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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1139 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

..updated for 06z aviation discussion...

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

While moderate instability exists across the southeast corner of
Kansas...forcing and focus for convection is weak...so will
maintain a dry forecast this evening. Modest elevated warm/moist
advection late tonight may promote isolated convection across
central Kansas a few hours either side of dawn...so will retain
small probability of precipitation there early Sunday morning. Otherwise the main focus
and challenge revolves around the increasing prospects for
episodal deep moist convection Sunday night through Tuesday.
Increasing westerly flow aloft over the western Continental U.S. Will
translate east across the northern/Central Plains and Midwest
through the period. This will be heralded by a lead upper trough
late Sunday followed by a couple of trailing/weaker shortwaves
Monday into Tuesday. A moderate to perhaps very unstable airmass
will develop ahead of the surface dryline and cold front late
Sunday afternoon and evening across central Kansas. Diurnal
surface based convection will likely be suppressed by a Stout
capping inversion until early evening. However the forcing for
ascent should be more than sufficient along the front with deep
layer shear supportive of a severe convective episode Sunday
evening into part of Sunday night. The main challenge will be the
southern extent of this activity due to the aforementioned warm
middle-level temperatures. The best likelihood should remain
along/north of I-70...though mesoscale affects/outflow could
force development further south than indicated by most short term
models. Therefore will retain chances further south into south
central and southeast Kansas Sunday night...though adjust probability of precipitation
down just a bit. While this complex will likely exit stage right
by Monday morning...the surface front is expected to lay out
across south central into eastern Kansas during the day. The
combination of diurnal heating and a trailing shortwave aloft
migrating east across the area should result in renewed convection
by late Monday. Moderate to strong instability and modest shear
could also give rise to another round of severe storms. The quasi-
stationary frontal boundary will remain the focus for convection
Monday night into Tuesday...with potential for heavy rainfall and
at least strong storms.

Darmofal

Long term...(wednesday through saturday)
issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Flow aloft will weaken as geopotential heights rise as the upper
ridge axis builds north toward the area for the end of the week.
The surface front will likewise shift north of the
area...resulting in very warm but dry weather. Differences do
arise by Friday into Saturday as to the potential for a cold
frontal passage and offering of slight cooling. Confidence on this
scenario this far out is shaky at best...so will only trend
temperatures closer to seasonal climatology by Saturday with modest
precipitation chances.

Ked

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1134 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Isolated-widely scattered thunderstorms and rain may develop early Sunday morning
across central Kansas...in area of isentropic lift/moisture transport
ahead of lead shortwave ejecting from rockies. Will utilize thunderstorms in the vicinity
at rsl/sln/hut terminals for this possible activity. Steepening
Lee cyclone over eastern Colorado Sunday...will lead to very gusty
southerly winds area-wide. Gusts of 25-35 knots are likely.
A stronger shortwave trough will eject out across the region
Sunday night...with severe storms expected to develop along cold
front from eastern Nebraska into northwestern Kansas. Other more
isolated storms may form along the Lee trough axis over western
Kansas. Will keep a thunderstorms in the vicinity mention in central Kansas sun evening with higher
probabilities of thunder expected there...and can introduce
further south in later taf issuances if necessary.

Jmc

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 69 96 72 92 / 10 10 30 30
Hutchinson 69 97 71 90 / 10 10 40 20
Newton 69 95 72 90 / 10 10 50 30
Eldorado 69 95 73 92 / 10 10 40 30
Winfield-kwld 70 96 74 93 / 10 10 20 40
Russell 69 97 65 85 / 20 20 60 10
Great Bend 69 97 66 87 / 20 20 50 10
Salina 70 98 68 88 / 20 20 60 20
McPherson 70 97 70 88 / 20 20 50 20
Coffeyville 70 95 74 93 / 10 10 20 40
Chanute 69 94 73 91 / 10 10 30 40
Iola 69 94 73 91 / 10 10 40 40
Parsons-kppf 70 95 74 92 / 10 10 20 40

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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