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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1027 am CST sun Mar 1 2015

issued at 1027 am CST sun Mar 1 2015

Updated precipitation chances through the early part of the
afternoon. While guidance is not indicating much...the earlier
runs of the hrrr seemed to do the best for current radar
indications and have tried to follow that for the best trends.
Think that the upper jet dynamics will keep some lift around into
the early afternoon least over southern and
southeastern Kansas. This will produce a wintry mix of freezing
rain/sleet and snow. This will cause travel impacts and thus have
extended the Winter Weather Advisory until 20z for much of the
area...clearing out central Kansas counties where the
precipitation has ended. Will plan to clear the advisory from west
to east as the precipitation ends and/or extend if needed if the
wintry weather persists longer than 20z. At this time feel that
the best chance for that occurring would be over southeast
Kansas...expect chances to diminish over south central Kansas
towards the early afternoon hours. Increased ice mention with the
freezing rain...but only a few hundredths expected...icing had
already occurred at the Wichita forecast office. Slick roadways
are expected as this persists.

Billings Wright

Update issued at 735 am CST sun Mar 1 2015

Have made updates to probability of precipitation and weather over the last hour.

Increased precipitation chances this morning over south central and southeast Kansas
as radar trends continue to show returns building back to the
southwest. Also took out mention of freezing drizzle and added
sleet based on reports and current observation. Not expecting much in the
way of accumulations but maybe just enough to keep roadways slick.
So will maintain the Winter Weather Advisory.



Short term...(today through tuesday)
issued at 322 am CST sun Mar 1 2015

There is a chance for a weak middle-level band of snow to develop over
central Kansas into eastern Kansas early this morning...with some
light snow and little accumulation possible...mainly near the
Highway 50 corridor. The main hazard for this morning will be
areas of dense freezing fog and patchy freezing drizzle over south
central and southeast Kansas...which could create a light glaze on
elevated surfaces and untreated roadways along with reduced
visibilities to around one quarter of a mile.

Dry weather is expected for tonight into early Monday with a
chance of of drizzle possibly developing Monday low
level moisture returns northward. Daytime highs on Monday should
rise some compared to sunday's highs but values will still be
well below normal for early March...especially for the snow
covered areas. Chances of rain look to increase for eastern Kansas
on Monday night into Tuesday...with a few weak elevated
thunderstorms possible over far southeast Kansas. The Arctic cold
front will surge southward across Kansas during the day on
Tuesday...with falling temperatures in the afternoon accompanied
by strong gusty north winds. The colder air would change the
precipitation over to a rain snow mixture for central Kansas
Tuesday afternoon...with chances of light snow for Tuesday night.
At this juncture snow accumulations are looking rather low for
Tuesday night.

Long term...(wednesday through saturday)
issued at 322 am CST sun Mar 1 2015

Other than some possible lingering light snow for southeast Kansas
Wednesday morning the better chances should be for locations
southeast of the area. Daytime highs on Wednesday will be well below
normal especially for snow cover areas across southern Kansas.
Otherwise...a dry weather pattern will be in store for Thursday-
Saturday with a gradual warming trend for Friday into the weekend.



Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 530 am CST sun Mar 1 2015

Main aviation concerns will be fog and low ceilings this morning.

Locally dense fog developed overnight over mainly south central
Kansas. Kict was the most affected with LIFR visibilities and
ceilings. Conditions have started to slowly improve over the last
half hour and would expect this to continue. However...still
expecting at least IFR conditions this morning at kict-khut. Some
light snow/sleet is quickly making its way across south central
and southeast Kansas and will be out of the forecast area in the next hour.
Not expecting any accumulation with this. High pressure is
expected to settle over the area late this afternoon through the
overnight hours which will allow VFR conditions to move back in.



Fire weather...
issued at 322 am CST sun Mar 1 2015

Fire weather concerns will remain very low for the next several days
due to snow cover blanketing much of the area...along with rain
chances for Monday night into Tuesday.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 31 20 35 34 / 50 10 20 30
Hutchinson 32 20 34 33 / 30 10 20 30
Newton 30 19 34 34 / 70 10 20 30
Eldorado 30 20 35 34 / 50 10 20 40
Winfield-kwld 31 21 36 35 / 50 10 20 40
Russell 33 18 37 34 / 10 10 20 20
Great Bend 33 19 37 34 / 10 10 20 20
Salina 34 20 36 33 / 20 10 20 30
McPherson 32 19 35 33 / 30 10 20 30
Coffeyville 33 22 37 36 / 40 10 20 60
Chanute 31 21 36 35 / 40 10 20 60
Iola 31 20 36 35 / 50 10 20 60
Parsons-kppf 32 22 36 35 / 40 10 20 60


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for ksz053-



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