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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
101 PM CDT Friday Apr 18 2014

..updated for 18z aviation discussion...

Short term...(today through sunday)
issued at 328 am CDT Friday Apr 18 2014

Easter weekend:
all areas to get windy & warmer today & Saturday as Western Plains
surface troffing begins to assert itself. Inherited temperatures look
good. Notable changes have been made to Sat night with thunderstorm
arrival being delayed until late Sat night as middle-upper wave remains
over Western Plains thereby slowing southeast progress of attendant surface
cold front. Lowest ~15,000ft of airmass is quite dry even as far northwest as
the northwest corridor of forecast area (nw of Salina-great bend). Some middle-
level moistening does occur over the areas from ~3-7am so did assign a
thunderstorm mention over central Kansas late Sunday night although these
probabilities have been lowered none-the-less. It could be somewhat
soggy Easter as the afore-mentioned middle-upper wave ventures further east
over western Kansas. This would of course push cold front further southeast over
western Kansas. Lower-deck moisture advection increases as does lower-deck
convergence (albeit gradually). Have retained ~50% probability of precipitation across central
& south-central Kansas. Greatest shower & thunderstorm potential spreads
slowly east toward eastern Kansas Sunday night but progression is slow so as
such have spread 50-60% thunderstorm chances further west covering all of
central & south-central Kansas. Slow southeast progress of middle-level wave strong
thunderstorms are possible Sunday night.

Long term...(monday through thursday)
issued at 328 am CDT Friday Apr 18 2014

Monday & Monday night:
slow east/southeast advancement of overall pattern dictates keeping all facets
of inherited forecast (20-50% chances for showers & thunderstorms with
the much higher chances over southeast ks) intact to reflect depicted
cold frontal positioning. Showers & thunderstorms should exit
southeast Kansas Monday afternoon as southeast-moving middle-level wave vacates these
areas.

Tuesday-Thu:
after a dry Tuesday thunderstorm return Tuesday night as a strong middle-upper
cyclone ventures toward...then across...the northern rockies Wednesday & Wednesday
night. The slow eastward progress of the cyclone & it's attendant trough
will result in a prolonged period of thunderstorms throughout middle-week
& with this being a more dynamic pattern the chances for severe
thunderstorms should increase. Stay tuned.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1251 PM CDT Friday Apr 18 2014

Fog/haze was observed this morning across much of Kansas.
This was more than likely a result of the smoke aerosols that were
left in the atmosphere overnight.

VFR conditions will continue into the evening hours as winds
gradually increase from the south. Skies remain somewhat hazy as
of 18z.

Haze lasting into the late morning seems to have caused the
statistical guidance to forecast more fog tonight at
ksln...khut...and kict. Think this is a very low probability event
given the amount of wind forecast overnight. Left out of the taf
forecasts.

Winds increase again Saturday and by 15z...should be south-
southwest at 25g35 knots...5-8 knots less at kcnu.

Cook

&&

Fire weather...
issued at 328 am CDT Friday Apr 18 2014

With the increasing southerly lower-deck flow advecting warmer & drier
air across the region (especially central & south-central ks) the fire
danger will increase today & Sat. The red flags won't be hoisted but
very high fire danger potential will exist across central & south
central Kansas Sat afternoon.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 70 50 77 58 / 0 0 10 10
Hutchinson 70 51 77 58 / 0 0 10 10
Newton 68 51 75 57 / 0 0 10 10
Eldorado 69 50 76 58 / 0 0 10 10
Winfield-kwld 70 50 77 58 / 0 0 10 10
Russell 71 53 79 57 / 0 0 10 20
Great Bend 70 52 78 58 / 0 0 10 20
Salina 70 52 79 57 / 0 0 10 20
McPherson 70 51 77 57 / 0 0 10 10
Coffeyville 70 48 77 56 / 0 0 10 10
Chanute 70 48 76 56 / 0 0 10 10
Iola 69 48 76 56 / 0 0 10 10
Parsons-kppf 70 48 76 56 / 0 0 10 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$