Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville Alabama
1007 am CDT Wednesday Aug 20 2014
temperatures across the Tennessee Valley this morning currently range
from the upper 70s (ne al) to the lower 80s (nw al), with mostly
clear skies in many locations (with the exception of far northestern
portions of the County warning forecast area where mostly cloudy skies prevail).
Today will be the last day for any appreciable rainfall for nearly
the next 7 days, as upper/surface ridging builds into the area and
remains in control through the middle/latter half of next week.
The rain chances for today are a bit tricky. The remnants of an old
outflow boundary could be seen earlier this morning sagging southeast
through the cwfa, but otherwise, there isn't a true focus mechanism
until later today (aside from orographic effects in northestern portions of
the area). The next (and final) shortwave is currently affecting the
upper MS valley region, and is slated to slide sewrd in the northwest flow
aloft toward the area later today. Upper level flow would keep much
of the activity over the junctions of Georgia/TN/NC, but the western
periphery could clip our eastern counties. A blend of morning bufr
soundings show ~3000 j/kg SBCAPE once a ~100 j/kg cap is broken
later this afternoon, and short-term/hi-res model guidance supports
this convective potential. Will therefore increase probability of precipitation for the
afternoon, with the highest probability of precipitation east of I-65.
Otherwise, minor adjustments were made to weather grids, as well as sky
grids to follow in line with observational trends. No other changes
were necessary as all other weather elements were in great shape. Temperatures
look to top out in the lower 90s east/middle 90s west.
Will send updated products shortly.
/issued 620 am CDT Wednesday Aug 20 2014/
for 12z tafs...under northwest flow this morning a few rain showers/thunderstorms and rain have develop
over portions of middle Tennessee (east of bna). Based on satellite/radar trends
thinking that this precipitation will stay North/East of the taf sites.
A large upper ridge will continue to build towards the Tennessee Valley
today and through the remainder of the work week. Otherwise mainly VFR
conditions are expected through the forecast period.
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