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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
311 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 20 2014

Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 305 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 20 2014

Tonight-Thursday night: another hot afternoon across the forecast
area...with afternoon temperatures again climbing into the middle 90s.
Warm air aloft will keep most locations precipitation free for the
afternoon into the evening hours. But one exception will be over
extreme southeast Kansas where a weak impulse is currently moving across
northeast OK. This area of instability and weak lift may spark a
few diurnally driven storms across southeast Kansas for the late afternoon
hours so will keep an isolated storm mention for this area.

Strong low level moisture transport is expected to again race north
into southern Nebraska tonight...which will keep any overnight storm
development well to the north of the forecast area. Could also see
some storm development along the Lee side trough...expected to be
along the western edge of Kansas later this evening...but any development in
this area will propagate to the NE into southern Nebraska. Could see this
area skirt to the northwest of central Kansas...but think this activity will
stay out of the area as well.

The warm temperatures at the surface and aloft will lead to more of the hot
late Summer temperatures for Thursday as well. So will keep most of Thursday dry as
well...as cap looks to hold tight across the forecast area.

Plan on keeping some small probability of precipitation in for central Kansas for Thursday evening...
as the Lee side trough begins to set up across northwest Kansas....as middle level
flow begins to transition to more of SW flow. This will lead to
possible storm development in the High Plains possibly propagating
into central Kansas late Thursday evening. Not sure how far east the storms
will propagate late Thursday night as they will run into more stable air
the further east they go.

Could also see low level moisture transport veer to the east late
Thursday...with moisture transport and 315k isentropic lift increasing
over the northeast edges of the forecast area by Friday morning. So
will go with a low pop into Friday morning for areas between ksln and
kcnu.

Friday-Sat: the upper level high over the Gulf Coast states looks to
retrograde back to the west into the weekend...with SW flow over
the western half of the plains. Some uncertainty between the GFS and
European model (ecmwf) on how far east the Lee side trough will drift into the
forecast area for the weekend. Weak impulses in this SW flow will
bump the boundary a little further east for Friday into Sat....which
will lead to chance probability of precipitation across central Kansas for Friday/Sat
afternoon/evening.

Ketcham

Long term...(sunday through wednesday)
issued at 305 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 20 2014

Boundary looks to get a little better push to the southeast for sun
and Sun night. GFS suggests the boundary will drop across the area
for Sun afternoon and Sun night. So will increase probability of precipitation especially
across central Kansas for Sun night...as a fairly potent shortwave in
the SW flow will move along the front for a shower and thunderstorm
chance.

Some uncertainty on how the beginning of the week will play
out...as the GFS and European model (ecmwf) both suggest that the boundary will be
become stationary over the forecast area for Mon-Wed. This will lead
to a rather unsettled pattern for most of the area with a weakly
capped environment for afternoon/evening storm chances.

Ketcham

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1217 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 20 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast package.
However...thunderstorms in the vicinity will be possible in an area near kcnu due to
afternoon instabilities. Thunderstorms in the vicinity will also be possible overnight in
the vicinity of krsl as a system out west Sparks a few storms and
they may migrate into teh NC sections. Windy conditions will
prevail on Thursday across all taf sites as the gradient begins to
tighten.

Chance

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 76 99 77 97 / 10 10 10 10
Hutchinson 76 99 76 99 / 0 10 20 10
Newton 75 98 76 97 / 10 10 20 20
Eldorado 76 99 77 98 / 10 10 10 10
Winfield-kwld 75 99 77 97 / 10 10 10 10
Russell 73 98 74 97 / 10 20 20 20
Great Bend 75 98 74 97 / 10 10 20 20
Salina 76 99 77 99 / 0 10 20 10
McPherson 76 99 76 98 / 0 10 20 10
Coffeyville 74 100 76 97 / 20 10 10 10
Chanute 74 99 76 97 / 20 10 10 10
Iola 74 98 76 97 / 20 10 10 10
Parsons-kppf 74 99 76 97 / 20 10 10 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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