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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1138 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2015

..updated for 06z aviation discussion...

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 256 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2015

A low pressure system centered over Hudson Bay and encompassing
much of the eastern Continental U.S. Will send a trough in the middle levels
through on Sunday night which is still doubtful that there will be
any influence in Kansas. High pressure attempts to maintain its
hold on the south central Continental U.S....but there will still be weak
waves from the mentioned low and in advance of another one for
this time frame. Precipitation chances were left in for Monday and
Tuesday with this pattern. Only minor tweaks were made the ongoing
forecast which will keep temperatures near normal values in the
lower 90s.

Juanita

Long term...(wednesday through saturday)
issued at 256 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2015

In the middle and upper levels...the ridge over the West Coast breaks
down at the start of the week as the low migrates south from
British Columbia. This will bring several weak waves in advance of
this system. The strongest activity will be towards the end of the
week as the northern troughs are on track for a near collision
course. Models differ in system placement at 850mb during the
latter time frame with the best agreement in the very last period
which could be a toss up at this point. Chances of precipitation
towards the end of the week are currently tracked to be mainly
across central Kansas on Thursday and Friday evening which may or
may not pan out given the timing of the system and any afternoon
heating initiated development further west.

Juanita

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2015

VFR conditions are expected for most taf sites for the next 24
hours. The only exception will be near the kcnu taf site early on
Sun morning. Could see some patchy fog reduce visibilities to MVFR across
southeast Kansas. So will go with a 3sm br for the kcnu taf for this chance
from 10-14z/sun. Could see some isolated 1/2sm fog...but will not
mention this in the taf. Lots of uncertainty in this chance.

Ketcham

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 72 93 71 95 / 20 10 10 10
Hutchinson 71 93 70 95 / 20 10 10 10
Newton 71 92 70 94 / 20 10 10 10
Eldorado 70 92 70 94 / 20 10 10 10
Winfield-kwld 71 93 71 95 / 20 10 10 10
Russell 69 95 69 96 / 20 10 10 10
Great Bend 69 94 69 95 / 20 10 10 10
Salina 71 95 71 97 / 20 10 10 10
McPherson 71 94 70 96 / 20 10 10 10
Coffeyville 71 92 69 94 / 20 10 10 10
Chanute 70 92 69 94 / 20 10 10 10
Iola 70 92 68 94 / 20 10 10 10
Parsons-kppf 70 93 69 95 / 20 10 10 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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