Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
641 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014

..updated for 00z aviation discussion...

Synopsis...
issued at 330 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014

A northwest-southeast oriented band of light showers has occurring from the eastern
segment of the OK Panhandle to extreme North Texas early this afternoon.
The showers have been drifting east & will therefore remain well to the SW
of kict country. Mostly cloudy skies & a light generally easterly wind
have kept temperatures in check with most areas in the 80s with parts
of southeast Kansas in the middle 70s.

&&

Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 330 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014

Forecast highlights:
1) moderate & perhaps heavy rains to spread east across south-central
Kansas early tomorrow morning.
2) record coolest highs are likely in Wichita tomorrow.

Tonight-tomorrow night:
a middle-level shortwave will develop over the Texas/OK panhandles very early
tomorrow morning which would induce weak lower-deck frontogenesis from
southwest Kansas to western OK. The resulting 850-mb Theta-E advection from
the Texas Panhandle/western OK border is strong & with a compact region of
increasing lift occurring over the panhandles...embedded thunderstorms
are certain. Instability is limited (especially over kict country). As
such any thunderstorms that can develop over south- central Kansas would be
isolated. Flash flood guidance remains high across south- central Kansas
with 3-hourly values between 3.0 & 3.5 inches. As such checked swing on
flood/Flash Flood Watch issuance. With the weak east/west oriented middle-level
shortwave sinking due south toward then across the Red River tomorrow
afternoon the bulk of the rainfall would likewise get forced south of
the neighborhood tomorrow evening. With "high" temperatures around 70f
coolest high records are likely across south-central Kansas.

Thursday-Fri:
very cool weather with highs ~10f below normal with lows 7-10f below
normal remain likely across the neighborhood Thursday & Thursday night as weak
high pressure spreads almost due south across Kansas. A warmup begins on
Friday as a weak surface trough settles southeast across Kansas thereby inducing modest
SW-west flow across the area.

Long term...(saturday through tuesday)
issued at 330 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014

Next weekend:
nice weather continues for all areas as a fairly strong middle-upper ridge
spreads slowly east from The Rockies across the Great Plains.

Monday-Tue:
a few thunderstorms are possible over central Kansas late Monday night & Tuesday
as a weak middle-level shortwave lifts slowly north/NE from the Colorado/Wyoming border
toward central Nebraska. The developing Western Plains surface troffing
would result in a gradual warmup with highs ~90f Monday & Tuesday.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 641 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014

Scattered showers with some embedded thunder during the day
Wednesday will be the main threats during this taf period. Rain
will move in from the west and mainly impact krsl/khut/kict and
kcnu with some brief chances at ksln. The heaviest rains will be
along and near the Oklahoma/Kansas border then south into
Oklahoma. Showers will be present overnight with instability
increasing during the day Wednesday when thunderstorms in the vicinity has been introduced
to the tafs. Do not think thunder will be constant...but the
threat is there sporadically thus the thunderstorms in the vicinity. Winds will be easterly
through the period and generally light.

Billings Wright

&&

Climate...

Record coolest high temperatures:

July 30th:

Wichita: 73 in 1971
chanute: 72 in 1971

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 65 70 59 82 / 60 80 30 0
Hutchinson 64 71 59 82 / 60 80 20 0
Newton 63 70 59 82 / 60 60 20 0
Eldorado 63 70 58 82 / 60 70 20 0
Winfield-kwld 64 70 60 82 / 60 90 30 10
Russell 63 78 62 83 / 50 50 10 0
Great Bend 63 74 60 82 / 60 70 10 0
Salina 64 79 61 84 / 50 40 10 0
McPherson 63 73 60 83 / 60 60 10 0
Coffeyville 63 71 60 82 / 50 50 40 10
Chanute 63 74 60 83 / 40 50 20 0
Iola 62 76 60 83 / 40 40 20 0
Parsons-kppf 62 72 60 83 / 50 50 30 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations