Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville Alabama
253 PM CDT sun Mar 29 2015
clouds will continue to increase tonight ahead of an upper
trof/cdfnt. At this time the cold front extended from a surface low over northern Texas
through northwest MO and into the upper Midwest. The tricky part is what to do
with probability of precipitation this evening. All models are showing the best chance of precipitation
over my County Warning Area will be around/after midnight. Thus will go with a low pop
for my western zones between 00z and 06z. Not a lot of instability
tonight but model soundings do show some elevated thunderstorms and rain may be
possible...aided by a 50kt 800 mb jet. Thus not expecting any severe weather
overnight...only some gusty winds/small hail. Time sections are only
showing a narrow band of moisture between 06z and 12z...but still may
see some brief heavy rain in a few locations.
The cold front should be pushing out of the County Warning Area around 12z Monday with only
some lingering -shra for the morning hours. The sun should come out by
Monday afternoon with clear skies Monday night as a weak high builds over
Tuesday...would not be surprised if most of this period will be dry.
However due to return flow may have some warm air advection precipitation especially by the
aftn/evening. Will maintain current low probability of precipitation.
Wednesday through Thursday...looks like a couple of weak waves may move
across our County Warning Area. Timing of these waves...as they move across the area
..is still fairly tricky this far out in the forecast. At this time the blended
models are broad brushing this period with chance probability of precipitation.
Friday...GFS shows a stalled cold front over Kentucky/Tennessee by 12z. By Friday night
a surface low is prognosticated to ride along the cold front which will drag the
cold front through the Tennessee Valley by Saturday morning as it moves east.
Saturday/Sunday...except for some scattered -shra Saturday morning...skies
should clear out by Saturday afternoon with dry conditions for the rest of
the weekend along with a little cooler temperatures.
/issued 1227 PM CDT sun Mar 29 2015/
for 18z tafs...2-3kft ceilings are moving from the west and should be at
kmsl by 18z and khsv at 19z or shortly after. Once these clouds move
out...another area of low-middle clouds will move in from the northwest. There
is a chance there will be a break in the clouds between these two
systems and included an extra group to bring clouds up to scattered
briefly. There is low confidence in this solution so amendments may
be needed tonight. An occasional gust of 15-20kt may be possible this
afternoon but will not be frequent enough to mention in the tafs. A
cold front will move through in the morning with a quick burst of
rain between about 07-15z. There is a slight chance of thunder
tonight as well but too isolated to mention. Ceilings will drop during
this time to below 2kft but skies should quickly clear after 15z.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Huntsville 48 66 41 72 / 80 30 10 30
Shoals 49 67 42 73 / 80 20 10 30
Vinemont 48 67 41 72 / 80 30 10 30
Fayetteville 46 64 39 70 / 80 20 10 30
Albertville 49 65 40 70 / 80 40 10 30
Fort Payne 47 65 40 71 / 80 30 10 30
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