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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
257 PM CST sun Dec 28 2014

Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 255 PM CST sun Dec 28 2014

No major changes made to inherited forecast. Still expecting a
significant cold snap from Monday evening--Wednesday...as an
Arctic airmass sinks south across mid-America. Temperatures by
dawn Tuesday will range from the low single digits over central Kansas
to near 20 degrees over far southeast Kansas...with below zero wind
chills across much of the area due to Stout north winds.
Additionally...shortwave energy approaching from the west will
support areas of light snow and flurries from late Monday
afternoon--Tuesday...especially northwest of the Kansas Turnpike. Cold
temperatures and deep isothermal layer within preferred snow
growth zone will support snow accumulations of 1 to perhaps 2
inches over central Kansas...highest west of Great Bend to
Lincoln...with a dusting to one-half inch across portions of
south-central and east-central Kansas. However...the last few NAM runs
have bucked the trend and suggested a secondary area of enhanced
lift and associated accumulations up to one inch or so across
south-central Kansas including the Wichita area. This solution could
verify...but for now will go with model consensus and allow later
shifts to fine tune. Despite weak return flow...chilly readings
will continue through Wednesday.

Adk

Long term...(thursday through sunday)
issued at 255 PM CST sun Dec 28 2014

Moderating temperatures expected by Thursday as a southwest Continental U.S.
Trough approaches the Southern Plains. Model consensus continues
to suggest increasing potential for meaningful wintry
precipitation anytime early Friday through early Sunday...but
there remains quite a bit of uncertainty surrounding the
amplitude...phase and speed of the upper trough. GFS ensemble
members are still all over the place...and operational European model (ecmwf)...GFS
and Gem run-to-run consistency remains low. Consequently...not
enough certainty to nail down specifics at this point...so stay
tuned for later forecasts.

Adk

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1124 am CST sun Dec 28 2014

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Surface high pressure is expected to slide east today as
shortwave energy approaches from the northwest. Surface winds will
gradually come around to the south and then southeast tonight but
will remain on the light side.

Ketcham

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 19 39 15 18 / 0 20 20 10
Hutchinson 19 36 11 15 / 0 20 40 10
Newton 20 36 10 15 / 0 20 30 10
Eldorado 20 39 14 19 / 0 10 20 10
Winfield-kwld 21 41 18 22 / 0 10 10 10
Russell 17 28 4 8 / 10 60 60 10
Great Bend 17 30 6 9 / 10 50 60 10
Salina 19 33 9 14 / 0 40 50 10
McPherson 18 35 10 14 / 0 20 40 10
Coffeyville 21 42 21 27 / 0 10 10 10
Chanute 21 41 18 23 / 0 10 10 10
Iola 21 39 17 22 / 0 10 10 10
Parsons-kppf 21 42 20 26 / 0 10 10 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...none.

&&

$$

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