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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
634 am CDT Sat Aug 23 2014

..updated for 12z aviation discussion...

Short term...(today through monday)
issued at 335 am CDT Sat Aug 23 2014

Today-tonight:
isolated convection is possible through middle morning in central
Kansas given modest instability and decent low level moisture
transport. Next concern is dewpoints and resultant heat indices.
Based on 0000 UTC radiosonde observations...850mb is several degrees drier than
24hrs ago...and also expecting more surface wind/mixing than
yesterday. This would support a bit lower surface dewpoints...
especially given sparse rainfall yesterday. So will hold off on
advisory for now. Precipitation wise...rather impressive shortwave
is evident on water vapor near Four Corners and this will likely
aid convective development around 0000 UTC near the surface
boundary...but drier boundary layer should limit coverage ahead of
wave/front. The big question is whether models are correct
lingering precipitation all night. Suspect combo of shortwave
passage and loss of height will cause precipitation to wane late
this evening with possible redevelopment over the Flint Hills
towards daybreak.

Sun-Mon:
basically same issue throughout the period: weak front will flirt
with primary central Kansas. Will likely see isolated-scattered
convection in the vicinity of front and anywhere convective
temperatures will be reached. This will keep best chances across
central Kansas. Heat indices may flirt with advisory criteria on sun.
-Howerton

Long term...(tuesday through friday)
issued at 335 am CDT Sat Aug 23 2014

Medium range models still struggling with timing and amplitude of
longer wave moving through the plains. The 0000 UTC European model (ecmwf) has
trended even slower than its previous run...while 0000 UTC GFS is
much faster. This impacts both the timing of precipitation chances
and temperatures. GFS has shown a bit more run to run continuity...
but a fast solution in Summer doldrums seems like a long shot.
Initialization blend is probably the way to go beyond Wednesday....but
would favor warmer European model (ecmwf) for Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. Uncertainty will
force low probability of precipitation for nearly entire period. -Howerton

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 632 am CDT Sat Aug 23 2014

VFR conditions expected across the region today. The main concern
for the daytime hours will be southerly winds with gusts to 25 kts
for the afternoon hours. Could see a late afternoon diurnally
driven storm chance near the ksln and krsl taf sites...but isolated
nature of the chance makes it difficult to include any kind of thunderstorms and rain
mention in the tafs just yet. So will leave the thunderstorms and rain/thunderstorms in the vicinity mention
out for now.

Could also see a few storms that develop over the High Plains of northwest
Kansas...drift east towards the krsl taf site late tonight or by Sun
morning...but lots of uncertainty on how far east this chance will
get...so will not include a thunderstorms and rain mention for this either.

Ketcham

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 99 76 99 74 / 10 10 10 10
Hutchinson 98 75 99 73 / 20 20 20 20
Newton 98 75 99 73 / 10 20 20 20
Eldorado 98 76 98 74 / 10 10 10 10
Winfield-kwld 99 75 99 76 / 10 10 10 10
Russell 96 72 94 69 / 20 20 20 20
Great Bend 96 71 96 71 / 20 20 20 20
Salina 99 75 100 72 / 20 20 20 20
McPherson 98 74 99 72 / 20 20 20 20
Coffeyville 100 74 99 75 / 10 10 0 10
Chanute 99 74 98 75 / 10 10 0 10
Iola 98 73 98 74 / 10 10 0 10
Parsons-kppf 100 74 99 75 / 10 10 0 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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