Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
314 am PDT Sat Aug 1 2015
tropical moisture will flow northward over the Sierra through
Sunday...producing mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms. A
drying and cooling trend expected to start Sunday and continue
through the week as upper level winds become more onshore.
water vapor imagery indicating the main axis of sub tropical
moisture has shifted slightly east and is brushing the Sierra
with the main focus over Nevada. Upper level area of high pressure
has shifted back to the east over Texas. Deepening upper low
pressure system off the central coast is slowly drifting east.
The models are progging the ridge to flatten out as energy moving
through Nevada will move NE. The upper level low center off the
central coast will remain nearly stationary through Wednesday. Weak
impulses will eject into northern California through Wednesday with increase onshore flow
and lowering h500 heights. Marine air intrusion is expected to
Lower Valley temperatures to near normal by Sunday and keep US at or
just below normal for this time of year through next Saturday. The
closed low center off the central coast is prognosticated to move NE into
northern California by Sat with even cooler temperatures expected for next weekend.
With drier SW flow aloft...diurnal thunderstorm activity will
drop off after Sunday...as moisture axis continues to shift to
the east of the Sierra. We will see more mixing of the airmass as
ocean cooled air will move into the valley. We are expecting
better mixing and improved smoke conditions to areas that have
been impacted recently.
scattered thunderstorms with local MVFR ceilings and mountain
obscurations can be expected over the Sierra through 06z Sunday.
Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail across the central
California interior during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
on Saturday August 1 2015... unhealthy in Madera County. Unhealthy
for sensitive groups in Fresno... Kern... Kings... Merced and
Further information is available at valleyair.Org
the level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 08-01 112:1908 79:1933 86:1908 56:1888
kfat 08-02 112:1908 83:1953 82:1908 53:1956
kfat 08-03 110:1946 80:1976 78:2014 55:1953
Kbfl 08-01 112:1979 86:1985 80:2000 53:1912
kbfl 08-02 109:1979 86:1976 84:1977 53:1912
kbfl 08-03 112:1938 81:1953 81:1974 53:1912