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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
638 PM CDT Monday Apr 27 2015

..updated for 00z aviation discussion...

Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 327 PM CDT Monday Apr 27 2015

Tonight-Tue:
will continue to linger probability of precipitation along OK border tonight as upper low
slowly drifts east. Chances on Tuesday look too low to mention at this
point...although area right on OK border in southeast Kansas might get
clipped by a stray shower. Lows should be slightly cooler in
north with less clouds and drier air. With a bit more insolation
for much of the area on Tuesday...expect highs to warm slightly as
well.

Tuesday night-Thu:
surface high pressure will build over the area. Models are
consistent with vorticity maximum moving through Tuesday night/early
Wednesday with attendent increase in middle/high clouds. At this point low
levels remain quite dry and will keep forecast dry as well...although
sprinkles are possible. -Howerton

Long term...(friday through monday)
issued at 327 PM CDT Monday Apr 27 2015

Models in fairly good agreement with upper flow transition
throughout this period. Ridging will be the rule on Fri-Sat. This
is then quickly replaced by zonal flow for the remainder of the
forecast. With this comes two issues...potential for weak ripples
in the flow and possibility of convection over High Plains
rolling into the area overnight. At this point...best chances will
be in the night periods in central Kansas...with chances increasing
for sun/Monday as a more substantial shortwave appears to be moving
through. -Howerton

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 638 PM CDT Monday Apr 27 2015

Large upper low continues to make slow progress across SW OK at this
time...with a large expanse of rain showers to the north of this low...with
the northern edge barely skimming along the Kansas/OK border. Short
term high-res models keep this precipitation shield along the Kansas/OK border
this evening...and gradually dropping it southeast away from Kansas by
Tuesday morning. Expect some high cloudiness associated with this
precipitation to continue over southern Kansas...otherwise the only taf concern
will be northerly to northeast winds across the forecast area...with
VFR conditions.

Ketcham

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 45 67 44 73 / 20 10 0 0
Hutchinson 42 66 43 72 / 10 0 0 0
Newton 43 66 44 71 / 10 0 0 0
Eldorado 45 67 44 71 / 10 10 0 10
Winfield-kwld 46 67 43 73 / 40 10 0 10
Russell 40 68 45 72 / 0 0 10 0
Great Bend 41 67 43 72 / 10 0 0 0
Salina 42 68 44 72 / 0 0 10 0
McPherson 41 67 44 72 / 10 0 0 0
Coffeyville 47 65 43 72 / 30 10 10 0
Chanute 46 66 44 72 / 10 10 0 0
Iola 46 66 43 71 / 10 10 0 0
Parsons-kppf 47 66 43 72 / 20 10 0 0

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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