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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
623 am CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

..updated for 12z aviation discussion...

Synopsis...
issued at 337 am CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

A cold front extends from the upper MS valley across Nebraska to NE Colorado.
Across Kansas southerly 5-15 miles per hour winds prevail with the lighter winds over
southeast Kansas where areas of light fog are occurring. Temperatures range
from lower 70s in central & south-central Kansas to the upper 60s in
southeast Kansas.

&&

Short term...(today through monday)
issued at 337 am CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

This morning:
with the exception of Independence where visibilities were briefly at
1/4 visibilities across southeast Kansas have been consistently 2-3 miles
& with visibilities improving at Independence have cancelled the dense
fog advisory that had been in effect until 7 am as winds are slowly
shifting to due south & will slowly increase.

Rest of the weekend:
primary focus is thunderstorm-related. A middle-upper shortwave that is
moving southeast across the Dakotas will strengthen considerably &
accelerate as it surges across the upper MS valley late tonight then
across the Ohio Valley on sun. This would drive the cold front southeast
toward Kansas tonight with the front decelerating as it moves through
central Kansas late tonight as the greatest acceleration of the middle-upper
wave would be well to the NE of Kansas. Scattered thunderstorms are still
expected to develop over northern & central Kansas this afternoon &
tonight. Deep-layer shear is increasing over northeast Kansas & northern
MO, as such a few severe thunderstorms may clip areas along & NE of a
line from ksln-kcnu. As the front resumes its S/southeast trek toward...then
across...the Kansas OK border the best chances of thunderstorms would
likewise shift south across the Kansas/OK border Sun morning as an
inverted surface ridge builds south across Kansas. As such rainfall
across south-central & southeast Kansas should end by middle-morning on sun.
Sun night would be mostly clear & cool as surface high increases
influence.

Monday & Monday night:
thunderstorms are still scheduled to arrive western Kansas Monday afternoon &
spread east toward...then across...central & south-central Kansas Monday night
as the next middle-level shortwave digs further S along the Front Range.

Long term...(tuesday through friday)
issued at 337 am CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

With strong(!) Upper-deck high pressure covering the eastern half of
the U.S. The middle-level shortwave will decelerate before moving NE as
it crosses Kansas. This would keep all of Kansas in a moist environment. As
such periodic showers/thunderstorms would occur across the
neighborhood for most of the upcoming work-week. Instability is
lacking & as such thunderstorms should not achieve severity. Friday & Friday
night should be dry...but these periods will obviously be covered in
greater detail next week.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 622 am CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Patchy MVFR visibilities in fog will linger across south central and
especially southeast Kansas until mid-morning. A brief period of
IFR is possible mainly at kcnu. Otherwise...a cold front will
move south across central Kansas late this afternoon and across
south central and southeast Kansas tonight. Scattered convection
is expected along and just behind the front and have indicated
with thunderstorms in the vicinity for now in all terminals.

Ked

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 90 66 80 55 / 20 40 20 10
Hutchinson 90 64 78 54 / 20 50 10 10
Newton 89 64 78 53 / 20 50 10 10
Eldorado 90 65 80 54 / 20 40 10 0
Winfield-kwld 90 66 82 56 / 20 40 30 10
Russell 90 59 77 52 / 20 30 0 10
Great Bend 90 62 77 53 / 20 40 10 10
Salina 90 62 79 53 / 30 30 0 10
McPherson 90 62 78 53 / 20 40 0 10
Coffeyville 89 66 80 56 / 10 30 20 0
Chanute 88 65 79 54 / 20 40 10 0
Iola 87 65 78 54 / 20 40 10 0
Parsons-kppf 89 65 80 55 / 20 30 20 0

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

$$

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