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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Huntsville Alabama
512 am CST Monday Nov 24 2014

Update...
for 12z tafs

&&

Discussion...
/issued 335 am CST Monday Nov 24 2014/
primary cold front is just about to the MS river...with surface winds
gusting in the 20-25 miles per hour range on either side of the boundary. The
parent low has lifted well into the Ohio Valley region...where most of
the precipitation now resides. Latest model suites continue to move this
area of low pressure quickly northward across the Great Lakes...with the
attendant cold front sweeping through the central Tennessee Valley during the
late morning hours. Cloud cover may be delayed a few hours in scattering
behind the exiting frontal boundary...as an embedded upper shortwave
lifts northeastward across the Midwest/Ohio Valley regions. Surface winds shifting
to the west and gusting near 25 miles per hour this morning should also gradually
diminish to more of a 10-15 miles per hour range this afternoon as a weak ridge
of high pressure out of the Southern Plains takes aim at the middle south
region. Maximum temperatures will also likely occur this morning along/ahead of
the frontal passage...with cooler/drier air filtering into the area
in the wake of the front this afternoon.

The global models are keying on a secondary system embedded within a
longwave trough/northwesterly flow pattern approaching the Tennessee Valley heading
toward middle week. Temperature profiles/critical thickness values would maybe
suggest the possibility of some mixed precipitation Wednesday night. However...it
look likes like most of this energy/moisture will remain just to the
north and east of the local area. As such...the weather for the Thanksgiving
Holiday looks nice...albeit seasonably cool...with overall temperatures
perhaps 5-10f below normal for this time of the yr. The latter half
of the global models are suggesting a stronger surface high out of the
northern plains building southeastward toward the end of the Holiday week...with
relatively quiet and seasonably cool weather xpcted for the local area.

09

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Aviation...
for 12z tafs...cold front is now extending across western Tennessee with gusty SW
winds of 15 to 30 kts ahead of the cold front. The cold front will go through
kmsl around 15z and khsv by 16z. No precipitation is expected ahead of the
cold front. The cold front will be out of the Tennessee Valley by 18z/19z. Behind the
cold front winds/clouds will begin to diminish. Otherwise MVFR conditions
are expected until around 19z...after 19z expect VFR conditions for the
remainder of the forecast.

07

&&

Hun watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Tennessee...none.
&&

$$

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