Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
701 am CDT Tuesday Apr 21 2015

..updated for 12z aviation discussion...

Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 329 am CDT Tuesday Apr 21 2015


One area of middle level lift/moisture will scoot across southeast
Kansas this morning...and another clipping OK border. Thinking mainly
sprinkles given relatively dry low levels in southeast Kansas...with small
probability of precipitation over S central Kansas. Soundings roughly east of I-35 pretty
much uncapped by 2100 UTC...with very respectable deep layer
shear. Not much focus for convection and relatively dry soundings.
Will keep small probability of precipitation going through sunset for a few diurnally
enhanced showers/thunderstorms. A couple of strong storms with
small hail/gusty winds possible given thermodynamics...but
organized severe threat looks low. Then after a brief lull in the
evening...appears that front backdooring its way across the area
will bring another chance of precipitation after midnight.
Temperatures today should warm nicely given downslope flow.
Temperatures tonight should fall more in the north where cold air
advection will occur longer.

location of boundary and energy aloft west become the key factors
in forecast. A bit concerned that the convection ongoing at the
start of this period could force boundary/precipitation further
into OK...leaving much of the area dry later on Wednesday. For continuity/
collaboration...will at least keep small probability of precipitation going Wednesday afternoon
along OK border. Chances should increase Wednesday night as low level
flow increases...pushing deeper moisture north. Again northern
extent of precipitation is a challenge...and prefer the more
southern solution of European model (ecmwf). Precipitation chances will likely
continue into Thursday...especially across southern/western edges of
forecast area where best low level baroclinicity/deeper moisture
will be located. Maximum temperatures will be highly dependent on
amount of clouds/ potential for large errors in
the temperature forecasts is high. Do expect some/more sunshine
in northern sections to offset potential cold air north of front.

Long term...(friday through monday)
issued at 329 am CDT Tuesday Apr 21 2015

Medium range models are in a bit better agreement than 24 hours
ago...but given the run to run variations of the last 3 runs of the
European model (ecmwf)...not very confident that the current runs are really any
more correct than yesterday. That said...the consistency does allow
for a better relationship between model mass fields and
initializationgrids. The key takeaways are chances for
precipitation still look good for Friday/Friday night with wave probably
moving through...and then a bit drier in the middle of the
weekend. Another wave may be moving through on sun...but given
near term issues...this is pretty questionable as well. Went along
with initialization for temperatures given the uncertainty this
period. Will likely be a bit cooler when it does rain and warmer
when it does not...with current forecast closer to an average
temperature throughout the period. -Howerton


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 701 am CDT Tuesday Apr 21 2015

Multiple chances for precipitation today. The first is exiting
this morning with some middle-level clouds and scattered sprinkles.
This is not impacting any terminals. Later today there will be a
chance for some diurnally driven thunderstorms and then tonight a
cold front will move through the region with another chance of
showers. Have not put any precipitation in the aviation forecast
at this time due to the expected scattered nature and lateness in
the taf period...will allow later shifts to address. Winds will be
mainly westerly through the day becoming northerly to
northeasterly as the cold front moves through tonight. Winds will
be briefly gusty behind the front before subsiding. Clouds with
the front are expected to be just above VFR criteria.

Billings Wright


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 74 46 65 48 / 10 20 20 30
Hutchinson 73 43 64 46 / 10 20 20 20
Newton 72 43 64 45 / 10 20 20 20
Eldorado 72 45 64 45 / 20 20 20 20
Winfield-kwld 73 49 65 48 / 20 30 30 40
Russell 72 40 64 44 / 10 10 10 10
Great Bend 73 41 65 46 / 10 10 10 20
Salina 73 41 63 43 / 10 10 10 10
McPherson 73 42 64 45 / 10 20 10 20
Coffeyville 73 49 65 47 / 20 30 30 30
Chanute 72 45 64 44 / 20 30 20 20
Iola 71 44 63 44 / 30 20 20 10
Parsons-kppf 72 47 64 46 / 20 30 30 30


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations