Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
635 am CDT Friday may 22 2015

..updated for 12z aviation discussion...

Short term...(today through sunday)
issued at 322 am CDT Friday may 22 2015

Today-tonight:
ripple in upper flow combining with increasing deep moisture will
spread rain showers and a few thunderstorms across the area this
morning. With departing upper support...precipitation is a bit
more tenuous this afternoon. Area will be left with nearly
saturated airmass below 700mb...but 850mb warm air advection is
going to advection and little/weak isentropic lift. Thinking
sprinkles/drizzle/widely scattered light rain showers will be the
rule this afternoon. Precipitation chances will increase a bit
tonight as upper support increases again. Temperatures will be
suppressed today and moderated tonight due to extensive clouds/
precipitation. Instability is limited so rainfall is not expected
to be excessive or likely to cause significant flooding.

Sat-Sun:

Sat morning will likely see a continuation of precipitation from
Sat night...with some drying possible midday. However a bigger
piece of upper energy will traverse the area Sat night...with
widespread rain likely. Given moisture...amounts substantial
rainfall is anticipated...with another round moving through on
sun. Heaviest rain appears more likely east of I-35. That
said...confidence in widespread areas exceeding flash flood
guidance at this point is low...so will not issue any headlines
with this package. -Howerton

Long term...(monday through thursday)
issued at 322 am CDT Friday may 22 2015

Little change in longwave pattern with persistent troughing in
western US and ridging in the east. This will leave the area
vulnerable to ripples in southwest flow every 12-24hrs throughout
the period. With decent moisture in place and some model
discrepancies...am stuck with at least small chances for rain
over entire area throughout this period. While we do not expect
continuous or even persistent rain every day...uncertainty in
timing of waves will keep threat going. Better chances at this
point are Monday night-Tuesday with both European model (ecmwf)/GFS hinting at another
significant piece of energy moving through the flow. -Howerton

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 635 am CDT Friday may 22 2015

For ict-hut-sln-rsl-cnu...a shield of rain oriented northwest-
southeast will spread east across the region this morning...in
response to shortwave energy moving over the High Plains.
Thinking periodic MVFR visibilities/ceilings are possible at all sites as
this rain passes through. Cannot completely rule out a few
isolated embedded lightning strikes...but left out of tafs due to
very isolated nature. By middle to late morning in wake of this rain
shield...think prevailing MVFR ceilings are likely...given persistent
low-level southerly moisture advection. Possible that these ceilings
will eventually go IFR tonight...but did not include in tafs just
yet.

Adk

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 58 55 64 63 / 70 80 70 80
Hutchinson 56 54 64 62 / 70 80 60 60
Newton 57 53 63 62 / 70 80 70 80
Eldorado 58 54 64 63 / 70 80 70 80
Winfield-kwld 58 55 68 63 / 70 70 70 80
Russell 55 54 64 61 / 70 80 50 50
Great Bend 56 54 64 61 / 70 80 50 50
Salina 56 54 65 62 / 70 70 50 60
McPherson 56 54 63 62 / 70 80 60 60
Coffeyville 62 56 74 65 / 60 70 70 90
Chanute 62 56 70 64 / 60 70 70 90
Iola 63 56 68 64 / 60 70 70 90
Parsons-kppf 62 56 73 65 / 60 70 70 90

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...none.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations