Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
429 am CDT Monday Mar 30 2015

Synopsis...
issued at 420 am CDT Monday Mar 30 2015

All is quiet across the Kansas neighborhood as large but weak lower-
deck high pressure covers the central and southern U.S. Early this
morning. The clear skies and calm/light wind are producing ideal
radiational cooling with 3 am temperatures ranging from around 30
in central Kansas to around 40 across far southern Kansas.

&&

Short term...(today through wednesday)
issued at 420 am CDT Monday Mar 30 2015

Today-Tuesday night:
a weak lower-deck trough settling S/southeast should reach central Kansas late
this afternoon. This will force the weak high pressure southeast across
the lower MS valley to enable southerly flow to return to the kict
neighborhood. Although relative humidities should drop into the
middle 20s the southerly winds will not be strong enough to cause any
fire weather concerns this afternoon. All will remain quiet but
Tuesday night a surface trough will raipdly develop over the Western
Plains to induce southerly flow to become more assertive...thus
enabling Gulf moisture to migrate toward Kansas.

Wednesday and Wednesday night:
a broad middle-level trough should move east across the Great Plains
Wednesday night which will allow a cold front to sweep southeast across
Kansas late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. The cold front
will find ample moisture to work with to induce numerous
thunderstorms to develop from Nebraska...Iowa and MO to central and
eastern Kansas. With the greater moisture convergence targeting NE Kansas
the higher thunderstorm chances would therefore occur over the NE
corridor of the County Warning Area Wednesday night a few of which may be strong.

Long term...(thursday through sunday)
issued at 420 am CDT Monday Mar 30 2015

Thursday and Thursday night:
as the cold front settles S/southeast across the Kansas/OK border Thursday
morning the better chances for showers and thunderstorms would
therefore shift S/southeast across southern Kansas with the great chances
targeting southeast Kansas where lower-deck moisture convergence is stronger
and hence the greater thunderstorm potential. With the initial
middle-level shortwave scooting toward the Great Lakes the front will
decellerate and eventually stall in an east-west manner across OK. A
stronger middle-upper shortwave will swing southeast across the northern and
Central Plains to induce lower-deck cyclogenesis across the
western Red River. As the middle-upper deck shortwave crosses the
northern and Central Plains a 2nd cold front will develop from southeast
Kansas across OK to the Texas Panhandle. This would produce a 2nd round
of showers and thunderstorms across the region Thursday night with
the greater chances targeting southeast Kansas where moist lower-deck
convergence is greatest.

Rest of the week:
quiet weather returns to the region on Friday as stronger high
pressure spreads southeast across the Kansas neighborhood.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1144 PM CDT sun Mar 29 2015

Light and variable winds will impact all terminals through 13-16 UTC
as surface high pressure moves directly overhead. A weak surface
trough will develop in the Lee of The Rockies bringing south
southwesterly winds to all terminals Monday morning. Broad
subsidence with clear skies will promote gusty winds beginning
late Monday morning/early afternoon. Krsl and ksln will likely see
the highest gusts as wind speeds around 850 mb will provide higher
momentum to mix down to the surface. Have left mentions of gusts
out of the kcnu terminal as higher 850 mb wind speeds will not
reach southeast Kansas until after sunset...limiting the potential
for gusty winds. Southerly winds will decrease Monday evening.

Jmr



&&

Fire weather...
issued at 420 am CDT Monday Mar 30 2015

Although relative humidities will drop into the middle and upper 20s
onsetting S/SW lower deck flow should be modest to keep fire
weather concerns in check this afternoon. On Tuesday the rangeland
fire danger will be even lower as weak easterly flow spreads
across Kansas in the wake of the decellerating front.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 74 48 82 54 / 0 0 10 10
Hutchinson 74 45 81 52 / 0 0 10 10
Newton 74 48 80 53 / 0 0 10 10
Eldorado 74 48 80 53 / 0 0 10 10
Winfield-kwld 74 50 81 54 / 0 0 10 10
Russell 78 42 81 51 / 0 0 10 10
Great Bend 77 43 81 52 / 0 0 10 10
Salina 75 45 80 52 / 0 0 10 10
McPherson 74 45 80 52 / 0 0 10 10
Coffeyville 73 50 78 53 / 0 0 10 10
Chanute 73 48 78 53 / 0 0 10 10
Iola 72 47 77 52 / 0 0 10 10
Parsons-kppf 73 48 78 53 / 0 0 10 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations