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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
520 am CST Friday Dec 19 2014

..updated for 12z aviation discussion...

Short term...(today through monday)
issued at 237 am CST Friday Dec 19 2014

Low stratus will remain entrenched across the forecast area this
morning underneath surface ridge axis...with light winds and a moist
boundary layer. Will maintain areas of fog given some potential for
stratus buildown. Cirroform clouds pushing across the south...in
association with a shortwave trough moving into the Southern
Plains...may hinder widespread/dense fog in the south but will keep
an eye on trends. Central Kansas may have a chance for partial clearing
this afternoon as light southerly flow/mixing develops. Low
clouds/patchy fog may develop again across much of the area
tonight...although better mixing is prognosticated west of the Flint Hills.

Lee troughing/southerly flow should allow for temperature
modification this weekend with highs climbing into the 40s areawide.

The next chance of precipitation will come Sunday night into Monday
as a shortwave trough deepens while moving out of the northern
rockies...across the northern/Central Plains. Temperature profiles
favor rain at this time. It's possible that some light drizzle could
develop over south central Kansas and the Flint Hills by Sunday
afternoon with low-level isentropic ascent/moistening occurring.

Long term...(tuesday through thursday)
issued at 237 am CST Friday Dec 19 2014

Cooler and drier air will push into the forecast area Tuesday behind
the departing upper trough. The medium range models show another
upper trough pushing into the western states around midweek...before
it ejects out across the plains late in the week. The models were
fairly similar on timing...however the European model (ecmwf) deepens the upper
trough moreso than the GFS. Right now...at face value...the European model (ecmwf)
dry slots our forecast area with widespread wintry precipitation
occurring just north of our area...and warm conveyor belt
precipitation forming just east of southeast Kansas. The GFS keeps
precipitation north of our area. Given the model variability and
that this is still 6-7 days away...uncertainty in forecast details
and precipitation chances is above average. Will maintain some
forecast continuity with a slight chance of rain/snow in central Kansas
on Thursday. Forecast adjustments are likely between now and late
next week...so those planning travel around the Christmas Holiday
will want to check back for later updates on our thinking.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 515 am CST Friday Dec 19 2014

Poor aviation conditions will continue across much of the region
for this morning with low clouds and fog developing. The low
cloud ceilings will rise slowly by this afternoon. Meanwhile...winds
will remain out of the south/southwest for this afternoon and
tonight.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 39 30 46 36 / 10 0 0 0
Hutchinson 38 28 46 35 / 10 0 0 0
Newton 37 29 45 35 / 10 0 0 0
Eldorado 38 30 46 36 / 10 0 0 0
Winfield-kwld 40 30 47 37 / 10 0 0 10
Russell 44 25 48 31 / 0 0 0 0
Great Bend 40 26 49 32 / 10 0 0 0
Salina 37 29 46 34 / 10 0 0 0
McPherson 37 29 46 34 / 10 0 0 0
Coffeyville 41 31 46 36 / 10 0 0 10
Chanute 39 30 45 35 / 10 0 0 10
Iola 38 30 45 35 / 10 0 0 10
Parsons-kppf 40 31 46 36 / 10 0 0 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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