Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville Alabama
217 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014
Discussion...went with a blend of NAM/GFS/ECMWF for this forecast
package. Otherwise not a bad August day with temperatures in the middle/upper
80s and dewpoints in the lower 60s. Tonight will also be a quiet
night with lows dropping into the middle 60s. Thursday looks to be
dry but a little warmer than today...with highs in the low/middle 90s.
Thursday night will continue dry with lows again mainly in the middle
Friday...kept a slight pop in for Friday night but would not be
surprised if the entire day/night would be dry...as models are
hinting at holding off the timing of the precipitation.
Saturday/Sunday...the upper ridge moves east allowing for a couple of
upper troughs to approach the County Warning Area over the weekend. Timing of precipitation this
far out is tricky at this time...but it does look like the chance of precipitation will
be increasing. Since precipitable waters are around 2 inches localized heavy rain looks
like a good bet. Also cant rule out some strong wind gusts with the
heavy rain. However at this time not expecting widespread severe weather over the
By Monday the upper waves will be east of the County Warning Area. Thus expect
the rain showers/thunderstorms and rain activity to begin to taper off. However a cold front is now
approaching from the Midwest. By Tuesday/Wednesday the cold front is
prognosticated to sag closer towards the Tennessee Valley...this will keep a low
pop in for this timeframe.
/issued 1255 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014/
for 18z tafs...VFR conditions will prevail through the taf period at
khsv and until MVFR fog formation at kmsl around 11z. VFR conditions
will return at kmsl when fog dissipates by 13z. Based off of
previous trends from this morning and additional moisture out west
kept the fog in only at kmsl at this time.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Huntsville 66 94 66 94 / 0 10 10 10
Shoals 67 96 67 95 / 0 10 10 10
Vinemont 66 94 66 94 / 0 10 10 10
Fayetteville 64 93 64 92 / 0 10 10 10
Albertville 64 93 64 93 / 0 10 10 10
Fort Payne 65 93 64 93 / 0 10 10 10
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