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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
321 am CDT Thursday Oct 2 2014

Short term...(today through saturday)
issued at 319 am CDT Thursday Oct 2 2014

Current surface observations and fine line on radar imagery show the
cold front pushing through Barton...Ellsworth...and Lincoln counties
across central Kansas. Starting to see some elevated convection
develop behind the front...this convection should continue to fill
in across central Kansas throughout the morning hours as upper level
energy approaches from the west. As this energy continues lifts
into southwest Kansas for today...the main concern will be the
potential for strong-severe storms that will likely develop ahead of
the cold front east of the Flint Hills this afternoon. Ongoing
convection across far southeast Kansas will continue into the
morning hours as moisture transport continues ahead of the cold
front. Any lingering clouds in southeast Kansas may inhibit surface
heating and further destabilization...however with strong forcing
along the cold front and weak/moderate instability already in place
expect strong-severe storms to redevelop along and east of the Flint
Hills during the early afternoon hours. The main threat will
initially be large hail with surface based cape ranging from
2000-3000j/kg and deep layer shear approaching 40-50kts. Straight
line damaging winds will become the main threat once the deep layer
shear becomes oriented parallel to forcing along the cold front and
storms congeal into a squall line. This line of storms will vacate
southeast Kansas this evening and usher in cooler and drier air for
Friday and the weekend.

A second cold front will push through central Kansas on Friday as an
area of high pressure drops down from the northern rockies.
Northerly winds will increase throughout Friday and cooler air will
settle into central Kansas Friday night. The combination of clear
skies and light winds will lead to temperatures dropping into the
middle 30s across central Kansas and upper 30s across south central and
southeast Kansas. Areas of patchy frost may develop...especially
across central Kansas where temperatures will be cooler. Saturday is
shaping up to be a gorgeous fall day with easterly winds and
seasonal temperatures as northwest flow continues across the area.

Long term...(sunday through wednesday)
issued at 319 am CDT Thursday Oct 2 2014

Northwest flow will continue across Kansas through Wednesday as the
upper level wave becomes cutoff over the Great Lakes. The surface
ridge of high pressure traverses central and eastern Kansas
southerly flow will return and temperatures will slowly warm back up
into the 80s by early next week.

Ritzman

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1140 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014

Widely scattered strong to severe convection will remain possible
overnight...mainly east of the Kansas Turnpike. Otherwise an area
of Post-frontal showers/embedded storms and development of lower
MVFR ceilings are expected behind a cold front...which will move east
across the area late tonight and Thursday. Clearing skies and VFR
conditions should develop across central Kansas in the afternoon
and across southeast Kansas by late Thursday evening.

Ked

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 72 47 64 37 / 50 10 0 0
Hutchinson 68 46 64 36 / 50 10 10 0
Newton 70 46 63 36 / 50 10 10 0
Eldorado 74 47 63 36 / 60 10 10 0
Winfield-kwld 75 48 65 38 / 50 10 0 0
Russell 65 43 61 35 / 50 10 10 0
Great Bend 65 44 62 36 / 60 10 10 0
Salina 66 45 60 36 / 60 10 10 0
McPherson 67 46 61 36 / 60 10 10 0
Coffeyville 85 51 66 37 / 90 40 0 0
Chanute 82 50 63 35 / 90 40 10 0
Iola 80 50 62 35 / 90 40 10 0
Parsons-kppf 84 50 64 36 / 90 40 0 0

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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