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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
957 PM CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

..updated for 00z aviation discussion...

Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 240 PM CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

Upper ridge will continue to remain stationary across the
Midwest for at least the rest of the work week. This will lead to
the Lee trough remaining to west of the forecast area...with warm
and breezy south winds across the area. This will lead to above
normal temperatures remaining across the area at least through
Friday...and possibly Sat. With the Lee trough remaining well west-northwest of
the area...diurnally driven isolated shower/storm chances will
remain to the northwest of the area each afternoon. Expect some of this
convection to drift towards central Kansas during the evening hours
before diminishing...due to a warmer elevated mixed layer. But will
leave central Kansas dry for now.

Little change is expected in the thermal temperature fields for the next
few days...with 850h and 1000-850h thickness values suggesting temperatures
in the upper 90s in central Kansas and low-middle 90s elsewhere. (Almost 5
to 7 degrees above normal). So a persistence forecast is the way to
go. If previous days are any indication... then current guidance
has been showing a slight cool bias...so will go with the warmest
GFS guidance numbers for maximum temperatures.

Ketcham

Long term...(sunday through wednesday)
issued at 240 PM CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

The upper ridge looks to shift a little further east for
the end of the Holiday weekend...as a shortwave pushes into the
Pacific northwest. This shift will lead to the dry and warm pattern
continuing into Sat and for most locations for sun as well...as
most of the plains remains under the influence of the upper ridge.
A shortwave in the northwest US begins to push into the northern plains for
Sun afternoon into Sun night. As this shortwave pushes east into
the Dakotas...the Lee trough over northwest Kansas will gradually move a
little closer to central Kansas by sun evening/night. This will lead
to shower and thunderstorm chances increasing some over central
Kansas. Middle level warm advection ahead of this shortwave may also lead
to some morning showers/storms over central Kansas as early as Sun
morning.

Medium range model solutions have this front/trough pushing south
across the forecast area as a cold front for Sun night. This will
lead to shower/thunderstorm chances increasing across most of the
forecast area for Sun night through Monday as the boundary stalls out
or becomes stationary across southern Kansas.

The medium range models both are similar in lifting an upper impulse
out of the SW US and across Kansas on Tuesday/Tuesday night. The stationary
surface front combined with the increased lift associated with this
impulse will increase shower chances for the start of the work week.

In addition...as this front stall across Kansas temperatures will finally fall
back towards seasonal values.

Ketcham

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 952 PM CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

Near persistence forecast planned with VFR weather prevailing
through Thursday. Lee trough will maintain southerly wind
component...with diurnal gusts of 25-32 kts Thursday with speeds
dropping some after dark. Scattered-broken middle level cloud decks
(accas) is expected to develop late tonight into Thursday
morning...across central/south central Kansas under the low-level
jet axis with fairly steep middle-level lapse rates.

Jmc

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 71 94 73 94 / 10 0 0 0
Hutchinson 71 95 73 94 / 10 10 10 0
Newton 71 94 72 93 / 10 0 0 0
Eldorado 70 93 72 93 / 10 0 0 0
Winfield-kwld 71 94 72 93 / 0 0 0 10
Russell 72 96 73 96 / 10 10 10 10
Great Bend 71 96 73 96 / 10 10 10 10
Salina 72 94 74 95 / 10 10 10 10
McPherson 71 95 72 93 / 10 10 10 0
Coffeyville 69 92 71 93 / 0 0 0 0
Chanute 69 91 71 93 / 0 0 0 10
Iola 69 91 71 92 / 0 0 0 10
Parsons-kppf 69 91 71 93 / 0 0 0 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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