Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
240 PM PDT Thursday Oct 8 2015
Synopsis...an upper level ridge of high pressure will continue
to build over central California during the next few days and
bring dry weather with a day to day warming trend through
Discussion...upper ridge continuing to strengthen just off the California
coast with high clouds spilling over into our area in a northerly
flow ahead of the ridge. Despite the presence of high
clouds...temperatures have been generally running 3-5 degree f above
yesterday in the San Joaquin Valley and southern Sierra foothills and
5-8 degree f above yesterday in the mountains and Kern County deserts.
12z WRF indicating the ridge will push inland on Friday as a
shortwave pushes into the Pacific northwest with heights/thickness rises
taking place in our area resulting in a continuation of the
ongoing warming trend. High temperatures are expected to be
generally 10 degree f or more above seasonal normals on Friday. The
ridge is expected to remain over central California through the weekend
with the dry and unseasonably warm airmass remaining in place
across our area.
Some uncertainty remains for next week dealing with the eventual
track of the upper cut off low currently centered over eastern
Sonora. The low is prognosticated to retrograde westward underneath the
strengthening ridge over the weekend then track northward near
125w early next week. Relative humidity forecasts are indicating that some middle/upper
level tropcial moisture will be pulled northward ahead of the low
into socal by the middle of next week. Both the 12z operational
runs of the GFS and European model (ecmwf) as well as their ensemble members are
now slower at tracking the low northward. The relative measure of
predictability and moderate trend are indicating improved confidence
that the moisture will not reach our area until early Wednesday.
As a result...we have trended downward on precipitation chances
and sky cover for Tuesday through Wednesday. Enough tropcial
moisture is expected to reach our area by Wednesday night to
mention a slight chance of showers for the mountains...Kern
County deserts and the south end of the San Joaquin Valley on
Wednesday night and Thursday. With little change in airmass
expected at the lower levels...temperatures will remain
unseasonably warm through at least the latter portion of next
Aviation...VFR conditions can be expected throughout the central
California interior during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...none.
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 10-08 99:1980 65:1973 65:2014 35:1949
kfat 10-09 98:1996 65:2013 65:1996 39:1949
kfat 10-10 99:1991 59:2000 62:1936 42:1890
Kbfl 10-08 98:1953 67:1949 70:1910 36:1908
kbfl 10-09 101:1996 67:1930 68:1980 35:1908
kbfl 10-10 101:1991 62:1924 67:1991 34:1908