Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
622 PM CDT sun may 24 2015

..updated for 00z aviation discussion...

issued at 254 PM CDT sun may 24 2015

Water vapor imagery shows a number of impulses rotating through
the broad upper trough. One is lifting over north central
Texas/southern OK with another one lifting across eastern Colorado. Last
but not least a small compact piece of energy is diving southeast
across the desert SW. At the surface...a broad area of Lee
troughing remains in place with a mesoscale low along the OK/Arkansas border.


Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 254 PM CDT sun may 24 2015

Regional 88d's show a pronounced circulation lifting north across
central OK with a very slow but persistent area of moderate
showers remaining over north central OK through most of the
morning and afternoon hours. The best precipitation chances will be this
evening as the wave lifts across eastern Kansas but with the higher
precipitable waters and better moisture transport east of the forecast area...not
expecting the high rainfall rates we got last night. Will go ahead
and let the Flood Watch continue and let the evening shift cancel
once the precipitation comes to an end. Convection is already developing
over eastern Colorado associated with the vorticity maximum lifting across with
some of this activity expected to move into west-central Kansas late
tonight. Will therefore linger some probability of precipitation over central Kansas after

Models still remain consistent in forecasting extreme instability
over much of the forecast area with minimal capping for Monday
afternoon. However...there won't be much in the way of a surface
feature to focus development. Feel the most likely area for deep
daytime convection will be over central Kansas which will be closer to
the upper wave. Lack of deep layer shear will limit the higher end
severe but with that much instability...can't rule out some large
hail or wet microburst winds. Meanwhile...the wave over the desert
SW will move out into the Southern Plains and will lift across
central/eastern OK Monday afternoon/evening. While this will bring
some rain chances to southeast Kansas...the widespread heavy rain will stay
southeast of the forecast area. We should get an overall lull in
activity for Tuesday as the main upper wave lifts off into the miss
valley. Some High Plains convection looks likely Tuesday afternoon
with the thinking it should stay west of the forecast area during
daylight hours with an overall increase in convection Tuesday evening
as the weak shortwave slides across Kansas.

Long term...(wednesday through sunday)
issued at 254 PM CDT sun may 24 2015

The pattern looks to remain active through these extended periods.

While widespread precipitation is not expected for Wednesday...with an
uncapped airmass and plenty of instability...can't rule out scattered
to isolated storms. Better shower and storm chances look to arrive Wednesday
night as some upper energy moves out across the area. Both the
European model (ecmwf) and GFS agree on a more robust upper wave affecting the
southern/Central Plains for the Thursday night through Sat time frame
and will thus carry high probability of precipitation for this time period.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 617 PM CDT sun may 24 2015

Shortwave trough from south central Kansas to eastern Oklahoma
will track northeast out of eastern Kansas by 06z tonight...while
a secondary vorticity lobe tracks northeast out of eastern Colorado
into Nebraska. The first shortwave will result in widespread
showers and isolated thunderstorms in south central through
eastern Kansas this evening...before tapering and likely ending
overnight. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should move
across northwest Kansas this evening/overnight and may get as far east
as rsl.

Otherwise...if middle-high cloudiness can thin out will
aide in low stratus development and possibly fog across much of
the area which will persist into Monday morning.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 59 79 61 79 / 90 20 30 10
Hutchinson 58 79 59 78 / 30 20 30 20
Newton 57 79 59 77 / 40 20 30 10
Eldorado 59 80 62 79 / 80 20 30 10
Winfield-kwld 58 80 60 80 / 80 20 30 10
Russell 56 77 55 78 / 30 30 30 20
Great Bend 56 77 56 78 / 30 20 30 20
Salina 58 78 60 79 / 20 30 30 20
McPherson 57 79 58 78 / 20 20 30 20
Coffeyville 59 79 61 79 / 90 30 50 10
Chanute 60 78 61 78 / 90 30 50 10
Iola 60 78 61 78 / 100 30 40 10
Parsons-kppf 60 78 61 79 / 90 30 50 10


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until 1 am CDT Monday for ksz053-069-083-092-

Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for ksz070>072-094>096-



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations