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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
236 PM CDT Monday Sep 1 2014

Synopsis...
issued at 236 PM CDT Monday Sep 1 2014

Water vapor imagery shows one shortwave trough lifting over the
western Great Lakes with another piece of energy tracking southeast
out of central Wyoming. At the surface...the synoptic cold front
extends from eastern MO to near kict and finally into the OK
Panhandle. An outflow boundary...from early morning convection...stretches
from near kavk to kpnc and to just north of Tulsa. This feature
has been very slowly lifting north and is very evident on visible
satellite imagery.

&&

Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 236 PM CDT Monday Sep 1 2014

The best potential for daytime surface based storms looks to be
along the outflow that is lifting slowly north out of northern OK
with southeast Kansas looking fairly stable with plenty of low clouds.
Another favorable area may be southeast of Pratt...where the outflow
boundary and synoptic cold front intersect. Better convective
coverage looks to be just after dark as moisture transport and
isentropic lift increases in the 310-315k layer...especially
southeast of the Kansas Turnpike. Any storm late this afternoon or
tonight will have a good chance of becoming severe with 0-6km
shear in the 45-55kt range and plenty of instability...even in an
elevated layer. Golf Ball to hen egg size hail will be likely with
the stronger storms this evening.

Did go ahead and throw a few counties in a Flash Flood Watch over
southeast Kansas. Confidence is lower on the northern extent of the watch but
many of those counties received heavy rain early this morning...so
won't take nearly as much.

We will get back to zonal flow on Tuesday as the upper impulse quickly
moves into the Ohio Valley. Even though it will be fairly
weak...some moisture transport and Theta-E advection remains over
southern Kansas on Tuesday which may lead to some lingering showers and
storms...especially during the morning hours. A much more
impressive elevated convection signal arrives for Tuesday night with
good model agreement in a large area of strong 850-700mb moisture
transport...especially over the eastern half of the forecast area.
This activity will quickly push east leaving dry and warmer
conditions for Wednesday.

Long term...(thursday through monday)
issued at 236 PM CDT Monday Sep 1 2014

By Thursday both the European model (ecmwf) and GFS agree on a shortwave tracking
across Manitoba with another impulse over the Pacific northwest. Both of
these features will continue tracking east through Thursday night. This
will result in a cold front making its way south across the
Central Plains and eventually into central Kansas by Friday. This will
keep moderate rain chances across the entire area for the Friday-Sat
time frame. Confidence beyond Sat drops off quickly as the European model (ecmwf)
and GFS start to diverge. The GFS is much aggressive in digging a
trough over the western Continental U.S. Compared to the European model (ecmwf) which leads to
the GFS being stronger with return flow over the plains and thus a
wetter solution. Below normal temperatures are expected this weekend with
the cold front in the area with a warming trend to start the work week.

Lawson

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1252 PM CDT Monday Sep 1 2014

Lots of low level moisture and afternoon heating has led to MVFR
ceilings developing across portions of south central and central Kansas.
Most of low cloud deck is located in and around a weak synoptic
front that continues to make slow progress to the south-southeast.
Think this MVFR cloud deck will gradually rise some as the late
afternoon progresses...with most locations seeing some VFR ceilings stay
around.

Next concern will be the chance of thunderstorms and rain developing across southern and
southeast Kansas late this afternoon into this evening...as convergence
increases just ahead of the weak synoptic front...as it drops
south. Think the predominate area of thunderstorms and rain will be located to the
east of the Kansas Turnpike...so will go with a thunderstorms in the vicinity for kcnu for late
this afternoon into this evening. Plan on going with prevailing thunderstorms and rain
for this taf as well...later this evening...as storms could train
over this area for late this evening...and possibly into the
overnight hours. Some uncertainty on how far north the convection
will develop this evening. Think increasing unstable airmass just
south of kict...will be enough for convection to possibly develop
within 25 miles of kict...so will go with a thunderstorms in the vicinity for this taf as
well for the evening hours.

Ketcham



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 69 90 71 95 / 40 20 30 10
Hutchinson 66 88 70 95 / 30 20 30 10
Newton 66 89 70 94 / 30 20 30 10
Eldorado 68 89 71 94 / 40 20 30 20
Winfield-kwld 71 89 72 94 / 60 30 30 10
Russell 62 87 69 96 / 10 10 20 10
Great Bend 63 87 69 95 / 10 10 20 10
Salina 64 87 71 95 / 10 10 40 20
McPherson 65 87 70 94 / 20 10 30 10
Coffeyville 70 88 72 92 / 70 40 30 20
Chanute 69 88 71 92 / 70 30 40 20
Iola 68 88 70 92 / 70 20 40 20
Parsons-kppf 70 88 71 92 / 70 40 30 20

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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