Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
325 am PDT Sat Apr 19 2014

a weak storm system moving across the state will continue the
chance for showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada into
Sunday. Monday will be dry as high pressure briefly builds over
central California. However...a more vigorous storm system will
arrive Tuesday ushering in much cooler...below normal...temperatures
and the potential for light rain and snow over the Sierra Nevada.
Strong winds will also be possible in the mountains and passes
Tuesday with blowing dust possible across eastern Kern County.
Quieter and warming weather will return later next week.


all quiet across the central California interior after Friday
afternoon/S convection over the Sierra Nevada...and Kern County
deserts. While the skies over the district remain clear this
morning...convective potential continues as a concern for this
Saturday afternoon. Current upper air analysis along with short
range models progging wrap around moisture pushing into the Sierra
Nevada today from a low moving into The Four Corners area. Models
also progging Li/S to reach values of near minus 3 along with cape
values of over 700 j/kg by this afternoon. Therefore...along with
a Theta-E ridge of over 325k along the Sierra Nevada crest...
support exist for afternoon convection. Yet...while short term
forecasts show a weak cold front pushing through central California
this Saturday evening...the timing of its arrival may only place
Yosemite in the biggest threat area. However...orographic lift
from the southeast to east may be the lift needed for afternoon
convection in a very warm environment. Therefore...will continue
to mention afternoon convection for at least one more day.

By Sunday...the upper low moves more toward the Great Plains...
allowing a zonal type flow to move into the central California
interior. While showers may linger over the Sierra on Sunday...
will taper off the probability of precipitation for Sunday and into Monday.
While the ridge pattern will be short-lived for the west...models
introduce another upper low toward the middle of the week. Models
Show Low uncertainty with a storm system on Tuesday. Current
timing for the onset of possible precipitation will be near Tuesday
morning and mainly clipping the northern half of the district.
Yet...while precipitation may not spread across the district...strong
winds may be more of a concern for Tuesday. Models showing a very
good temperature gradient at the 925mb and 850mb levels on
Tuesday...which would indicate possible strong winds.

Afterward...a ridge returns for the latter parts the week...ahead
of another possible storm. While certainty is much lower on the
last storm...will mention a slight probability of precipitation...again over the
northern half of the district.


mountain obscuration over the southern Sierra Nevada with showers
and thunderstorms possible between 19z Saturday and 03z Sunday.
Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail across the central California
interior during the next 24 hours.


Air quality issues...



The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.


site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year

Kfat 04-19 93:2009 54:1967 64:1938 35:1955
kfat 04-20 96:2009 53:1957 62:1989 36:1896
kfat 04-21 98:2009 50:1900 64:2012 36:1968

Kbfl 04-19 98:1910 54:1967 62:1938 38:1996
kbfl 04-20 98:1906 59:2007 64:1939 36:1904
kbfl 04-21 99:2009 57:2010 64:2009 33:1904

Hnx watches/warnings/advisories...