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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
642 PM CDT Friday Aug 1 2014

..updated for 00z aviation discussion...

Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 300 PM CDT Friday Aug 1 2014

Loop of surface observations and visible satellite data ending at
1935z shows a mesoscale-low in southeast Nebraska that is retrograding
to the west slowly. The trough associated with this extends into
eastern Kansas and manifests itself with some additional cumulus
clouds. To the east of this feature...another advancing surface
trough extends into central Missouri and then into Illinois.
Scattered thunderstorms are associated with this feature.

The upper level flow pattern remains with a trough in the east
and a ridge in the western United States. This pattern continues
to keep the region below normal in temperatures and precipitation.

In the short term through Monday...there really is no significant
change in the forecast. Weak disturbances continue to move through
the mean flow. Some of these may pass close enough to bring a few
storms to eastern Kansas. The predictability with these is quite
low. Best chance is Sunday.

Cook

Long term...(tuesday through friday)
issued at 300 PM CDT Friday Aug 1 2014

The ridge/trough pattern that we have had does begin to flatten
some by the middle of the week. This along with southerly surface
winds during the middle and latter portion of the week should push
temperatures more toward normal levels in the lower 90s...with
lows near 70s.

These southerly winds will also bring more moisture and
subsequent thunderstorm activity to the region during the middle
of the week. Really too early to pin down any specific timing and
location to storms. It does appear that some of these could be
strong at this time...but no strong signal that would indicate a
widespread outbreak of severe weather looking at the shear
buoyancy combinations.

Cook

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 641 PM CDT Friday Aug 1 2014

Weak surface trough will straddle roughly the Kansas Turnpike corridor
for a few hours this evening...eventually retrograding back
westward overnight. Consequently...thinking north winds at ict
will eventually turn southeasterly this evening. Also...cannot
rule out an isolated shower in the vicinity of ict through about
02z...but coverage will likely be too sparse to warrant vcsh.
Later tonight through early Saturday morning...thinking another
round of patchy MVFR/IFR visibilities are possible over mainly southeast
Kansas...although brief lower visibilities are possible as far northwest as
ict-hut-sln.

Adk

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 66 88 66 90 / 10 0 10 10
Hutchinson 63 88 65 91 / 10 10 0 10
Newton 65 87 65 89 / 10 10 0 10
Eldorado 66 87 65 90 / 10 10 10 10
Winfield-kwld 67 88 66 90 / 10 0 10 10
Russell 61 89 65 92 / 10 0 10 0
Great Bend 61 88 64 91 / 10 0 0 0
Salina 63 89 65 92 / 10 10 10 10
McPherson 63 88 65 91 / 10 10 0 10
Coffeyville 65 88 66 89 / 10 10 10 10
Chanute 64 86 65 89 / 10 10 10 10
Iola 63 86 64 89 / 10 10 10 10
Parsons-kppf 65 87 65 89 / 10 10 10 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...none.

&&

$$

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