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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1248 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2014

..updated for 18z aviation discussion...

Synopsis...
issued at 355 am CDT Sat Jul 12 2014

As was expected early yesterday morning a weak nearly east/west
oriented middle-level was draped across the South Dakota/Nebraska
border while a cold front draped from eastern Nebraska through
southeast Colorado to northwest New Mexico was approaching the
Nebraska/Kansas border. An mesoscale convective system resided north of the front over
Nebraska. Across Kansas weak southerly flow was keeping
temperatures in the 70s with the warmer temperatures residing
across central Kansas where extensive cirriform debris was
spreading east over these areas.

&&

Short term...(today through monday)
issued at 355 am CDT Sat Jul 12 2014

Today:
with the southeast drifting cold front remaining northwest of kict country a hot
day would result for the neighborhood with highs in the middle 90s.
Thunderstorms developing along & north of the front would therefore
remain northwest-north of the neighborhood from Nebraska to northwest Kansas
although a few thunderstorms may encroach upon the northwest corridor late
this afternoon.

Tonight-Sunday night:
a 2nd & somewhat stronger NE-SW oriented middle-level shortwave that
should extend across Nebraska will kick the cold front southeast across
Kansas tonight & Sunday as it pushes east/southeast toward...then across...
the middle MS valley. Lift is feeble & as such coverage thunderstorms
should be scattered with the greater coverage occurring over
eastern Nebraska...northeast Kansas & northern Missouri where lift
would be a little more pronounced. With the middle-level shortwave
gradually stretching further SW across western Kansas & southeast
Colorado the cold front would continue to push southeast across the Kansas
Oklahoma border Sun afternoon. As such scattered thunderstorms will
will shift S/southeast across south-central & southeast Kansas Sunday
afternoon & night. Feeble lift dictates keeping probability of precipitation ~20% across
the neighborhood on Sunday. However...a pronounced NE-SW oriented
upper-deck wave that'll surge southeast across Saskatchewan & Manitoba
will undergo rapid cyclogenesis over the Manitoba/Ontario border
Sunday afternoon. As the cyclone surges southeast over the Great Lakes the
chances of thunderstorms would increase with the greatest chances
occurring across southern Kansas where Richer moisture will pool
along & north of the cold front.

Monday & Monday night:
with the extremely intense cyclone wound up like an alarm clock
as it begins to gyrate over the Great Lakes the associated upper
wave would surge southeast across the upper & middle-MS valley on Monday. This
would bring more thunderstorms into the Kansas neighborhood. As the
upepr wave surges southeast over the Ohio Valley thunderstorms would shift
south over the Southern Plains Monday night.

Long term...(tuesday through friday)
issued at 355 am CDT Sat Jul 12 2014

Tuesday-wednesday:
yet another middle-level shortwave will develop over the northern
rockies & move southeast toward the OK & Texas panhandles. Scattered
thunderstorms are still expected to develop over the Western Plains
with a few reaching the western half of kict country. This scenario
was depicted the past 2 nights. As the weak middle-level shortwave
continues its slow southeast journey across the New Mexico/Texas border
any chances of thunderstorms would likewise shift S/southeast across the
Southern Plains Wednesday night. Much cooler air will spread S across the
neighborhood Wednesday & Wednesday night.

Thursday-friday:
quiet weather slated for all areas on Thursday with a warming trend
occuring on Friday as southerly flow ensues in response to a
developing surface trough along the Front Range.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2014

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. The only concern
will be a chance of late evening convection over northwest Kansas venturing
east-southeast...possibly affecting central Kansas late this evening.
Think a chance exists of this convection getting into the krsl/ksln
taf sites...so will go with a thunderstorms in the vicinity for now. Confidence isnt high
enough to go with a tempo group just yet.

This convection will be along a cold frontal boundary that will
begin to push south across the forecast area late tonight into early
on sun. As this front pushes south...expect a wind shift to the north-northwest
initially for krsl/ksln by around 06-09z and by 12-14z for khut and
kict.

Also...do not have enough confidence in how far south the convective
chances in central Kansas will get. As elevated instability lags well
behind the front. So will not include a thunderstorms in the vicinity mention further south
for the kict/khut or kcnu taf.

Ketcham

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 95 72 92 70 / 10 20 20 30
Hutchinson 94 72 89 70 / 10 30 20 20
Newton 93 71 89 68 / 10 20 20 20
Eldorado 93 72 91 69 / 10 10 20 20
Winfield-kwld 95 74 95 72 / 10 10 20 30
Russell 96 70 89 70 / 10 50 20 20
Great Bend 95 71 88 69 / 10 40 20 20
Salina 96 71 89 69 / 10 40 20 20
McPherson 95 72 89 69 / 10 30 20 20
Coffeyville 96 75 96 73 / 0 10 20 30
Chanute 95 73 93 71 / 0 10 20 30
Iola 94 73 92 70 / 0 10 20 30
Parsons-kppf 95 74 94 72 / 0 10 20 30

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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