Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
806 PM PDT sun Apr 20 2014

Update...updated synopsis.

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Synopsis...
fair skies and warm temperatures will continue through Monday as
weak high pressure prevails. A frontal system on Tuesday will bring
significant cooling and blustery conditions to the region and a
chance of light precipitation over the northern part of the
forecast area. Temperatures will continue cooler than average on
Wednesday before rebounding a few degrees at the end of the week.

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Discussion...temperatures are generally a few degrees warmer than 24
hours ago across the area as an upper level ridge builds inland...
except lagging a bit in the sjv where the shallow layer of recently
arrived cooler air has been a bit slow to mix out. Expect a
continued slight warming trend over our entire area tomorrow ahead
of the next approaching trough.

Models are in good agreement in handling the developing system...
moving the trough inland across California Tuesday. Moisture and
precipitation chances with this system are shown mainly north of our
area...and our forecast keeps just some slight chance probability of precipitation in the
valley generally north of Fresno County...with better chances in the
Sierra zones north of Kern County. The main effect from this
system will be a significant cooldown to slightly below normal
temperatures Tuesday...along with gusty winds. Wind Advisory level gusts
will likely be reached through and below mountain passes and along
the west side of the valley. This is highlighted in the current
hazardous weather outlook.

Temperatures are then prognosticated to recover a few degrees through the
end of the week ahead of another developing low pressure system.
Model consistency with this system begins to break down a bit but
there is general agreement in tracking the trough across California
Friday and Saturday. Indications are this trough may be a bit
deeper than the previous system. Our current forecast shows similar
probability of precipitation for the weekend with this incoming trough...with temperatures
cooling to around climatology by Sunday.



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Aviation...
VFR conditions will prevail across the central California interior
during the next 24 hours.

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Air quality issues...
none.

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Certainty...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.

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Climate...
records
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year

Kfat 04-20 96:2009 53:1957 62:1989 36:1896
kfat 04-21 98:2009 50:1900 64:2012 36:1968
kfat 04-22 96:2012 57:2010 66:2012 33:1968

Kbfl 04-20 98:1906 59:2007 64:1939 36:1904
kbfl 04-21 99:2009 57:2010 64:2009 33:1904
kbfl 04-22 98:2012 58:2010 67:2012 34:1920
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Hnx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
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$$

Public/AVN...jeb
public/fw...mv
synopsis...bso

Weather.Gov/Hanford