Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
341 am CST Thursday Nov 26 2015
Short term...(today through saturday)
issued at 337 am CST Thursday Nov 26 2015
Current synoptic pattern/satellite water vapor imagery shows upper
level low spinning over the southwestern states with elongated
southwest flow regime stretching all the way into the Great Lakes
and northeastern states...meanwhile another upper level wave was
dropping southward across Canada early this morning towards the
northern states. This northern wave will enhance the upper level jet
winds with-in the upper level southwest flow regime and provide
strong upper dynamics and re-enforce the push of low-level cold air
across the Central Plains. This is a typical synoptic weather
pattern setup for icing events across the region.
Deep isentropic ascent/moisture transport will begin to increase
during the morning hours for areas along and just behind surface
front over central/south central Kansas...with widespread
showers/embedded thunderstorms expected. This activity will spread
into southeast Kansas for this afternoon and continue through the
late evening hours. Heavy rainfall and possible flooding is a
concern over far southeast Kansas due to unseasonably rich Gulf
moisture and training effects in play.
Now the other hazard of concern is freezing rain potential across
much of central/south central Kansas this period...as colder sub-
freezing air undercuts this warmer moist air aloft. The surface cold
front will continue to surge southward today with surface
temperatures dropping below freezing across parts of central Kansas
this afternoon...and ice accumulation from freezing rain/mixed with
sleet at times should begin to impact locations mainly northwest of
a Salina to Hutchinson line late this afternoon. The transition
line will sink southward tonight with the activity gradually
winding down some...however another upper level wave will produce
a second round of freezing rain across mainly south central
Kansas for Friday/Friday night. Expected surface temperatures in
the 20s would create efficient ice accumulation and the gusty
north winds would only worsen the conditions. Expected ice
accumulations across the advisory/warning areas will range from
0.10 to 0.40 inches.
Headlines could be extended into Saturday as the system is still
over the area with lingering freezing rain/sleet still possible.
Long term...(sunday through wednesday)
issued at 337 am CST Thursday Nov 26 2015
Long range models show main upper level system from the southwestern
states finally lifting northeast across The Rockies and out into
the northern plains for Sunday into Monday. This will bring one last
remaining shot of winter weather to the region...with lighter precipitation
amounts expected across mainly central Kansas and rain across
southeast Kansas. Otherwise...dry weather expected thereafter with
cooler below normal temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1146 PM CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015
The aviation forecast remains much the same as the previous one.
Conditions deteriorating throughout the forecast as a cold front
moves through the area. The front is on top of ksln and moving
into khut in the next couple hours. It should reach kict by
morning and by afternoon/evening at kcnu. Low clouds are
developing with the warm moist advection ahead of the front.
Drizzle may develop in these areas before rain showers increase
during the morning hours. Behind the front low clouds are also
moving in and are expected to continue to deteriorate in criteria
through the forecast.
Precipitation will begin as liquid...transitioning to freezing
rain towards the afternoon at krsl and towards 00z at ksln/kgbd
and reaching khut/kict between 00z-06z. Sleet may mix in at
krsl/ksln as the colder air infiltrates and the warm nose aloft is
MVFR to IFR and possibly as low as LIFR conditions are expected
to prevail through most of the forecast.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 56 28 28 27 / 100 100 80 60
Hutchinson 45 26 26 25 / 100 90 80 50
Newton 50 28 28 26 / 100 90 80 50
Eldorado 60 30 31 28 / 100 100 80 60
Winfield-kwld 61 32 32 29 / 100 100 90 70
Russell 34 22 25 22 / 80 60 40 30
Great Bend 37 23 25 22 / 90 70 60 30
Salina 41 25 26 25 / 100 90 70 30
McPherson 43 26 26 25 / 100 90 80 50
Coffeyville 64 36 37 34 / 100 100 90 70
Chanute 62 34 35 32 / 100 100 90 60
Iola 62 34 34 32 / 100 100 90 60
Parsons-kppf 63 35 36 34 / 100 100 90 70
Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Friday afternoon for
Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 am CST Saturday
Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 6 am CST Saturday for
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 am CST
Saturday for ksz049-094-098.