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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
640 am CDT Friday Jul 3 2015

..updated for 12z aviation discussion...

Short term...(today through sunday)
issued at 255 am CDT Friday Jul 3 2015

A shortwave centered over Iowa early this morning...will push
slowly southeastward across the middle Mississippi Valley today into
tonight. The southwest extent of this wave will pass southward
through eastern Kansas...and may result in widely scattered
thunderstorms over southeast Kansas with little to no capping and
diurnal strong instability.

Another upstream shortwave...centered over southern Alberta and
Montana early this morning per water vapor channel...is prognosticated by
short range models to traverse southeastward across the Central
Plains Saturday into Sunday. Initial storm development is expected
mainly over the Central High plains during the day Saturday where a
few strong-severe storms appear likely with strong instability and
moderate-strong deep layer shear. A 35-40 knot south-southwesterly
low-level jet will provide moisture transport into the forecast
area Saturday night into Sunday...as the upper trough moves
through. This will likely increase the storm coverage some...with
clusters of storms moving through the area. This will be important
to keep in mind for those with outdoor plans for the Holiday
weekend...as some of the storms may contain frequent
lightning...gusty winds...and hail...although not expecting
widespread organized severe weather. Prevailing winds (outside of
storm-induced outflows)...is prognosticated to be southeast at 5-15 miles per hour
Saturday evening.

Overall temperatures through this weekend are expected to be near
our warm seasonal averages.

Jmc

Long term...(monday through thursday)
issued at 255 am CDT Friday Jul 3 2015

The mean upper pattern is prognosticated to feature broad...somewhat
flat upper ridging from the southern rockies to the Gulf
states...with upper troughing over central and eastern Canada. The
00z/3rd GFS and European model (ecmwf) were in good agreement showing a strong
shortwave trough sweeping east across the northern plains to the
Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday. This will drop a cold front
southward through Kansas where rich moisture/instability will be
available. There is some concern that the consensus probabilities
for thunderstorms may be too high with this front this far south...given
middle-level temperatures are on the warm side...making storm
coverage more questionable. Nevertheless...this will be our next
chance for thunderstorms across the forecast area. This front
looks to stall to the south of Kansas...before returning sometime
middle-late week. Temperatures may drop to cooler than average behind
the front Tuesday...before recovering to around seasonal averages
by Thursday.

Jmc

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 637 am CDT Friday Jul 3 2015

IFR/LIFR stratus and fog was advecting south-southwest across central &
southeast Kansas early this morning impacting kcnu as well as ksln and
krsl. This activity may impact kict before mixing out after
16-17z. Light northeast winds are anticipated through the period
becoming east-southeast tonight. There is some concern that low clouds/fog
may redevelop during the evening hours but confidence remains low
at this time.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 87 66 90 71 / 20 10 20 40
Hutchinson 87 64 90 71 / 10 10 20 40
Newton 85 64 88 70 / 20 10 20 40
Eldorado 86 64 87 70 / 20 10 10 40
Winfield-kwld 88 66 89 70 / 20 20 20 40
Russell 87 65 90 71 / 10 10 30 40
Great Bend 87 66 90 70 / 10 10 30 40
Salina 85 64 89 70 / 10 10 20 30
McPherson 86 64 89 71 / 10 10 20 40
Coffeyville 85 65 87 69 / 40 20 10 30
Chanute 83 64 87 68 / 40 20 10 20
Iola 83 64 86 69 / 40 20 10 20
Parsons-kppf 84 64 87 69 / 40 30 10 20

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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