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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
223 am CDT Thursday Jul 31 2014

Short term...(today through sunday)
issued at 218 am CDT Thursday Jul 31 2014

Compact shortwave that brought all the rainfall to south central
Kansas...continues to drop southeast into southern OK. Still lots of low level
moisture wrapping around this system to the north...up into southeast Kansas.
Increased surface moisture from the rainfall may lead to some
patchy dense fog across southern Kansas for this morning...but this fog
should burn off quickly after sunrise. Short term models suggest
that the wraparound low level moisture may continue for the
morning hours...as both the GFS and NAM/WRF show some 850h
moisture transport into this area. This moisture transport could
lead to some lingering showers developing in extreme southeast Kansas for
the morning hours...so will keep a slight pop going for this
chance. Think increasing isentropic downglide will push any
lingering shower chance further south by this afternoon.

The rest of the region will see a very pleasant end of July day...as
northwest flow aloft remains in control with drier air moving into the area
and below normal temperatures expected.

The light winds and clear skies tonight...may lead to some patchy
fog for areas along and east of the Flint Hills.

The northwest flow pattern looks to continue for Friday and into the weekend
as well with mostly clear skies. Will see temperatures gradually climb back
towards seasonal norms by the end of the weekend....as middle level
heights slowly rise.

Ketcham

Long term...(monday through wednesday)
issued at 218 am CDT Thursday Jul 31 2014

Upper ridge over The Rockies that has been responsible for the northwest
flow pattern looks to break down on Monday...as a shortwave moves
across The Rockies. As this shortwave begins to push into the
plains...expect a Lee side trough to deepen along the Front Range of
The Rockies. This trough will drift into the High Plains for Tuesday and
across Kansas on Wednesday. Medium range models suggest that this trough will
move into central Kansas by Tuesday afternoon/evening and will be draped
across most of Kansas for Wednesday. This looks like the next chance for
showers and thunderstorms for most of the plains...as middle level
dynamics from the shortwave increase.

Ketcham

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1151 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 30 2014

Patchy to areas of fog are likely overnight through early Thursday
morning...especially at cnu where moisture is deepest. Further
northwest...fog chances will be a bit more patchy at ict-hut-sln-
rsl where drier air is encroaching from the north. Thinking fog
here may be a bit more shallow...as is likely the case currently
at hut. All-in-all...widespread IFR and below is likely at
cnu...with patchy IFR and below at ict-hut...and patchy MVFR to
potentially IFR at sln-rsl.

Adk

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 82 62 87 65 / 0 0 10 0
Hutchinson 83 62 88 64 / 0 0 10 0
Newton 82 62 87 64 / 0 0 10 0
Eldorado 82 61 86 64 / 0 0 10 10
Winfield-kwld 81 62 86 65 / 10 0 10 10
Russell 84 62 89 64 / 0 0 10 0
Great Bend 83 62 88 64 / 0 0 10 0
Salina 86 63 90 65 / 0 0 10 10
McPherson 84 62 88 64 / 0 0 10 10
Coffeyville 81 61 86 63 / 30 0 10 10
Chanute 82 61 86 63 / 10 0 10 10
Iola 82 61 85 63 / 0 0 10 10
Parsons-kppf 81 61 86 63 / 20 0 10 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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