Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville Alabama
648 am CDT Friday Jul 31 2015
for 12z tafs
/issued 207 am CDT Friday Jul 31 2015/
the 07z surface analysis indicated that a broad area of high pressure
was ridging southeast into the forecast area from the Central Plains
through the lower Ohio Valley. Temperatures were cooling overnight to more
comfortable numbers in the 65 to 70 degree range.
The short term models indicated that the ridge axis at the surface
through middle levels will remain anchored over the region through
Sunday with only slightly above normal temperatures and abundant sunshine
expected. Have gone with a temperature compromise through this time frame.
The GFS and European model (ecmwf) models finally slide the surface-middle level ridge
axis more east toward the middle Atlantic coast between Monday and
Tuesday. By Wednesday...a weak frontal boundary is prognosticated by the
models to move into the lower Ohio Valley. There will be a slow
increase in low level moisture as evidenced by precipitable water values and have
kept in a slight chance to chance of rain showers/thunderstorms and rain through the rest of
the extended forecast time period as the weakening frontal boundary
settles into the forecast area. Have followed closer to European model (ecmwf) model
temperature guidance through the extended forecast.
for 12z tafs...
surface high pressure located over the Central Plains will keep winds
out of the north/NE and VFR conditions at both terminals through the taf
period. The latest runs of the hrrr/rap guidance all indicate wind
gusts up to 20kts developing around 17/18z and continuing through the
00z time frame. Winds then lower to around 5kts out of the north/NE this
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