Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
921 PM PST Friday Dec 20 2013
Update...sky cover increased on the east side of the sj valley
and adjacent foothills in addition to the west slopes of the
Sierra for tonight. Min temperatures bumped up a bit in these areas.
high pressure over the eastern Pacific will bring dry weather to the
central California interior for the next several days with milder
than normal afternoon temperatures.
Discussion...latest infrared satellite imagery shows stubborn
stratocumulus nestled over the Sierra Nevada foothills and west slopes
of the Sierra Nevada...some of which have recently bled into the
extreme east side of the sj valley...particularly in Tulare County.
Otherwise...cirrus clouds continue to stream southward over the
district this evening. The high clouds can be attributed to a very
weak moisture starved upper level disturbance embedded in the
northerly flow aloft over California which will continue through Saturday.
Afterward...an epac ridge will slowly build into California and dominate
our pattern and bring a continuation of dry weather. Maximum temperatures
will trend slightly warmer each day through Tuesday before
leveling off during the middle of next week. The models offer
little if any hope that precipitation will fall for the remainder
of 2013. In fact...2013 will likely go down as one of the driest
calendar years on record in many locations. With regard to
climate records that date back to the late 1800s...it is looking
pretty certain that fat will have its driest calendar year ever.
Since January...only 3.01 inches has officially fallen at fat.
This is seriously drier than the current record of 3.55 inches set
in 1947. In bfl...2013 will rank as the 10th driest year with only
3.43 inches of rain. 1984 beats this calendar year total by only
01 inches...but it is a far cry from the annual rainfall of
1.87 inches that fell in bfl in 1959. So how does this compare to
rainfall in a normal calendar year? According to the 1981-2010
normals...bfl should receive 6.47 inches annually and fat should
receive 11.50 inches annually.
areas of MVFR ceilings can be expected in the Sierra foothills
and the west slopes of the Sierra through 15z Saturday. Otherwise
VFR conditions will prevail across the central California interior
for the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 12-20 70:2005 35:1908 53:1969 24:1897
kfat 12-21 71:1955 34:1998 54:1964 23:1897
kfat 12-22 70:1964 35:1998 57:1955 19:1990
Kbfl 12-20 76:1944 35:1908 54:1964 26:1928
kbfl 12-21 78:1919 36:1998 59:1977 23:1905
kbfl 12-22 76:2005 34:1998 56:1977 20:1990