Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Huntsville Alabama
627 am CDT Sat may 25 2013
Update...
for 12z tafs
&&
Discussion...
/issued 310 am CDT Sat may 25 2013/
the latest 08z surface analysis and infrared satellite imagery indicated
that a large ridge of high pressure at surface and aloft was across
the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valley region. Temperatures were in the middle 40s
at some locations to around 50 degrees. Some high clouds were
spilling over top of the middle level ridge into the region at 08z. The
back edge of the surface ridge was extending south from southeast
Missouri...to central Arkansas. Expect mostly sunny conditions today
with a decent warming trend...as temperatures should warm to around 80
degrees this afternoon.
The models hold the upper ridge firmly in control of our weather here
in the Tennessee Valley region through middle week with an increasing
low level southerly flow with time. The lack of a focusing mechanism
in the weak northwest flow has led ME to stick with a dry forecast
into the extended time periods. The GFS hints at a weak short wave
making it far enough southward by Monday evening to give at least
southern middle Tennessee a slight chance of showers. Have left this
scenario in the going forecast. A dry forecast is further expected
through the end of the upcoming week...with the upper ridge holding
firm across the region.
The GFS and European model (ecmwf) models attempt to move an upper level low through
the central Rocky Mountain states by Thursday and into the northern
plains by Friday. A surface cold front will attempt to drop southeast
through the Central Plains into the lower Ohio Valley by Saturday...
with increasing clouds noted. Will not introduce precipitation chances at
this time on Saturday...as the European model (ecmwf) model weakens this storm system
quite a bit...compared to the GFS model. Have followed a general
compromise between the GFS and European model (ecmwf) models involving forecast temperatures
through the extended forecast time periods.
Tt
&&
Aviation...
for 12z tafs...VFR conditions will persist through the period. Winds
shift through the afternoon to become generally out of the
southeast...remaining near or below 5kts.
Ccc
&&
Hun watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Tennessee...none.
&&
$$
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