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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
613 am CDT Monday Jul 6 2015

..updated for 12z aviation discussion...

Short term...(today through wednesday)
issued at 252 am CDT Monday Jul 6 2015

The potential for heavy rain remains the primary concern starting
this afternoon/evening and continuing periodically through at
least Wednesday and a Flash Flood Watch will be issued for all of
southeast Kansas and portions of south central Kansas. This watch
will be in effect from this evening through Wednesday evening.

A cold front was situated across the High Plains of northwest Kansas
extending north and east across northeast Nebraska early this
morning. Widespread showers and thunderstorms developed along and
north of the front across the northern plains. A shortwave trough
moving across the northern plains states today will help drive the
front south into the Central Plains states this afternoon and
tonight. By 00z...the NAM/GFS are in reasonable agreement driving
the front near the Kansas Turnpike corridor. Dewpoint temperatures
are prognosticated to pool into the lower 70s along and south of the front
resulting in MLCAPES exceeding 2000 j/kg. Minimal cinh/strong
buoyancy along with low-level mass convergence along the front will
result in widespread thunderstorm coverage this afternoon and
evening. Precipitable waters are prognosticated to climb to around 2.25 inches or the
99th percentile this evening while the layer warm cloud depth
deepens considerably along the frontal zone. This deep cloud layer
is expected to result in efficient rain production and the potential
for flash flooding as h9-h75 flow remains parallel to the front
and mesoscale-Beta element vectors are prognosticated to remain less than 15
knots across the area through the evening hours. A large area of
rainfall exceeding 2 inches with locally higher amounts over 3
inches appears likely.

Tue-Wed...higher probabilities for precipitation may reside south of
the area during the day on Tuesday as a stable Post-frontal regime
develops across the Central Plains of Kansas. Another shortwave
trough is prognosticated to lift out of the southern High Plains bringing
increasing chances for deep moist convection including additional
rounds of heavy rainfall Tuesday night into Wednesday. The GFS maintains
the more pronounced 850 mb moisture transport across mainly southeast Kansas
while the NAM would include more of south central Kansas.

Long term...(thursday through sunday)
issued at 252 am CDT Monday Jul 6 2015

Unsettled weather will remain in place across the Central Plains
states at the start of the period as a middle/upper trough remains
anchored across California and the subtropical ridge is confined
to the southeast states. This will keep weak southwest flow across
the Central Plains states allowing the tropical plume of moisture
to remain entrenched across the region. This ridge is prognosticated to
retrograde through the weekend with rising heights/increasing
thickness prognosticated across the Central Plains. This should result in
rising temperatures and lower probabilities for precipitation as
we move through the weekend.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 606 am CDT Monday Jul 6 2015

Cold front stretching from eastern Nebraska to far northwest Kansas
early this morning...will push slowly southward today...reaching
far southeast Kansas to southwest Oklahoma by late tonight.
Scattered thunderstorms should develop along front in central
Kansas around midday or early afternoon...with storm coverage
increasing along front toward evening as it slides into south
central to east central Kansas. Widespread thunderstorms with
heavy rainfall are expected near this front tonight in south
central and southeast Kansas. Restricted visibilities/ceilings can be
expected as these storms move through the taf sites...with
strong/variable wind gusts possible with the strongest storm
cells. South winds will shift to northerly behind the frontal
passage.

Jmc

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 89 65 74 62 / 70 90 40 50
Hutchinson 88 63 75 60 / 80 90 30 30
Newton 88 63 73 61 / 80 90 40 40
Eldorado 89 65 73 62 / 70 90 50 50
Winfield-kwld 91 65 74 63 / 70 90 60 60
Russell 83 61 77 57 / 80 50 10 10
Great Bend 84 61 76 59 / 80 60 10 20
Salina 87 64 77 60 / 90 80 10 20
McPherson 87 62 75 60 / 80 80 20 30
Coffeyville 90 69 75 65 / 50 90 80 90
Chanute 89 67 73 65 / 70 90 80 80
Iola 89 67 72 64 / 70 90 70 80
Parsons-kppf 89 68 74 65 / 60 90 80 90

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Wednesday evening
for ksz069>072-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

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