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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
344 PM CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

issued at 253 PM CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

Water vapor loop/rap analysis shows a vigorous trough meandering
over the central Great Basin area this afternoon with a moist
middle/upper flow extending downstream across the southern and
Central Plains states. Precipitable water values through the moist
axis ranged from 242 percent of normal at koun to 296 percent of
normal at ktop on the 12z radiosonde observations. At the surface...a cold front was
bisecting southeast Kansas with temperatures across central Kansas at
or below freezing by late morning and temperatures remaining in
the middle and upper 60s across far southeast Kansas.


issued at 343 PM CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

The Winter Weather Advisory across portions of central Kansas will be
upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning as a large area of freezing
rain and mixed precipitation impacts the region this evening and
tonight with another round possible during the day on Friday. Ice
accumulations may exceed 1/4 inch combined with northerly winds
gusting to around 30 knots at times. The Winter Weather Advisory
across portions of southeast Kansas will also be expanded eastward
slightly to include Woodson and Wilson counties on Friday night as
temperatures have trended slightly lower supporting light freezing
rain across portions of southeast Kansas.


Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 253 PM CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

This cold front will continue moving south and east across the area
in the presence of strong 850 mb moisture transport and isentropic
upglide focused across southeast Kansas where a period of enhanced
rainfall seems appropriate through at least the early-middle evening
hours. Meanwhile...rain will gradually transition to freezing rain
across central and portions of south central Kansas. Much of the
heavier precipitation is expected to remain on the warm side where
temperatures are above freezing tonight with freezing drizzle and
light freezing rain anticipated on the cool side where a Winter
Storm Warning remains in effect.

There may be a brief lull in precipitation rates through the
evening and early morning hours where a period of isentropic
downglide is prognosticated...however freezing rain and freezing drizzle
may increase in coverage and intensity once again late tonight
into Friday across south central Kansas as another more subtle impulse
lifts over the area in continued moist middle/upper southwest flow.
With continued low level cold air advection and no insolation
temperatures will likely hover in the 20s and low 30s across much
of south central and central Kansas while highs may remain above
freezing across portions of southeast Kansas. Periods of a light
wintry mix will remain possible over the weekend with little
insolation and much below normal temperatures likely to persist.
Due to timing changes or extension to the
Winter Storm Warning are expected at this time.

Long term...(monday through thursday)
issued at 253 PM CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

Mixed precipitation may linger into early next week as the
middle/upper low translates slowly eastward across The Rockies and
into the Central Plains states...however timing remains uncertain
and with temperatures hovering near freezing...trying to pinpoint
precipitation type remains very difficult.

A return to more seasonable weather and dry conditions is expected
as we move into the Tuesday-Thursday timeframe with highs returning to
climate normals.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 1132 am CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

IFR ceilings will prevail through much of the forecast valid period
along with MVFR visibilities in rain...with a transition to freezing
rain later this afternoon and tonight for locations along and
west of the Kansas Turnpike. Accumulating ice is expected. Some
improvement is expected along the I-70 corridor by Friday morning
with most of the precipitation and lower ceilings and visibilities expected
to be across southern Kansas.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 28 29 27 32 / 100 90 60 50
Hutchinson 26 26 25 31 / 90 90 50 50
Newton 28 28 26 32 / 90 90 50 50
Eldorado 30 31 28 32 / 100 90 60 50
Winfield-kwld 32 32 29 32 / 100 90 70 50
Russell 22 25 21 29 / 80 60 30 30
Great Bend 23 25 21 29 / 80 70 30 40
Salina 25 26 24 31 / 90 70 30 40
McPherson 26 26 25 31 / 90 80 40 40
Coffeyville 36 37 32 36 / 100 90 70 50
Chanute 34 34 31 35 / 100 90 60 50
Iola 33 34 30 35 / 100 90 60 50
Parsons-kppf 35 36 32 35 / 100 90 70 50


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for ksz072-096-099-

Winter Storm Warning until 6 am CST Saturday for ksz049-051>053-

Winter Storm Warning until 6 am CST Saturday for ksz032-033-047-

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 6 am CST Saturday
for ksz032-033-071-095.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 am CST Saturday for ksz094-098.



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