Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Huntsville Alabama
622 PM CDT sun Mar 29 2015
for 00z tafs
/issued 253 PM CDT sun Mar 29 2015/
clouds will continue to increase tonight ahead of an upper
trof/cdfnt. At this time the cold front extended from a surface low over northern Texas
through northwest MO and into the upper Midwest. The tricky part is what to do
with probability of precipitation this evening. All models are showing the best chance of precipitation
over my County Warning Area will be around/after midnight. Thus will go with a low pop
for my western zones between 00z and 06z. Not a lot of instability
tonight but model soundings do show some elevated thunderstorms and rain may be
possible...aided by a 50kt 800 mb jet. Thus not expecting any severe weather
overnight...only some gusty winds/small hail. Time sections are only
showing a narrow band of moisture between 06z and 12z...but still may
see some brief heavy rain in a few locations.
The cold front should be pushing out of the County Warning Area around 12z Monday with only
some lingering -shra for the morning hours. The sun should come out by
Monday afternoon with clear skies Monday night as a weak high builds over
Tuesday...would not be surprised if most of this period will be dry.
However due to return flow may have some warm air advection precipitation especially by the
aftn/evening. Will maintain current low probability of precipitation.
Wednesday through Thursday...looks like a couple of weak waves may move
across our County Warning Area. Timing of these waves...as they move across the area
..is still fairly tricky this far out in the forecast. At this time the blended
models are broad brushing this period with chance probability of precipitation.
Friday...GFS shows a stalled cold front over Kentucky/Tennessee by 12z. By Friday night
a surface low is prognosticated to ride along the cold front which will drag the
cold front through the Tennessee Valley by Saturday morning as it moves east.
Saturday/Sunday...except for some scattered -shra Saturday morning...skies
should clear out by Saturday afternoon with dry conditions for the rest of
the weekend along with a little cooler temperatures.
for 00z tafs...initial clearing skies are expected to continue at hsv
and mean sea level until around 07z...when MVFR ceilings less than 2kft quickly
move into the terminal sites. Have decided to continue with
predominant 5sm rain showers at both hsv and mean sea level until around 10z to account
for expected activity along and slightly ahead of the cold front. The
prognosticated cold frontal passage is expected to be at mean sea level between 09z-10z
and at hsv by around 10z. Winds should gradually shift around to the
northwest at both sites through the end of the taf period. Will
improve ceilings to the VFR category with sky clear expected by 15z at mean sea level
and 16z at hsv.
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