Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1138 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 19 2014
..updated for 06z aviation discussion...
Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 308 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 19 2014
Middle/upper air analysis shows heights increasing some across the
plains today...as an upper low begins to dig into the western coast
of the US. This will lead to temperatures a little warmer today and
surface dewpoints a little bit lower.
The warmer temperatures and slightly drier dewpoints will be the story for
the next couple of days...as middle level flow begins to become more
southwesterly as the low in the western US remains stationary through
Thursday. This will lead to warm temperatures across the plains and
temperature/dewpoint combinations flirting with but just below heat
advisory criteria... especially over southeast Kansas where dewpoints will will
be a tick or two higher.
Warmer temperatures will also increase aloft as well. This will
effectively cap off any shower/storm chances for the area late this
afternoon into this evening.
Strong low level moisture transport is expected to race north into
southern Nebraska tonight...which will keep any overnight storm development
well to the north of the forecast area. GFS is a little further
south (along the Nebraska/Kansas border) with the 850-700h fn-convergence
associated with this moisture transport than the NAM/WRF. Which
could lead to storms possibly propagating into central Kansas late
tonight. But think the NAM/WRF has the right idea of pushing the
moisture transport further north into central Nebraska. So will keep the
precipitation mention out of central Kansas overnight.
The warm temperatures at the surface and aloft will lead to more of the hot
late Summer temperatures for Wednesday/Thursday as well. So will keep Wednesday dry as
well...as cap looks to hold tight across the forecast area with
storm chances once again focused further north into central Nebraska.
Will keep some small probability of precipitation in for central Kansas for Thursday evening...as the
Lee side trough begins to set up across northwest Kansas....as middle level flow
begins to transition to more of SW flow. This will lead to possible
storm development in the High Plains possibly propagating into
central Kansas late Thursday evening and overnight Thursday.
Long term...(friday through tuesday)
issued at 308 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 19 2014
Flow pattern looks to remain out of the SW into the weekend. Latest
European model (ecmwf) and the GFS keep the Lee side trough firmly in place along the
Front Range of The Rockies for Friday and possibly into Sat. So most
shower and storm chances will be located over the High Plains...with
storms propagating out of northwest Kansas and possibly into central Kansas on Friday
evening. Both the medium range models showing a lot weaker exit of
the western US shortwave into the plains...with the models now keeping
any kind of frontal boundary to the west-northwest of the forecast area for
Sat. So chance of storms on Sat will probably be confined to central
Kansas...where propagation may take any High Plains storms. Models still
advertising a weak frontal boundary will drift across the forecast
area for sun/Mon...so will keep chance probability of precipitation in for this.
With slower arrival of the frontal boundary...maximum temperatures for Friday/Sat
now looking more like Wednesday-Thursday highs in the upper 90s...and a slight
cool down still expected for sun/Mon.
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1138 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 19 2014
VFR conditions expected to prevail through the forecast valid period.
Ridge aloft will reside across the area tonight and Wednesday.
Mesoscale convective system developing across southwest Nebraska is
expected to track east over southern Nebraska tonight...remaining
well north of the area. Diurnally gusty southerly surface winds
are expected to the east of the Lee side trough on Wednesday...
mainly along and west of the Kansas Turnpike in the afternoon.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 72 98 76 98 / 0 0 0 10
Hutchinson 72 98 76 98 / 0 0 0 10
Newton 72 97 76 97 / 0 0 0 10
Eldorado 72 98 76 98 / 0 0 0 10
Winfield-kwld 73 98 75 98 / 0 0 0 10
Russell 71 96 74 97 / 10 10 10 20
Great Bend 71 96 75 97 / 10 10 0 10
Salina 72 100 76 99 / 10 10 0 10
McPherson 71 98 76 98 / 0 0 0 10
Coffeyville 73 99 74 99 / 0 0 0 10
Chanute 72 98 74 98 / 0 10 0 10
Iola 72 98 74 97 / 10 10 0 10
Parsons-kppf 73 99 74 98 / 0 10 0 10