Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
259 am CST Friday Nov 21 2014

Synopsis...
issued at 300 am CST Friday Nov 21 2014

In the upper levels a trough is situated over the eastern Great
Lakes and heading into the northeast. Additional shortwave energy
is tracking over Southern California and heading into the desert SW. At
the surface...high pressure is centered over the Ohio Valley with
rich moisture streaming north across the Southern Plains. A warm
front stretches across northern Arkansas into central OK.

&&

Short term...(today through sunday)
issued at 300 am CST Friday Nov 21 2014

Confidence in freezing drizzle had decreased significantly with a
good chance we may not be below freezing when precipitation starts this
morning. In addition...the onset of any precipitation looks to be after
12z when we should start warming up. Strong isentropic lift in the
295-300k layer is resulting in low clouds rapidly developing over
OK and will overspread the area this morning. Light rain and
drizzle will eventually move in by 15z as the column continues to
saturate down. Light rain will remain for areas along and
southeast of the Turnpike tonight as rich low level moisture
continues to stream into the region. A thunderstorm or two will
also be possible tonight as some elevated instability works in
from the south.

The upper wave will move out of the southwest and across the
Southern Plains on Sat. This will increase middle level moisture
transport allowing precipitation to be more widespread across OK along
with southeast and parts of south central Kansas. As this impulse slides
across the southern miss valley on sun...additional shortwave
energy is expected to quickly dive out of Great Basin and across
the Southern Plains by early sun evening. This will allow rain
chances to linger across mainly southeast Kansas on sun.

Even with plenty of clouds today...temperatures are still expected to
warm into the 40s and 50s as the warm front surges north. Not out
of the question to get readings in the 60s on Sat as this warm
moist airmass continues to modify.

Long term...(monday through thursday)
issued at 300 am CST Friday Nov 21 2014

Upper troughing is expected to remain over rockies into the plains
to start the work week with the positive orientation of this
trough limiting moisture across the plains. While temperatures maybe a
few degrees below normal...a significant cool down is not
expected through Wednesday. There is some signs in the models that
another cold surge maybe setting up for the end of the week...but
there is enough discrepancies between the GFS and European model (ecmwf) to be
cautious...but will be something to watch.

Lawson

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1130 PM CST Thursday Nov 20 2014

With wide temperature/dewpoint differentials plus short-term model soundings
indicating stratus not reaching SC & southeast Kansas until ~12z have delayed
onset of IFR ceilings until closer to daybreak. Once these terminals
deteriorate to IFR/LIFR status they will remain socked in through
21/06z & likely beyond. The -fzdz potential is however diminishing
for the rest of the tonight.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 47 37 61 47 / 30 20 30 30
Hutchinson 45 34 60 45 / 20 10 20 20
Newton 45 36 60 47 / 30 20 30 30
Eldorado 48 40 61 48 / 30 20 30 40
Winfield-kwld 52 42 61 49 / 30 30 40 40
Russell 46 30 58 37 / 10 10 0 10
Great Bend 46 31 58 41 / 10 10 10 10
Salina 44 34 59 45 / 20 10 10 10
McPherson 45 34 59 45 / 20 10 20 20
Coffeyville 55 51 61 47 / 50 50 60 60
Chanute 50 47 59 48 / 50 40 50 50
Iola 49 46 59 48 / 50 40 50 50
Parsons-kppf 54 49 59 47 / 50 50 60 60

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations