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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
152 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015

Mesoscale discussion...
issued at 152 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015

Remnants of mesoscale outflow boundary has moved north of kcnu
in past hour with airmass becoming very unstable to its south
across southeast Kansas where MLCAPES are now in excess of
3000 j/kg. Convective inhibition is weak though still exists
across this area and clouds from persistent area of elevated
convection may limit further destabilization into the late
afternoon. The better convergence may also continue shifting
north with the aforementioned initiation of
stronger surface based convection may develop just north of
the area...though tending to develop/move southeast into parts
of southeast Kansas during the early evening. Elevated showers
will continue to affect south central Kansas...with perhaps a
few surface based storms possible during the early evening.



Short term...(today through friday)
issued at 309 am CDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015

mcss over western MO and southeast Nebraska will continue to
track southeast with potential for trailing mesoscale convective system to clip Flint
Hills/southeast Kansas this morning with a few rain showers and/or
thunderstorms. Anticipating the mesoscale convective system will lay out/reinforce
northwest/southeast boundary near NE border of forecast area. With
front dropping south...and southwest flow ahead of front drying
low levels ... initiation will occur at triple point middle
afternoon...somewhere roughly in a kc-cnu-sgf Triangle. Combo of
cape/shear suggest storms will be severe. The big question is how
far west storms will develop given influx of low level drier air
and marginal convergence on surface front. Western edge may be
I-35...but chances will increase markedly closer to eastern edge
of forecast area. Temperatures will once again flirt with triple
digits in the vicinity of and ahead of the front in south central
Kansas. Storms chances in far eastern sections will likely be maximized
this evening...but unclear how long mesoscale convective system will keep precipitation
going overnight given potential for low level jet to overrun the
outflow boundary late in the night.

Thursday-Thursday night:
one of the more challenging days...with a lot riding on extent of
convection Wednesday night. Thinking triple point could be in central
Kansas...with early afternoon storms developing and diving south
across south central Kansas in the late afternoon/evening. Will shade
probability of precipitation higher across south central Kansas in the evening. Temperatures
on Thursday will be highly dependent on clouds/precipitation...but odds
favor slightly cooler temperatures in the north due to either
extensive clouds and/or cooler air north of the front.

convective chances will likely be tied to timing of shortwave
in northwest flow. Fair amount of disagreement on timing...with
GFS faster/stronger than European model (ecmwf). There is also some question on
where surface moisture/front would be...but shortwave track/warmer
temperatures aloft would favor higher probability of precipitation in southeast Kansas.

Long term...(saturday through tuesday)
issued at 309 am CDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015

No major changes to going forecast this period. Overall theme is
still a breakdown of western ridge...and transition into broad
zonal flow. Confidence in details/timing of this is quite low...let
alone model quantitative precipitation forecast which drives initialization grids. Once again
trended precipitation chances closer to wpc guidance which is a bit
more conservative than the initialization grids. -Howerton


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1240 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015

Surface low pressure and a cold front will move east and
southeast across the area later today and tonight. Scattered
strong to severe storms are possible this evening...mainly
across southeast Kansas. Winds will shift to the north behind
the frontal passage with mainly VFR conditions expected away
from any convection. The exception will be across southeast
Kansas by early Thursday morning...where a period of MVFR ceilings
are anticipated.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 73 89 68 87 / 20 30 40 30
Hutchinson 70 86 66 87 / 10 40 40 20
Newton 71 86 66 86 / 20 30 40 30
Eldorado 71 88 67 86 / 20 30 40 30
Winfield-kwld 73 93 68 88 / 30 30 50 30
Russell 69 84 65 88 / 10 40 30 20
Great Bend 69 85 65 88 / 10 40 30 20
Salina 70 84 66 86 / 10 40 30 20
McPherson 70 85 65 86 / 10 40 30 20
Coffeyville 74 91 68 86 / 40 20 40 40
Chanute 72 88 68 84 / 50 30 40 40
Iola 71 86 67 84 / 50 30 30 40
Parsons-kppf 73 90 68 85 / 50 30 40 40


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...none.


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