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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
302 PM CDT sun Aug 30 2015

Synopsis...
issued at 301 PM CDT sun Aug 30 2015

Water vapor imagery shows a number of weak impulses across the
plains. One is rotating across far eastern OK with another
circulation over southern Texas. Meanwhile...upper troughing is
situated over the Pacific northwest. At the surface...what is left of the
cold front stretches from eastern MO down into SW OK with a weak
area of low pressure along the Red River.

&&

Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 301 PM CDT sun Aug 30 2015

A few storms will be possible early this evening over
east/northeast OK with this activity expected to remain southeast
of the forecast area. Will go ahead and insert some fog again
tonight for most locations. While confidence in dense fog is not
high...will run with area descriptor across the northeast portion
of forecast area where low level moisture profile will be more
conducive for fog.

The main story through Wednesday will be for a return to above normal
temperatures. This will be the result of troughing remaining over the
Pacific northwest which will increase Lee surface troughing and
associated return flow/better mixing. Models have remained
consistent with 850mb temperatures which would support 90s Monday-Wednesday with
upper 90s a good bet for areas west of I-135. Some weak upper
energy will move out of The Rockies on Tuesday which will flatten out
of the upper flow and allow some monsoonal moisture to possibly
affect central Kansas. So will run with some small rain chances in
these areas Tuesday night.

Long term...(thursday through sunday)
issued at 301 PM CDT sun Aug 30 2015

Pattern is expected remain fairly stable through these extended
periods with upper troughing over the northwest Continental U.S. With a broad area
of ridging over the southeast. This pattern will allow well above
normal temperatures to continue through the week. There is decent model
agreement that by the end of the weekend some more robust
shortwave energy will start to impact at least central
Kansas...resulting in an increase in rain chances.

Lawson

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1225 PM CDT sun Aug 30 2015

A few areas of MVFR ceilings remain however VFR is expected to return
as we move through the afternoon hours. There is some concern that
patchy MVFR visibility/ceilings may return after midnight across the area with
light southeast winds and a relatively moist planetary boundary layer.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 66 94 70 95 / 10 10 10 10
Hutchinson 64 94 70 95 / 10 0 10 10
Newton 65 93 69 94 / 10 10 10 10
Eldorado 66 92 69 94 / 10 10 10 10
Winfield-kwld 66 94 70 94 / 10 10 10 10
Russell 61 98 67 96 / 0 0 10 10
Great Bend 63 97 68 96 / 0 0 10 10
Salina 63 94 68 95 / 0 0 10 10
McPherson 64 93 69 94 / 10 0 10 10
Coffeyville 67 91 69 92 / 10 10 10 10
Chanute 67 91 69 91 / 10 10 10 10
Iola 67 91 69 91 / 10 10 10 10
Parsons-kppf 66 91 69 92 / 10 10 10 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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