Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
249 PM CDT sun may 3 2015

Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 242 PM CDT sun may 3 2015

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible over western Kansas late
this afternoon/evening...with some of this activity clipping
portions of central Kansas tonight. Another warm and windy day will
be on tap for Kansas on Monday...with a better coverage of
thunderstorms expected to develop later in the afternoon along a
stalled out frontal boundary extending from southeast Nebraska into
west central Kansas. Some of this activity could once again affect
central Kansas as cold pools from the initial convection expand
southward...however with the steering winds more from the south
this should keep the bulk of the coverage over central Kansas and
north. A few strong to marginally severe storms are possible with
Richer moisture boosting the instability...but weaker shear aloft
would result in more of a multi-cell thunderstorm organization.

Meanwhile...latest satellite water vapor imagery shows next weather
system off the coast line of Southern California. This system will
move eastward across the southwestern states on Tuesday and eject out
into the Texas Panhandle during the afternoon hours. Thunderstorms
will quickly develop over the Texas Panhandle/western Kansas...and
with moisture transport ramping up ahead of this pronounced upper
level wave expect the coverage of storms to increase for the region.
Once again some strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday
night. This thunderstorm activity looks to slide northeast of
central and southern Kansas Wednesday morning...with subsidence
behind the departing upper wave tapering off the rain chances. If
the airmass can recover enough from the morning thunderstorm
activity...more storms could re-develop along the dry line Wednesday
afternoon/evening over central Kansas. Wind shear aloft actually
looks more favorable this period compared to Monday and
Tuesday...therefore the risk of severe weather could increase.

Long term...(thursday through sunday)
issued at 242 PM CDT sun may 3 2015

Long range models are in good agreement with another well developed
upper level system taking up residence over the southwestern states
this period...with persistent southwest flow aloft and weak
disturbances ejecting from the parent system along with rich Gulf
moisture remaining over Kansas. This setup would create an active
weather pattern for Kansas with episodes of severe weather likely.
In addition...if this pattern locks in and the surface front does
stall out over the area flooding could become problematic at some
point as well.

Jakub

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1224 PM CDT sun may 3 2015

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the forecast valid period.
Scattered convection is expected to develop along a cold front
which will sag south to just north of the I-70 corridor this
evening and tonight. Therefore will include thunderstorms in the vicinity at krsl and ksln.
Otherwise diurnally gusty winds will diminish this evening
along/east of the Turnpike corridor...with winds becoming light at
krsl and shifting to the northeast behind the front by Monday
morning.

Ked

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 60 82 61 79 / 10 10 10 10
Hutchinson 59 81 61 78 / 20 20 20 20
Newton 58 81 60 79 / 20 10 10 10
Eldorado 61 81 61 80 / 20 10 10 10
Winfield-kwld 61 82 61 79 / 10 10 10 10
Russell 60 82 59 77 / 40 60 50 50
Great Bend 60 82 59 76 / 40 40 40 50
Salina 60 81 61 80 / 40 30 30 10
McPherson 59 81 61 79 / 30 20 20 10
Coffeyville 62 81 60 81 / 10 10 10 10
Chanute 61 80 59 81 / 20 20 10 10
Iola 62 80 59 80 / 20 20 10 10
Parsons-kppf 62 81 60 81 / 10 10 10 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations