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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
632 PM CDT Monday Sep 22 2014

..updated for 00z aviation discussion...

Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 226 PM CDT Monday Sep 22 2014

A robust shortwave trough over the northern/central rockies this
afternoon...will translate east over the Central Plains late tonight
into Tuesday...with this feature prognosticated to slow/weaken
Wednesday-Thursday. Elevated moisture/instability transport along
with isentropic lift in the 305-315k layer will result in a decent
chance of showers/thunder across central Kansas late tonight into
Tuesday...with chances tapering to slight-none over far southeast Kansas.
With the upper trough weakening/shearing Wednesday-Thursday...rain
chances are expected to slowly diminish...while remaining primarily
over central sections of the forecast area. Forecast temperatures
are near seasonal climatology during the period. Only modest adjustments
were needed to the going forecast which appears on track.

Jmc

Long term...(friday through monday)
issued at 226 PM CDT Monday Sep 22 2014

Broad upper ridging will encompass much of the central/eastern Continental U.S.
Early in the period...with a trapped...weak shear axis across the
Central Plains/Midwest. The above features are prognosticated to slide east
Sunday into Monday...while the next upstream upper trough pushes
into The Rockies. Consensus of the medium range guidance is to
keep a dry forecast through the weekend...with the next chance of
thunderstorms arriving in our western counties perhaps late
Monday or Monday night. Forecast temperatures will be about 3 to 5
degrees above seasonal climatology.

Jmc

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 624 PM CDT Monday Sep 22 2014

VFR conditions will prevail across the region tonight with
southerly winds and high level clouds floating overhead. Meanwhile
a upper level wave will move eastward across the region during the
day on Tuesday...with rain showers possible over central Kansas.

Jakub

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 56 80 59 79 / 10 20 40 30
Hutchinson 56 78 58 80 / 30 40 50 40
Newton 55 77 57 78 / 10 30 50 40
Eldorado 54 78 57 78 / 10 20 40 30
Winfield-kwld 56 79 59 80 / 10 20 30 30
Russell 57 77 58 81 / 60 60 50 30
Great Bend 58 78 58 81 / 60 60 40 30
Salina 56 77 58 79 / 30 50 60 40
McPherson 55 77 58 80 / 20 50 60 40
Coffeyville 54 78 55 79 / 10 10 10 10
Chanute 53 77 55 79 / 10 10 10 20
Iola 53 76 55 79 / 10 10 20 20
Parsons-kppf 53 78 55 79 / 10 10 10 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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