Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Huntsville Alabama
806 PM CDT sun Mar 16 2014
Update...for minor adjustment to probability of precipitation and to update for current
frontal passage timing.
early evening surface analysis showed a broad low centered across
far NE MS/northwest Alabama. A complex frontal structure was noted in the surface
observations...wind field...and satellite imagery this evening. North
of the surface low a slow advancing cold front separated very cold
air across the northern Tennessee Valley/Ohio Valley from somewhat unstable air
across portions of Alabama. Another front was oriented along the
MS/Alabama border southward through the eastern portions of la.
The aforementioned cold front continues to make slow progress
sinking southward across the area this evening. Scattered showers
were noted from Huntsville to Double Springs and points east...or
just along/east of the surface front. Laps analysis shows a narrow
corridor of cape...mainly along the I-59 corridor and one cell in
Blount County earlier produced small hail. Expect the thunder threat
to shift east over the next couple of hours...but light rain/drizzle
to linger overnight as low level inversion sets up and ceilings
remains at or blow 800 feet. Not expecting significant quantitative precipitation forecast however as
general motion is downglide after midnight.
Current temperatures range from 43 near Wright (lauderdale county) to middle
60s near Smith Lake. Min temperatures overnight will be tricky and will
obviously be a function of the frontal position and southward push of
the colder airmass behind it. Current mins depict the general
(expected) gradient fairly well and don't anticipate making
significant changes based on current trends.
Update will be issued shortly to update grids based on current
frontal position and for minor tweaks to probability of precipitation for the overnight
/issued 617 PM CDT sun Mar 16 2014/
for 00z tafs...
a cold front was stretched across northwest Alabama early this
evening and will continue to push across both terminals over the next
several hours. This will bring a period of unsettled weather...
with light precipitation (rain showers and drizzle) anticipated
through the overnight hours. There remains a small risk of thunder at
khsv through 01z but kept out of tafs for now. Ceilings will also lower
to MVFR and eventually IFR category this evening and remain below
1kft through middle morning on Monday. Visibilities may also be reduced at
times overnight due to mist/drizzle. Conditions will improve only
slowly on Monday as low level moisture associated with the frontal
boundary lingers over the area.
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