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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Huntsville Alabama
603 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015

Update...
for 00z tafs

&&

Discussion...
/issued 233 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015/
the 19z surface analysis indicated that a cold front was moving
progressively southeast through the southern portions of
Missouri...Illinois and Indiana. Dewpoints ahead of the cold front
were in the middle to upper 70s with scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain along and
slightly ahead of the boundary. Scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain was moving south
through the forecast area this afternoon along a weak short wave
trough at 500 millibars. This activity has kept temperatures down this
afternoon.

In the short term for tonight...will keep in rain showers/thunderstorms and rain chances
overnight as the cold front is prognosticated to make it to near Nashville
Tennessee by around 06z and across southern middle Tennessee near
forecast area by 12z Thursday. Expect that rain showers/thunderstorms and rain chances should
mainly be in the morning hours on Thursday as the cold front sweeps
further south through the forecast area by 18z. A large area of high
pressure is prognosticated by the models to move southeast into the lower
Ohio Valley by 00z Friday. This should put an end to the precipitation on
or before this time frame on Thursday afternoon from north to south
across the forecast area. Dewpoint temperatures are expected to drop into
welcome levels in the lower to middle 60s by early Friday morning.

The high pressure area is expected to dig further southeast into the
Tennessee Valley by Friday with temperatures expected to be near normal with
dewpoints in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. The models keep the
upper trough across the northeast U.S. Through Sunday...with a dry
cold front expected to move through the region on Sunday. Will
continue with dry and near normal temperatures slightly below guidance
through the weekend. By Tuesday...the ridge of high pressure is
expected to shift to the Atlantic coast...with a low level southwest
flow expected to set up. The expected increase in low level
moisture/dewpoints is again expected to result in a slow increase in
rain showers/thunderstorms and rain across the forecast area between Tuesday and next
Wednesday. Will keep in at least slight chance probability of precipitation for the forecast
area during this time frame and will keep temperatures at near guidance
values through the end of the extended forecast period.

Tt

&&

Aviation...
for 00z tafs... VFR conditions are expected for most locations through
tonight. Patchy br may produce MVFR category visibilities (3-5sm) from
10-13z. Also, a cold front dropping southeast will produce scattered
thunderstorms and rain which could impact north Alabama and southern Tennessee late
tonight into early Thursday. However, the probability remains too low to
include in the prevailing forecast at this time. If this probability increases,
either an amend or update at 06z will include this potential.

Alaska

&&

Hun watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Tennessee...none.
&&

$$

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