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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
332 am CDT Monday Apr 21 2014

Synopsis...
issued at 330 am CDT Monday Apr 21 2014

Water vapor imagery shows the upper low situated over northern OK
and is continuing to track east. Regional radars show some
smaller circulations around the area...one over central Kansas with
another over north central OK. At the surface a weak cold front
extends from eastern South Dakota into SW Nebraska.

&&

Short term...(today through wednesday)
issued at 330 am CDT Monday Apr 21 2014

Scattered showers and isolated storms associated with the upper low
have been floating around the area overnight and am expecting
these to continue this morning. There should be a slight increase
in coverage this afternoon as pockets of sunshine provide enough
instability to get more organized clusters of showers/storms. The
most likely area for the better coverage will be east of I-135. By
the early evening hours the upper low will be over the Ozark
region pushing the better precipitation chances east of the forecast
area.

Even with some clouds and precipitation around...highs today will still
be able to climb to above normal temperatures with most reaching the middle
to upper 70s.

By Tuesday morning an upper trough will be coming on shore over
northern California. Over the plains the surface ridge will push east on
Tuesday and by the afternoon hours will stretch across the Mississippi
Valley. This setup will keep above normal temperatures in place across
the region for Tuesday. The shortwave trough will swing across The
Rockies Tuesday night. A few storms will be possible west of I-135
late Tuesday night as moisture transport and warm advection increases
in the 850-700mb layer. Central and northeast Kansas look to have the
best shot to see some of these storms.

Shortwave energy is expected to move out across the High Plains on
Wednesday and across the plains for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. By late
Wednesday afternoon the dryline is expected to be well west of the
forecast area...out over western Kansas. Storms are expected to
develop late Wednesday afternoon along the dryline over western Kansas as
the large scale lift overspreads the dryline. The highest
confidence for initiation at this point would be near the triple
point over west-central/northwest Kansas where convergence will be
maximized. The best chance for daytime convection on Wednesday in our
forecast area will be for something to develop with the strong middle
level Theta-E surge with areas west of I-135 having the best
chance to experience these storms if they develop.

Once the storms develop late Wednesday afternoon they should track east
and southeast overnight aided by the strong middle level moisture
transport associated with the upper wave. In addition...a cold
front is expected to surge through the area Wednesday night and should
be over southeast Kansas by 12z Thursday. While confidence is high that Wednesday night
is our best shot at seeing storms...confidence is low on which
areas will be impacted due to uncertainty on where storms will
initially develop Wednesday afternoon/evening.

Long term...(thursday through sunday)
issued at 330 am CDT Monday Apr 21 2014

The front is expected to be very progressive and by Thursday afternoon
will be east of the forecast area. After this time period the GFS
and European model (ecmwf) start to diverge on their solution. The GFS is deeper
with the shortwave over the upper Mississippi Valley/western Great
Lakes on Friday which leads to the cold front making it further south
on Friday night compared to the European model (ecmwf). Even though both models bring
another trough out across The Rockies on Sat...the GFS keeps much
of the precipitation further south due to the baroclinic zone being
situated further south compared to the European model (ecmwf). While the timing of
the wave is in better agreement than last night's runs...the GFS
does close the upper low off while the European model (ecmwf) keeps it an open
wave. Regardless of which model verifies...the Sat-sun time frame
looks unsettled across the plains.

Lawson

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1144 PM CDT sun Apr 20 2014

Upper level wave will move eastward across the region for tonight
into Monday morning...with widely scattered showers possible as a
cold front slides southward across Kansas during the day on Monday. Otherwise
some increasing low level moisture could give way to MVFR ceilings
during the overnight and early morning hours. Winds will switch
around to the north behind the frontal boundary.

Jakub



&&

Fire weather...
issued at 330 am CDT Monday Apr 21 2014

A weak cold front is expected to slide across the area today and
will flip winds around to the north for all areas by the late
afternoon hours. The highest wind speeds today will be over
central Kansas where gusts to 20 miles per hour will be possible. For Tuesday...winds
will flip around to the east and eventually southeast with gusts
in the 20 to 25 miles per hour range possible west of I-135. Meanwhile...east
of I-135 winds will remain relatively light. The stronger winds
over central Kansas will result in very high fire danger.

Wednesday will be a dangerous burning day as very strong south winds
overspread the entire area. Sustained speeds in the 30-35 miles per hour
range will be common with gusts approaching 45 miles per hour...especially
for areas along and west of I-135. Extreme fire danger will be a
possibility over parts of the area on Wednesday afternoon.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 76 46 77 54 / 30 10 0 0
Hutchinson 76 46 77 54 / 30 0 10 10
Newton 75 46 75 53 / 30 0 0 10
Eldorado 74 47 75 53 / 30 10 0 0
Winfield-kwld 76 48 77 53 / 30 10 0 0
Russell 77 45 78 55 / 20 0 10 20
Great Bend 76 45 78 55 / 20 0 10 20
Salina 77 44 77 53 / 30 0 0 10
McPherson 76 45 77 54 / 30 0 0 10
Coffeyville 75 49 76 48 / 60 20 0 0
Chanute 74 47 74 48 / 60 20 0 0
Iola 73 47 73 48 / 60 20 0 0
Parsons-kppf 75 48 75 48 / 60 20 0 0

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$