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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
239 am CDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015

Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 239 am CDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015

Upper ridge axis will remain situated across the area the next
few days with only a slight change in its orientation through the
middle-week periods. A weak mesoscale enhanced shortwave aloft will
migrate northeast today and fringe north central areas of Kansas
to along the I-70 corridor. This may promote isolated or widely
scattered convection focused just east of the Lee side surface
trough over western Kansas...which could move east-northeast into
central Kansas later today and tonight. This is reflected well
in the going forecast. Diurnally gusty southerly surface flow
will prevail each afternoon to the east of the Lee trough for
locations along/west of the Turnpike through Thursday. Little
change in low level thickness and thermal fields suggest that
temperatures should show little day to day variations...so will
take a persistence approach to maximum and min temperatures. While
chances for evening/early morning convection will remain
non-zero across central Kansas after tonight into Wednesday
morning...will keep the forecast dry for now Wednesday night
into Thursday.

Darmofal

Long term...(friday through monday)
issued at 239 am CDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015

The medium range continues to develop a longwave upper trough
over the northwest Continental U.S. Late in the week...with the European model (ecmwf) a bit
stronger/further south with a closed low over the weekend into
far northern Nevada/southern Idaho. This feature will then lift
to the northeast over the northern rockies into south central
Canada by early next week. A surface cold front will venture
south into the Central Plains by Monday. However it is debatable
how far south this front will push across Kansas as some
semblance of the upper ridge could hold sway across southern
Kansas. For now will make little change to the going forecast
with slight to modest precipitation/convective chances that may develop
gradually south from Sunday into Monday across the forecast area.

Ked

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1138 PM CDT Monday Aug 31 2015

No significant adjustments made to previous set of tafs. An elongated
ridge of high pressure aloft will prevail over the south-Central
Plains...with coincident Lee surface troughing over the High
Plains. This will maintain diurnally gusty southerly winds. A more
mixy boundary layer overnight and slightly less rich boundary
layer moisture should preclude anything more than transient MVFR
br at cnu...and have left it out of the cnu taf at this time. Convection
near the Kansas/Colorado border should weaken overnight as it propagates
northeastward into a more capped environment. Convection may have
a slightly better chance coming off the High Plains Tuesday
night...perhaps reaching central Kansas (rsl terminal) late...most
likely after 06z.

Jmc

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 94 70 94 70 / 0 10 10 0
Hutchinson 94 70 95 70 / 10 10 10 10
Newton 93 70 93 70 / 0 10 10 0
Eldorado 92 69 92 70 / 0 0 10 0
Winfield-kwld 94 70 94 70 / 0 0 10 0
Russell 96 71 96 71 / 20 20 20 10
Great Bend 96 70 96 71 / 10 20 10 10
Salina 95 71 95 71 / 10 20 20 10
McPherson 95 70 95 70 / 10 10 10 10
Coffeyville 92 69 92 69 / 0 0 0 0
Chanute 91 68 91 69 / 0 0 0 0
Iola 91 68 91 69 / 0 0 0 0
Parsons-kppf 91 69 91 69 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

$$

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