Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Huntsville Alabama
631 am CDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014
for 12z tafs
/issued 501 am CDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014/
mainly high clouds have been moving across the Tennessee Valley overnight with
fog dropping visible down to 1/2 mile in a few locations. The upper
level ridge will build in over the region today while the large
trough expands across the western half of the country.
With the ridge axis across the area today...pleasant conditions are
expected again today with temperatures in the upper 80s and mostly clear
skies. Normal temperatures for this time are 80 for hsv and 79 for msl!
Clouds will begin to return tonight as low level moisture returns.
Will see precipitable waters +1 inch. These values will continue to increase
Thursday...~1.5 inches...as the ridge moves east and upper level
moisture also increases. The trough digs into the Southern Plains
Thursday evening. With a pre frontal trough possible ahead of the
front kept in the chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon/evening mainly for locations west of I-65.
Vorticity maximum looks to be the strongest to our west-northwest late Thursday night and
continues to stretch as it moves through the Tennessee Valley. Models are
still showing the low level jet to be 35-40kts and 0-6km shear 30-40kts as
well. Cape is present along the front...+1000 j/kg. Precipitation will
diminish from west to east as lower dew points move in Friday aftn/evening.
Friday and Friday night will be the first cool down after the front.
But Saturday should really feel like fall. High temperatures in the middle 60s
and breezy northwesterly flow as the surface gradient tightens due to the
surface high building in from the west. Lows could be below seasonable in
the 40s...but dont worry...they will rebound on Sunday back to
normal. There is another chance of precipitation on Monday as the surface high
moves east and a weak front moves towards the Tennessee Valley. Extended the
precipitation chance into Monday afternoon for the eastern zones to account for
trough axis moving through.
for 12z tafs... patchy fog along the Tennessee River will produce brief MVFR
conditions through 14z at kmsl and khsv before dissipating. VFR
conditions are expected during the rest of the forecast period. Diurnal
cumulus based ~050agl should dissipate early this evening with light
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