Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
541 PM CST sun Feb 1 2015
..updated for 00z aviation discussion...
Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 258 PM CST sun Feb 1 2015
Cyclonic curvature and cold temperatures aloft on the backside of the
deepening low pressure center have led to some scattered diurnally
driven snow flurries across the eastern half of the forecast area and
eastern Kansas this afternoon. This tight gradient on the backside of the
system...has also led to wind gusts to 40-45 kts across eastern Kansas as
well. Expect this flurry chance to end by around sunset as
afternoon heating ends and main surface low pressure area continues
to pull east of the area. This will also slacken the pressure
gradient some for the evening hours. Even though winds will continue
to be breezy into the late evening hours...will be able to let the
Wind Advisory go as scheduled at 00z/sun.
Expect the surface winds to slacken as the overnight continues...as
the polar high pressure area settles over the region by Monday morning.
This will lead to a huge dropoff in temperatures...as radiational cooling
will be maximized. Could see temperatures fall in the single digits in
central Kansas...and the teens across southern Kansas.
Monday-Tue: expect a slow warming trend for Monday and Tuesday...as most of
the plains will be between systems. Still think temperatures will be on the
chilly side on Monday before good downslope conditions lead to above
normal temperatures on Tuesday.
Wed: the tricky day looks to be on Wednesday...as the next shortwave comes
out of southern Canada into the northern plains. The northwest flow
associated with this system will lead to another polar cold front
dropping south into the plains for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Models differ
some on the timing of this front dropping south across the area for
Wednesday afternoon...with the GFS the fastest and NAM/WRF and European model (ecmwf) the
slowest. Timing of the front may lead to a large temperature bust on
Wednesday...as slower arrival into southern Kansas may lead another warm downslope
day and temperatures climbing well into the 50s for highs across southern Kansas.
The surest bet seems to be colder temperatures for central Kansas...with
falling temperatures for Wednesday afternoon. Plan on taking the middle of the
Road when it comes to maximum temperatures for southern Kansas...with early
afternoon highs in the 40s.
European model (ecmwf) model has finally come around to the GFS and to a lessor
degree the NAM/WRF on introducing precipitation chances for Wednesday
afternoon/evening. As the front pushes south into OK...colder air
aloft will tighten the middle level baroclinic zone over the top of Kansas
for Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. A weak shortwave and Pacific
moisture dropping southeast out of the northern rockies will interact
with this baroclinic zone to produce a chance of rain/snow and then
all snow by Wednesday evening for most of the forecast area. Depth of the
moisture looks lacking for a significant snow chance. GFS forecast
soundings do not show alot of moisture in the prime snow growth
region...but enough moisture for a possible light snow by the
evening hours. This baroclinic zone in the 600-700h layer could
lead to some snow banding across central Kansas...which could produce
some sneaky one to two inch snowfall amounts...otherwise light snow
amounts around an inch are expected.
Long term...(thursday through sunday)
issued at 258 PM CST sun Feb 1 2015
The cold air will linger into Thursday before ridging aloft and better
downslope flow sets up by the end of the week into the weekend. This
will allow much warmer temperatures to move back into the plains.
Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 541 PM CST sun Feb 1 2015
MVFR ceilings will persist through the first portion of the
forecast until the upper low exits to the east. VFR conditions
will return by morning. Gusty northwest winds will persist but
will decrease through the overnight hours. Surface high pressure
will quickly move across returning southerly winds to the area by
morning at most terminals except kcnu.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 11 35 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
Hutchinson 9 35 25 59 / 0 0 0 0
Newton 9 33 25 55 / 0 0 0 0
Eldorado 10 34 25 56 / 0 0 0 0
Winfield-kwld 12 35 25 56 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 6 38 25 59 / 0 0 0 0
Great Bend 8 39 25 60 / 0 0 0 0
Salina 7 34 23 57 / 0 10 0 0
McPherson 8 34 24 57 / 0 0 0 0
Coffeyville 15 33 25 54 / 0 0 0 0
Chanute 13 32 24 53 / 10 0 0 0
Iola 12 31 24 52 / 10 0 0 0
Parsons-kppf 13 33 25 54 / 10 0 0 0
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ksz032-033-047>053-