Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...corrected
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
320 PM PDT Friday Aug 22 2014
Corrected fourth paragraph of discussion
little change in the weather pattern through the weekend...with
daytime high temperatures near to slightly below normal. By the
beginning of next week...high pressure will begin to build over
the area...resulting in a minor warming trend.
satellite loops show clear skies across central California today as
the upper-level low that had been over far Southern California moves
east of the state and an upper-level trough drops into the Pacific
northwest and northern California.
The low moving into Arizona caused an easterly flow over the
southern Sierra Nevada this afternoon...but the dominant flow aloft
will be west to northwest as the deeper trough moves through
northern California into Nevada. The trough will bring an onshore
surface flow...advecting cooler marine air into the San Joaquin
Valley. High temperatures in the valley Saturday will have a hard
time getting out of the upper 80s to lower 90s...with only modest
High pressure will begin building back into California Sunday night
as the trough lifts northeast into the northern rockies.
Temperatures will warm back above normal for the first part of next
week...and next Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the week
with the hottest spots in the San Joaquin Valley hitting triple
The 12z GFS and European model (ecmwf) keep the forecast dry through at least next
Thursday...with the GFS forecasting light quantitative precipitation forecast along the Sierra
Nevada crest Friday afternoon and evening.
Both the GFS and the European model (ecmwf) develop a tropical low off the Mexican
Pacific coast early next week but the model trajectory is well
offshore. The models have had trouble handling this system...and
even the 12z GFS...with a more northerly track than the European model (ecmwf) or the
06z GFS...has the low near 30n/130w at 18z Friday...still west of
Baja California California. The European model (ecmwf) also has the low along 130w at that
time...but further south at 26n. Given the model problems with this
low...confidence in any model trajectory is low.
VFR conditions will prevail across the central California interior
during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is low.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 08-22 108:1897 81:1960 75:1995 50:1899
kfat 08-23 112:1891 79:1959 78:1913 51:1960
kfat 08-24 112:1891 81:1930 80:1913 51:1973
Kbfl 08-22 109:1919 82:1983 78:2009 44:1903
kbfl 08-23 110:1913 83:1960 80:1982 49:1915
kbfl 08-24 112:1913 82:1963 79:1967 45:1903