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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
508 am CST Tuesday Jan 27 2015

..updated for 12z aviation discussion...

Synopsis...
issued at 234 am CST Tuesday Jan 27 2015

Water vapor imagery shows a potent shortwave lifting across the
eastern Seaboard with additional energy coming on shore over
Southern California. Meanwhile...strong ridging remains over The Rockies.
At the surface...weak Lee troughing stretches from eastern Montana into
northwest Kansas.

&&

Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 234 am CST Tuesday Jan 27 2015

Another record setting day in the temperature department will be
be on tap today. 850mb temperatures will actually be several degrees
warmer than what they were Monday. However...most of the forecast
area won't see the downslope winds that we saw yesterday which
will limit full heating potential. The exception will be central
Kansas where there will be some downslope and in these locations temperatures
should be in the middle and upper 70s. Even without downslope...temperatures
will probably end up close to where they were Monday just due to the
warmer 850mb temperatures. Should easily shatter most of the records
today as they are all in the 65 to 70 degree range.

The upper impulse over Southern California will lift northeast and will
move out of the central rockies and across the Central Plains for
Wednesday. The unseasonably warm temperatures will continue for Wednesday and feel
there could be a rapid rise in temperatures just ahead of the surface
trough as it slides southeast. So still feel that highs in the 70s
will be a good bet for much of the forecast area. Records are
quite a bit higher Wednesday compared to today but still feel a couple
maybe in jeopardy. The shortwave energy will track out of the
Central Plains and into the Great Lakes region by Thursday. While the
air behind this wave will be much cooler than what we've had the
last few days...it will still be close to seasonal averages for
the end of January.

Long term...(friday through monday)
issued at 234 am CST Tuesday Jan 27 2015

Medium range models have come into better agreement with regards
to the system to lift out of the Desert Southwest this weekend.
Deep isentropic lift will commence Friday across the Southern Plains
and spread north on Friday night resulting in widespread precipitation. By
Sat some of the jet energy will start to directly affect the
forecast area. While confidence is high in most of the area
seeing precipitation for the Friday night through Sun morning time
frame...confidence is much less with regards to precipitation type before
the much colder air moves in sun. At this point feel the best
chance for accumulating snows will be for locations northwest of
the Kansas Turnpike. Those with travel plans this weekend will need to
keep an eye on this storm system. While it doesn't look like a
major winter storm it looks to have the potential to cause some
travel difficulties.

Lawson

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 505 am CST Tuesday Jan 27 2015

VFR conditions will prevail for all taf sites across central and
southern Kansas for the next 24hrs. South/southwest winds will
maintain over the region as a surface trough deepens slowly across
eastern Colorado.

Jakub

&&

Fire weather...
issued at 234 am CST Tuesday Jan 27 2015

Very high grassland fire danger will overspread the entire area for
Wednesday afternoon. This will be the result of northwest-SW winds around 25 miles per hour
with gusts up to 35 miles per hour. Late afternoon rh's are expected to range
from around 25% over central Kansas to around 40% over southeast Kansas. Afternoon
wind direction will be northwest over central Kansas and SW over the southeast
corner of the state.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 73 42 73 41 / 0 0 0 0
Hutchinson 73 39 72 39 / 0 0 0 0
Newton 71 41 72 38 / 0 0 0 0
Eldorado 68 43 73 41 / 0 0 0 0
Winfield-kwld 70 43 74 40 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 75 40 71 37 / 0 0 0 0
Great Bend 75 40 72 37 / 0 0 0 0
Salina 70 40 71 37 / 0 0 0 0
McPherson 72 39 72 38 / 0 0 0 0
Coffeyville 66 42 73 40 / 0 0 0 0
Chanute 63 40 71 39 / 0 0 0 0
Iola 62 39 71 39 / 0 0 0 0
Parsons-kppf 64 41 72 39 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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