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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
315 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH 
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SIERRA NEVADA THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE 
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LASTLY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL 
APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF 
VALLEY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STORM SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES OFF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COASTLINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING A COOLING TREND. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO FALL BETWEEN 1 AND 3 DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH IS SLATED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE
LOW 90S THROUGH THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE DESERT WHILE THE
FOOTHILLS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN 2 AND 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN AVERAGE.
ADDITIONALLY...THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND FOOTHILL COMMUNITIES
WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

SIERRA THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY JUST ALONG THE CREST THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST EACH DAY.

BIG CHANGES IN STORE FOR THE WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LOW WILL BE AROUND 100
MILES OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COASTLINE AND BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE VALLEY. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE SURFACE CAPE VALUES PEAKING BETWEEN 300
AND 500 J/KG MAINLY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY...SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY.

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH THIS CHANGE IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN...ESPECIALLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
THERE HAS BEEN MULTI-DAY CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...NCEPS
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE IS INDICATING HIGH PROBABILITY FOR THE UPPER
PATTERN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND THE NAEFS PROBABILITY OF
MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN TRENDING UP THE PAST FEW RUNS
FOR THE VALLEY AND MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION
ON THIS QUICKLY EVOLVING WEATHER PATTERN.

OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND LIFT
NORTHWEST INTO NEVADA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WILL REMAIN UNDER UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH PLANTED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER 
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI RANGE FROM 19Z MONDAY TO 
06Z TUESDAY. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-06      111:2007     83:1903     78:2007     50:1955
KFAT 07-07      111:1905     84:1891     76:2014     53:1903
KFAT 07-08      115:1905     84:1983     81:1896     51:1891

KBFL 07-06      116:1913     85:1955     81:2011     52:1915
KBFL 07-07      114:1905     85:1983     81:1968     46:1903
KBFL 07-08      114:1905     85:1983     79:1907     50:1899
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

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