Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville Alabama
849 PM CDT Thursday Jul 24 2014
a nice evening is underway across the Tennessee Valley, with clear
skies and light northerly winds in place. Dewpoints have fallen into
the Lower/Middle 60s in a few spots, with drier air noted upstream on
the Tennessee/Kentucky border with dewpoints in the middle 50s. With an upper
ridge to our west over the central Continental U.S. And a departing upper low
in the eastern Canadian provinces, northwest flow aloft will continue to advect
this drier air into the County warning forecast area overnight.
As such, not much change was necessary with the evening update.
Hourly weather elements were on track with observational trends, with only
slight changes needed to the sky/pop grids for tonight (clear/mostly
clear skies and probability of precipitation decreased to zero). Otherwise, the only forecast
conundrum tonight centers around the potential for fog development
overnight. Inherited patchy fog in the grids from the dayshift, and
it will honestly be a battle between the lingering moisture in place
and the drier air advecting into the area from the north. Am fairly
confident that fog won't be as widespread (nor as dense) as last
night, so will retain the patchy fog mention for now (and will update
the forecast later tonight if necessary).
Updated zones already sent.
/issued 711 PM CDT Thursday Jul 24 2014/
for 00z tafs...
clear skies and VFR conds will prevail for a majority of the taf
period. Fog will develop at both sites overnight, but how widespread
the coverage is (and the density of the fog) is up for debate. Drier
air is advecting into the area from the north, but lingering moisture
will likely be enough to produce at least patchy fog tonight. For
now, will include a tempo MVFR group around daybreak for this
occurrence and reassess the threat with the 06z issuance. Once the
fog dissipates a couple of hours after sunrise, VFR conds and light
northerly winds will prevail until this time tomorrow.
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