Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1130 PM CST Thursday Nov 20 2014

..updated for 06z aviation discussion...

Update...
issued at 1130 PM CST Thursday Nov 20 2014

Rest of tonight:
temperature/dew point differentials across the neighborhood remain
8-13f in nearly all areas and with moisture advection extremely
limited at 11 PM. Low clouds have developed over parts of eastern
OK and Arkansas and are migrating v-E-r-y S-l-o-W-l-y north. RUC & hrrr
soundings depict a later arrival of stratus into south-central and
southeast Kansas until around 5 am. As such have updated all forecasts
to delay the arrival of any drizzle until around 5 am. The potential
for light freezing drizzle is likewise diminishing (certainly through
6 am). Remainder of inherited forecast is unchanged.

&&

Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 345 PM CST Thursday Nov 20 2014

Light freezing drizzle remains a concern during the overnight hours
as low level moisture is drawn up from central/eastern Oklahoma. As
far as timing GOES, it appears the onset of drizzle will be 08-10z
time frame along/south of Kingman-Wichita-Chanute line. The northern
edge of the drizzle, as it moves north during this time frame, will
begin to move into areas where surface temperature will be anywhere
from 28 to 31f. This will undoubtedly cause a very light glaze on
exposed surfaces and untreated roads/sidewalks. As the area of light
drizzle expands northward to a Great Bend-McPherson-Emporia line,
the 32f surface line will also shift north as surface warm advection
begins to increase. After daybreak (indirect) insolation will allow
temperatures to increase to the middle 30s just about everywhere
including farther north across central Kansas. The official forecast
calls for plain drizzle especially after 15z except for perhaps the
I-70 corridor where it may remain at or below 32f through 16 or even
17z. It will be difficult for any freezing drizzle to reach as far
northwest as Russell, but we will also include some patchy freezing
drizzle given remaining placement uncertainties. For the remainder
of the day, areas of drizzle will continue primarily east of Kingman
to Salina line, and the drizzle/low stratus will result in
temperatures only slowly rising to a high of upper 30s for much of
central Kansas. The exception will be southeast Kansas where temperatures
will likely rise to the middle to upper 40s closer to the surface warm
sector. Some showers were added to the grids in addition to the
drizzle across southeast Kansas as high resolution models are
suggesting some convective quantitative precipitation forecast developing in the greatest zone of
low level moist advection Friday.

Umscheid

Long term...(monday through thursday)
issued at 345 PM CST Thursday Nov 20 2014

The low level moist plume will remain across southeast Kansas
through Sunday as the shortwave trough begins to lift northeast
through the Ozarks. A deformation zone at 700mb is suggested to clip
southeast Kansas, and this is where probability of precipitation will remain highest
Saturday night into Sunday. The warming lower troposphere will
result in all precipitation being in the form of rain. A fairly
strong frontal passage is expected Sunday with northwest winds in
the wake of this storm system at about 25 to 30 miles per hour during the day.
The airmass behind this wave will not be of Arctic origin, however,
so temperatures Sunday through Tuesday of next week will be fairly
seasonal for late November.

Umscheid

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1130 PM CST Thursday Nov 20 2014

With wide temperature/dewpoint differentials plus short-term model soundings
indicating stratus not reaching SC & southeast Kansas until ~12z have delayed
onset of IFR ceilings until closer to daybreak. Once these terminals
deteriorate to IFR/LIFR status they will remain socked in through
21/06z & likely beyond. The -fzdz potential is however diminishing
for the rest of the tonight.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 31 41 38 55 / 20 30 20 40
Hutchinson 28 38 36 54 / 10 20 10 20
Newton 29 40 37 52 / 20 30 20 30
Eldorado 31 41 39 55 / 20 30 30 40
Winfield-kwld 34 45 42 56 / 20 30 30 50
Russell 26 42 31 53 / 0 10 10 10
Great Bend 27 42 32 54 / 0 10 10 10
Salina 26 40 34 53 / 10 20 10 20
McPherson 28 40 35 53 / 10 20 10 20
Coffeyville 35 51 46 57 / 20 40 40 60
Chanute 32 46 44 55 / 20 40 40 60
Iola 30 44 43 54 / 20 40 40 60
Parsons-kppf 33 49 45 56 / 20 40 40 60

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations