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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
634 am CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014

..updated for 12z aviation discussion...

Synopsis...
issued at 313 am CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014

Sharp upper trough currently extends through the northeast Continental U.S.
With another shortwave coming on shore over the Pacific northwest.
At the surface...high pressure is situated over the Ozark region
with Lee troughing strengthening over eastern Colorado/far western
Nebraska.

&&

Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 313 am CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014

Fog is expected this morning across southern portions of the
forecast area. Will continue to monitor for possible dense fog
advisory. Just like yesterday...feel confident that any fog will
burn off between 9 and 10 am. Above normal temperatures are expected to
continue for both today and tonight as return flow increases
across the plains.

The shortwave coming on shore now over the northwest is expected to
continue tracking east and will extend from the northern rockies
into the High Plains by 12z Wednesday. During the day Wednesday the bulk of
the showers and storms will affect areas west of I-135 and will
overspread the rest of the area Wednesday night. While confidence is
high most of the forecast area will get wet from Wednesday afternoon-
early Thursday morning...also confident we are not looking at high
rainfall amounts...with most locations picking up less than a half
inch. Even with clouds and rain...temperatures will remain above normal
for Wednesday and Thursday.

Long term...(friday through monday)
issued at 313 am CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014

The main theme through these extended periods will be continued
above normal temperatures and dry conditions.

There is good agreement between the GFS and European model (ecmwf) that upper
ridging will build over southern rockies into the southern High
Plains for Friday and Sat. 850mb temperatures from both medium models are
expected to be in the 18-21 c range which is several degrees
warmer than they have been over the last couple of days.
Therefore...feel that highs on both Friday and Sat will be well in
the 80s with upper 80s not out of the question. By sun some
shortwave energy is expected to come on shore over the western
Continental U.S. And across The Rockies Sun night into morning morning. The
GFS leaves it an open wave while the European model (ecmwf) cuts off the upper low
over the desert SW. Will go ahead and leave mention of precipitation out
for Monday until things become more clear.

Lawson

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 633 am CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014

For ict-sln-hut-rsl-cnu...still anticipating the possibility of
patchy fog through about 14z...especially for cnu...where patchy
and short-lived MVFR to potentially IFR visibilities are possible.
Otherwise...increasing low-level moisture will lead to scattered-broken VFR
ceilings around 4000 feet above ground level spreading northeast across the region
today. Southeast winds will increase to around 10 kts by this
afternoon as low pressure strengthens over the western High
Plains.

Adk

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 81 57 79 58 / 10 10 10 50
Hutchinson 79 56 79 56 / 10 10 20 50
Newton 77 56 75 57 / 0 10 10 50
Eldorado 78 56 79 58 / 0 10 10 50
Winfield-kwld 79 57 78 58 / 10 10 10 40
Russell 77 56 76 52 / 0 10 40 60
Great Bend 77 55 76 52 / 0 10 30 60
Salina 78 56 77 56 / 0 0 20 60
McPherson 78 56 76 56 / 0 10 20 60
Coffeyville 77 52 76 56 / 0 10 10 40
Chanute 76 51 75 56 / 0 0 10 50
Iola 76 51 75 56 / 0 0 10 50
Parsons-kppf 76 52 76 56 / 0 10 10 40

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...none.

&&

$$

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