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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
303 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014

Synopsis...
issued at 302 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014

The cluster of storms that developed very early this morning
followed the middle level Theta-E gradient and are now tracking
across eastern OK. Meanwhile...additional activity is slowly dissipating
over north central Kansas. Outflow from these storms have effectively
become the cold front which now stretches from west-central
Kansas...into central Oklahoma.

&&

Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 302 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014

The decaying storms over central Kansas are expected to continue this
trend with a weak mesoscale convective vortex expected to linger this evening. This
remnant energy may spark a few isolated showers/storms but not
expecting widespread convection. More widespread storms are
expected tonight over east-central Nebraska in an area of
isentropic lift along the 315k surface. Would expect storms to
behave like they did this morning and follow the middle level Theta-E
gradient which will be pushed slightly east overnight. This should
place the better storm chances east of the forecast area. Return
flow and a warming trend will commence on Thursday as the surface high
shifts east.

The upper pattern is expected to flatten out over the Central Plains
on Friday as a potent shortwave tracks across southern Saskatchewan.
This will bring a weak surface trough into the forecast area with
temperatures along and south of the trough spiking to around or just
above the century mark. Will go ahead and insert small precipitation
chances for Sat into Sat night as the cold front starts to sag
south. In addition...there is some model agreement that the
transition to more northwest flow will allow some of the middle level
monsoonal energy/moisture to move into the area.

Long term...(sunday through wednesday)
issued at 302 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014

The main story through these extended periods will be another
significant cool down.

By Sun morning there is now good model agreement that shortwave
energy will be exiting the northern Mississippi Valley and moving
into the western Great Lakes with the cold front just south of the
forecast area. As the upper trough becomes more established over
the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...a reinforcing shot of cold air will
push across the northern and Central Plains. This will result in
highs in the 80s for Mon-Wed. Will run with some precipitation chances
for the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame as the upper ridge shifts slightly
west allowing some weak upper upper energy to slide into the area.

Lawson

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1246 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014

Two areas of thunderstorms affecting the region early this
afternoon. One exiting far southeast Kansas...another progressing
southeast over northern Kansas. Anticipating the latter activity to
possibly affect rsl-sln for a time this afternoon...but for now
only went thunderstorms in the vicinity at sln. Diurnal cooling in concert with moist low-
level upslope flow may result in MVFR visibilities later tonight through
early Thursday...with Stout/gusty southeast winds ramping up by
middle-morning Thursday...as low pressure strengthens across the
western High Plains.

Adk



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 69 94 74 101 / 10 10 10 10
Hutchinson 69 95 74 102 / 10 10 10 10
Newton 67 93 73 101 / 10 10 10 10
Eldorado 67 92 73 100 / 10 10 10 10
Winfield-kwld 69 93 74 101 / 10 10 10 10
Russell 67 99 74 102 / 10 10 10 10
Great Bend 67 98 74 102 / 10 10 10 10
Salina 68 97 75 104 / 10 10 10 10
McPherson 68 95 74 102 / 10 10 10 10
Coffeyville 68 92 72 98 / 10 10 10 10
Chanute 66 90 71 97 / 10 10 10 10
Iola 66 89 71 96 / 10 10 10 10
Parsons-kppf 67 90 71 97 / 10 10 10 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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