Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1136 am CST Monday Mar 2 2015

..updated for 18z aviation discussion...

issued at 318 am CST Monday Mar 2 2015

In the upper levels...a deep shortwave trough is situated just off
of Southern California with another shortwave tracking east across the
Great Lakes. At the surface...high pressure is centered over the
middle Mississippi Valley with troughing strengthening in the Lee of
The Rockies.


Short term...(today through wednesday)
issued at 318 am CST Monday Mar 2 2015

Warm advection will be in place today and tonight across the
plains as the sharp upper trough remains planted over the western
Continental U.S.. some light rain will be possible today and tonight as middle
level warm advection increases. However...feel the more likely
precipitation type this afternoon and especially overnight will be
drizzle. This will be due to strong warm isentropic lift in the
280-285k layer which will be just off of the surface. May also see
some advection fog overnight but confidence is high that it will
not be dense. The challenging part of tonights forecast will if
temperatures will be cold enough to allow the drizzle to freeze. At this
point will go with the thinking that the warm advection tonight
will be strong enough to only allow temperatures to fall off a degree or
two with the possibility that they may even rise a degree or two
overnight. Will mention some light freezing rain/drizzle near I-70
where temperatures may over near freezing for a couple hours tonight.

The focus will then shift to another strong cold front to sweep
across the region on Tuesday-Tuesday night as a shortwave dives southeast
out of Saskatchewan and into the northern Mississippi Valley by
Wednesday morning. High bust potential for temperatures on Tuesday as there is some
model discrepancies with the timing. The NAM is slower compared
to the GFS and for now have a slight lean to the GFS based on
recent performance with boundary layer features. Some light snow
will be possible Tuesday into Tuesday night with the higher chances over
far southeast Kansas...where some minor accumulations will be
possible...mainly Tuesday night. Confidence is high that we are only
looking at very light accumulations over most of the forecast
area. Highs on Wednesday will be the coldest through this forecast
package as they struggle to reach the freezing mark.

Long term...(thursday through sunday)
issued at 318 am CST Monday Mar 2 2015

Northwest flow aloft looks to remain in place through these
extended periods. This should finally result in a few days with
temperatures close to seasonal averages...which is the low 50s. While a
few impulses dive down in the northwest flow...none of them look to have
a big impact on precipitation chances.



Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1136 am CST Monday Mar 2 2015

The large area of high pressure that was centered over the Great
Lakes this morning will continue moving east. This has caused
surface winds to come around to the southeast. This southerly wind
will also bring some additional moisture into the
region...resulting in some drizzle overnight...mainly along and
south of Highway 400. Ceilings around 800 feet are expected with
MVFR visibilities. Temperatures are expected to remain above freezing
overnight in the areas where drizzle is forecast.

Winds will increase from the southwest Tuesday as the next system
approaches from the west. Expect speeds to reach 20 to 30
knots...with higher gusts in krsl. Ceilings and visibilities should improve
to VFR by middle to late morning.



Fire weather...
issued at 318 am CST Monday Mar 2 2015

Fire danger concerns are expected to remain minimal for the next
few days.

Higher rh's and light southeast winds will the fire danger in
check today. A strong cold front is expected to sweep across the
area on Tuesday. This front is expected to pass through central Kansas by
the afternoon hours and the remainder of the area after 1 PM.
Gusty northwest winds will be in place behind the front Tuesday
afternoon...especially over central Kansas...where gusts in the 30-40
miles per hour range will be possible. Much colder temperatures will be in place Wednesday
which will keep rh's on the high side.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 35 34 48 19 / 20 20 20 20
Hutchinson 35 34 45 17 / 10 20 10 20
Newton 35 34 47 17 / 10 20 20 20
Eldorado 36 34 49 19 / 20 20 20 20
Winfield-kwld 35 35 50 20 / 20 20 20 30
Russell 34 32 38 14 / 10 20 10 20
Great Bend 34 33 40 15 / 10 20 10 20
Salina 36 33 42 15 / 10 20 10 20
McPherson 35 34 45 16 / 10 20 10 20
Coffeyville 39 36 53 22 / 20 30 30 30
Chanute 38 35 52 20 / 20 30 30 30
Iola 38 35 52 19 / 20 30 30 30
Parsons-kppf 39 36 53 21 / 20 30 30 30


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations