Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
625 am CDT Thursday Jul 10 2014
..updated for 12z aviation discussion...
Short term...(today through saturday)
issued at 244 am CDT Thursday Jul 10 2014
Low level jet and moisture transport continues to feed into central
Kansas...with a cluster of storms moving into northwest kict. This area of
convection is developing along the main Theta-E axis situated from
kgbd to kict. MUCAPE values and decent bulk shear suggest that this
convection will continue for the morning hours...training to the southeast
towards kwld. Slow movement of the storms to the southeast...may
lead to heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding threat...
especially over south central Kansas for the morning hours.
Think this convection will continue to train along this Theta-E
gradient until at least 14z...when short term models show Theta-E
axis and low level jet shifting to the northeast into areas east of
ksln to kict line for the late morning hours. Will go with fairly
healthy probability of precipitation for the morning given this convection....with a gradual
shift of the probability of precipitation into the Flint Hills for the noon time
Think most of the convection will shift east-northeast into NE Kansas
for the afternoon hours...with most areas seeing a return to
sunshine by late this afternoon. A little concerned about how good
the temperature recovery will be for areas over the Flint Hills...so will
tweak maximum temperatures down some in this area. The rest of the area will
Friday-Sat: the weak ridging over The Rockies will lead to a couple
of hot days for Friday and Sat. Low to middle level flow...will
gradually shift more to the S-SW...which will lead to better
downslope flow and drier surface dewpoints working into the area.
This will lead to temperatures climbing close to the century mark for
central Kansas. Not too sure we will make 100...as alot of the heating
will go into burning off the low level moisture/surface
dewpoints...unless better mixing develops. The warmer air aloft
will also effectively cap off any storm chances...as 700h temperatures
warm to plus 12-14 for Friday. Think most of the area will also
remain capped for Sat...with any chance of convection staying
along or north of Interstate 70.
Long term...(sunday through wednesday)
issued at 244 am CDT Thursday Jul 10 2014
Flow actually shifts to more north-northwesterly for the end of
the weekend...as a stronger shortwave pushes into the Great Lakes.
As this flow shifts...medium range models continue to show another
weak frontal boundary dropping slowly south across the forecast
area for sun/Mon. Not sure how widespread the convective chances
will be along the boundary as convergence isnt that great...or for
that matter where the boundary will actually be located. So will
keep the probability of precipitation low for now.
Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) show a push of drier air moving into the
plains from the northern plains for Monday night into Tuesday. This will
lead to unseasonably cooler air moving into the area...with most
of the showers and thunderstorms shifting south into OK. Will
leave some low probability of precipitation across southern Kansas for coordination sake...but
could see probability of precipitation completely removed with later forecasts if models
continue to show this trend.
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 625 am CDT Thursday Jul 10 2014
Embedded convection within stratiform rain on north side of
mesoscale convective system will continue to affect much of
the forecast area through at least mid-morning. Locally
reduced visibilities in moderate to heavy rain can be expected with
greatest impact at kict. Otherwise general clearing is expected
with VFR conditions this afternoon through tonight. Gusty south
winds will develop especially across central Kansas.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 89 73 96 75 / 90 0 10 10
Hutchinson 88 73 95 75 / 80 0 10 10
Newton 86 72 95 75 / 80 0 10 10
Eldorado 85 72 95 75 / 80 0 10 10
Winfield-kwld 89 73 96 75 / 90 0 10 10
Russell 92 75 98 75 / 40 10 10 10
Great Bend 93 75 97 75 / 50 0 10 10
Salina 87 74 96 75 / 80 10 10 10
McPherson 87 73 95 75 / 80 10 10 10
Coffeyville 87 73 97 74 / 60 10 10 10
Chanute 85 72 96 74 / 50 10 10 10
Iola 85 72 96 73 / 40 10 10 10
Parsons-kppf 86 72 96 74 / 50 10 10 10