Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Huntsville Alabama
654 PM CDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014
for 00z tafs
/issued 137 PM CDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014/
small mcss continue to traverse surface and middle level thermal
boundaries across the Ozark Plateau. The convection erodes quickly
upon reaching dry low levels along the MS River Valley. This trend
will continue through tonight, but there are more indications,
especially via the NAM, that at least some sprinkles could occur in
our western counties late tonight or early Thursday. Dry low level
soundings prompt only a low pop at this point. Low level ridging over
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley should continue to produce northeasterly
advection of dry air through Thursday before veering to a more east-southeasterly
moist flow. This flow pattern may allow for isolated to scattered convective
precipitation to develop over the southern appalachian terrain this weekend, but
have left out of the forecast for now. Late night and early morning
valley fog will be possible during the weekend as well, but will have
a better assessment of this in the next couple of days.
Few changes are being made to the extended forecast package. The
remnants of Odile look to remain over the Southern Plains or possibly
dropping into the lower MS valley on Sunday. A cool front arrives on
late Sunday into early Monday as a strong northwest flow wave tracks through
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. Qg dynamics appear weak on
our portion of the front, so have kept the pop low at this time. Another
period of dry and cooler weather is expected through the middle of next week.
The medium range models are still having a very difficult time with
consistency and position of amplification of the longwave pattern.
Will leave days 6-7 alone for now.
for 00z tafs...VFR conditions will prevail through the taf period.
Cloud cover will increase with the remnants of a storm system
approaching from the northwest. Kmsl could see a few showers after midnight
while khsv should remain dry.
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