Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
621 am CDT Sat may 18 2013
Short term...(today through monday)
issued at 405 am CDT Sat may 18 2013
Forecast highlight (major): strong potential for severe thunderstorms
capable of producing destructive hail and even a few tornadoes over
most of kict country sun & sun evening.
Upper-deck trough that is digging over Great Basin this morning will take
on a more negative tilt as it continues to dig over the central & southern
rockies as weekend progresses. As the wave crosses the nm/Texas border
Sun morning intense surface cyclogenesis will occur over the Texas/OK
panhandles which would enable rich warm/moist advection to steadily
increase as the weekend progresses. For today the greatest potential
for +tsra is still expected to occur over primarily western Kansas & western OK
where strong dry line positioned from extreme southeast Colorado to the southeast nm/far West
Texas border will punch east/NE toward...then across...western Kansas & the OK & Texas
panhandles this afternoon. A strong cap currently residing over these
areas is "safety-sealed" but convergence along the approaching dry
line should be sufficient to promote explosive thunderstorms and rain development over
western Kansas & western OK late this afternoon. With the afore-mentioned upper-deck
trough strengthening further the resulting increased middle-upper SW flow may
bring severe thunderstorms and rain to areas along & west of I-135 late this afternoon & this
evening. As upper trough continues it's trek east (+)tsra will gradually
spread across rest of Kansas where convection would become more elevated.
The primary threat would be very large hail...perhaps reaching
tennisball-sized. On Sunday the greatest severe threat will transition east
covering nearly all of eastern half of Kansas. The amount of lower-deck
directional shear will have to be watched closely for if sufficient
backing occurs the tornadic threat would certainly increase...
especially over southeast Kansas where destructive hail would remain the greatest
threat. As middle-upper trough undergoing cyclogenesis Sun night & Monday a 2nd
wave is expected to swing around the base of the middle-upper cyclone. This
would enable thunderstorms and rain to persist over most areas...especially southeast Kansas...Sun
night & Monday.
Long term...(tuesday through friday)
issued at 405 am CDT Sat may 18 2013
With focus on first 3 days of forecast...the inherited extended
forecast was kept essentially intact.
&&
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 612 am CDT Sat may 18 2013
Moist southeasterly boundary layer flow will keep IFR/MVFR stratus
over much of the area this morning. Ceilings should be MVFR everywhere by
midday...then scatter out late in the day. A few thunderstorms
(with large hail/winds) may develop near a dryline late this PM/evening from
western Kansas into northwestern OK. A northeastward storm motion is
indicated and think coverage will be widely separated. Therefore
will use thunderstorms in the vicinity at rsl...sln...ict...and hut tonight.
Jmc
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 87 68 86 58 / 20 40 50 40
Hutchinson 87 67 84 58 / 20 40 50 30
Newton 86 67 84 59 / 20 40 60 50
Eldorado 86 68 85 58 / 20 40 60 50
Winfield-kwld 88 69 87 56 / 20 40 60 50
Russell 87 64 81 57 / 30 50 40 20
Great Bend 87 64 81 55 / 30 50 40 20
Salina 87 68 85 60 / 20 50 50 40
McPherson 86 67 84 58 / 20 40 50 40
Coffeyville 87 70 87 64 / 10 30 60 60
Chanute 86 68 85 64 / 10 30 70 60
Iola 86 68 85 63 / 10 30 80 60
Parsons-kppf 87 70 86 64 / 10 30 70 60
&&
Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
