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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
636 am CDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014

..updated for 12z aviation discussion...

Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 245 am CDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014

Low-level convergence along a stalled frontal zone may result in
patchy light drizzle early this morning over far
southern/southeast Kansas. Otherwise...partly to mostly cloudy skies
are anticipated today...especially over the southern half of
Kansas...as low-level moisture begins surging back northeast in
response to a subtle upper level disturbance approaching from the
northwest. Increased ascent on nose of strengthening low-level jet
should result in increased scattered thunderstorm chances
tonight--Wednesday morning...primarily east of a line from
Lincoln-Wichita-Winfield after midnight. Instability/shear combo
will favor dime size hail and locally heavy rain with the
strongest activity. Reinforcing Canadian high pressure settling
south across the eastern Continental U.S. Is expected to sharpen the frontal
boundary across the Kansas region...which should result in
continued thunderstorm chances Wednesday--Thursday...especially
northeast of a line from Great Bend-Wichita-Winfield Wednesday
evening--Thursday morning. Modest northwest flow aloft coupled
with decent instability could favor a few strong to severe storms.
In the temperature department...readings will warm back into the
80s-90s Wed-Thu...as western Continental U.S. High pressure approaches the
region.

Adk

Long term...(friday through monday)
issued at 245 am CDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014

An interesting synoptic setup may arrive for the weekend...as
remnants of Hurricane Odile currently over the central Baja California
peninsula progress northeast...eventually phasing with a deep
trough approaching from the northwest. Add the arrival of a strong
cold front from the northwest...confidence is increasing in
widespread showers/thunderstorms from Friday night--Saturday
evening. Tropical connection and associated high precipitable
waters and poor lapse rates should temper severe
chances...although it will favor locally very heavy rainfall in
short amounts of time. However...not anticipating a prolonged
event as synoptic features should remain fairly progressive. The
slower model solutions often verify the best with systems like
this...so don't be surprised if this system slows down a bit.
Cooler fall-like temperatures are anticipated in wake of this
system Sunday into next week.

Adk

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 631 am CDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014

Main aviation concern will be low clouds today.

Low clouds have gradually increased overnight over southern Kansas and
now encompass most areas south of I-70. So far they have not
dropped down to IFR levels and not expecting them to. Feel that a
few sites will go down to MVFR levels for the next few hours over
mainly southern Kansas. By the afternoon hours most sites should be at
VFR levels. Late tonight there is decent model agreement that
areas east of I-135 will again see lower clouds.

Lawson

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 77 65 89 66 / 10 20 20 20
Hutchinson 76 64 88 65 / 10 20 20 30
Newton 75 63 85 64 / 10 30 20 30
Eldorado 76 63 86 65 / 10 30 20 30
Winfield-kwld 78 66 89 67 / 10 20 10 20
Russell 76 62 85 64 / 10 10 20 30
Great Bend 76 63 88 64 / 10 10 20 30
Salina 74 62 84 65 / 10 30 20 40
McPherson 75 63 85 64 / 10 20 20 30
Coffeyville 77 64 85 66 / 10 30 30 30
Chanute 75 61 82 64 / 10 40 30 40
Iola 74 60 81 63 / 10 40 30 40
Parsons-kppf 76 63 84 65 / 10 40 30 30

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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