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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
600 am CST Sat Feb 13 2016

..updated for 12z aviation discussion...

Short term...(today through monday)
issued at 259 am CST Sat Feb 13 2016

Main challenge remains chances for very light precipitation Sunday morning.
Cold/dry surface advection continues early this morning with the
back edge of middle-level clouds clearing from west to east across the
area. The spirit of the going forecast is on track with maximums well
below seasonal climatology today and mainly in the 30s. An upper trough will
move southeast across the northern plains tonight...with low level
isentropic lift and moisture advection occurring over central and
eastern Kansas ahead of the associated surface front. A conditional
chance for some very light pre-frontal precipitation will be maintained in
the forecast...dependent on sufficient saturation within the low
level airmass Sunday morning. If so...precipitation type looks to be mainly
drizzle or freezing drizzle with surface temperatures near the
critical freezing mark for a few hours. Frontal timing near dawn
across central Kansas may also support transient freezing fog if the
near surface moistens sufficiently along the boundary. Otherwise
dry and milder weather is expected in the wake of the front over
most areas by Sunday afternoon. A trailing shortwave upper trough will
drop southeast across the Central Plains Sunday night which will
amplify the upper trough over the Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys
on Monday. A few sprinkles or flurries may occur on Sunday night
with dry and unseasonably mild weather on Monday.


Long term...(tuesday through friday)
issued at 259 am CST Sat Feb 13 2016

The main challenge next week remains daily temperature trends
and how warm to go by Thursday. It still appears at least one more
shortwave will drop southeast into the mean eastern Continental U.S. Upper trough
on Tuesday...before broad ridging aloft translates eastward over
the plains during the middle-week periods. Shallow cooler air could
at least temporarily affect the area late Tuesday into early
Wednesday....however by Thursday the European model (ecmwf) and GFS continue to
support a significantly warmer airmass advecting into central and
eastern Kansas...with temperatures much above seasonal climatology.



Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 535 am CST Sat Feb 13 2016

Challenging aviation forecast this morning as multiple rounds of
lowering ceilings are expected. The first is expected across
central Kansas...primarily at krsl where MVFR ceilings will be
possible early this morning. Forecast soundings show some
moistening below 1000ft...however confidence was not high enough
to include ceilings that low this morning but did include mentions
of scatter 900-1000ft clouds to hint towards the possibility. This
afternoon winds will gradually veer from east to south-southeast
with some locations seeing the potential for gusty winds with an
increasing pressure gradient and afternoon mixing. This
evening...a second round of lowering ceilings will occur as
moisture transport and warm air advection increase...primarily
across south central and southeast Kansas. Therefore have trended
things towards the MVFR/IFR Route towards the end of this taf
period...but will allow subsequent tafs to fine tune the timing.



Fire weather...
issued at 259 am CST Sat Feb 13 2016

Grassland fire danger is expected to remain low to moderate
through the weekend. However a warming trend will commence
next week with unseasonably warm air and gusty surface winds
elevating the grassland fire danger...with Thursday looking to
be the biggest day of concern.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 38 31 54 33 / 0 10 10 10
Hutchinson 37 29 54 32 / 0 10 10 10
Newton 36 29 52 33 / 0 10 10 10
Eldorado 37 30 53 33 / 0 20 20 10
Winfield-kwld 40 33 54 34 / 0 20 20 10
Russell 37 26 52 31 / 10 10 0 10
Great Bend 38 27 53 31 / 10 10 0 10
Salina 36 27 52 32 / 0 10 10 10
McPherson 37 28 53 32 / 0 10 10 10
Coffeyville 40 31 50 33 / 0 10 30 10
Chanute 36 28 49 32 / 0 10 30 10
Iola 34 27 48 31 / 0 10 30 10
Parsons-kppf 38 30 50 33 / 0 10 30 10


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...


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