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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
315 am CDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014

Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 315 am CDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014

Scattered to numerous showers/embedded thunderstorms were moving
east into central Kansas early this morning...supported by a lead
upper shortwave associated with the larger upper trough moving out
across the northern plains. The better elevated moisture transport
resulting in modest instability will reside across this region of
the forecast area through the morning...so will continue to show
the highest probability of precipitation along/north of Highway 50. The better diurnal
surface based instability will reside out across western Kansas to
the east of the Lee surface trough later this afternoon...which will
support renewed convection that is expected to move into western
portions of the forecast area. The activity should then track
further east across the area tonight...aided by the lift from the
main upper trough axis as it shifts east across western into central
Kansas. The weakening upper trough/shear axis will slow its east
progress on Wednesday as it moves across eastern Kansas. The
weaker upper support will still support some lingering and renewed
convection...which supports the going modest chance probability of precipitation mainly
along/west of the Turnpike. The building upper ridge axis across
The Rockies into the northern plains on Thursday will shift the
much weaker trough axis south of the area...which should limit any
convection to a more isolated nature if at all...so will keep the
forecast dry. Temperatures are expected to gradually warm to a bit
above seasonal climatology by Thursday.

Darmofal

Long term...(friday through monday)
issued at 315 am CDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014

The building upper ridge axis into the upper Midwest and Great
Lakes will support light easterlies late in the week causing the
weak upper trough to retrograde west over the plains again. While
isolated convection cannot be ruled out it appears instability
will be lacking or weak so will keep the forecast dry Friday and
to start the weekend. The medium range models suggest a deeper
upper trough will develop along the West Coast and move inland by
early next week. This may result in some precipitation chances by the end
of the forecast period across western and central Kansas.

Ked

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1128 PM CDT Monday Sep 22 2014

A line of showers and embedded thunderstorms will move eastward
into central Kansas around daybreak...as an upper level wave moves
east across the Central Plains. Cloud bases are expected to remain
in the VFR category with southerly winds becoming gusty during the
day.

Jakub

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 80 58 81 60 / 20 40 30 20
Hutchinson 79 58 81 59 / 40 50 40 20
Newton 77 57 79 58 / 30 50 40 20
Eldorado 78 57 79 58 / 20 40 30 20
Winfield-kwld 79 59 80 60 / 20 30 30 20
Russell 79 58 81 59 / 60 60 30 20
Great Bend 80 58 81 59 / 60 60 30 20
Salina 78 58 80 59 / 50 60 40 20
McPherson 78 58 80 59 / 40 60 40 20
Coffeyville 78 55 79 56 / 10 10 10 10
Chanute 77 55 78 56 / 10 10 20 20
Iola 76 55 78 56 / 10 20 20 20
Parsons-kppf 78 55 78 56 / 10 10 20 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

$$

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