Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
253 PM PST Tuesday Feb 9 2016
high pressure will continue to bring dry weather to the central
California interior for the next several days with patchy night and
morning fog in the San Joaquin Valley.
Discussion...the upper ridge axis has shifted east over the Great
Basin with dry and unseasonably mild conditions continuing across
the central California interior. An offshore surface flow has helped
warm up the lower elevations even more with widespread readings in
the 70s. As of 2pm...Fresno and Bakersfield had already broken the
high temperature record for the day...with 74 and 78 degrees
respectively. Will likely see them climb a bit more with another
hour or two or warming to go. The ridge will remain in place for
the next couple of days and offshore surface flow will continue...
so expect very similar conditions through Thursday. By Friday an
upper trough will approach the pacnw and bring some cooling...with
further cooling over the weekend aided by an onshore surface flow.
But dry conditions will persist as moisture and dynamics remain
to our north. Ridging rebuilds from the epac early next week with
a rebound to much above normal temperatures once again. Medium
range models shift the ridge east by midweek with a trough nearing
the coast and a possible return to wet weather. The European model (ecmwf) model is
currently the most bullish with this idea.
The offshore pressure gradient continues to produce some wind
gusts to around 35 miles per hour in the Kern County mountains. Do not expect
these to increase any but it will remain gusty tonight as the
gradient slowly weakens further. Modest gusts should continue in
into Thursday. The surface flow transitions to onshore on Friday
and peaks on Saturday with some breezy to gusty winds from the
west and northwest for the Kern County mountains into the desert as
well as the west side of the San Joaquin Valley. The potential
for Tule fog will continue each night in the sjv as well.
in the San Joaquin Valley...areas of MVFR in haze/fog and with local
IFR conditions from 12z to 20z Wednesday. Otherwise...VFR conditions
will prevail across the central California interior for the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
on Tuesday February 9 2016... fireplace/wood stove burning status
is: no burning unless registered in Fresno... Kern... Kings...
Madera... Merced and Tulare counties.
Further information is available at valleyair.Org
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 02-09 71:2012 45:1923 56:1987 27:1891
kfat 02-10 75:1961 44:1894 54:1916 29:1965
kfat 02-11 73:1925 46:2001 53:1970 28:1948
Kbfl 02-09 77:2012 42:1919 58:1975 24:1929
kbfl 02-10 79:1961 47:1967 54:1973 23:1929
kbfl 02-11 81:1925 45:1989 56:1925 20:1901