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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
334 PM CDT Monday Apr 27 2015

Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 327 PM CDT Monday Apr 27 2015

Tonight-Tue:
will continue to linger probability of precipitation along OK border tonight as upper low
slowly drifts east. Chances on Tuesday look too low to mention at this
point...although area right on OK border in southeast Kansas might get
clipped by a stray shower. Lows should be slightly cooler in
north with less clouds and drier air. With a bit more insolation
for much of the area on Tuesday...expect highs to warm slightly as
well.

Tuesday night-Thu:
surface high pressure will build over the area. Models are
consistent with vorticity maximum moving through Tuesday night/early
Wednesday with attendent increase in middle/high clouds. At this point low
levels remain quite dry and will keep forecast dry as well...although
sprinkles are possible. -Howerton

Long term...(friday through monday)
issued at 327 PM CDT Monday Apr 27 2015

Models in fairly good agreement with upper flow transition
throughout this period. Ridging will be the rule on Fri-Sat. This
is then quickly replaced by zonal flow for the remainder of the
forecast. With this comes two issues...potential for weak ripples
in the flow and possibility of convection over High Plains
rolling into the area overnight. At this point...best chances will
be in the night periods in central Kansas...with chances increasing
for sun/Monday as a more substantial shortwave appears to be moving
through. -Howerton

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1245 PM CDT Monday Apr 27 2015

Aviation concerns are expected to remain minimal through the next
24 hours and likely beyond.

Upper low continues to churn over the Texas Panhandle with this
feature expected to move very slow over the next 24 hours. By 12z
Tuesday the upper low will be over northeast Texas and approaching the
arklatex region. Scattered showers will continue to affect far southwest
portions of the forecast area overnight but expected to stay far
enough south to miss all taf sites. Confidence is high that
ceilings will remain at VFR levels with winds coming around to the
northeast and eventually north.

Lawson

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 45 67 44 73 / 20 10 0 0
Hutchinson 42 66 43 72 / 10 0 0 0
Newton 43 66 44 71 / 10 0 0 0
Eldorado 45 67 44 71 / 10 10 0 10
Winfield-kwld 46 67 43 73 / 40 10 0 10
Russell 40 68 45 72 / 0 0 10 0
Great Bend 41 67 43 72 / 10 0 0 0
Salina 42 68 44 72 / 0 0 10 0
McPherson 41 67 44 72 / 10 0 0 0
Coffeyville 47 65 43 72 / 30 10 10 0
Chanute 46 66 44 72 / 10 10 0 0
Iola 46 66 43 71 / 10 10 0 0
Parsons-kppf 47 66 43 72 / 20 10 0 0

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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