Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
330 am CDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015
Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 329 am CDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015
Forecast highlights through early next weekend focus around
thunderstorm chances today- Wednesday evening...cooler
temperatures today...and a warming trend through late
Anticipating shower/thunderstorm chances to increase from the
west/southwest this morning...in response to increasing 850-700mb
warm/moist advection ahead of shortwave energy approaching from
the west. Consequently...went likely probability of precipitation across mainly south-
central Kansas along/west of the Flint Hills by middle-late morning.
These chances should shift primarily into east/southeast Kansas for
the afternoon. All- in-all...this elevated activity this morning-
afternoon should remain below strong/severe levels due to limited
instability/poor middle-level lapse rates...but anomalously high
precipitable waters may promote locally heavy rain.
For later this afternoon-tonight...scattered strong/severe storms
are expected to develop over northwest Kansas within an environment of
increasing instability and deep layer shear. Expected movement
would allow this activity to potentially clip central Kansas this
evening...with the primary threats large hail and damaging winds.
Additional scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to
develop across the eastern half of Kansas this evening and
overnight...as additional upper energy approaching from the
northwest produces strong 850-700mb warm/moist advection.
Increasing elevated instability and steepening middle-level lapse
rates may promote a handful of additional strong/severe
storms...along with locally heavy rain.
Widespread showers/thunderstorms will gradually exit eastern Kansas
Wednesday morning. By afternoon...additional shortwave energy
approaching from the northwest will drive a cold front into
southeast Kansas by peak heating. Ample deep layer shear and
instability should promote at least isolated to widely scattered
strong/severe storms over southeast Kansas Wednesday afternoon-
evening. Degree of instability/shear combo as advertised by the
NAM/GFS may promote isolated higher-end severe weather.
Thunderstorm chances should finally exit the region Thursday.
Long term...(friday through monday)
issued at 329 am CDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015
A persistent/building ridge across the southern Continental U.S. Should
allow for seasonably warm temperatures turning above normal by
late week- weekend. Middle-upper 90s to low 100s appear reasonable at
this time. The placement of the upper ridge over the southern
Continental U.S. In concert with the possibility of a series of quasi-
stationary frontal zones oriented west-east across the region
should promote periodic thunderstorm chances from late week into
at least early next week...especially over the northern half of Kansas
and Nebraska during the late afternoon-overnight hours.
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1138 PM CDT Monday Aug 3 2015
VFR conditions expected for at least the first 6-12 hours. Expect
chances of showers and thunderstorms to increase initially over
central and south central Kansas by Tuesday morning as a shortwave moves
across the area from western Kansas. So will go with thunderstorms in the vicinity by around
12z/Tuesday for the kict/khut/krsl and ksln taf sites. Have enough
confidence in thunderstorms and rain chances to go with prevailing thunderstorms and rain and MVFR
visibilities for kict/khut for the late morning hours on Tuesday as the
shortwave moves across.
Some uncertainty on how late Tuesday afternoon will progress as
amount of recovery from morning convection may keep afternoon
convective chances at a minimum except for kcnu. Could see some
convection redevelop over central and south central Kansas for Tuesday
evening. So will go with a thunderstorms in the vicinity for most locations Tuesday evening as
low level moisture transport increases.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 83 69 92 72 / 60 50 30 10
Hutchinson 83 68 92 70 / 50 50 20 10
Newton 82 68 89 70 / 60 60 40 10
Eldorado 83 68 90 70 / 60 60 40 20
Winfield-kwld 83 69 92 72 / 60 60 30 20
Russell 84 68 91 69 / 40 50 20 10
Great Bend 84 68 92 70 / 40 50 10 10
Salina 84 68 91 70 / 50 50 30 10
McPherson 82 68 91 70 / 50 50 30 10
Coffeyville 87 70 90 72 / 60 60 60 30
Chanute 88 69 88 70 / 70 70 60 30
Iola 88 69 87 69 / 70 70 60 30
Parsons-kppf 88 70 89 71 / 60 70 60 30