Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
445 PM PST Sat Jan 31 2015
updated air quality section.
patchy late night and early morning dense fog will be possible
through the weekend into next week for the San Joaquin Valley. High
pressure will continue to build over California resulting in above
normal temperatures and dry weather through at least the middle of
upper level high pressure began building over the region this
afternoon...resulting in a warming trend across the area. Patchy
dense fog cleared around 10 am this morning for many
locations...allowing for rapid warming. Temperatures are currently
between 2 and 6 degrees warmer compared to this time
yesterday...and are expected to warm into the middle 60s through the
valley...nearly 10 degrees above normal for the last day in
January. However...these temperatures are far from the daily
records which are anywhere from the middle 70s to low 80s.
Otherwise...patchy dense fog was once again present through much
of the valley...with visibility falling to a quarter mile or less.
Visibility rapidly improved between 9 and 10 this morning with a
few locations holding onto the low visibility through 11 am. Dense
fog is expected to form again around midnight. With high pressure
dominating the area through at least the middle of next
week...expect patchy dense fog each late into the morning hours.
A warm and dry week is expected for much of next week as high
pressure dominates the region. By Thursday...an upper trough is
forecast to move east toward the California coastline with the
ridge shifting east over Nevada. The ensemble means are in good
agreement with regards to the position of the upper trough and the
ridge axis...but are struggling with precipitation for the area.
The naefs probability of measurable precipitation for the region
has been shifting slowly north from run to run...giving
forecasters low confidence with the region seeing any rain. If it
does rain...it will likely fall north of Fresno County...where
only very light rain is possible Friday through the weekend.
Please continue to monitor the weather as we hope to get a better
handle on this storm system as the week progresses.
in the San Joaquin Valley...mainly MVFR visibility with local IFR in
haze through 06z sun then becoming mainly IFR in mist with areas of
LIFR in fog by 10z sun. Conditions improving to mainly MVFR in haze
between 18z sun and 20z sun. Across the remainder of the central California
interior...VFR conditions can be expected during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
on Sunday February 1 2015... fireplace/wood stove burning status
is: no burning unless registered in Fresno... Kern... Kings...
Madera... Merced and Tulare counties.
Further information is available at valleyair.Org
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is low.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 01-31 75:1984 39:1969 55:1963 26:1949
kfat 02-01 73:1991 43:1939 54:1905 25:1950
kfat 02-02 74:1928 44:1903 57:1907 26:1950
Kbfl 01-31 82:1984 45:1969 57:1963 23:1902
kbfl 02-01 76:1928 45:1965 55:1963 24:1902
kbfl 02-02 80:1928 44:1971 61:1958 23:1893
dense fog advisory from midnight tonight to 11 am PST Sunday