Scientific Forecaster Discussion

NWS Discussion
			
				

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 
301 PM PDT Sat may 25 2013 


Synopsis... 
a storm system over the Pacific northwest will bring a cool onshore 
flow to the central California interior through the Holiday weekend. 
Temperatures will be near normal through Sunday. Memorial Day will 
bring increasing clouds and cooler afternoon temperatures with the 
possibility of light precipitation mainly over the High Sierra toward 
evening. 


&& 


Discussion... 
a large broad upper trough along the west U.S. Remains near 
stationary. An onshore flow with little moisture will maintain 
cool and dry conditions for much of the weekend. An upper air 
disturbance off the Oregon coast will push through ncal Sunday. 
This will strenghten onshore pressure gradients over central 
California late on Sunday. Strong gusty winds will develop Sunday 
afternoon especially below the mountain passes of Kern County and 
Mojave Desert area. Stronger wind potential may develop Monday as 
a deeper short wave reaches the Pacific northwest and ncal. This system in 
the epac along 40n is accompanied by a fetch of subtropical 
moisture with precipitable water values of 1.5 in and upper jet 120+kt. Models 
have trended a bit drier and not as cold. Operational GFS and ec 
in better agreement with the energy and upper trough. Although 
still some difference in the quantitative precipitation forecast amounts. Most of the vorticity 
energy may push through ncal into the Great Basin Monday night 
into Tuesday morning. Precipitation threat may be focus over the 
mountains with light amounts in the San Joaquin Valley. Snow 
levels may lower near 9kft with 700mb temperatures at 0c degrees. 
An inch or two of snow could fall over the High Sierra Monday 
night into Tuesday. The upper jet will become align with grads 
across central California resulting in windy conditions through 
Wednesday. 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions will prevail across the central California interior. 


&& 


Air quality issues... 
none. 


&& 


Certainty... 


The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. 
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. 


This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted 
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford. 
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit 
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional 
information and/or to provide feedback. 


&& 


Climate... 
records 
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year 


Kfat 05-25 102:1890 59:1906 68:1890 42:1980 
kfat 05-26 103:1974 66:1946 68:1951 40:1953 
kfat 05-27 104:1974 55:1971 69:1896 46:1998 


Kbfl 05-25 106:1982 58:2008 77:1982 39:1893 
kbfl 05-26 107:1951 68:1998 72:1979 40:1918 
kbfl 05-27 106:1974 66:1971 75:1974 42:1917 
&& 


Hnx watches/warnings/advisories... 
Wind Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 9 PM PDT Tuesday caz095-099. 


&& 


$$ 


Public...mv 
AVN/fw...Dudley 
synopsis...andersen 


Weather.Gov/Hanford