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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
547 PM CST sun Feb 14 2016

..updated for 00z aviation discussion...

Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 156 PM CST sun Feb 14 2016

Dry and mild weather is expected to prevail across the region during
the next few days.

A shortwave will move southeastward across the Central Plains
tonight into early Monday morning. An increase in middle-level moisture
and some lift could result in a few sprinkles/flurries...however low-
levels are rather dry. Winds will shift to the northwest behind this
upper wave...with some gusts of 20-25 miles per hour during the day Monday.
Weak cold air advection is likely to be offset by a northwest
downslope wind direction...therefore highs should be near to
slightly warmer than today's. Another shortwave trough will drop
southeastward across the northern plains/upper Midwest Monday
night into Tuesday. The front associated with this trough may be a
bit stronger...which could shave a few degrees off of monday's
highs for Tuesday...but still temperatures will be above seasonal
climate averages.

The longwave upper trough will continue to shift further into the
eastern states Wednesday-Wednesday night...while upper ridging
slides east over the plains. The resultant Lee troughing and return
southerly flow should result in mostly clear skies and highs Wednesday
in the 60s...about 15 degrees above normal.

Jmc

Long term...(thursday through sunday)
issued at 156 PM CST sun Feb 14 2016

The medium range models continue in very good agreement in depicting
a Pacific flow regime prevailing over the Central Plains late in the
week. This will lead to much above normal temperatures Thursday into
Saturday...with Thursday still projected to be the warmest day. Lee
troughing and a strong pressure gradient Thursday...should lead to
gusty southwesterly winds. 850 temperature anomalies and 1000-850
thickness values on the European model (ecmwf) and GFS...support near record to
record warmth Thursday across our forecast area.

A fairly strong shortwave trough is prognosticated to eject out across the
northern/Central Plains Thursday night into Friday...bringing a
Pacific frontal passage through the area. Moisture return ahead of
this front looks too weak and will maintain a dry forecast. This
boundary does hang up to our south on Friday allowing Gulf moisture
to improve some (but still somewhat marginal) over the Southern
Plains. The warm sector is prognosticated to return north into Kansas
Saturday ahead of the next series of shortwave troughs. There is
some signal in both the ecwmf and GFS to support at least a slight
chance of mainly elevated convection over eastern Kansas Saturday-
Saturday night. A cold front will push through the region Saturday
night with some cooler air infiltrating the area on Sunday.

Jmc

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 537 PM CST sun Feb 14 2016

Aviation concerns are expected to remain minimal through the next
24 hours.

Water vapor imagery shows some shortwave energy diving south
across the northern High Plains. Middle and high clouds ahead of this
wave have overspread northwest Kansas with this area of clouds
expected to push across the forecast area tonight. Confidence is
high that ceilings will stay above MVFR levels as the low layers
remain too dry. West and southwest winds will come back around to
the northwest by late Monday morning.

Lawson

&&

Fire weather...
issued at 156 PM CST sun Feb 14 2016

Grassland fire danger is expected to be generally in the moderate to
high category for early to midweek. However much warmer temperatures
and increasingly gusty southwesterly winds by Thursday are
expected to elevate the fire danger into at least the very high
category area-wide. Fire weather officials should monitor
thursday's forecast closely for any possible fire weather
headlines.

Jmc

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 34 60 38 59 / 10 10 10 0
Hutchinson 33 60 37 57 / 10 10 10 0
Newton 33 58 38 56 / 10 10 10 0
Eldorado 34 59 38 58 / 10 10 10 0
Winfield-kwld 35 63 38 60 / 10 10 10 0
Russell 31 59 35 56 / 10 10 10 0
Great Bend 32 60 36 57 / 10 10 10 0
Salina 32 59 37 56 / 10 10 10 0
McPherson 32 59 37 57 / 10 10 10 0
Coffeyville 34 61 38 60 / 10 10 10 10
Chanute 33 58 37 57 / 10 10 10 10
Iola 33 57 37 55 / 10 10 10 10
Parsons-kppf 34 59 37 58 / 10 10 10 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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