Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
548 PM CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015
..updated for 00z aviation discussion...
Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 314 PM CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015
Main concerns remain wintry precipitation type/accums late Thursday
into Friday along/west of Turnpike...and heavy rainfall/flood
potential in southeast Kansas. The latest model guidance
suggests the spirit of the going forecast remain on track.
Vigorous upper trough over the western Continental U.S. Will become a
closed cut-off low through the late week periods...with an
active southwest flow regime aloft setting up over the area
where shallow polar air will plunge south across the plains.
Plentiful moisture advecting into and just over the surface
cold front on Thursday into early Friday will result in a
significant quantitative precipitation forecast event across the area...with impacts on the
cold and warm side of the boundary. Widespread rainfall is
still expected to develop during Thursday morning...with
frontal timing bringing colder air across central Kansas...
and then eventually to along the Turnpike corridor by the
early afternoon. Thermal profiles and point soundings
support a transition to freezing rain across parts of central
Kansas during the day with minor ice accumulations. As the
colder air behind the front advects south across the rest of
the area into Thursday night...this southward transition to
freezing rain will continue into much of south central Kansas.
Some sleet is also expected across central Kansas by late
Thursday night into early Friday. Meanwhile...the bulk of the
heavier quantitative precipitation forecast will affect southeast Kansas early Thursday night
before shifting east of the forecast area by Friday morning.
The combination of gusty north winds and ice accums to near
one-quarter inch in some areas of central and south central
Kansas could result in some downed power lines and tree
limbs...besides hazardous travel. Heavy rainfall in excess of
three inches is also expected to cause significant rises on
rivers and creeks in southeast Kansas...so a Flood Watch will
be issued for several counties. Confidence on wintry quantitative precipitation forecast and
type is lower as we move into Friday night and Saturday...as
some drier air may try to advect into parts of central Kansas.
However...additional minor shortwaves aloft may affect southern
Kansas giving these areas a better chance for bouts of light
freezing rain/freezing drizzle or rain...depending on surface
Long term...(sunday through wednesday)
issued at 314 PM CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015
The shallow cold air will be slow to modify to close out the
Holiday weekend...with a portion of the western Continental U.S. Upper low
coming out across The Rockies and northern High Plains during
Sunday...then slowly moving across the northern plains on Monday
into Monday night. Little change to the going forecast will be
made...with slight to modest probability of precipitation for mixed precipitation or rain.
Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 548 PM CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015
Difficult aviation forecast with the cold front moving in and cold
air infiltrating changing rain to freezing rain and sleet. MVFR to
IFR ceilings are expected to prevail through much of the forecast.
Low level moisture is streaming northward which will cause
terminals ahead of the front to have ceilings dropping tonight and
stay low through the day tomorrow. The front is already through
krsl and kgbd and with this have quickened up the frontal passage
through the forecast area following the quicker rap/hrrr/GFS.
Freezing precipitation will move in to central Kansas and mainly
krsl by afternoon Thursday...but is currently expected to be just
before 00z at kgbd/ksln. Rain will become freezing rain with a
significant warm nose aloft. Freezing rain will become sleet at
krsl near 00z Thursday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 56 59 30 31 / 90 100 100 70
Hutchinson 49 52 27 29 / 90 100 90 60
Newton 54 56 27 30 / 90 100 100 70
Eldorado 56 58 30 32 / 80 100 100 70
Winfield-kwld 58 60 32 33 / 80 100 100 70
Russell 36 37 23 28 / 80 90 60 40
Great Bend 38 40 23 27 / 80 90 70 50
Salina 41 43 26 30 / 80 100 80 50
McPherson 47 49 27 29 / 90 100 90 60
Coffeyville 58 63 37 38 / 60 90 100 80
Chanute 56 62 35 36 / 70 100 100 80
Iola 56 61 34 35 / 70 100 100 80
Parsons-kppf 57 63 36 37 / 60 100 100 80
Flash Flood Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to 6 am CST Saturday
Winter Weather Advisory from noon Thursday to 6 am CST Saturday