Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville Alabama
254 am CDT sun Oct 4 2015
upper low was centered over southwestern Georgia while at the surface an inverted
trough extended from southeast Georgia through eastern Tennessee. Local radars were showing rain showers
activity over Georgia was having a hard time moving west at this time. At 3 am
temperatures around the Tennessee Valley were in the middle 50s with low 50s dewpoints.
Low clouds are still covering the entire County Warning Area with patchy dz/-ra.
For today the upper low will finally begin to move southeast towards the
southeastern coastline. This will allow the rain showers activity to begin to taper
off from west to east. For now will go with slight probability of precipitation west of i65 and chance
probability of precipitation across our northestern zones until 18z. After 18z will cover the County Warning Area
with a slight pop for rain showers. Temperatures may be tricky today due to cloud
cover. For now went a few degrees below MOS values to account for
Tonight will keep a 20 pop over our extreme northestern zones only until
midnight. After midnight will end the chance of precipitation across the Tennessee
Valley. Thinking that there will still be enough clouds around to
keep any significant widespread/dense fog from forming.
Monday through Friday...as the previously mentioned upper low moves east
of the Tennessee Valley...a ridge will begin to build across the region.
This will allow for drier conditions and a warming trend to begin
across the County Warning Area. Afternoon highs will be near 80 with morning lows in the
middle/upper 50s during this period.
Saturday...a cold front/upper trough is prognosticated to affect the Tennessee Valley
with a chance of precipitation. At this time will go with slight probability of precipitation and throw in a few
storms especially on Saturday afternoon since there is some weak
instability across the area.
/issued 1201 am CDT sun Oct 4 2015/
for 06z tafs...
low and middle level winds have shifted to a more easterly direction
and the rain showers that was over northern Georgia is now starting to stream into
the Tennessee Valley. Difficult forecast tonight in terms of ceilings as
they have been fluctuating from MVFR to IFR all evening. Although
with the -shra moving in ceilings will probably drop to IFR...however
confidence is low. Amendments will likely be needed tonight. Ceilings
are expected to transition to MVFR/VFR during the day on Sunday as
drier air begins to move in.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Huntsville 75 60 81 58 / 30 10 10 10
Shoals 76 60 82 59 / 20 10 10 10
Vinemont 74 59 79 58 / 30 10 10 10
Fayetteville 74 58 79 56 / 30 10 10 10
Albertville 72 59 78 58 / 40 20 10 10
Fort Payne 72 58 79 57 / 50 20 10 10
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