Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Huntsville Alabama
638 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014
for 00z tafs
/issued 209 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014/
went with a blend of European model (ecmwf) and NAM for this forecast package. Otherwise a
scattered cumulus field was across the Tennessee Valley with temperatures in the low to middle
80s. Dewpoints were mainly around 60. For tonight expect mostly clear
skies and light winds.
The next weather maker is a cold front now extending from northwest Kansas through Iowa and
into the northern Great Lakes. This cold front will bring a chance of scattered
rain showers/thunderstorms and rain across the County Warning Area by Sunday afternoon and early evening. Since low
level flow/800 mb winds will be north...precipitation will be on the light side
due to limited moisture. The best timing of precipitation will around 20z to
03z. No severe weather is expected but a few storms may produce gusty winds
and brief heavy rain. After 06z Sunday night will keep dry as the cold front
pushes out of the Tennessee Valley.
Monday through Friday...ridging will provide for fall like conditions
across the County Warning Area with highs in the low 80s and morning lows in the
middle/upper 50s. Since going with European model (ecmwf) will keep this period dry.
However GFS is more bullish with precipitation as early as Thursday
Will keep precipitation as rain showers on Saturday...since model soundings were
showing little or no instability. However confidence is low with precipitation
on Saturday and would not be surprised if the rain showers activity will
have to be moved back to Sunday...especially if European model (ecmwf) pans out.
for 00z tafs...
VFR conditions...with light southeast winds should continue into the late
night. With longer nights...mostly clear skies...light winds...there
is a risk of MVFR fog/mist affecting the terminals before daybreak
sun am. Clouds otherwise will gradually increase from northwest-southeast during
sun...as a cold front approaches from the north. Chances of showers
are possible late in the taf period...but were not included in this
issuance due to low confidence with shower timing/placement.
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