Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Huntsville Alabama
911 PM CST Wednesday Dec 17 2014
an 500 mb shortwave traversing the Central Plains is responsible for an
area of showers across much of the State of Arkansas this evening,
with a mixed bag of precipitation noted on metars in that area. Rain is
falling across the southern half of the state, with freezing rain and
snow falling across the northern half. All of this activity is moving
to the east/NE, and will affect our area very late tonight into the
first half of the day tomorrow. Thankfully, our temperatures will be
several degrees warmer than that to our west, so we're expecting
precipitation of the liquid variety in our County warning forecast area.
Will retain the 20-probability of precipitation in the west between 6-12z, with the thinking
that northwestern areas may get clipped by the light rain. The only areas of
concern for the early morning hours will be our southern middle Tennessee
counties. The latest hrrr shows some of this precipitation making it into
the area ~12z, and at that time, temperatures in these locations will
be at/slightly below freezing, which would lead to a brief window of
freezing rain. While this is not the likely scenario, it will be
monitored overnight to assess trends. It will not be formally added
to the forecast with this update.
In fact, the only adjustments to the forecast for overnight were to
decrease morning lows a couple of degrees, making for temperatures between
33-34f areawide. Temperatures across the area were a few degrees cooler on
the hourly trends, and the latest guidance supported lows between
33-34f, so adjustments were made. Otherwise, all other weather elements
were in great shape and no other changes were necessary.
Updated products will be sent shortly.
/issued 606 PM CST Wednesday Dec 17 2014/
for 00z tafs...
a mix of high and low clouds will prevail for much of the overnight
hours, with showers arriving within a few hours of daybreak. Showers
will linger in the vicinity through sunset before dissipating, with
broken/overcast middle-level clouds around 9-10kft.
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