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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
652 am CDT Sat may 23 2015

..updated for 12z aviation discussion...

Short term...(today through monday)
issued at 302 am CDT Sat may 23 2015

Today-tonight:
extensive clouds/precipitation anticipated with moisture in
place...increasing diffluence ahead of approaching upper
jet...and decent warm air advection at times. Appears that early
in period...bulk of rain will be across southern Kansas...then
shifting north during the day. Renewed convection anticipated
tonight across southeast Kansas as persistent upper diffluence/low
level jet Parks over that area. Flash Flood Watch still looks very
good in southeast Kansas...where significant areal and river flooding
is possible. Threat in western edges of watch appears favor short
term issues with due to excessive runoff. Will not be making any
changes to going watch.

Sun-sun night:
Sun morning will likely see a continuation of precipitation from
Sat night across southeast Kansas . Some breaks possible in the
western half...especially in the morning...but heating will likely
renew convection in the afternoon. Another piece of energy will
likely traverse the area Sun afternoon/early evening. Focus again
appears to be area east of I-35.

Mon:
this in one the most challenging periods of the forecast. Models
suggest precipitation will wane in wake of departing shortwave.
Considerable moisture will remain in place. Models continue to
show instability soaring / 3000+ j/kg / with heating...but only
25-30kts of deep layer shear and little cap. Given lack of obvious
surface boundary...anticipate more Summer-like storms to develop
fairly early in the afternoon and persist into Monday evening.
Locally heavy rain...with low end hail and microbursts look to be
main threats. -Howerton

Long term...(tuesday through friday)

Shortwave exits area at start of period...while western trough
reloads. Subsidence in wake of shortwave should suppress
convection and allow area to dry out a bit. Initialization grids
have low probability of precipitation nearly all periods...and given uncertainty in
transition of upper pattern...hard pressed to go against it. Lack
of well defined surface boundary throughout period further
complicates convection forecast. Temperatures equally questionable
given uncertain cloud/precipitation forecast. Initialization blend
likely the least wrong...with some days in the period being
warmer/some cooler than init...modulated by amount of convection.
-Howerton

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 652 am CDT Sat may 23 2015

For ict-hut-sln-rsl-cnu...widespread IFR to LIFR conditions will
prevail through at least the morning...as low-level moisture
continues to surge north into the area. Latest observational and
short-term model trends suggest a high probability for widespread
showers/thunderstorms to spread northeast across the area from
middle/late morning through the afternoon. Envision later shifts will
need to insert tempo groups for +tsra at all/most sites. Strongest
activity will be capable of gusty winds and locally heavy rain.
As is often the case...ceilings may actually rise to high IFR or MVFR
within the precipitation shield. Another round of
showers/thunderstorms is expected tonight...especially east of the
Kansas Turnpike. IFR ceilings or lower are expected once again
tonight...especially outside of shower/thunderstorm areas.

Adk

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 67 62 73 60 / 90 80 40 30
Hutchinson 65 62 73 60 / 80 70 30 20
Newton 66 62 71 60 / 80 80 50 30
Eldorado 67 63 71 60 / 90 90 60 40
Winfield-kwld 68 63 72 61 / 100 90 50 40
Russell 64 61 74 60 / 60 30 20 30
Great Bend 64 61 73 61 / 70 30 30 30
Salina 65 62 73 60 / 70 70 30 30
McPherson 65 62 72 60 / 80 70 30 30
Coffeyville 72 65 72 63 / 90 100 90 50
Chanute 70 64 72 61 / 90 100 90 50
Iola 70 64 72 61 / 90 100 90 50
Parsons-kppf 71 64 71 62 / 90 100 90 50

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
Flash Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Sunday
afternoon for ksz052-053-068-069-083-092-093.

Flash Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Monday
morning for ksz070>072-094>096-098>100.

&&

$$

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