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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
327 PM CDT Tuesday may 5 2015

Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 325 PM CDT Tuesday may 5 2015

Active Spring-like pattern expected through the weekend...with
periodic episodes of strong/severe storms possible.

Through 8pm...could see a few isolated showers/thunderstorms over
far eastern/southeast Kansas...due to diurnal heating amidst a weakly
capped airmass. Weak instability/shear will keep everything below
strong/severe levels...and should dissipate after sunset.

Otherwise...mid-afternoon water vapor imagery indicates a deep
negatively-tilted shortwave currently over the southern High
Plains/southern rockies. As this feature continues to eject
northeast...increasing large scale ascent and strong/deep moisture
transport will favor widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms
spreading northeast across the region late this afternoon and
overnight. Given weak instability/shear...not expecting
strong/severe storms...although should see widespread 0.25-0.50"
rainfall amounts...locally higher over southern Kansas. Shortwave and
widespread rainfall will exit the region to the east/northeast
Wednesday morning.

As previous forecaster mentioned...some uncertainty exists
surrounding Wednesday afternoon/evening severe potential. The
biggest question Marks will be the potential for widespread
subsidence/height rises in wake of the aforementioned
shortwave...along with potential instability issues in the warm
sector given the threat for widespread low clouds. If these issues
can be overcome...modest dryline convergence may be enough to
spark a few isolated late afternoon storms along/west of Highway
281...moving into central/south-central Kansas during evening. Modest
to strong instability along with 30-40 kts of deep layer shear
across dryline will favor strong multi-cell and supercell
structures...capable of large hail...damaging winds and perhaps a
tornado or two given backed low-level flow and good low-level
instability. However...probably not looking at a high-end and/or
widespread outbreak given relatively weaker flow aloft...just so-
so middle-level lapse rates and potential storm coverage issues.

Active pattern continues for Thursday and a trailing
cold front stalls in a northeast-southwest manner across the Kansas
region...and a longwave trough continues to deepen over the western
Continental U.S.. other than the potential for weak ripples in flow
aloft...upper forcing should remain rather weak/subtle both
days...which casts doubt on storm coverage during the
afternoon/overnight hours. Nevertheless...the potential for strong
instability along with modest deep layer shear along/south of the
front will promote strong/severe activity with anything that can
develop. Furthermore...flow oriented parallel to boundary will also
promote locally heavy rainfall amounts.


Long term...(saturday through tuesday)
issued at 325 PM CDT Tuesday may 5 2015

Active pattern continues for the medium range
consensus finally ejects the southwest Continental U.S. Trough northeast over
middle- America...atop an increasingly moist/unstable warm sector.
Questions regarding shortwave timing and amplitude still exist
since this is still 4-5 days out...but the overall pattern would
support the potential for a higher-end/widespread severe weather
outbreak...especially over the western halves of Kansas and
Oklahoma...given stronger forcing and increasing flow aloft.

Medium range consensus supports much quieter weather by early
next the aforementioned shortwave ejects northeast of
the region...and a dryer airmass filters south into mid-America.



Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 1207 PM CDT Tuesday may 5 2015

Main hazards: potential for stratus and rain/thunder.

Shortwave trough over eastern New Mexico will rotate
northeastward across the southern/Central High plains tonight into
Wednesday morning. A 50-55 knot southerly low-level jet will
develop in response to this wave tonight into Wednesday
morning...resulting in strong moisture transport and marginal
elevated instability. A fairly concentrated area of showers and
embedded thunderstorms will develop northeastward from the High
Plains into central/eastern Kansas tonight into Wednesday morning.
Southeasterly upslope winds in combination with the rain should
yield widespread stratus development...with MVFR/IFR ceilings.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 62 76 66 79 / 90 50 40 30
Hutchinson 61 77 64 79 / 80 40 40 40
Newton 61 75 64 78 / 90 50 40 40
Eldorado 62 75 65 80 / 90 60 40 30
Winfield-kwld 63 77 66 78 / 90 50 40 40
Russell 60 79 61 80 / 70 40 40 50
Great Bend 59 79 62 79 / 70 40 30 50
Salina 62 76 65 79 / 80 50 40 50
McPherson 61 76 64 78 / 80 40 40 50
Coffeyville 64 75 66 79 / 80 70 30 40
Chanute 63 75 65 80 / 80 70 30 40
Iola 62 75 64 79 / 80 70 30 40
Parsons-kppf 64 75 66 80 / 80 70 30 40


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...none.



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