Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Huntsville Alabama
622 PM CDT Friday Oct 24 2014
for 00z tafs
/issued 141 PM CDT Friday Oct 24 2014/
another spectacular early fall afternoon in progress across the
Tennessee Valley with sunny skies and temperatures currently in the
low to middle 70s. The latest surface analysis shows a broad ridge axis
extending from the Piney Woods of Texas northeast through the MS
Delta through middle Tennessee to the central Appalachians. The Tennessee
Valley region remains under light north/northeasterly flow which is
helping to keep dewpoints down in the lower 40s (in most areas).
Temperatures will drop quickly once again after sunset under clear
skies and light winds. Will keep tonight's mins close to this
morning's readings. Given the persistent airmass will also once again
mention the Valley/River fog which has been rather prevalent this
The surface high will remain parked across the Tennessee Valley through the weekend
with the u/L Ridge axis located across the eastern plains. This will
maintain light flow, dry conditions, and large diurnal ranges over
the next several Days. Ridge axis begins to move slowly east Sunday
night/Monday with southerly flow and a slow increase in moisture
across the region. MOS guidance is in general agreement over the next
3-4 days and went with a blend that has high temperatures creeping
to near 10 degrees above normal by the Sunday/Monday time frame.
As we approach the extended period...have trended toward the European model (ecmwf)
model as it seems to handle the energy (remnants of ts ana) coming
ashore across the Pacific northwest better. This will result in an
approaching cold front to our area Tuesday/Tuesday night. Although
the low level moisture return will be somewhat marginal ahead of the
aforementioned front, will maintain an inclusion of thunder for now.
Significant energy is prognosticated to remain upstream in the trough so
expect the initial front to either hang up or dissipate across the
region on Wednesday before a more robust system sweeps across on
Thursday. This will set the stage for a bit cooler end to next week.
for 00z tafs...
VFR conditions...with light winds should prevail into the overnight.
Given kmsl location near Tennessee River...have continued tempo 3sm br in
the late night/daybreak Sat morning. Otherwise...winds should become
SW-west around 5 knots Sat afternoon.
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