Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville Alabama
309 am CST Sat Jan 31 2015
looks like a tricky forecast coming up for the end of the weekend and
perhaps again by next Thursday with the possibility of some wintry weather.
Otherwise the next weather maker for the Tennessee Valley is a deep trough now
over the southwestern US. Closer to home temperatures were ranging from 25 to 30
under mostly clear skies (sct ci). Today should be a fairly nice day
with temperatures in the lower 50s and increasing clouds. Removed the
mention of rain for tonight since all models were showing it dry
across the County Warning Area. However Sunday looks like a rainy day as a surface low
moves across MO/Illinois and into the Ohio Valley...dragging a cold front with
it. This cold front will move across the Tennessee Valley beginning Sunday
evening around 03z over northwest Alabama and through the County Warning Area by 09z. Would not be
surprised if there were a few rumbles of thunder Sunday afternoon/evening
due to 800 mb winds up to 50 kts and some very weak convective available potential energy. For now will
not mention any thunder for Sunday.
After midnight Sunday/early Monday morning is where the wintry mix may
be possible...especially between 09z and 12z. This timeframe is when
the cold air really starts to move across the County Warning Area. Thus will keep a
snow/rain mix between 09z and 12z. After 12z Monday morning model soundings
all show that it should be cold enough for snow...however as usual
moisture looks iffy. For now will keep flurries across the County Warning Area
between 12z and 18z on Monday. After 18z will end the chance of precipitation as
drier air continues to move across the Tennessee Valley. At this time expecting
little or no accumulations due to a warm ground...timing of the cold
air and how much moisture is left across the County Warning Area.
Monday afternoon through Tuesday will be cool but dry thanks to high
pressure building across the region.
Wednesday/Thursday...another tricky spot in the forecast as an upper
trough/cold front is prognosticated to affect the Tennessee Valley. However GFS is much
more bullish with precipitation than the European model (ecmwf) which is showing no precipitation at all
for the Tennessee Valley. Also to makes matters worst...GFS shows enough
cold air for the rain to turn to snow by Thursday night. For now will
keep a low pop in for snow Thursday night. However it is too early
for any accumulations if we get any at all.
Will keep Friday dry but cold...lows in the 20s and highs in the
40s...a blend of GFS and European model (ecmwf).
/issued 1045 PM CST Friday Jan 30 2015/
for 06z tafs...VFR conds are xpcted through the period. High clouds
will begin to stream back into the region from the west overnight and
into the morning hours.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Huntsville 53 40 54 32 / 0 10 100 80
Shoals 54 41 55 31 / 0 10 100 80
Vinemont 53 40 54 32 / 0 10 100 80
Fayetteville 52 38 53 30 / 0 10 100 80
Albertville 53 40 54 34 / 0 10 100 80
Fort Payne 52 38 53 33 / 0 10 100 80
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