Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
330 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 329 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Forecast highlights focus around thunderstorm chances tonight
through Thursday morning...with hot and mostly dry Summer weather
likely late this week through at least early to middle next week.
Difficult thunderstorm forecast tonight-Thursday morning. Currently
a weak 700-500mb ripple is advancing east across eastern Kansas. Given
this feature along with the relatively uncapped airmass in
place...cannot rule out a few isolated hit-and-miss thunderstorms
late this afternoon through about sunset. Not anticipating
widespread coverage though. Focus then turns to later tonight when
eastern fringe of advancing elevated mixed layer approaches from the
west...dramatically increasing 800-600mb warm/moist advection from
west to east...resulting in a chance of thunderstorms after 2-3am
west of the Flint Hills. The highest chances may be over
central/east-central Kansas where nose of moisture transport is
pointing. NAM and GFS elevated instability forecasts indicate ~2500 j/kg
instability from parcels rooted around 800mb...along with around 30
kts of effective shear...indicating strong to severe hailers are
possible with any storms that can form. However...unsure on how
widespread activity will be given the convection-suppressing affects
of middle/upper ridging developing across the region overnight...which
may be a reason why the latest hrrr and kf NAM struggle in
developing overnight convection. Again...highest potential may
remain over central/east-central Kansas and points north.
Nevertheless...held onto modest chance probability of precipitation given strength of
isentropic ascent/moisture transport. Anticipating activity to
fester much of Thursday morning east of I-135...and possibly into the
afternoon east of the Flint Hills.
Adk
&&
Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 329 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Otherwise...building middle/upper ridge will likely suppress widespread
thunderstorm chances from Friday through at least early to middle next
week...and allow above normal Summer heat to build across the
region. Cannot completely rule out a few isolated hit-and-miss
afternoon-evening thunderstorms Fri-Sat...as European model (ecmwf) hints at subtle
weaknesses progressing over the area...but thinking this threat will
be quite isolated. Otherwise...with GFS ensembles and operational
European model (ecmwf) building ridge into early/middle next week...confidence is high
that above normal Summer heat in the 90s to low 100s will prevail
regionwide...warmest generally over the western half of Kansas...with
overnight lows in the 70s all areas.
Adk
&&
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1244 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
The main aviation forecast concern are the thunderstorm chances
overnight.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail...but low cumulus clouds
could impact the terminals this afternoon. Ceilings have lifted to
3500+ kft this afternoon and expect that trend to continue. A
slight chance of thunderstorm exists this afternoon and early
evening...but confidence is low on that and have left out any
mention at this time and will allow for amendments if something
develops. However...confidence is higher for overnight convection
and have a thunderstorms in the vicinity at all terminals for storms. Southerly winds are a
bit weaker than anticipated...but still expecting gusts this
afternoon and then again tomorrow afternoon with mixing.
Billings
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 70 90 73 95 / 40 40 10 10
Hutchinson 69 93 73 96 / 40 30 10 10
Newton 68 88 73 94 / 40 50 10 10
Eldorado 69 87 72 92 / 40 40 10 10
Winfield-kwld 70 89 73 93 / 30 40 10 10
Russell 68 97 73 98 / 40 10 10 10
Great Bend 68 97 72 97 / 30 10 10 10
Salina 70 91 74 96 / 50 50 10 10
McPherson 69 91 73 96 / 40 50 10 10
Coffeyville 69 85 73 91 / 30 40 10 10
Chanute 68 84 72 90 / 30 40 10 10
Iola 68 84 71 90 / 30 40 10 10
Parsons-kppf 69 84 73 90 / 30 40 10 10
&&
Ict watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&
$$
