Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Huntsville Alabama
619 am CDT Friday Mar 14 2014
for 12z tafs
/issued 419 am CDT Friday Mar 14 2014/
went with a blend of NAM/ECMWF/GFS but will lean more towards the
GFS for this forecast package. Surface high was centered over Georgia/SC which
has allowed winds to become southeast mainly west of i65. As a result a Big
Range in temperatures with low 30s in NE Alabama to around 40 in northwest Alabama.
Expect mostly sunny skies this morning with increasing clouds by the
afternoon as a cold front...now over the upper Midwest...approaches the Tennessee
Valley. Models soundings/time sections look too dry for any precipitation
today/tonight. By Saturday the cold front will likely stall out along the
Tennessee/Kentucky border and it still looks too dry Saturday morning for any
significant precipitation. However by Saturday night and into Sunday morning
model soundings becomes saturated as a surface low/upper wave heads
towards the Tennessee Valley. This is the period for the best timing of
By Sunday afternoon the surface low/upper wave will move across the County Warning Area along
with a possible small dry slot. Instabilities do increase enough for
a few thunderstorms and rain with convective available potential energy around 200/800 mb winds 40 knots. However since low
level shear is very weak not expecting any severe weather...just gusty winds
and localized heavy rain. As the low moves NE of the County Warning Area Sunday
night...it will drag a cold front across the Tennessee Valley...as the chance of
rain showers tapers off. Total rainfall by early Monday morning will be between
1 and 2 inches.
Added slight chance of rain for Monday morning...as an upper low moves
across southern Alabama and into southern Georgia. At this time it looks like most if not all of
the precipitation will stay south of the County Warning Area...as drier air moves across the
Tennessee Valley behind the cold front. Kept Monday night and all of Tuesday dry
due to a ridge of high pressure across the area.
A strong closed upper low will move well north of the Tennessee Valley on
Wednesday. This upper low will drag a weak cold front across the Tennessee Valley
but with limited moisture and a surface high building across the southeastern
US...the chance of widespread precipitation looks iffy at this time. However will include
a low pop for rain showers for Wednesday mrng/aftn.
Thursday/Friday...will keep dry thanks to a large surface high across the
for 12z tafs...
VFR conds are expected through the taf period at both kmsl/khsv. Low level wind shear
will be an issue through middle-morning before mixing ensues, so will
formally include ws020/18030kt through this time. Southerly winds
will strengthen through the day today, gusting up to 20kts at times,
but will relax overnight as a surface high shifts east of the region.
Middle/high clouds will generally increase at both kmsl/khsv through
the taf period, with a broken low deck at or below 5kft expected by this time
tomorrow as a cold front approaches the area from the west.
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