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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
533 am CST Sat Dec 20 2014

..updated for 12z aviation discussion...

Short term...(today through monday)
issued at 254 am CST Sat Dec 20 2014

A strong upper jet stream will continue to push into the
northwestern Continental U.S. During the period with embedded shortwaves and
abundant Pacific moisture. Lee troughing and southerly flow will
allow for temperatures to modify this weekend in our forecast area.
Low stratus/fog will continue to be problematic this weekend...given
higher dewpoints in the 30s/40s upstream in Oklahoma and Texas. Not
expecting widespread dense fog however...with boundary layer flow
gradually increasing.

A shortwave trough is prognosticated to amplify as it pushes from the
Pacific northwest across the northern/Central Plains Sunday night
into Monday. Areas of light drizzle may develop Sunday as isentropic
lift occurs in the 285-290k layer with lowering condensation
pressure deficits and fairly dry mid-levels. Two separate areas
of deeper lift appear to be associated with this upper trough. One
area passes across Nebraska...northeastern Kansas...Iowa...Missouri. A
second area passes southward across the Central High plains. For
our area...relatively higher light rain chances (30-40%) will
affect our northeastern counties...with 15-20% in our southwestern
counties. Northwesterly downslope winds may become breezy
Monday...supporting highs around 50/lower 50s.

Long term...(tuesday through friday)
issued at 254 am CST Sat Dec 20 2014

Brisk and cooler weather will be the main weather flavor for Tuesday
as the deep upper trough continues to move east across the plains.
Temperatures should then modify Wednesday into Thursday to slightly
above seasonal averages.

Medium range models continue to be at odds regarding energy coming
out of the eastern Pacific toward the plains late in the week. The
GFS offers a much less amplified trough with the brunt of the energy
passing just north of Kansas. This would bring some colder air in by
Friday...but little in the way of precipitation chances in our
forecast area. The European model (ecmwf) continues to dig and amplify the energy
much further south...with a large swath of accumulating snow on the
northwest periphery of the low track. This could affect our central
Kansas counties Thursday night into Friday. The European model (ecmwf) also brings a
bigger shot of colder air southward for the end of the week.
Uncertainty remains high regarding precipitation chances in our
area...but feel it's prudent to maintain a mention of snow in the
forecast in central Kansas...and make any necessary adjustments in later
forecasts. Confidence is fairly high in a cooldown for Friday.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 530 am CST Sat Dec 20 2014

Low clouds and fog will affect much of the area early this
morning...and conditions should gradually improve as low clouds
scatter out late this morning and afternoon. However the low
clouds are expected to return tonight as low level moisture
streams northward into Kansas. IFR conditions are likely late
tonight across much of the area.

Jakub

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 46 36 47 39 / 0 0 10 20
Hutchinson 46 35 48 37 / 0 0 10 20
Newton 44 35 46 39 / 0 0 10 20
Eldorado 45 36 47 40 / 0 0 10 20
Winfield-kwld 47 37 48 40 / 0 0 10 20
Russell 48 31 49 35 / 0 0 10 20
Great Bend 48 32 49 35 / 0 0 10 20
Salina 45 34 48 37 / 0 0 10 30
McPherson 45 34 47 37 / 0 0 10 20
Coffeyville 46 36 49 41 / 0 0 10 20
Chanute 44 35 47 41 / 0 0 10 20
Iola 43 35 46 40 / 0 0 10 20
Parsons-kppf 45 36 48 42 / 0 0 10 20

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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