Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
107 PM PDT Thursday Apr 24 2014

a Pacific storm system will move into and across the region late
tonight through Saturday bringing mountain snow and lower elevation
rain showers along with gusty winds. Some thunder is also possible
on Friday afternoon in the San Joaquin Valley and Sierra Nevada
foothills. High pressure will then build in from the west with
drying and warming conditions for next week.


models continue to show strong signals in both deterministic and
ensemble runs indicating precipitation moving into the region by tomorrow
afternoon. Cold front dropping in from northern California will spread precipitation
across the central California interior. Water vapor transport indicates
limited moisture with the system...however the dynamics are very
impressive and will coincide with upslope forcing and wring out
any moisture associated with the front.

Thunderstorms are marginal at best tomorrow as cold pool remains
off the coast. However if we get enough heating in the am we could
see an isolated cell pop up north of Fresno County where the best
dynamics are expected in the afternoon with the front. MUCAPES
are less than 200 j/kg and surface based Li values are above 0 over
most of the area.

Snow will be a welcome sight for the Sierra as snow levels will
start high and lower through the event Friday night. As mentioned
earlier we are expecting favorable upslope conditions but moisture
will be somewhat limited based on current model runs. The new
HPC/cnrfc guidance is a little bit wetter than yesterday...but
still within advection criteria. We have started snow levels around 7000
feet and lowered them to 4000 feet by the end of the event behind
the front and back into the colder airmass. As the front slides
south we are expecting the precipitation to taper off into Kern County
and associated mountains. However we are expecting some light snow
possible at pass levels as the system moves east and conditions
wind down late Friday and early Sat am.

Winds will also be an issue as the front pushes south into the
Kern County mountains and desert regions. Winds will be strong
through the passes and into the desert Escarpment near Mojave. Winds
will pick up tomorrow morning and continue through Friday evening
as the front pushes through.

The extended forecast after the system moves through
Sat...indicates an upper ridge building back into the area with
temperatures rising to well above normal by the middle of next
week. Dry conditions are expected next week.


IFR conditions and mountain obscurations will develop over the
higher elevations of the Sierra between 07z and 15z Friday
and persist through 00z Saturday in precipitation. Local MVFR
ceilings are possible in the Sierra foothills and in the Kern
County mountains after 18z Friday. VFR conditions will prevail
elsewhere across the central California interior during the next
24 hours. Additionally...winds of 35 knots or greater will occur
after 09z Friday along the Sierra crest and after 18z Friday
through and below the mountain passes of Kern County.


Air quality issues...



The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.

This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.


site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year

Kfat 04-24 101:1910 60:1899 63:1910 36:1958
kfat 04-25 101:1898 55:1952 64:1898 36:1964
kfat 04-26 98:1926 57:1955 68:1926 37:1975

Kbfl 04-24 100:1910 64:1994 62:1981 34:1904
kbfl 04-25 97:1946 60:1951 65:1910 32:1893
kbfl 04-26 98:1926 57:1904 67:1926 32:1893

Hnx watches/warnings/advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 am Friday to 5 am PDT Saturday
above 6000 feet for the caz096-097.

Wind Advisory from 11 am to 11 PM PDT Friday caz095-098-099.