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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
530 am CST Tuesday Mar 3 2015

..updated for 12z aviation discussion...

Synopsis...
issued at 306 am CST Tuesday Mar 3 2015

Currently have a shortwave trough stretching from Saskatchewan
down to Southern California. There are two main pieces of energy within
this trough...one rotating just off of the Southern California coast and
another over the northern/central rockies. At the surface...low
pressure is situated over northwest Kansas/northeast Colorado with a strong cold
front stretching from northern Minnesota into far northwest Nebraska.

&&

Short term...(today through wednesday)
issued at 306 am CST Tuesday Mar 3 2015

Models seem to have converged on a similar frontal timing
solution which is slightly slower than previous runs. This should
allow for much of south central and southeast Kansas to get into the low-middle
50s ahead of the front. Southwest/west downslope winds just ahead
of the front will also aid to bump temperatures up today. May even get a
few hours of heating over central Kansas this morning before the front
surges through. Not expecting much in the way of precipitation today as
the better dynamics come into play tonight.

Models have gone through a change since last night's runs which
may lead to more lift and precipitation overnight into Wednesday. This is due
to all of the models now showing more backing in the middle levels
after 06z tonight...which leads to increased warm advection. The
NAM is by far the strongest with the warm advection and lift and
also has the lift further north compared to the GFS/ECMWF/Gem. The
impulse to track across the Central Plains today will also tighten
the middle level baroclinic zone across central Kansas tonight into Wednesday
morning and this is depicted by multiple models. So current
thinking is that precipitation will increase in coverage after 06z
Wednesday...especially over southern Kansas. Increased frontogenesis may
lead to a quickly moving band of snow around 12z Wednesday that may
start up in central Kansas and quickly dive south. While not
completely discounting the strength of the warm advection with the
NAM...currently have a lean to the GFS/European model (ecmwf) which would put the
higher snow totals over southern Kansas...close to the OK border. For
now will run with amounts in the 1-2 inch range from roughly 06z-
18z Wednesday. May see a freezing rain/sleet mix tonight over far southeast Kansas before
the warm wedge is eroded. Will not run with any headlines at this
time...but if models continue this trend...wouldn't be shocked if
a few counties bordering OK are put into a low end advisory.

Precipitation will quickly come to an end Wednesday evening as the shortwave
trough finally swings through.

Long term...(thursday through monday)
issued at 306 am CST Tuesday Mar 3 2015

Medium range models remain consistent in keeping northwest flow
over the plains through these extended periods. While this pattern
will likely not result in well above normal temperatures...it will result
in temperatures close to or a few degrees above normal which will be a
fairly big change compared to the last week. While there will be
some weak impulses tracking down across The Rockies and into the
miss valley...they do not look to provide any significant chances
for rainfall. Looking ahead into the middle of next week...both
the GFS and European model (ecmwf) agree on a significant pattern change with SW
flow aloft overspreading the plains. This should lead to a continued
warming trend.

Lawson

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 527 am CST Tuesday Mar 3 2015

Poor aviation conditions will continue across south central/southeast
Kansas during the early morning hours...however conditions will
begin improve this morning as low cloud heights rise and scatter
out from west to east. Meanwhile...a strong cold front will race
southward across the region today with gusty north winds in its
wake. Could see some light snow develop across southern Kansas
towards day break on Wednesday.

Jakub

&&

Fire weather...
issued at 306 am CST Tuesday Mar 3 2015

Fire danger concerns are expected to remain on the low side
through the next few days.

A strong cold front is expected to pass across the area today.
Southwest winds this morning will give way to northerly winds
over central Kansas by the early afternoon hours...with winds finally
Flipping to the north over southeast Kansas toward sunset. While winds will
increase this afternoon behind the front over central Kansas...they
will only gust in the 20-25 miles per hour range and the cooler air spilling
south keeping rh's on the high side. Much colder air will be in
place on Wednesday which will keep rh's up. Winds on Wednesday will be out of
the northeast in the 12-16 miles per hour range.

Lawson

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 51 19 27 13 / 10 40 50 10
Hutchinson 47 16 27 11 / 10 40 40 10
Newton 49 17 27 12 / 10 30 40 10
Eldorado 51 20 26 13 / 10 30 40 10
Winfield-kwld 54 19 26 13 / 20 40 50 10
Russell 41 14 27 5 / 10 40 30 0
Great Bend 43 15 27 4 / 10 50 50 10
Salina 44 14 28 10 / 10 20 20 10
McPherson 47 16 28 11 / 10 30 30 10
Coffeyville 54 20 26 13 / 30 50 60 10
Chanute 52 18 26 12 / 20 30 50 10
Iola 52 18 26 12 / 20 30 40 10
Parsons-kppf 53 19 26 12 / 20 50 50 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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