Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
322 PM CDT Monday Oct 20 2014

Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 315 PM CDT Monday Oct 20 2014

Tonight-Tue:
main focus is timing/amount of moisture return towards daybreak.
Stratus development looks likely...but given gradient of 850mb moisture
and weak warm air advection...would not discount a few sprinkles/
spotty showers. Also good chance of 3-5sm visibility in fog but
dense fog looks less likely. After morning clouds...mild day is
anticipated during the afternoon.

Wednesday-Thu:
moisture increases Wednesday ahead of next shortwave...setting stage
for mainly showers and a few thunderstorms. Precipitation is
expected to move into far west sections on Wednesday during day...all of
the area Wednesday night and then exiting southeast Kansas on Thursday during the
day. Temperatures will remain mild throughout the period.

Long term...(friday through monday)
issued at 315 PM CDT Monday Oct 20 2014

Long wave pattern continue to show ridge building over central US
Fri-Sat...with frontal passage on sun and trough moving into
sun/Mon. Once again...ECMWF/GFS showing considerable differences
in the pattern transition on sun/Mon. Temperatures will remain
mild ahead of front. Considerable differences in timing between
GFS/European model (ecmwf) on frontal passage and temperatures could go either way.
If warmer temperatures verify per European model (ecmwf)...maxes could make the
lower 80s on Monday across much of south central/southeast Kansas.
However cooler solutions are suggesting maxes only in the upper
50s/near 60. -Howerton

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1232 PM CDT Monday Oct 20 2014

VFR conditions expected for at least the next 18 hours...as a weak
surface trough dissipates as it moves across the area. As this
trough washes out...expect a gradual wind shift back to the east and
eventually southeast as the overnight progresses.

As low level flow returns to the southeast-S over the Southern Plains. Low
level moisture return will gradually increase...especially over
south central and central Kansas by Tuesday am. Operational short term
models suggest low level moisture will increase enough for some
possible MVFR visibilities of 3-5sm and ceilings around 2000 above ground level developing
near the kict and possibly khut/krsl taf sites by around
12-14z/Tue. So will include this mention for kict for now. Not
entirely out of the question that fog or ceilings could go IFR or
LIFR...similar to what happened this morning near khut but will let
later shifts look at this closer.

Ketcham



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 51 75 58 77 / 0 10 10 10
Hutchinson 49 74 57 77 / 0 10 10 20
Newton 50 73 57 76 / 0 10 0 10
Eldorado 50 74 56 77 / 0 10 0 10
Winfield-kwld 53 74 58 77 / 0 10 10 10
Russell 48 73 58 77 / 0 10 0 40
Great Bend 48 73 58 77 / 0 10 0 30
Salina 47 73 57 77 / 0 0 0 20
McPherson 49 73 57 77 / 0 10 0 20
Coffeyville 50 73 54 72 / 10 10 0 10
Chanute 48 71 52 69 / 0 10 0 10
Iola 48 70 51 68 / 0 0 0 10
Parsons-kppf 49 72 53 71 / 0 10 0 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations