Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
402 am PDT Friday Sep 19 2014
Synopsis... an approaching low pressure system will lower
temperatures to near normal today. Temperatures will rise above
seasonal normals by Saturday. There will be a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms over the higher sierras through Sunday.
Discussion...satellite water vapor imagery shows a relatively dry
closed upper just off the central California coast while the parent trough
ejects east over then northern rockies. The low will drift south
through the day then park offshore of socal. There is good model
agreement with the low slowly moving northeast over the coast on
Saturday then accelerating over Nevada by Sunday. There is enough
middle level moisture and instability to provide a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain today through
Sunday. Activity is most likely to occur over the southern Sierra
but did bump up probability of precipitation a bit today over the Frazier Park area as the
latest nam12 shows MUCAPE around 500 j/kg this afternoon. Could
see some nocturnal showers or even thunderstorms over the Sierra
Saturday night as the cool pool moves overhead. Short wave ridge
begins to move in Sunday night and will provide dry conditions for
the start of the work week. A deep longwave trough is expected to
approach the coast midweek that could potentially bring precipitation to
central California by Thursday.
A modest onshore remains with breezy conditions and some gusty
winds through and below mountain passes. Gusts are below advisory
thresholds and will trend lower later today. Temperatures cooled
to near seasonable levels yesterday and expect similar readings
today. A slight warmup is in store over the weekend then rising
to several degrees above climatology early next week under the ridge.
A cooling trend is anticipated beginning Wednesday with a return
to near if not below normal temperatures by the end of the week.
a slight chance of thunderstorms will exist over the Sierra Nevada
crest between 18z today and 06z Saturday. Otherwise...VFR conditions
will prevail across the central California interior during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 09-19 105:1922 70:1989 75:1984 44:1978
kfat 09-20 104:1939 73:2007 73:1939 46:1978
kfat 09-21 102:1949 72:1945 74:1983 42:1968
Kbfl 09-19 104:1939 69:1989 73:2009 39:1908
kbfl 09-20 104:1899 73:2007 70:1974 38:1908
kbfl 09-21 105:2003 74:1945 73:1983 37:1908