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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Huntsville Alabama
637 am CDT Tuesday Mar 31 2015

Update...
for 12z tafs

&&

Discussion...
/issued 358 am CDT Tuesday Mar 31 2015/
a much quieter night in progress...especially compared to a thundery
24 hours or so ago. Convection that preceded/accompanied a passing
cold front last night now was well off of the southeast coast. The
aforementioned frontal boundary was now stationary...extending from
NE Oklahoma to near Montgomery and Macon Georgia. A northwest flow aloft has
continued a period of clear skies. Despite residual moisture from
last nights convection and no clouds...a dry enough atmosphere has
kept fog formation at Bay...thus far. However...could see some
patchy development around daybreak.

The brief dry spell now on-going will come to and end later this
morning...as moisture south of the region returns northward...and
another front arrives from the north. Given on-going dry conditions
and no rain in sight...have delayed the start of precipitation until the
late morning...with better chances in the afternoon/evening.
Soundings from the NAM/GFS indicated rather healthy instability
aloft...both showing cape values in the upper hundreds to 1100
j/kg...along with moderate helicity. Thus a strong storm or two
cannot be ruled out...with the main threat gusty winds and small
hail.

An unsettled middle week with some chance of showers/thunderstorms will
continue. A stronger cold front is poised to move across the area
late in the week...bringing a risk of strong to possibly severe
storms (damaging winds and/or large hail primary threats). The
GFS/European model (ecmwf) in the good Friday time- frame were similar...with the GFS
a tad faster with this next system. Given stronger forcing...have
maintained likely probability of precipitation for Friday. The rest of the Easter weekend looks
to be dry and cooler. The ec has trended colder Saturday night...with
its MOS showing 37 by Sunday morning. The GFS was warmer around 40.
May be a risk of some frosting to start next week. Another system is
forecast to bring increasing clouds...and more chances of rain to get
a new work week started.

Rsb

&&

Aviation...
for 12z tafs...predom clear skies/VFR conds prevail across the area
at this time...but clouds will begin to increase later this morning due to
an approaching upper short wave. Scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain will develop early
this afternoon due to daytime heating and a cold front approaching from
the north. Otherwise...VFR conds should prevail except in/near heavier
thunderstorms and rain...where brief/tempo MVFR conds may develop.

09

&&

Hun watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Tennessee...none.
&&

$$

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