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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1134 am CST Monday Nov 24 2014

..updated for 18z aviation discussion...

Short term...(today through wednesday)
issued at 324 am CST Monday Nov 24 2014

A long wave trough was situated across the central Continental U.S. With
northwest middle/upper flow developing across the Central Plains
states. This pattern will result in a progressive regime through the
short range periods with multiple subtle shortwave troughs moving
over the Great Plains states through the upcoming week. Due to the
progressive nature and limited moisture availability...only an
increase in middle and high level clouds is anticipated as well as
breezy/windy conditions within a deeply mixed planetary boundary layer. Seasonably mild
temperatures can be expected Mon-Wed. Winds may have to be increased
during the day on Wednesday as large-scale forcing for subsidence
increases on the SW periphery of a middle/upper trough digging over the
middle Mississippi Valley area.

Long term...(thursday through sunday)
issued at 324 am CST Monday Nov 24 2014

A progressive middle/upper flow is expected to persist through the end
of the week leading to a continuation of mild late November
temperatures and dry weather conditions across the Central Plains
states. As we move into the weekend we begin to see some timing
differences between the GFS and European model (ecmwf). The GFS is more progressive
with the shortwave trough translating eastward across the northern
plains states. This would allow a surge of Canadian air to arrive
across the Central Plains early in the weekend. The European model (ecmwf) remains a
bit slower driving this airmass south across the area. Maintained
mild/above normal temperatures through Saturday before trending
cooler on Sunday across the area while maintaining a dry forecast.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1131 am CST Monday Nov 24 2014

Northwest winds will remain strong and gusty through the middle-
afternoon hours then decrease around sunset. VFR conditions will
prevail across central and southeastern Kansas during the next
24hrs...as surface high pressure builds into the region and slides
eastward on Tuesday with southwest winds returning.

Jakub

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 51 23 52 33 / 0 0 0 0
Hutchinson 49 23 51 32 / 0 0 0 0
Newton 48 22 50 33 / 0 0 0 0
Eldorado 49 24 51 35 / 0 0 0 0
Winfield-kwld 53 24 53 33 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 49 22 51 31 / 0 0 0 0
Great Bend 50 23 51 32 / 0 0 0 0
Salina 48 23 53 34 / 0 0 0 10
McPherson 48 22 51 33 / 0 0 0 0
Coffeyville 53 25 52 33 / 10 0 0 0
Chanute 49 23 50 32 / 10 0 0 10
Iola 48 23 49 31 / 10 0 0 10
Parsons-kppf 51 22 51 31 / 10 0 0 0

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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