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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1205 am CDT sun Apr 19 2015

..updated for 06z aviation discussion...

Synopsis...
issued at 358 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

Strong thunderstorms...which may obviously achieve severity...have
developed over parts of central & south-central Kansas west of I-135.
As was expected...the thunderstorms developed in areas where skies
had cleared and with 55-60f dewpoints destablization was fairly
rapid. At 252 PM CDT ping pong Ball-sized hail was reported in
Barton County.

&&

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 358 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

Tonight:
obviously severe thunderstorms are drawing greatest attention. The
well-defined middle-upper cyclone that has been a topic the past 3 or
4 days is drifting toward the Colorado/Kansas border to promote decent upper
deck diffluence. With the attendant surface low still situated
over eastern Kansas inducing modest east-southeast lower-deck flow...deep-layer
shear...both speed and directional...should slowly increase with
30-40kts likely by early this evening. With modest upper-deck cold
advection approaching central & south-central Kansas large hail
perhaps 2 inches in diameter...would be the primary threat. Most
facets of inherited forecast are kept intact. Late tonight the
upper-deck low over eastern Colorado will evolve into a wave as it
phases with a 2nd upper-deck wave sweeping east across the
Saskatchewan/Manitoba border. Both will team to sweep a cold front
southeast that should extend from central Nebraska and western Kansas
early Sunday morning.

Sunday & Sunday night:
the southeast progress of the cold front will be watched closely.
As the 2 upper waves phase the southern cohort would weaken. This
would likely cause the cold front to decellerate as it approaches
southeast Kansas early Sunday afternoon. The NAM depicts this scenario
more so than it's cohorts and is being followed. As such the air
mass over southeast Kansas would destabilize considerably. As such
severe thunderstorm for southeast Kansas would increase considerably
& with the NAM preferred MLCAPES from 2,000-2,300 "carat jewels"
are likely early Sunday afternoon. Combined with modest upper-deck
cold advection targeting this area large hail...perhaps Golf Ball
sized...would be the primary threat Sunday afternoon. As the cold
front pushes southeast of this area deep brisk northwest flow spreads southeast across
Kansas thereby shunting the severe threat S-southeast of kict country early
Sunday evening.

Monday-tuesday:
the work-week should start quietly as an intense middle-upper cyclone
begins to gyrate over the Great Lakes per GFS & European model (ecmwf). This would
drive large bu weak high pressure east/southeast across the central &
Southern Plains.

Long term...(wednesday through saturday)
issued at 358 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

Thunderstorms should return to the neighborhood Wednesday & Wednesday night
but with differences in solutions have kept forecast essentially
unchanged.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1201 am CDT sun Apr 19 2015

Mesoscale complex of thunderstorms over S-central Kansas/Flint Hills
should continue progressing slowly eastward overnight. Thunderstorms and rain will
affect ict in the first couple hours of taf valid period...and the
cnu terminal overnight. Variable winds will follow in its wake for
several hours overnight across central/south central Kansas. MVFR
visibilities possible in light fog early Sunday morning in central/south
central Kansas.

Additional showers/T-storms will move southeastward across much of
eastern Kansas Sunday afternoon...with winds shifting to gusty
northwesterly.

Jmc

&&

Fire weather...
issued at 358 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

Prolonged periods of rain & thunderstorms will keep the grassland
fire in check.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 40 62 40 67 / 10 0 10 10
Hutchinson 39 62 39 68 / 10 0 10 10
Newton 40 60 39 65 / 10 0 10 10
Eldorado 42 62 40 66 / 10 0 10 10
Winfield-kwld 41 63 41 66 / 10 0 10 10
Russell 37 61 36 68 / 10 0 10 10
Great Bend 36 60 37 68 / 10 0 10 10
Salina 39 62 37 67 / 10 0 10 10
McPherson 39 61 38 66 / 10 0 10 10
Coffeyville 43 64 42 66 / 20 10 10 10
Chanute 43 63 40 65 / 20 10 10 10
Iola 43 62 40 64 / 20 10 0 10
Parsons-kppf 43 63 41 66 / 20 10 10 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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