Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
732 am CDT Monday may 20 2013
Update...
issued at 732 am CDT Monday may 20 2013
Thunderstorms and rain cluster has rapidly developed over southeast Kansas from southern Wilson to
extreme NE Cowley County. The strongest cells are likely to
produce hail up to 2 inches in diameter. As such have fine-tuned
probability of precipitation/wx/qpf to address this facet of the inherited forecast I.E.
To change weather descriptor to "sct". Remainder of inherited forecast
is unchanged.
&&
Short term...(today through wednesday)
issued at 309 am CDT Monday may 20 2013
Focus will be on severe weather potential this afternoon and tonight
in southeastern Kansas.
An upper level low will continue to circulate over the northern
plains today into Tuesday before shifting eastward Wednesday. A
Pacific cold front is expected to stall across eastern Kansas into
western Oklahoma. Highs in the low 80s and surface dewpoints
recovering to the middle 60s to low 70s will support MLCAPE values of
2000-3000 j/kg southeast of the front in the warm sector. A middle-
upper jet streak will round the base of the upper trough...moving
across southeast Kansas and Oklahoma this afternoon into this evening.
This will result in southwesterly deep layer shear vectors of
50-65 knots in the warm sector. Given strong enough insolation
occurs...organized severe thunderstorms should initiate toward middle
afternoon along/east of the front. The main threats look to be
large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat appears lesser
than Sunday PM/eve...with helicity and other tornado parameters
prognosticated to be higher to the south and east of southeastern Kansas.
For tonight...the right rear quadrant of an upper jet streak will
target southwest MO into eastern OK...and perhaps far southeast
Kansas. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible in far southeast
Kansas...with a higher threat to the south and east of there. Storm mergers
and a gradual decrease in instability should allow severe weather
to wane by midnight.
Thunderstorm chances should end in the southeast later Tuesday into
Tuesday night as the upper trough and front push east.
Jmc
Long term...(thursday through sunday)
issued at 309 am CDT Monday may 20 2013
Middle-upper ridging is prognosticated to build across the Central Plains
during the period with upper troughing over the western states.
Low-level moisture/instability will begin surging northward across
the Central Plains late in the week into the weekend. Will maintain
low probabilities for thunderstorms during the period...with some
isentropic lift indicated and the possibility for storms to move
east off the High Plains. Although a strong storm or two will be
possible from the degree of instability...the pattern does not look
as favorable for widespread severe weather at least until the trough
out west begins moving eastward. Gradual warming temperatures appear
on track.
Jmc
&&
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 732 am CDT Monday may 20 2013
Scattered thunderstorms and rain have quickly redeveloped over southeast Kansas along elevated front
extending from NE Kansas to the Texas Panhandle. The cluster has developed
from southeast Greenwood to northwest Elk County & is likely to produce golfball
size hail as it expands further along the boundary as the morning.
The cluster poses greatest risk to kcnu & will have to update this
taf to assign "vcts" until ~17z. Still anticipate strong-severe thunderstorms and rain to
further develop over primarily southeast Kansas late this afternoon with
coverage increasing this evening. The other 4 tafs to maintain VFR
status for duration of 20/12z edition.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 82 55 77 55 / 20 20 10 10
Hutchinson 80 53 76 54 / 20 20 10 10
Newton 81 54 76 54 / 20 20 10 10
Eldorado 82 55 77 55 / 30 30 10 10
Winfield-kwld 84 58 78 55 / 40 40 10 10
Russell 78 50 73 52 / 20 20 10 10
Great Bend 78 51 74 53 / 20 20 10 10
Salina 79 53 75 52 / 20 20 10 10
McPherson 80 53 76 53 / 20 20 10 10
Coffeyville 82 65 79 57 / 80 80 50 10
Chanute 82 62 78 56 / 60 70 30 10
Iola 82 62 78 56 / 50 60 20 10
Parsons-kppf 82 63 78 57 / 70 80 40 10
&&
Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
Es
