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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1153 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014

..updated for 06z aviation discussion...

Short term...(this afternoon through tonight)
issued at 322 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014

Forecast challenges focus around precipitation chances through
Friday night/early Saturday.

Middle-afternoon analysis indicates an anomalously deep upper trough
over the central rockies...with weak/subtle disturbances ejecting
northeast across the High Plains. Plume of rich monsoonal middle-
level moisture is streaming northeast from the southern rockies
into the southern/Central Plains. At the surface...a confluence
zone was draped from northwest Kansas southeast into south- central
Kansas. Isolated to scattered shower/thunderstorms have recently
erupted across central Kansas...amidst rich low-middle level moisture.

Anticipate widespread showers/thunderstorms to erupt across
western portions of Kansas...as large scale ascent continues to
overspread the region from the west. Modest-strong instability in
concert with around 30 kts of deep layer shear should promote
strong to marginally severe storms...which could clip far
northwest portions of wichita's forecast area (barton-Russell-
Lincoln counties) this evening...although suspect greatest
coverage will remain over western/northwest Kansas and Nebraska
overnight in zone of strongest low-middle level warm/moist advection.
Furthermore...high precipitable waters and relatively skinny convective available potential energy
will promote locally very heavy rainfall with the strongest
storms.

Adk

Long term...(thursday through wednesday)
issued at 322 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014

As central rockies upper trough continues to advance
east...amidst rich low-middle level moisture...thinking better
shower/thunderstorm chances will continue to spread east across
the region. Anticipate the highest probabilities across wichita's
forecast area will be Thursday afternoon through
Friday...immediately ahead of the approaching upper trough...and
also as a weak frontal zone advances east across the region. Poor
middle-level rates should limit widespread severe weather
potential...although strong/marginally severe storms are possible
given strength of upper winds and approaching upper trough. Once
again...locally very heavy rain is possible given rich subtropical
middle-level moisture plume. Shower/thunderstorm focus should shift
into eastern/southeast Kansas for Friday/Friday night.

All-in-all...given high precipitable waters...for this whole
event thinking widespread rain amounts of 0.50-1.00" is a good
bet...with locally higher amounts.

Late Sat night/early Sunday...GFS and to some degrees the European model (ecmwf)
indicates potential for a few showers/thunderstorms in a zone of
increasing 700 warm/moist advection.

Next shower/thunderstorm potential arrives for Sunday
evening...as a Stout cold front approaches from the northwest. GFS
and European model (ecmwf) both stall this front across southern/southeast Kansas Monday-
Tuesday...which could spell an active few days over mainly the
southern half of Kansas.

Adk

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1153 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014

Thunderstorms have stayed north of the taf forecast area...north
of krsl/ksln this evening. However short-term high res guidance
indicates that krsl/ksln and khut could see some development
during the overnight hours and have put thunderstorms in the vicinity and tempo groups at
those locations to account for it. Think activity will become more
widespread during the day Thursday and later Thursday
evening/night. Still maintaining VFR but if storms center
themselves over a taf site...ceiling and visibilities could be
degraded to MVFR/IFR. Winds will be southeasterly tonight and
southerly during the day.

Billings Wright

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 73 90 69 86 / 30 40 60 50
Hutchinson 73 86 67 86 / 40 50 60 50
Newton 72 88 68 85 / 30 40 60 50
Eldorado 73 91 69 85 / 20 30 60 50
Winfield-kwld 73 92 70 87 / 20 30 60 50
Russell 69 86 65 85 / 50 50 60 40
Great Bend 70 86 65 86 / 50 50 60 40
Salina 73 87 68 85 / 40 50 60 50
McPherson 72 86 67 85 / 40 50 60 50
Coffeyville 72 96 71 87 / 20 10 40 60
Chanute 72 94 70 86 / 20 10 40 60
Iola 72 94 69 85 / 20 10 40 60
Parsons-kppf 72 95 70 87 / 20 10 40 60

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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