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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
625 PM CDT Friday Oct 24 2014

..updated for 00z aviation discussion...

Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 232 PM CDT Friday Oct 24 2014

In the near term...a weak surface trough axis will slide slowly
southward across central/eastern Kansas tonight into Saturday morning.
Very light winds...low dewpoint depressions...clear skies could lead
to areas of fog over eastern Kansas late tonight into early Saturday.

A fairly strong upper ridge will move slowly east across the
central/Southern Plains tonight into this weekend. Anomalously warm
850-700 layer temperatures will therefore spread northeast across
our forecast area. This will lead to well above average temperatures
through this weekend...with highs near record levels Saturday-Sunday
along with dry weather. Some high-level cirroform cloudiness may
increase by Sunday afternoon ahead of the next upper trough/jet
streak pushing through the western states. However...this will be
countered with stronger south-southwesterly winds and mixing.

The western states upper trough will translate progressively
eastward across the Central Plains late Monday into early Tuesday. A
Pacific cold front will be attendant with this upper trough...with
south winds shifting to north behind it. However
moisture/instability transport will be marginal and directed
mainly across southeastern Kansas into Missouri/Arkansas. So we
expect the better shower/thunderstorm chances to be targeting
southeast Kansas eastward...late Monday-early Tuesday. Rain
amounts should be in the 0.10 to 0.40 inch range there...and the
probability of strong-severe storms appears low. Across
central/south central Kansas...rain chances appear very slim with any
amounts only in the hundredths of an inch.

Jmc

Long term...(tuesday through friday)
issued at 232 PM CDT Friday Oct 24 2014

The main energy from the upper trough will lift northeast into the
Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday. A secondary
piece of energy will push from the northern intermountain region
across the Midwest later Wednesday into Thursday...however moisture
will be very limited with this wave and any light precipitation
amounts are prognosticated to remain northeast of our forecast area. By the
end of the week...longwave ridging will build up over the western
Continental U.S. With longwave troughing over the eastern Continental U.S.. the net effect
of the above upper pattern features will be drier air with
temperatures close to average for the last week of October.

Jmc

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 620 PM CDT Friday Oct 24 2014

A weak frontal boundary will sink southward across Kansas
tonight...and the combination of winds becoming light ahead of the
front and residual low level moisture/clear skies tonight could
give way to areas of fog development again. The fog could become
dense in spots. Otherwise winds will switch to the east Saturday
morning then veer out to the southeast for the afternoon hours.

Jakub

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 58 87 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
Hutchinson 56 86 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
Newton 57 85 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
Eldorado 58 86 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
Winfield-kwld 58 87 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 50 84 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
Great Bend 52 84 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
Salina 53 85 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
McPherson 55 85 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
Coffeyville 57 85 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
Chanute 57 84 60 85 / 0 0 0 0
Iola 57 84 58 85 / 0 0 0 0
Parsons-kppf 57 84 60 86 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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