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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
654 PM CDT Thursday Jul 30 2015

..updated for 00z aviation discussion...

Synopsis...
issued at 338 PM CDT Thursday Jul 30 2015

An area of thunderstorms moved across southern Kansas throughout
the daytime hours...diminishing throughout the day as it tracked
through southeast Kansas. As expected the cloud cover and rain
cooled air have kept temperatures cool through the day. Highs have
been in upper 70s where clouds have been and in the low to middle 80s
where the sun has been shining. The main front/outflow boundary is
south across southern/eastern Oklahoma...but there is an area of
low to moderate instability over central/western Kansas as
visible in the low level cumulus field.

Billings Wright

&&

Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 338 PM CDT Thursday Jul 30 2015

Tonight:
despite some low-moderate instability...the high resolution
guidance struggles to show initiation of thunderstorm initiation
across central/western Kansas...have significantly cut down the
chances and kept it closer to the Oklahoma border if anything does
develop.

Friday:
think the main area of precipitation will stay south of the state
line across Oklahoma...but have some very small chances near the
Oklahoma border lingering through the morning. Expecting skies to
be mostly clear...allowing temperatures to return back into the
low to middle 90s. By late Friday there is the chance for the
development of a convective system over Nebraska that will dive
southward and impact north central Kansas the NAM and GFS indicate
this chance and have increased the chances past 00z
Saturday...Friday night.

Saturday-sunday:
a wave will move across the area during the day early Saturday
which will support thunderstorms...but the main focus will be over
southwestern Kansas. Have kept small chances over south central
Kansas Saturday during the day...but think most of the area will
be dry...with Sunday also dry. Temperatures are expected to increase
back into the low to middle 90s through the weekend.

Billings Wright

Long term...(monday through thursday)
issued at 338 PM CDT Thursday Jul 30 2015

The work week will stay hot with highs in the 90s expected to
persist. The upper ridge axis will remain over the inter-mountain
west with northwesterly flow over the Central Plains. There are
some discrepancies with how amplified the ridge is amongst the
guidance...which impacts temperatures and precipitation chances.
The next best chance for precipitation is Monday night into
Wednesday.

Billings Wright

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 630 PM CDT Thursday Jul 30 2015

VFR prevails across the area this evening and this is expected to
persist through the upcoming 24-hour period. Light and variable
winds will remain light and southeast during the day on Friday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 68 92 71 89 / 10 10 10 20
Hutchinson 67 95 68 92 / 10 10 20 10
Newton 66 93 69 89 / 10 10 10 10
Eldorado 67 93 69 90 / 10 10 10 10
Winfield-kwld 68 91 70 88 / 20 20 10 20
Russell 63 92 66 92 / 10 10 20 10
Great Bend 65 91 67 90 / 10 10 20 10
Salina 66 96 69 94 / 10 10 20 10
McPherson 66 94 68 91 / 10 10 20 10
Coffeyville 68 92 70 89 / 20 10 10 10
Chanute 67 92 69 89 / 10 10 10 10
Iola 66 91 69 89 / 10 10 10 10
Parsons-kppf 68 92 69 89 / 20 10 10 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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