Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
359 am PST sun Feb 1 2015
a ridge of high pressure will bring dry weather and above normal
afternoon temperatures to the central California interior through
at least Thursday with areas of night and morning fog in the San
an upper level ridge of high pressure is building over the West
Coast as a weak low continues to drop south near Baja California. Some high
clouds are spilling over the top of the ridge but skies above
central California are mostly clear this morning...and down
below...areas of dense fog are once again developing across the
San Joaquin Valley. A dense fog advisory is in effect through 11
am this morning. The fog is expected to be rather shallow and
will burn off by late morning leaving another generally sunny day
with temperatures warming to several degrees above climatology. Models
are consistent in maintaining this ridge over the region through
the middle of the week. This will provide a continuation of the
current dry conditions...with mild afternoon temperatures and more
overnight and early morning valley fog episodes.
By Thursday...shortwave energy rotating around a northeast
Pacific upper low is prognosticated to flatten and shift the ridge
slightly eastward. There is some associated moisture which will
bring additional cloud cover and may help to make conditions less
favorable for fog development.
Fairly good model agreement for the end of the week through next
weekend...with additional shortwave energy tracking across the
persistent ridge. A good moisture fetch will accompany this and
will provide precipitation across areas to our north. The southern
extent of the moisture will determine whether we see any precipitation in
our area. For now...our forecast shows chances for measurable
precipitation dipping as far south as Fresno County for next weekend as
suggested by North American ensemble forecasts and wpc quantitative precipitation forecast guidance.
in the San Joaquin Valley...IFR visibilities with areas of
LIFR/vlifr in fog until 17z today. Visibilities will improve
to MVFR in most areas by 21z. IFR conditions will redevelop by
06z Monday with areas of LIFR/vlifr due to fog. VFR conditions
can be expected over the remainder of the central California
interior during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
on Sunday February 1 2015... fireplace/wood stove burning status
is: no burning unless registered in Fresno... Kern... Kings...
Madera... Merced and Tulare counties.
Further information is available at valleyair.Org
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 02-01 73:1991 43:1939 54:1905 25:1950
kfat 02-02 74:1928 44:1903 57:1907 26:1950
kfat 02-03 77:2000 46:1989 50:1995 25:1957
Kbfl 02-01 76:1928 45:1965 55:1963 24:1902
kbfl 02-02 80:1928 44:1971 61:1958 23:1893
kbfl 02-03 79:2009 48:1980 59:1973 25:1923
dense fog advisory until 11 am PST this morning caz089>092.