Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Huntsville Alabama
1244 am CDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015
for 06z tafs
/issued 841 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 30 2015/
cloud cover and smoke from wildfires in Canada helped to keep
temperatures a few degrees cooler today than Monday and values
running about 5-6 below yesterday at 01z. We remain under northwest
flow tonight and we should continue to have smoke stream into the
area. In addition to this...clouds and storms associated with the next
shortwave currently located across Iowa/northern Missouri are
expected to arrive near sunrise per latest hires guidance.
Thus...have nudged temperatures down a few degrees based on current trends
as well as increasing cloud cover. The plume of smoke and incoming
cirrus clouds should keep US under mostly cloudy/hazy skies tonight.
Latest surface observation and satellite imagery do suggest that a few weak
boundaries exist around the region and these could allow for a very
isolated storm to develop overnight. However...believe the best
chances to see any storms will occur near sunrise as the shortwave
in mid-west/Central Plains approaches the area from the northwest.
The rest of the forecast is in good shape and no other changes are
for 06z tafs...
VFR conditions expected through 10-11z tonight. Forecast models and
soundings indicate a few/scattered cloud deck a0a 2kft developing with the
possibility for some haze/patchy fog. These conditions should
continue through 14-15z and then lift to VFR. A low pressure system
in the Central Plains/Midwest region will move into the area and
there is a chance for thunderstorms at both terminals Wednesday. Have
kept the mention of vcsh/thunderstorms and rain through the taf period.
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