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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
243 PM CDT Thursday Jul 31 2014

Synopsis...
issued at 243 PM CDT Thursday Jul 31 2014

All is quiet across the neighborhood this afternoon as broad but weak
high pressure covers the area. Temperatures are ~10f below normal with
scattered cumulus.

&&

Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 243 PM CDT Thursday Jul 31 2014

Tonight:
a potential for patchy fog still exists across southeast Kansas toward day
break where damp grounds & light wind would favor such development. (As
was the case early this morning.) The possible inhibitor is that of middle
level clouds (8,000-10,000ft altocu) that'll spread southeast central Kansas this
evening then across south-central Kansas around mid-night. For consistency
sake have kept "patchy fog" applied to southeast Kansas.

Fri;
should it develop the patchy fog across southeast Kansas will dissipate by
10 am. Warmer weather then returns as a weak northeast to southwest
surface trough moves southeast across central Kansas. Any chance of thunderstorms
would occur from Nebraska to southern Wisconsin where a weak middle-level
shortwave will move southeast across the middle-upper MS valley in the afternoon.

This weekend:
nice weather continues as a large & fairly strong middle-upper deck high
pressure spreads slowly southeast from the northern & central rockies across
most of the Great Plains. Afternoon temperatures from 85-90f are still
anticopated Sat & sun afternoons.

Long term...(monday through thursday)
issued at 243 PM CDT Thursday Jul 31 2014

Scattered thunderstorms are still scheduled to arrive central & south
central Kansas Tuesday night as a broad positively-tilted middle-level trough moves
southeast across the northern plains. The middle-level shortwave will experience
cyclogenesis as it encounters a weak middle-level ridge extending from the
Great Lakes to along the Ontario/Quebec border Wednesday evening. With the
sharpening middle-level trough extending SW across Kansas thunderstorms should
gradually increase in a northwest-southeast manner Wednesday night & Thursday as the southeast-moving
middle-level shortwave sweeps a cold front southeast across Kansas. The thunderstorms
may be quite strong with both small hail & 40-50 miles per hour gusts.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 1220 PM CDT Thursday Jul 31 2014

Patchy radiational ground fog is expected again across portions of
southeast and south central Kansas early Friday morning. Impacts
are expected to be brief with any fog rather shallow in nature.
However a period of IFR and MVFR visibilities are expected around dawn.
Otherwise light winds and VFR conditions are expected the rest of
the forecast valid period with diurnal cumulus bases above 3000 feet.

Ked

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 63 88 65 88 / 0 0 0 0
Hutchinson 63 89 64 87 / 0 0 0 0
Newton 62 88 64 86 / 0 0 0 0
Eldorado 62 86 64 88 / 0 0 0 0
Winfield-kwld 63 87 66 89 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 64 90 63 90 / 0 0 0 0
Great Bend 62 91 63 88 / 0 0 0 0
Salina 64 90 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
McPherson 63 89 64 87 / 0 0 0 0
Coffeyville 62 88 65 87 / 0 0 0 0
Chanute 62 86 65 85 / 0 0 0 0
Iola 62 86 65 85 / 0 0 0 0
Parsons-kppf 62 87 65 86 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Es

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