Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1144 PM CST Thursday Nov 27 2014
..updated for 06z aviation discussion...
Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 307 PM CST Thursday Nov 27 2014
Tngt: quiet weather for any evening Thanksgiving activities...though
a little chilly...with temperatures falling into the 30s overnight.
Weak warm advection returns during the early morning hours...thus
central and perhaps south central Kansas may see lowest temperatures
well before the pre-dawn hours.
Friday-Sat: early part of Thanksgiving weekend looks pleasant. Decent
warmup with tightening low level gradient and both downslope warming
and low level warm air advection. 800 mb thermal ridge of 12-16 degree c
oriented just south of I-70 corridor on Friday...which displaces
along the OK-Kansas border on Saturday with 800 mb temperatures creeping up into
the 18-20c range. Surface to 800 mb wind flow fairly unidirectional
both days...though surface flow slackens somewhat on Saturday. Bufr
soundings refining mixing only to about 900mb...which will translate
into temperatures in the middle to upper 50s south central and southeast
Kansas...and lower 60s central Kansas. Temperatures on Saturday
look to be about category warmer.
Sun: the nice Holiday weekend weather comes to an end on
Sunday...as both short term models show a rather vigorous
shortwave moving across the Canadian...carving broad trough across
central Continental U.S.. passage of short wave in turn will drive an Arctic
cold front into the plains for Sun morning. Timing of the front
through bulk of County Warning Area still looks to be during the morning
hours...thus insolation will be battling warm air advection...thus
expect atypical diurnal temperature trend with warmest readings in
the morning. The front is expected to arrive soon enough in
central Kansas to produce steady or falling temperatures for most of the
day...with temperatures in southeast Kansas possibly again reaching the
Gulf remains cutoff...and relative humidity moisture profiles appear scant for bulk
of County Warning Area...so expecting a dry frontal passage. Exception may be
extreme southeast Kansas where enough cold/warm conveyor belt
moisture may wrap around surface low to saturate h9 to 700 mb levels and
squeeze out a few sprinkles due to isentropic ascent. Aside from
falling temperatures the most notable weather will be gusty
northerly winds...perhaps up to 30 miles per hour.
Long term...(monday through thursday)
issued at 307 PM CST Thursday Nov 27 2014
Mon: Monday looks to be a rather raw day with cold advection and
gusty winds continuing. Some stratus may be located across southeast
Kansas...further capping warm-up potential. Combination of a
nebulous upper level disturbance enhancing weak isentropic ascent
again may squeeze out very light precipitation in southeast Kansas.
Thermal and moisture profiles suggest perhaps light freezing
drizzle...however confidence that any materializes.
Tuesday-Thu: upper flow transitions quickly to quasi-zonal
pattern...thus expect temperatures to rebound toward seasonal
normals for early decemeber. Overall ensembles look rather
mixed...with quite a bit of variance in the gefs members with regard
to the southern stream... as well as their operational counterparts.
Gefs showing more consistency with northern stream vortex...which
deepens over Central Plains Wed-Thu. Again...moisture looks scant...
but there is some indication that ridging along Gulf Coast will
break down soon enough to allow better moisture return into at least
southeast Kansas. Again...confidence in any significant measurable
precipitation is on the low side.
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1142 PM CST Thursday Nov 27 2014
VFR conditions to prevail during the forecast valid period.
Northwesterly flow aloft will allow occasional middle-high level
cloudiness to stream southeastward across Kansas overnight into
Friday. Lee trough will remain persistent into Friday...keeping
southerly winds in place. South winds will become gusty along and
east of the Kansas Turnpike Friday...with gusts of 23-28 knots
expected at ict and cnu terminals. The gusts will drop off toward
early Friday evening with winds remaining southerly.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 31 59 39 65 / 0 0 0 0
Hutchinson 30 61 34 64 / 0 0 0 0
Newton 31 58 38 62 / 0 0 0 0
Eldorado 33 59 42 64 / 0 0 0 0
Winfield-kwld 32 60 42 65 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 28 65 32 64 / 0 0 0 0
Great Bend 30 65 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
Salina 30 61 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
McPherson 30 62 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
Coffeyville 31 61 46 68 / 0 0 0 0
Chanute 29 57 44 65 / 0 0 0 0
Iola 29 57 44 65 / 0 0 0 0
Parsons-kppf 30 58 44 67 / 0 0 0 0