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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1211 PM CDT Monday Aug 3 2015

..updated for 18z aviation discussion...

Short term...(today through wednesday)
issued at 316 am CDT Monday Aug 3 2015

Forecast highlights through next weekend focus around
thunderstorm chances late tonight through Wednesday
morning...cooler temperatures Tuesday...and a warming trend
late week/weekend.

Today:

Seasonably warm temperatures are expected today in the low-middle
90s...although heat indices will be tempered in the middle-upper 90s
due to dewpoints remaining a bit lower in the 60s. Thunderstorm
chances late this afternoon-evening will likely remain just
north/northeast of the forecast area along a weak frontal
zone...and just west/southwest closer to the Lee trough and
approaching shortwave.

Tonight-wednesday:

Thunderstorm chances are expected to increase from the west-
southwest well after midnight and possibly more toward dawn
Tuesday...especially over south-central Kansas...as a shortwave
trough approaches from the west. Despite modest/strong moisture
transport...limited instability and deep layer shear will likely
preclude severe weather...although anomalously high precipitable
waters will support locally heavy rain. For Tuesday...persistent
850- 700mb warm/moist advection ahead of approaching shortwave
energy should result in scattered to at times numerous off-and-on
showers/thunderstorms across the region. Much of the activity
should remain below strong/severe levels...although increasing
instability may promote strong/severe chances by late afternoon
over central Kansas. Locally heavy rain is possible though. For
Tuesday night...widespread to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected to shift mainly along/east of I-135...as 850-700mb
warm/moist advection ramps up. In addition to the continued heavy
rainfall threat...increasing elevated instability and a strong
low- level jet in concert with ample deep layer shear may support
a handful of strong-severe storms. Activity should exit southeast
Kansas Wednesday morning...although latest European model (ecmwf) lingers activity a
bit longer Wednesday.

Adk

Long term...(thursday through sunday)
issued at 316 am CDT Monday Aug 3 2015

In general...lower precipitation chances (albeit not zero) and
warmer temperatures will be the trend late week into the
weekend...as the southwest Continental U.S. Middle-upper level ridge shifts east
over mid-America. The exceptions precipitation-wise may be
Thursday night-early Friday...as subtle shortwave energy tops the
ridge and approaches from the northwest. However...suspect brunt
of these chances will remain over northern/northeast Kansas along
northeast edge of warmer middle-level temperatures. Temperature-
wise...sided closer to the somewhat cooler European model (ecmwf)/Gem models for
now. The warmer GFS appears to be the outlier...but if it verifies
it would support hot temperatures in the 100s late week-weekend.

Adk

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1202 PM CDT Monday Aug 3 2015

A frontal boundary over central Kansas is prognosticated to lift north
of the area this afternoon allowing light northeast winds to shift
to a southerly direction. Further south...southwest winds will
become more southeasterly this evening and tonight but remain
rather light. Introduced some thunderstorms and rain after 12-14z across south
central Kansas as short-range models are in reasonable agreement
developing precipitation as a shortwave trough approaches late
tonight/early on Tuesday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 94 72 86 69 / 10 30 60 60
Hutchinson 95 71 85 67 / 10 30 60 50
Newton 93 71 83 67 / 10 20 60 60
Eldorado 94 71 85 68 / 10 20 60 60
Winfield-kwld 94 73 86 70 / 10 30 60 50
Russell 95 70 85 66 / 10 20 50 40
Great Bend 94 69 85 66 / 10 40 50 40
Salina 93 71 86 68 / 10 20 50 60
McPherson 94 71 85 67 / 10 30 50 60
Coffeyville 95 73 87 71 / 10 10 60 60
Chanute 94 72 86 69 / 10 10 50 60
Iola 94 72 86 68 / 10 10 50 60
Parsons-kppf 94 73 86 70 / 10 10 60 60

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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