Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
140 PM PDT Thursday Mar 26 2015
a strong ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the
region providing dry weather and pushing temperatures well above
normal through the end of the week. A weak Pacific disturbance
will move in over the weekend and bring slight cooling and breezy
conditions along with a small chance of some light showers over
the Sierra crest. Temperatures will remain several degrees above
normal through the weekend and into next week.
satellite loops show mainly clear skies over the weather forecast office Hanford
warning/forecast area today as a building upper-level ridge is
firmly in place. At 20z /1300 PDT/...temperatures across the central
and southern San Joaquin Valley were mostly in the upper 70s to
lower 80s and were up as much as 11 degrees over 20z Wednesday. This
would place high temperatures in the valley today in the middle
80s...and flirt with record values at both Bakersfield and Fresno.
The short-range models are in general agreement with 850-mb
temperatures over the central San Joaquin Valley warming 0.5-1.0 c
Friday from today...with surface temperatures up around 2-4 degrees.
The warmest valley locations could see highs in the lower 90s.
The period of well-above normal temperatures will be short-lived as
the models have a minor upper-level short-wave moving through the
Pacific northwest and northern California over the weekend. This
short-wave will weaken the ridge and bring a cooling /relatively
speaking/ trend to the region with lowering heights and a weak
onshore flow. Still...temperatures Sunday will still be 8-12 degrees
above normal even though they will be 8-12 degrees cooler than
The short-wave also may bring a slight chance of showers to the high
country of the southern Sierra Nevada Saturday and Sunday.
Confidence in precipitation Saturday is low...and just marginally
higher for Sunday.
The GFS has another short-wave moving through the area next Tuesday
but again confidence is low...especially as the European model (ecmwf) forecasts an
upper-level ridge over California with even higher 850-mb
temperatures over the Central Valley than Friday. The European model (ecmwf) then
follows the ridge with a strong trough toward the end of next week.
The current forecast trends toward the GFS solution but keeps
temperatures several degrees above through next week.
VFR conditions can be expected throughout the central California
interior during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is low.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 03-26 87:1988 49:1991 57:1928 34:1942
kfat 03-27 87:1986 52:1924 56:1930 31:1972
kfat 03-28 85:1986 53:1982 57:1957 33:1972
Kbfl 03-26 87:1997 52:1936 61:1971 21:1907
kbfl 03-27 90:1986 50:1991 57:1978 32:1908
kbfl 03-28 88:1893 53:1998 58:1957 24:1907