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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1144 PM CDT Thursday Jul 10 2014

..updated for 06z aviation discussion...

Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 331 PM CDT Thursday Jul 10 2014

Tonight-Sat:
main change to going forecast was to back off on maxes through
Sat. Significant rainfall over roughly the eastern half of the
area will impact high temperatures as significant amount of insolation
GOES to evaporation. Temperatures however should get a boost a bit
from downslope flow on Sat. The cooler temperatures have reduced
the threat of triple digit heat indices on Fri/Sat.

Sat night-Sun:
continues to be a fair amount of wobble as to when/where front
will be during this period...but either way...small chances
justified for far northern sections by late Sat with chances
expanding south on sun. Both GFS/European model (ecmwf) have been consistent
keeping most probability of precipitation north of surface boundary. Chances will likely
increase Sun night across south central/southeast Kansas as surface moves
south of border. Triple digit heat indices appear likely for
Sunday afternoon across south central/southeast Kansas. -Howerton

Long term...(monday through thursday)
issued at 331 PM CDT Thursday Jul 10 2014

Precipitation chances continue to look fairly good early in this
period...especially Monday night south of Highway 400. By Tuesday...
drier/cooler air will filter into the area. Both GFS/European model (ecmwf) are
pushing the front and unseasonably cool airmass well south of the
forecast area. With 1020 millibar surface high moving into Central
Plains...will see several days of well below normal temperatures.
Forecast was limited by consensus...but appears highs may only be
in the middle 70s by Wednesday and several degrees cooler than forecast on
Thursday. Nixed precipitation beyond Monday night with drier air well
entrenched over the area and have doubts about timing of return
moisture at the end of the period. -Howerton

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1134 PM CDT Thursday Jul 10 2014

Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through
the next 24 hours.

Even though there is some 850-700mb moisture transport along with
isentropic lift in the 310-315k layer...feel that weak middle and
upper ridging will keep showers and storms from developing
tonight. Lee troughing and associated south winds will strengthen
by Friday afternoon with some gusts approaching 30 miles per hour possible over
central Kansas. Confidence remains high that VFR conditions will
remain in place.

Lawson

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 71 94 74 96 / 10 10 0 10
Hutchinson 72 95 74 96 / 10 10 0 10
Newton 71 93 74 94 / 10 10 0 10
Eldorado 71 93 73 95 / 10 10 0 10
Winfield-kwld 71 94 73 97 / 10 10 0 10
Russell 73 96 75 96 / 10 10 10 20
Great Bend 73 95 74 96 / 10 10 10 10
Salina 72 98 75 97 / 10 10 10 10
McPherson 72 96 74 96 / 10 10 0 10
Coffeyville 71 93 71 99 / 10 10 0 10
Chanute 71 93 72 97 / 10 10 0 10
Iola 71 93 72 96 / 10 10 0 10
Parsons-kppf 71 93 71 98 / 10 10 0 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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