Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Huntsville Alabama
932 PM CDT sun Sep 21 2014
adjustments to most forecast elements to reflect the latest
trends...although most changes were minor.
surface observations at 9 PM CDT indicate a cooler/drier cp airmass
poised just to our north...ready to enter the area. Winds have
shifted to northerly at most locations north of the Tennessee
River, although the stronger dew point gradient lingers behind the
wind shift by about 100 miles. At the leading edge of the complex
frontal boundary along the low-level convergence axis, a few showers
and storms continue to develop and push sewrd. Currently, the
strongest storm in our area is in eastern portions of Cullman County.
Other small, isolated showers lie to the NE from near Albertville to
Valley Head. Most of the shower/storm activity will likely exit the
area by 03z. However, a slight chance shower/storm mention was
included along a very narrow sliver of our forecast area from eastern
Cullman to southern Marshall and eastern DeKalb due to the potential
for lingering small pockets of low-level wind convergence. Sky
conditions will rapidly clear tonight as the drier airmass moves into
the area. Generally minor temperature/dew point adjustments were made to the
forecast. Lows tonight expected to range from the middle 50s in the
north to the low 60s in far southern portions of the area.
/issued 642 PM CDT sun Sep 21 2014/
for 00z tafs...VFR conditions likely over the next 24 hours at
khsv/kmsl taf sites. A light rain showers may move across the khsv Airport mainly
from 00-01z...but reductions of visible/ceiling below VFR are unlikely as
this rain showers is weakening considerably. The primary convergence axis
in associated/west a cold front crossing the area has now shifted to the south of
kmsl so rain showers there are not expected.
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