The Rockies and out into
the northern plains for Sunday into Monday. This will bring one last
remaining shot of winter weather to the region...with lighter precipitation
amounts expected across mainly central Kansas and rain across
southeast Kansas. Otherwise...dry weather expected thereafter with
cooler below normal temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 1132 am CST Thursday Nov 26 2015
IFR ceilings will prevail through much of the forecast valid period
along with MVFR visibilities in rain...with a transition to freezing
rain later this afternoon and tonight for locations along and
west of the Kansas Turnpike. Accumulating ice is expected. Some
improvement is expected along the I-70 corridor by Friday morning
with most of the precipitation and lower ceilings and visibilities expected
to be across southern Kansas.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 59 28 28 27 / 100 100 80 60
Hutchinson 43 26 26 25 / 100 90 80 50
Newton 56 28 28 26 / 100 90 80 50
Eldorado 64 30 31 28 / 100 100 80 60
Winfield-kwld 63 32 32 29 / 100 100 90 70
Russell 35 22 25 22 / 90 60 40 30
Great Bend 36 23 25 22 / 90 70 60 30
Salina 40 25 26 25 / 100 90 70 30
McPherson 44 26 26 25 / 100 90 80 50
Coffeyville 65 36 37 34 / 100 100 90 70
Chanute 64 34 35 32 / 100 100 90 60
Iola 62 34 34 32 / 100 100 90 60
Parsons-kppf 65 35 36 34 / 100 100 90 70
Flash Flood Watch from 6 PM CST this evening through Friday
afternoon for ksz072-096-099-100.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 am CST Saturday
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 am CST Saturday for ksz032-033-
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 am CST
Saturday for ksz049-094-098.