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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
733 am CDT Tuesday may 26 2015

..updated for 12z aviation discussion...

Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 334 am CDT Tuesday may 26 2015

Active pattern is expected to continue over the next several
days...likely climaxing Friday through early Saturday. Drier and
cooler weather is then expected late weekend through middle next

A pair of upper waves phasing across the Central Plains is
currently driving lingering light-moderate rain across the region
early this morning. Anticipate brunt of this activity will exit
into Missouri by mid-morning...which is supported by short-term
hi-res models. Airmass is fairly worked-over...and will likely
take all day to dry weather is expected this morning
into at least middle- afternoon. Thereafter...isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorm development is possible...especially
generally along/south of Highway 50 in the vicinity of a weak cold
front sagging south...amidst weak upper forcing approaching from
the west. This activity could fester and/or organize into a
thunderstorm complex this evening/overnight over southern
low-level jet strengthens some and boundary stalls. Overall...not
expecting widespread severe weather given weak forcing and
weak/modest instability and deep layer shear...although a small
handful of strong to severe storms are possible...along with the
continued potential for locally very heavy rain.

Weak front/boundary is expected to slowly retreat north...which
should be the impetus for renewed isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon/evening across the
region. Additionally...there is a decent chance that High Plains
activity will move/develop east Wednesday alluded to by
previous forecast package. Like Tuesday...weak forcing/deep layer
shear will likely preclude widespread severe weather...although
expected strengthening instability may allow for a handful of
strong/severe storms through Wednesday evening...with a continued
threat for locally heavy rain. Precipitation chances will continue
Thursday...especially afternoon- a somewhat deeper
upper wave approaches from the west.

All-in-all...due to the rather disorganized nature of expected
thunderstorm activity through Thursday...will hold off on Flash
Flood Watch for now.


Long term...(friday through monday)
issued at 334 am CDT Tuesday may 26 2015

Confidence continues to increase in widespread/organized
thunderstorm activity Friday through early a strong
cold front approaches from the north and an upper wave approaches
from the west. The better forcing/shear may allow for a slightly
higher severe threat...although widespread severe weather still
appears unlikely. Potential for heavy rain will continue.

GFS/European model (ecmwf) consensus suggests drier and cooler weather from late
Saturday through middle next middle/upper ridging builds east
over mid-America...and cooler/drier Canadian high pressure drops
south over the region. Model consensus supports middle/upper flow
flattening by middle next week...which would support increasing
evening/overnight thunderstorm chances across the High
Plains activity rolls east.



Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 731 am CDT Tuesday may 26 2015

Chances for convection remain the main issue. Far less instability
than yesterday...and slightly more capping. Chance for...and the
ability to time thunderstorms is too low to mention with this
issuance. Exception is kcnu where grazing vorticity maximum may
result in some storms this evening. Kcnu also had MVFR ceilings
develop at issuance...but believe these will be short lived given
current satellite trends. -Howerton


issued at 334 am CDT Tuesday may 26 2015

Periodic episodes of thunderstorms are expected through early
this weekend...with areas of locally heavy rainfall likely. Given
the widespread saturated ground and many rivers/streams running
at bankful or higher...later shifts may need to consider
additional flood/flash flood watches. Am holding off for now given
the rather disorganized nature of the expected thunderstorm
activity through Thursday...with possibly better
organized/widespread activity for Friday-early Saturday.



issued at 334 am CDT Tuesday may 26 2015

Through may 25th...Wichita may rainfall has accumulated 11.12
inches...3rd all-time (since 1889). 2nd is 11.22 inches in
1935...and 1st is 13.14 inches in 2008. With periodic episodes of
thunderstorms expected through early this weekend...these records
will be in jeopardy. Salina and Chanute also have a strong
potential of breaking into the top-10 wettest may's on record.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 80 61 82 65 / 30 40 30 50
Hutchinson 80 58 82 64 / 30 30 30 60
Newton 79 59 81 64 / 30 30 30 50
Eldorado 80 60 81 64 / 30 40 30 50
Winfield-kwld 81 61 83 65 / 40 40 30 50
Russell 79 57 82 63 / 10 10 30 60
Great Bend 79 57 81 63 / 20 10 30 60
Salina 79 58 83 64 / 20 20 30 60
McPherson 79 58 82 64 / 20 20 30 60
Coffeyville 81 63 83 65 / 30 40 30 30
Chanute 81 62 83 65 / 30 40 30 30
Iola 80 61 82 64 / 30 40 30 30
Parsons-kppf 81 62 82 65 / 30 40 30 30


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...


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