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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
321 PM CDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014

Synopsis...
issued at 321 PM CDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014

A surface front is wavering around south central Kansas with
temperatures soaring into the middle to upper 90s across south
central Kansas nearest the boundary. Skies are mostly clear across
central...south central and southeast Kansas except for some high
clouds streaming eastward from the remnants of Odile. The boundary
could become a focus for storms to develop this evening over
southeast Kansas.

Billings Wright

&&

Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 321 PM CDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014

Through the short term there are two periods to focus on...tonight
into tomorrow morning and then Saturday and Sunday.

The first is tonight into tomorrow morning. The frontal boundary
is situated across south central and southeast Kansas as of this
issuance. Thunderstorm development along the front this evening
and overnight is possible although coverage is questionable. If
storms develop they are most likely to develop over southeast
Kansas with development spreading northwestward during the
overnight to early morning periods. With some modest shear over
southeast Kansas and moderate cape...some of the storms that
develop this evening into the overnight period could be strong to
marginally severe. By morning the concern will become fog. Expect
visibilities to drop in areas from central to south central Kansas
where moisture will pool north of the boundary. Some areas may
drop to 1/2 mile.

The second and more impactful period is Saturday into Sunday. The
remnants of Odile will move across the region. The latest guidance
continues to show the track of the highest quantitative precipitation forecast across southern
Kansas/northern Oklahoma. Have increased probability of precipitation to account for
enhanced confidence. Widespread areas of 1 to 2 inches of rain is
possible across southern Kansas with some areas seeing more. Most
of the rain will fall on Saturday and will linger on Sunday before
drier air moves in. Will want to watch this period as it nears as
the track of the heaviest rain may change some. This will be
beneficial rain...but it could cause some flooding issues.

Billings Wright

Long term...(monday through wednesday)
issued at 321 PM CDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014

Surface high pressure will move across Iowa Monday and Tuesday
causing winds to be easterly and cool across Kansas. Currently
expecting highs in the 70s through the extended. Another
disturbance will move in from the northwest which will bring
another chance for rain across much of the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

Billings Wright

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1208 PM CDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014

A cold front will sink southward across the area this afternoon
and tonight. This front may provide a focus for storms across
portions of south central and southeast Kansas this afternoon and
evening. Moist easterly Post-frontal flow will likely result in
widespread MVFR ceilings/visibilities after 03-06z. A secondary
concern will be isolated to widely scattered storm development
tonight above the frontal zone possibly impacting taf sites
across south central and southeast Kansas. Reduced flight
categories will likely linger through the morning hours on
Thursday as Post-frontal easterly flow persists across the area.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 67 88 68 89 / 20 20 10 0
Hutchinson 66 87 67 89 / 20 20 10 0
Newton 65 85 66 87 / 30 20 10 10
Eldorado 66 86 67 88 / 30 30 10 10
Winfield-kwld 68 87 68 87 / 20 20 10 10
Russell 65 87 66 89 / 20 10 10 10
Great Bend 64 88 67 89 / 20 10 10 10
Salina 66 85 67 90 / 30 30 10 10
McPherson 66 85 66 88 / 30 20 10 10
Coffeyville 67 84 66 86 / 40 30 10 10
Chanute 66 81 65 86 / 40 30 10 10
Iola 65 79 65 85 / 40 30 10 10
Parsons-kppf 66 83 66 86 / 40 30 10 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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