Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1130 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

..updated for 06z aviation discussion...

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 226 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

Quiet weather is expected through Sunday night...as low-level
high pressure ridge shifts east across the region. After a chilly
start to the day...increasing south/southwest flow should allow
Sunday temperatures to warm to near 40 degrees.

Much colder air should begin to filter south across the region by
Monday afternoon/evening...as an airmass with Arctic origins
approaches from the north. Temperatures will drop from the 30s and
40s Monday to the single digits and teens by early Tuesday
morning...with wind chills dropping as low as -15 degrees across
central Kansas due to Stout north winds in wake of the cold front.
Shortwave energy progressing atop the cold air should create
enough lift for areas of light snow or flurries Monday afternoon
and night over mainly central Kansas...with intermittent flurries
likely lingering through Tuesday west of the Kansas Turnpike. Snow
accumulations will remain light...with up to one-half inch
possible generally northwest of Hutchinson to Salina. Continued
cold advection and clouds will keep Tuesday highs in the teens and
20s...with Tuesday night lows dropping into the single digits and
low teens. Record cold temperatures will likely be difficult to
reach due to lack of appreciable snow cover.

Adk

Long term...(wednesday through saturday)
issued at 226 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

After a chilly Wednesday...temperatures should moderate into the
30s by Thursday...as southerly flow increases ahead of the next
upper trough approaching from the west. This next system has the
potential to bring meaningful precipitation to the
central/Southern Plains anytime from the Thursday night through
Saturday time period...as the upper low ejects northeast out of
the southwest Continental U.S.. however...ensemble and model spread remains
quite large regarding timing...amplitude and placement of the
trough...so narrowing down specifics is nearly impossible at this
time. Latest operational GFS would suggest a decent winter event
across the Kansas region...while the European model (ecmwf) keeps all precipitation
well south/southeast of the region. Stay tuned for later
forecasts.

Adk

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1130 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

Surface high pressure will continue to slide over the region with
light and variable winds becoming southerly by Sunday. VFR
conditions will prevail.

Billings Wright

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 15 41 21 39 / 0 0 0 10
Hutchinson 11 41 20 36 / 0 0 0 10
Newton 16 40 21 37 / 0 0 0 10
Eldorado 16 41 22 38 / 0 0 0 10
Winfield-kwld 16 41 22 40 / 0 0 0 10
Russell 12 40 18 27 / 0 0 0 30
Great Bend 12 39 19 30 / 0 0 0 20
Salina 15 41 21 33 / 0 0 0 20
McPherson 14 40 20 35 / 0 0 0 10
Coffeyville 19 40 23 43 / 10 0 0 10
Chanute 18 39 22 41 / 0 0 0 10
Iola 18 39 22 40 / 0 0 0 10
Parsons-kppf 18 40 23 42 / 0 0 0 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations