Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
634 am CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Short term...(today through friday)
issued at 330 am CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Tough forecast was made even more difficult due to the
unavailability of hrrr/00 UTC European model (ecmwf) and RUC after 0600 UTC due to
problems upstream. None of the remainder of available guidance
had much of a handle on ongoing convection. NAM was particularly
suspect...especially with initialization of 850mb moisture. Based
on 0000 UTC radiosonde observation and observational datasets...
see little reason why High Plains convection will not continue to
roll east during the day aided by warm air advection...influx of
moisture and shortwave. Effects on temperatures/winds during the
day will be difficult to pin down. Thinking that precipitation
will transition to eastern half by late afternoon...with lull in
the western half around sunset. See no reason why storms will not
develop over the High Plains again tonight and roll east.
Thursday remains problematic...as it is unclear how widespread convection
will be or low long it will linger. Large potential for error on
all facets of this forecast. Have leaned a bit towards the GFS
which was the least wrong guidance out of the box.
Have stayed the course with dry/warmer/windier conditions on Friday.
-Howerton
Long term...(saturday through tuesday)
issued at 330 am CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
The warming trend will continue into the weekend as ridge builds.
Some hint on the latest available guidance that front may sag
close enough to bring small chances for precipitation on sun/Sun
night. Not overly optimistic about these chances but in absence of
0000 UTC European model (ecmwf) will not make significant changes. Have hedged
temperatures up a bit above initialization grids based on last
warm period and best guidance at these time ranges. Temperatures in
triple digits appear probable in central Kansas by early next week.
-Howerton
&&
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 632 am CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
High clouds will float overhead this morning giving way to middle-
level cumulus clouds in the afternoon. Meanwhile southerly winds
will increase across the entire region today...as the pressure
gradient tightens up from deepening surface low pressure over
northeast Colorado. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over
western Kansas later today and move eastward into central Kansas.
Jakub
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 84 70 90 73 / 40 40 30 10
Hutchinson 87 69 91 72 / 40 50 20 10
Newton 85 68 89 72 / 40 40 30 10
Eldorado 83 69 88 73 / 40 40 40 10
Winfield-kwld 84 70 89 73 / 40 40 30 10
Russell 89 68 94 71 / 50 50 10 10
Great Bend 89 68 93 72 / 50 50 10 10
Salina 88 70 90 75 / 40 50 30 10
McPherson 87 69 90 72 / 40 50 30 10
Coffeyville 90 69 86 73 / 40 30 30 10
Chanute 88 68 84 72 / 40 30 30 10
Iola 88 68 83 71 / 40 40 30 10
Parsons-kppf 89 69 84 72 / 40 30 30 10
&&
Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
