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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
931 PM CDT sun Jul 5 2015

issued at 931 PM CDT sun Jul 5 2015

Isolated storms finally developed in an uncapped airmass over
extreme southeast Kansas this evening. Storms continue to remain fairly
stationary...regenerating on any outflow that develops. Do not
think the storms will last much past heating of the day
is lost and moisture transport isnt all that focused. Will keep a
isolated storm mention in for another hour or two.

Next concern will be across northern and central moisture
transport stays focused in this area overnight...ahead of the main
synoptic cold front that will push south into Kansas by Monday morning.
Current gird/forecast has probability of precipitation in central Kansas after midnight...which
looks okay...possibly a little too fast...given lack of any middle
level isentropic lift in this area. Will trim back the southern edge
of the probability of think any chances will be confined to areas north
of Highway 56 until sunrise on Monday.



Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 309 PM CDT sun Jul 5 2015

Main concern is heavy rainfall placement and duration and the
resultant precipitation totals Monday into Tuesday. A moderate to
very unstable airmass will reside along/east of the I-135 corridor
through early this evening with little if any may keep
isolated chances in some of these areas. Otherwise...the rest of
the night should be dry as we await the approaching surface cold
front on Monday. This front will move across central Kansas during
the morning and to along the Turnpike corridor by early evening.
While forcing for ascent will be weaker along the tail end of the
northern plains upper trough across Kansas...the combo of diurnal
heating/strong instability and convergence along the front should
result in the development of scattered to numerous storms by
afternoon. This looks to transition from parts of central Kansas
southeastward into south central and southeast Kansas during the
evening and overnight hours. A few marginally severe storms can be
expected before dark...with the relatively weak shear/higher cape
environment lending to downburst wind potential. Otherwise the
main threat during the evening and overnight will be locally heavy
rainfall with high precipitable water values lending to efficient
rain producers with a period of training convection possible.
Although there is some support for pushing convection further
south a bit quicker into Tuesday...will maintain relatively higher
chances across southeast Kansas with rapid transition to a dry
forecast over central Kansas. The frontal boundary and instability
will be confined across far southern Kansas and/or northern
Oklahoma into Tuesday night...before some northward migration
across the area during Wednesday. This looks to renew chances for
convection across the area as the front and returning moisture
also encounter a migratory shortwave in the weak westerly flow
aloft. Temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday will average much
below seasonal climatology.


Long term...(thursday through sunday)
issued at 309 PM CDT sun Jul 5 2015

The European model (ecmwf) remains a bit more aggressive with height rises and
building the upper ridge north into Oklahoma and southern Kansas
by the weekend. Even so...there is general support for a return
to more seasonal temperatures and lessening chances for precipitation
for most areas.



Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 556 PM CDT sun Jul 5 2015

VFR conditions expected this evening and southerly
breezes continue across the area. There is a very slim chance of an
isolated storm developing over extreme southeast Kansas before sunset...but
this chance appears too small to mention in the kcnu taf.

Otherwise the main concern will be a cold front expected to push
into central Kansas during the daytime hours on Monday...reaching krsl and
ksln by around 17-18z/Mon. Convergence and instalibity looks to
increase along this front for a chance of showers and thunderstorms
for Monday afternoon. So will mention a thunderstorms in the vicinity for both krsl/ksln by
around 18z and shift the winds to the northwest. The cold front will
continue to push southeast into south central Kansas by late Monday afternoon.
Will include a thunderstorms in the vicinity for the khut/kict tafs after 20-21z.

Expect to see a widespread shower/thunderstorm chance for Monday
evening for most taf locations. But this chance will be beyond this
taf issuance.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 74 89 65 76 / 10 70 90 40
Hutchinson 73 88 64 77 / 10 80 90 30
Newton 73 88 64 75 / 10 80 90 30
Eldorado 73 89 65 75 / 10 70 90 50
Winfield-kwld 74 91 66 76 / 10 50 90 60
Russell 72 83 62 79 / 30 70 50 10
Great Bend 72 84 62 78 / 20 80 60 10
Salina 74 87 63 79 / 20 80 80 10
McPherson 73 87 63 77 / 10 80 80 20
Coffeyville 73 90 69 77 / 10 20 80 80
Chanute 72 89 67 75 / 10 40 90 70
Iola 72 89 67 74 / 10 40 90 70
Parsons-kppf 73 89 68 76 / 10 30 90 80


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...


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