Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville Alabama
1156 PM CDT Thursday Jul 2 2015
for 06z tafs
/issued 226 PM CDT Thursday Jul 2 2015/
A wet, mean trough pattern will prevail across the Tennessee Valley over
the next 4-5 days. Currently, a mean trough remains across the
eastern half of the Continental U.S. While the western Continental U.S. Remains within an
elongated ridge stretching north to British Columbia. Compressed between
the mean trough and ridge are several middle level shortwave troughs
moving southeast from the Dakotas towards the Tennessee/MS river valleys.
The trajectory of these middle-level shortwave troughs and mesoscale convective system induced
outflow boundaries will be the primary impetus for showers and
thunderstorms for the forecast.
/issued 904 PM CDT Thursday Jul 2 2015/
a stronger upper wave is pushing south into southern Missouri at this
time and more widespread showers and thunderstorms are developing
across Tennessee and Arkansas. For the local area...a few stronger
storms are in Lauderdale County Alabama and coming into Lincoln County Tennessee.
Additional light showers are evident across the rest of northern
Alabama as well. Still expecting the widespread showers to slowly
move southeast overnight and just lowered probability of precipitation slightly since they
are just scattered over our County Warning Area at the moment. Looks like the highest
coverage will be after 06z which hires guidance also supports.
Another forecast challenge looks to be temperatures overnight. They
have not decreased as quickly as originally planned and latest
guidance shows lows a few degree warmer than previously forecast likely
due to the continued cloud cover...precipitation and southwesterly flow.
Therefore have bumped them up a couple degree in most locations.
for 06z tafs...isolated showers across the terminals now with
additional showers/thunderstorms approaching from the northwest. Will
continue the thunderstorms and rain mention after 10/11z as the thunderstorms increase
in coverage. Low confidence on the timing of The Breaks of any
showers/thunderstorms so will go with a prob30 for thunderstorms and rain in the late
morning with a break again late in the afternoon/evening. Timing of
the gusts in the afternoon may need to be amended with occasional
gusts to 22-25kt possible. Ceilings may drop briefly lower than forecast
in any heavier showers.
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