Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
200 PM PDT Friday Oct 24 2014
a low pressure system will bring increased clouds along with a
cooling trend and increased winds over the higher elevations by
Saturday. High pressure will build inland by the middle of next week
bringing a return to warmer temperatures.
Discussion...today will be one more warm day and likely the warmest
until next week as high pressure ridging will remain in control over
central California. Based on latest satellite imagery...the low pressure
trough remains well off the coast of northern California and the Pacific
northwest and will move inland by Saturday afternoon...mainly over
northern California and the Pacific northwest. In our County Warning Area...little precipitation is
expected with this system during Saturday. Best chances remain over
the Sierra Nevada from Yosemite to Sequoia Park...with a slight
chance for light rain over the San Joaquin Valley north of Fresno.
The main impacts from this system will be strong and gusty
winds...over the Sierra crest and cooler temperatures throughout the
region. Winds will increase over the San Joaquin Valley by Saturday
afternoon and into the evening as the trough moves inland with
mainly breezy conditions expected...including along the west side of
the sj valley. Blowing dust will be a possibility during the
afternoon and evening on Sat...however...will likely remain below
advisory criteria at this time.
On late Sat night have left a slight chance of light rain/drizzle
in the south end of the sj valley and into the Kern County
mountains...mainly around the Grapevine and Frazier Park areas. Also
extended this possibility to into Sun morning as northwesterly...or
upslope winds...behind the low pressure system will likely continue.
Expect the cooling trend to continue over the region on Sunday and
into Monday due to west to northwest flow aloft.
As of the latest morning runs...models are in decent agreement in
building high pressure inland from the east Pacific by Tuesday with
further strengthening on Wednesday. Ridging will likely continue into
Thursday and next Friday. As of the previous model runs from last
night...models disagreed quite significantly in terms of bringing
another low pressure system into central/northern California by the end of
next week. However...as of this morning/S runs...models bring the
next low pressure system after next Saturday. So will likely remain
warm and dry for much of next week.
Confidence is low from Wednesday and beyond as relative measure of
predictability also remains low. For next Friday and Sat...have some
slight chance probability of precipitation over the Sierra...mainly over the higher
elevations. Have opted for climatology in terms of probability of precipitation due to the low
VFR conditions will prevail across the central California interior
during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is low.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 10-24 95:1959 59:1897 63:1982 36:1956
kfat 10-25 91:1966 61:1998 62:1982 36:1971
kfat 10-26 89:2003 57:2004 58:1927 35:1939
Kbfl 10-24 95:1959 59:1971 67:1982 32:1912
kbfl 10-25 94:1917 62:1939 66:1982 35:1899
kbfl 10-26 92:2003 58:1996 61:1959 35:1939