Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
508 PM CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014

..updated for 00z aviation discussion...

Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 303 PM CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014

Tonight-Thu: clipper type system continues to make progress across MO
at this time...with lots of blustery cold advection for most of the
plains in its wake. This will lead to a chilly night across most
of the region tonight as winds begin to diminish and subsidence
clears out most of the cloud cover.

Not expecting any travel concerns tonight into Thursday...as atmosphere
across the plains remains very dry.

Expect a chilly start for Thanksgiving morning...as the weak surface
ridge slowly works its way into MO. Thursday will the be transition
day...as northwest flow beginning to become move zonal by late Thursday into
Friday. This will lead to increasing warm advection across most of the
plains states. This gradual warmup will start over western Kansas on Thursday
afternoon...with some areas in central Kansas reaching the low 50s.

Friday-Sat: the warmup will really gets going for Friday into Sat...as
southwesterly winds and west winds aloft lead to nice downslope
conditions. This warm advection and zonal flow will push 850h temperatures
into 12-16 degree c range with surface temperatures into the lower 60s.

Ketcham

Long term...(sunday through wednesday)
issued at 303 PM CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014

Sun: the tricky day of the Holiday weekend will be on Sunday...as
both the European model (ecmwf) and GFS show a rather vigorous shortwave moving
across the northern plains...which will help drive another Arctic
cold front south into the plains for Sun morning. This frontal
boundary will push across Kansas for the morning hours sun....which will
produce a wide range of temperatures across the forecast area. The
front is expected to arrive soon enough in central Kansas to produce
steady or falling temperatures for most of the day...with temperatures in southeast Kansas
possibly again reaching the low 60s before they begin to fall in the
afternoon. It certainly will lead to a blustery afternoon with
falling temperatures in most locations.

Not alot of moisture will be located ahead of this boundary on
sun...so expecting mainly a dry frontal passage. There are some
hints of Gulf moisture possibly reaching southeast Kansas...along or ahead of
the frontal boundary. This could lead to a slight chance of showers/
or some light freezing rain across extreme southeast Kansas for late Sun
night.

Mon: cold advection and below normal temperatures will be the story for
the start of next week...as this cold airmass pushes across the
region.

Tuesday-Wed: some uncertainty on how the middle of the week will play
out. With the GFS showing the next significant weather maker making
its way into the plains for Tuesday night through Wednesday as middle level flow
begins to shift to the SW...which will allow Gulf moisture to begin
to stream back into the plains for Tue-Wed. The European model (ecmwf) on the other
hand suggests a slowly return to the SW flow for the middle of the
week with dry conditions. For now consensus is to keep some low
probability of precipitation in eastern sections.

Ketcham

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 505 PM CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014

VFR conditions are expected during this forecast valid period.
Subsidence will allow for gradual clearing of middle-level clouds
tonight and mostly sunny skies Thursday. Surface high pressure
will build in from the north tonight...leading to diminishing
winds. As the high shifts east Thursday with Lee troughing
developing over the High Plains...winds will become southerly with
some gusts of 20-25 knots in central Kansas.

Jmc

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 24 48 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
Hutchinson 22 49 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
Newton 23 46 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
Eldorado 25 49 35 61 / 0 0 0 0
Winfield-kwld 24 48 35 61 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 20 50 29 66 / 0 0 0 0
Great Bend 22 52 32 66 / 0 0 0 0
Salina 22 48 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
McPherson 22 47 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
Coffeyville 25 48 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
Chanute 23 46 31 58 / 0 0 0 0
Iola 23 45 30 58 / 0 0 0 0
Parsons-kppf 22 47 31 60 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations