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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1154 am CDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014

issued at 1154 am CDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014

Conditional threat for isolated to widely scattered severe
thunderstorms late this afternoon. A weak cold front is expected
to stall over southern/southeast Kansas this afternoon. Convergence
along this boundary is expected to only be weak/modest...and with
weak to none large scale ascent...questions arise on thunderstorm
coverage late this afternoon/evening. However...given strong
heating and increasing low-level moisture...thinking the threat
exists for at least a few isolated storms. Thunderstorm coverage
is expected to gradually increase during the a
strengthening low-level jet impinges on the now slowly northward
retreating warm response to significant shortwave
energy approaching from the west. All-in-all...ample instability
and very favorable deep layer shear will promote supercells with
the potential for very large hail and damaging winds from late
this afternoon-tonight. Additionally...strengthening low-level
shear and low cloud bases may support a few tornadoes as
well...especially over east-central and southeast Kansas this evening.
The highest severe threat area through tonight is generally east
of Anthony-Hutchinson...and south of Hutchinson-Hillsboro.



Short term...(today through friday)
issued at 248 am CDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014

Could see some fog develop over central Kansas early this morning
where light winds and increasing moisture will be present. We should
see a continuation of elevated showers/storms for this
morning/afternoon over eastern moisture transport
persists over that area. A few strong/marginally severe storms
will be possible with this activity given elevated
instability/shear combo. Otherwise the focus will shift to this
afternoon/ latest satellite water vapor imagery shows
a robust upper level wave maturing over The Rockies. This upper
wave will move eastward across the Central Plains for tonight into
Thursday. Richer Gulf moisture already on the door step across
central Oklahoma will continue to stream northward into Kansas
today...combined with strong daytime heating will ramp up the
instability levels in the warm sector mainly for locations along
and south of I-70. Latest model trends are pushing warm front a
bit further south compared to 24hrs ago...due to upper level wave
diving more south. If enough convergence can materialize along the
warm front/dry line boundaries thunderstorms should re-develop
later in the afternoon along these boundaries. The storms would
quickly become severe with a few supercells possible given very
strong shear aloft. Very large hail and damaging winds are likely.
In addition...a tornado threat will also be possible given
favorable low-level helicity/0-3km cape. The storms should become
more numerous across the region tonight as the upper level wave
approaches the region.


A strong cold front will sweep through central Kansas on Thursday
with on going showers/storms ahead of the front. The main
question will be the timing and amount of clearing that will take
place ahead of the cold front over southeast Kansas...thus
allowing for additional destabilization. Thunderstorms look to
redevelop ahead of the front east of the Kansas Turnpike during
the afternoon hours. The convection should become more
deep layer shear takes on a parallel orientation to the advancing
cold front. With the main threat as damaging winds with isolated
large hail possible. Showers and thunderstorms will vacate
southeast Kansas by Thursday evening. Cooler and drier air will
overspread the region behind the cold front for Thursday afternoon
into Friday.


Long term...(saturday through tuesday)
issued at 248 am CDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014

Confidence remains high that dry weather conditions will prevail
across Kansas for this drier air overspreads the region
due to upper level northwest flow persisting across the Central
Plains. It will be a chilly start to the day on Saturday but a
gradual warming trend is expected for Sunday into early next week.



Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 709 am CDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014

A small cluster of storms across northern OK...will continue to drift
east-NE for the morning hours. Possibly affecting the kcnu taf site for
the morning hours. So will go with thunderstorms in the vicinity for kcnu as warm advection
and moisture transport continues for the morning hours.

The other morning concern will be vlifr ceilings/visibilities for the krsl taf
as the stationary warm front has dropped south of this area...with
saturation in the cooler air producing this this patchy dense fog.
Some concern that this cloud deck will drop southeast and possibly
reach the ksln taf as well...but think it will stop progressing east
after sunrise...bringing this deck to the halt before reaching ksln
before beginning to erode. So will not include in the ksln taf.
Think this cloud/fog deck will gradually improve after
sunshine Burns it off and mixing increases.

Focus then turns to the afternoon a surface low pressure
area develops across OK Panhandle...with a dryline expected to bulge
east towards the khut/kict taf sites. Current model trends think
this boundary will stay west of this area...with storms developing
by around 00z/Thu. Once the convection develops...could see severe
storms near the khut/kict/ksln/krsl taf will need a tempo
group for gusty winds +tsra with later taf storms
come into focus.

Think most taf sites will see some convection will go
with thunderstorms in the vicinity for most taf sites. Surface low looks to move east-NE
overnight...which will shift winds around to the west and northwest on Thursday



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 88 65 73 51 / 30 60 40 10
Hutchinson 86 62 71 49 / 30 50 40 10
Newton 84 63 72 50 / 30 60 50 10
Eldorado 86 64 74 51 / 30 60 50 10
Winfield-kwld 88 66 75 51 / 40 60 40 10
Russell 81 55 67 46 / 10 60 40 10
Great Bend 82 56 67 47 / 10 50 30 10
Salina 83 61 69 49 / 20 70 40 10
McPherson 83 61 70 49 / 30 60 40 10
Coffeyville 86 68 77 52 / 60 60 70 20
Chanute 84 67 76 51 / 60 70 70 20
Iola 83 67 76 51 / 50 70 70 20
Parsons-kppf 85 67 77 51 / 60 60 70 20


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...none.



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