Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville Alabama
304 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015
the 19z surface analysis and satellite imagery indicated that skies
across the forecast area were generally mostly sunny with temperatures in
the upper 70s to middle 80s. A weak area of isolated showers were moving
out of the forecast area and were mainly west of Cullman County.
Skies should become mostly clear tonight...and will again mention
patchy dense fog especially in valley locations and near bodies of
water. Temperature/dewpoint depressions should be around two degrees or
less toward sunrise...which should result in more fog formation.
A high pressure ridge axis will remain across the region until late
Thursday. The European model (ecmwf) and GFS models are similar in moving a 500
millibar trough through the Great Lakes and into the lower Ohio
Valley region between Thursday and early Friday. Most of the
instability/short wave energy will remain northeast of the forecast
area Friday afternoon/evening...but will continue with chance shower
probability of precipitation. The GFS/European model (ecmwf) models are similar in moving the cold front
through the forecast area by 00z Saturday. A large area of high
pressure will build southeast into the Tennessee Valley by early
Saturday. The ridge axis will move east of the region by
Sunday...with a warming trend setting up by Sunday and Monday. Have
gone with a mix between the cooler European model (ecmwf) and slightly warmer GFS
temperatures during the extended forecast periods.
/issued 1235 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015/
for 18z tafs...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through much of the forecast
period. Low clouds have begun to develop across the area...thanks to
daytime heating and a weak shortwave that is traversing the region.
Ceilings will remain above 3000 feet...and will lift further after
sunset. Winds will generally remain light during the afternoon and
overnight hours...and become more northeasterly after sunrise on
Wednesday. While widespread fog development is not
anticipated...based on conditions this morning have included mention
of MVFR visibilities at the kmsl terminal. Any fog that does develop
will lift quickly after sunrise.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Huntsville 60 86 60 87 / 0 0 0 10
Shoals 60 85 60 87 / 0 0 0 10
Vinemont 61 84 60 84 / 0 0 0 10
Fayetteville 57 83 59 85 / 0 0 0 10
Albertville 60 83 60 83 / 0 0 0 10
Fort Payne 59 82 59 83 / 0 0 0 10
For more information please visit our website