Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Huntsville Alabama
1120 am CDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014
this morning the upper MS valley had a broad amplitude trough while
the southeast had a surface high overhead. A shortwave moving through
the Kansas/OK/MO/AR area was producing an mesoscale convective system with an associated outflow
boundary ahead of it. This outflow boundary will be the main focus of
Clouds head of the mesoscale convective system will slide into the Tennessee Valley today...and
along with daytime cumulus development...increased our cloud cover today.
Increased cloud cover a little further for this morning and afternoon
based on current satellite trends. Temperatures were quick to rise thus far
today ahead of the cloud cover and approaching boundary...allowing
for potential showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Increased the
probability of precipitation for based on current trends and the increased support. For this
afternoon...cape values could reach 2500 j/kg and precipitable waters are over 1.5
inches again today due to the low level SW winds still around allow
some moisture transport to continue into the region. With the
afternoon heating...boundary interaction and the approaching short
wave...could see showers and thunderstorms this afternoon linger into
this evening as the system moves across the area.
Slightly adjusted the dewpoints for current trends otherwise temperatures
will reach into the lower 90s today continuing the warm start to the
beginning of September.
/issued 645 am CDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014/
for 12z tafs...
VFR conditions are forecast for the period. However...strong
daytime heating and increased instability will be favorable for
isolated convection this afternoon. The approach of an upper level
system and lower level boundary interactions will bring better
shower and thunderstorm chances this evening. Briefly reduced
visible/ceiling and gusty winds will accompany convection.
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