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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
555 PM CST Wednesday Jan 28 2015

..updated for 00z aviation discussion...

Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 311 PM CST Wednesday Jan 28 2015

Forecast highlights through middle to late next week:
*cool down by Thursday (tomorrow).
*Rain/snow mix Friday night--early Sunday.
*Near/below normal temperatures through at least early-middle next week.

As of mid-afternoon...a surface trough was moving across the
forecast area...associated with a shortwave pushing across the
Central Plains. Stout south/southwest winds and compressional
warming ahead of this trough has allowed temperatures over
southeast Kansas to warm as high as the upper 70s. Readings are a tad
cooler behind the trough despite better downslope flow...due to
somewhat cooler 850mb temperatures and dense cirrus.

A reality check will begin to set in tonight--Thursday...as a
cold front approaching from the north Ushers cooler air south on
strong north winds...although Thursday readings should still be a
bit above normal in the upper 40s--lower 50s. After lows Thursday
night in the 20s areawide...readings will likely remain in the 40s
Friday as dense middle-upper clouds stream across the region.

Focus then turns to the storm system slated to affect the region
Friday night--early Sunday. At this time it does not look like a
major storm system...as the northern stream energy comes through
positively tilted...and brunt of southern stream energy remains
south. However...persist modest 800-600mb Theta-E advection and
favorable upper level dynamics will favor light to at times
moderate precipitation...with widespread liquid equivalent amounts
around one- quarter inch with locally higher amounts of one-half
inch or so. As far as precipitation-type GOES...current model
trends suggest mostly a cold rain...as temperatures remain just
too warm for snow in the upper 30s--lower 40s. However...could see
a change-over to all snow for a time Saturday night as colder air
filters south...in wake of departing system...but at this time
accumulations look light (generally less than one inch).

Adk

Long term...(sunday through wednesday)
issued at 311 PM CST Wednesday Jan 28 2015

Overall...temperatures will remain near to below normal from
Sunday through at least middle to late next week...as a longwave
trough persists across generally the eastern half of North
America...and broad upper ridging anchors itself across the
western half of the continent. The coldest days should be Sunday--
Monday...as Canadian high pressure settles south across middle-
America. Sunday will be particularly raw...due to Stout north
winds and temperatures in the 20s-30s. Could see a few brief warm-
ups into the 40s-50s Tuesday-- Wednesday...before another slug of
colder air arrives for late week.

Adk

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 555 PM CST Wednesday Jan 28 2015

The front is nearly through the area...going through kcnu within
+/- 60 min of this issuance. All winds will be westerly or
northeasterly through the remainder of the forecast. And gusty
winds look to be the main concern. As surface high pressure moves
in Thursday...northerly winds will be gusty until the gradient
slackens from north to south during the afternoon hours. Middle-level
clouds approaching the 3000ft VFR/MVFR threshold will be possible
toward the morning hours moving in from the north. Have kept them
VFR for now as confidence is not high they'll be MVFR.

Billings Wright

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 39 49 24 47 / 0 0 0 10
Hutchinson 38 48 23 47 / 0 0 0 10
Newton 39 47 23 46 / 0 0 0 10
Eldorado 40 48 23 47 / 0 0 0 0
Winfield-kwld 40 50 24 47 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 35 47 23 47 / 0 0 0 10
Great Bend 37 47 23 47 / 0 0 0 10
Salina 35 48 23 47 / 0 0 0 10
McPherson 38 48 23 47 / 0 0 0 10
Coffeyville 41 50 24 47 / 0 0 0 0
Chanute 40 49 23 46 / 0 0 0 0
Iola 40 48 22 45 / 0 0 0 0
Parsons-kppf 41 50 23 47 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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