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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
630 am CDT Friday Sep 4 2015

..updated for 12z aviation discussion...

Short term...(today through monday)
issued at 156 am CDT Friday Sep 4 2015

Main short term forecast challenge remains temperatures. Confidence
remains high that temperatures will be at least 5 degrees above
normal through the weekend. Looking at readings for the last
several days suggests that persistence remains a good forecast.

The upper level ridge remains in place through the period as the
pattern does not change much at all through Monday. A relatively
strong closed low remains anchored over the Pacific northwest with
the downstream ridge extending over the region.

Many disturbances do ride along the upper level ridge. That
said...isentropic lift and low level moisture transport remain west
and north of the area. GFS/European model (ecmwf) are in is good agreement here with
this scenario.

The only uncertainty is that if the ridge does flatten
some...nocturnal storms on the High Plains could make it into
central Kansas. But at this time...precipitation should hold off
until Monday.

Krc

Long term...(tuesday through thursday)
issued at 156 am CDT Friday Sep 4 2015

The ridge does begin to flatten late Monday as the
upper level closed low over the Pacific northwest weakens and ejects
east. This will bring a disturbance through the region...along with
an associated cold front. This will bring temperatures back to
normal for the remainder of the period.

Shear/buoyancy combinations and moisture transport along the front
suggests a pretty good chance of storms. However...it also suggests
that storms will not be organized severe storms at this time.

Krc

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 630 am CDT Friday Sep 4 2015

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the forecast valid
period. A few weak elevated showers may affect the krsl vicinity
through mid-morning. Gusty south winds can also be expected again
today for locations along/west of the Kansas Turnpike.

Ked

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 93 73 95 75 / 0 0 0 0
Hutchinson 94 73 95 75 / 10 0 0 10
Newton 93 72 94 74 / 0 0 0 10
Eldorado 93 72 94 74 / 0 0 0 0
Winfield-kwld 93 73 94 75 / 0 0 10 0
Russell 98 74 98 75 / 10 10 10 10
Great Bend 97 74 97 75 / 10 10 10 10
Salina 95 75 97 77 / 10 10 10 10
McPherson 94 73 95 75 / 10 10 0 10
Coffeyville 92 72 93 74 / 0 0 10 10
Chanute 91 71 93 73 / 0 0 10 10
Iola 90 72 92 73 / 0 0 10 0
Parsons-kppf 91 72 93 74 / 0 10 10 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

$$

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