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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1226 PM CDT sun Aug 30 2015

..updated for 18z aviation discussion...

Short term...(today through tuesday)
issued at 352 am CDT sun Aug 30 2015

Today-tonight:
radiational fog/stratus has prompted a dense fog advisory for
much of the area. Visibilities continue to tumble across the
area...with the worst of the fog expected in a broad swath from
roughly khut to Cottonwood Falls. Expect broken ceilings well
into the afternoon...so temperatures will be slow to climb. Have
backed off on maxes once again...but could see them going either
way given how much models have struggled with low level moisture.
In absence of convection yesterday in southeast Kansas...opted to keep
forecast dry today/tonight. This despite impressive 850mb
dewpoints and proximity of upper circulation. Convection that did
occur just outside the forecast area yesterday seemed to be
anchored to 500mb trough. Some potential for fog again Sunday night...
but plan to let day shift diagnose that closer.

Monday-Tue:
advertised ridging still looks good this period. Models struggling
once again with timing/location of middle level baroclinic zone and
resulting threat of elevated precipitation. Inherited forecast was
nearly dry...and trimmed back a bit more given uncertainty and
latest model runs. Warmer temperatures still appear on
track. -Howerton

Long term...(wednesday through saturday)
issued at 352 am CDT sun Aug 30 2015

Decent model agreement so made only minor tweaks to going
forecast. Precipitation chances look slim given faster flow aloft
remains northwest of the area. Based on pattern verification...
temperatures look to be slightly warmer than initialization grids.
-Howerton

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1225 PM CDT sun Aug 30 2015

A few areas of MVFR ceilings remain however VFR is expected to return
as we move through the afternoon hours. There is some concern that
patchy MVFR visibility/ceilings may return after midnight across the area with
light southeast winds and a relatively moist planetary boundary layer.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 86 66 94 70 / 10 0 10 10
Hutchinson 86 64 94 69 / 0 0 10 10
Newton 85 65 93 68 / 10 10 10 10
Eldorado 85 65 92 69 / 10 10 10 10
Winfield-kwld 86 66 94 70 / 10 0 10 10
Russell 89 63 98 69 / 0 0 10 10
Great Bend 88 63 97 69 / 0 0 10 10
Salina 85 65 94 69 / 0 0 10 10
McPherson 86 64 93 68 / 0 0 10 10
Coffeyville 86 68 90 70 / 10 10 10 10
Chanute 85 67 90 70 / 10 10 10 10
Iola 84 67 89 69 / 10 10 10 10
Parsons-kppf 86 68 90 70 / 10 10 10 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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