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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1015 am CST Sat Dec 27 2014

Update...
issued at 1014 am CST Sat Dec 27 2014

Latest 88d images and surface observation suggest most of the lingering
precipitation returns arent reaching the ground. Mainly just some flurries
or a few bursts of snow...still along the last middle level
frontogenetic zone. So not expecting much more than trace amounts
or a dusting on grassy areas. Latest very short term models suggest
this frontogenetic zone will gradually push east-southeast for the rest of the
morning hours...with the last area of lift and light snow pushing
east of the forecast area by around 18-19z. Current grids/zones
handle this well.

After this light snow ends...expect a gradual clearing of the cloud
cover from northwest to southeast late this afternoon as isentropic downglide
kicks in for most locations. Central and south central Kansas have
already cleared out....with southeast Kansas the last to clear out by this
evening.

Ketcham

&&

Short term...(today through tuesday)
issued at 331 am CST Sat Dec 27 2014

Light rain and snow showers have developed across Oklahoma
downstream from a slow moving middle/upper trough lifting over the
region. This area of light precipitation may impact southeast
Kansas through the morning hours. A dusting of snow will be
possible before the activity diminishes by late morning across southeast
Kansas. A cooler airmass has settled over the region in the wake
of the front with more seasonable highs in the 30s/around 40
anticipated. A ridge of high pressure at the surface will translate
southward over the High Plains tonight with light westerly winds
and clearing skies resulting in lows ranging from the low teens
across central Kansas to around 20 over southeast Kansas.

Temperatures will slowly moderate on Sunday as southerly winds
return to the Central Plains states. This moderation will be short-
lived as a blast of Arctic air will begin to move south across the
area on Monday afternoon. Maintained low probability of precipitation for light snow
developing along and behind the front on Monday-Monday night although
very light snow or snow flurries may linger into the day on
Tuesday when the bulk of the cold air settles across the region.
Highs on Tuesday may struggle to climb out of the teens across much of
the area.

Long term...(wednesday through friday)
issued at 331 am CST Sat Dec 27 2014

Temperatures will begin to moderate once again on Wednesday-Thursday
as another storm system is prognosticated to dig across the southwest and
southerly flow returns to the Central Plains states. More
significant differences appear as we move toward the end of the week
as the GFS maintains a track further north with the middle/upper
trough lifting out of the southwest when compared to the European model (ecmwf).
Maintained middle probability of precipitation late Thursday-Friday but confidence in precipitation
type/snowfall amounts remains low due to large differences in
phase & amplitude.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 529 am CST Sat Dec 27 2014

Main aviation concern will be some lower clouds this morning.

Even though the cold front swept through yesterday...shortwave
energy approaching West Texas is providing a stream of mainly middle
level clouds and light precipitation over eastern Kansas. Confidence is high
that ceilings over eastern Kansas will remain above IFR levels with
just some very isolated pockets of MVFR ceilings for the next few
hours. Precipitation is falling out of a middle level deck which will result
in only light precipitation with no visible restrictions expected. So would
expected a light rain/snow mix this morning over kcnu. Skies will
clear from west to east this morning with clear skies in place
across all but extreme southeast Kansas by 18z.

Lawson



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 37 18 41 23 / 10 0 0 0
Hutchinson 36 16 40 20 / 10 0 0 0
Newton 33 16 40 20 / 10 0 0 0
Eldorado 37 18 42 23 / 10 0 0 0
Winfield-kwld 38 19 42 24 / 20 0 0 0
Russell 32 11 39 19 / 10 0 0 0
Great Bend 33 13 39 19 / 0 0 0 0
Salina 34 16 39 20 / 10 0 0 0
McPherson 34 16 40 20 / 10 0 0 0
Coffeyville 39 20 41 23 / 60 0 0 0
Chanute 38 19 40 22 / 40 0 0 0
Iola 38 20 39 22 / 30 0 0 0
Parsons-kppf 39 19 40 22 / 50 0 0 0

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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