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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Huntsville Alabama
332 PM CDT Monday may 4 2015

Discussion...
mostly sunny skies with plenty of fair weather cumulus across the entire
region this afternoon. These will continue through sunset and then
begin to clear out. High pressure currently over the area will remain
over the area for a majority of the work week. Expect mostly sunny
skies with some afternoon fair weather cumulus likely. Temperatures are
expected to continue to be above normal through the week with a
degree or two of warming each day. We could see our first taste of
upper 80s to close to 90 degrees by later in the week and to quote a
former forecaster...big bubble...no trouble!

Late this week and into the weekend...models are in fairly good
agreement in forming a tropical like low pressure system off the
SC/NC coast by Wednesday night/Thursday morning. They begin to
diverge in what to do with the low...the European model (ecmwf) keeps the low spinning
off the SC coast through early next week. The Gem/dgex bring the low
into the SC/NC area Friday and lift the system north into the NC/Virginia
region by Saturday. The GFS on the other hand takes the low and
pushes it into the SC/Georgia area Friday afternoon and keeps it there
through the weekend. If this solution is correct we could see
moisture spread into our eastern counties Saturday which could
generate a few showers/thunderstorms over the higher terrain of NE
Alabama and southern middle Tennessee Saturday. While this more
western solution is currently the odd solution out compared to the
rest of the medium range models...there is some support for this in a
few of the GFS ensemble solutions. Due to the continued discrepancies
in the handling of this system have opted to keep the forecast dry
for Saturday.

By Sunday...a low pressure system that will have been located over
the Desert Southwest shifts into the Central Plains. As this
continues to propagate eastward into the Great Lakes region it will
drag a cold front through the area Sunday into Monday. The timing of
front is still uncertain but have increased probability of precipitation and kept the mention
of showers/thunderstorms Sunday and Monday to account for the front.
High pressure builds back into the region behind the front and we
return to near warm and dry conditions.

Stumpf

&&

Aviation...
/issued 1238 PM CDT Monday may 4 2015/
for 18z tafs...expect a few/scattered high level cumulus to lower
level middle clouds to continue across the area until around 00z
tonight. Will continue with VFR conditions through the forecast
periods at both hsv and mean sea level.

Tt

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Huntsville 58 83 58 83 / 0 0 0 10
Shoals 57 83 58 84 / 0 0 0 10
Vinemont 55 82 55 82 / 0 10 0 10
Fayetteville 55 82 56 81 / 0 10 0 10
Albertville 55 82 56 82 / 0 10 0 10
Fort Payne 53 82 54 82 / 0 10 0 10

&&

Hun watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Tennessee...none.
&&

$$

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