Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
310 am PDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015
clear skies and near normal temperatures continue to prevail over
the forecast area. A warming trend is expected by middle week as high
pressure strengthens. Tropical moisture may bring increased cloud
cover and isolated mountain and desert thunderstorms by the end of
an upper-level low was moving into southwestern Manitoba this
morning...pulling a trough through the far western United States.
This trough kept high temperatures Monday similar to Sunday...with
central and southern San Joaquin Valley having highs in the middle 90s.
The trough is forecast to lift northeast today...allowing the upper-
level ridge over the eastern two-thirds of the United States to
build westward into California. Temperatures will warm to around 100
in the San Joaquin Valley today...and continue to warm Wednesday.
Wednesday should be the warmest day of the week...as middle-level
monsoonal moisture will be a factor dominating the weather for the
latter half of the week.
The GFS has the monsoonal moisture pushing into southeastern
California as early as Wednesday afternoon and into the southeastern
Kern County desert by 12z /0500 PDT/ Thursday. The moisture is
forecast to overspread Kern County by 00z Friday /1700 PDT Thursday/
and bring the threat of thunderstorms to the region. The other
impact will be overrunning middle- and high-level clouds which would
bring slightly cooler temperatures Thursday and Friday. The model
blends do forecast around 2 degrees cooling from Wednesday to
Thursday...and daily drops of around a degree Thursday through the
The GFS begins drying out the middle-levels of the atmosphere over
interior central California Saturday as the flow aloft over the
region begins turning southwesterly. Thunderstorms likely will be
confined to the mountains Saturday into early next week.
VFR conditions can be expected throughout the central California interior
during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
on Tuesday July 28 2015... unhealthy for sensitive groups in
Fresno and Madera counties.
Further information is available at valleyair.Org
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 07-28 110:1980 89:1941 82:1980 55:1892
kfat 07-29 113:1898 87:1896 78:2003 57:1950
kfat 07-30 114:1898 80:1966 83:2003 57:1975
Kbfl 07-28 118:1908 85:1941 84:1931 50:1914
kbfl 07-29 114:1908 87:1965 86:2003 52:1914
kbfl 07-30 112:1908 82:1965 82:2014 48:1914