Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Huntsville Alabama
1125 PM CST Friday Dec 26 2014
for 06z tafs
/issued 849 PM CST Friday Dec 26 2014/
The surface high pressure system continues to prevail across the
southeast for now with isolated clusters of stratiform overunning
rain via weak isentropic lift moving across the Tennessee Valley this
evening. This isentropic lift looks to move off to the northeast
between 09-12z. As a result, made changes earlier to the forecast to
add a schc of rain through the overnight. Then, widespread shower
activity developing ahead of the progressive upper trough over The
Rockies shift eastward towards the Tennessee Valley later on Sat morning.
Temperatures were also trending a little cooler in spots, especially with
the discontinuity of middle-high level cloud cover. So, made adjustments
to the temperatures particularly over NE Alabama/S middle Tennessee. The dewpoint
forecast required some tweaking for current trends. Otherwise, the
rest of the forecast looks fine.
for 06z tafs...
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the next 17-18 hours
before widespread rain showers activity develops and moves across the region
after 17-18z. Did include vcsh for isolated -shra activity mainly
between 06-12z. MVFR conditions are then expected with further drops in
category possible after 28/00z.
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