Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Huntsville Alabama
1038 am CST Tuesday Dec 1 2015
Update...to tweak probability of precipitation and temperatures.
two to four inches of rainfall has fallen over the past few days
across much of northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. This
has all been courtesy of a slow moving frontal boundary that stretches
from near Nashville southwest into western Madison County into north
central Mississippi. 12z upper air analysis depicts the 850 mb front
still back over eastern Arkansas NE Louisiana. Until this pushes
through...drier air in the low levels of the atmosphere will likely
not dry out.
Since model guidance depicts decent isentropic lift all day over the
region...additional rainfall is expected to continue today. The 850 mb
front doesn't push through until after midnight on Tuesday in most
of short range models. This looks reasonable. Thus keeping high probability of precipitation
80-100 percent for most of the area through the day. The exception
being northwest Alabama...where model hint at some gradient depicting lower
probability of precipitation concerning rainfall. Otherwise no other changes made to the
forecast. At this point it looks like and additional one half to around
one inch of rain is possible today. Remember...a Flood Watch remain
in effect through early Wednesday morning.
/issued 514 am CST Tuesday Dec 1 2015/
for 12z tafs...a slow moving cold front...now entering northwest Alabama...will move
across the Tennessee Valley by tonight. This slow moving cold front will keep
the chance of rain across the taf sites through much of the forecast period.
The rain will begin to taper off around 12z Wednesday morning. Otherwise
expect mainly IFR conditions with occasional MVFR conditions for the
next 24 hours.
Alabama...Flood Watch through late tonight for alz006-008>010.
Tennessee...Flood Watch through late tonight for tnz076-096-097.
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