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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
407 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AIR QUALITY ISSUES SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST FOR THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. A 
COOLING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH BREAKS 
DOWN AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE COAST. ALSO THERE ARE A FEW
CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA.
EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE SIERRA...MAINLY ALONG THE CREST. FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR THIS LAST WEEK OF MAY...A FEW
TRIPLE DIGITS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE SJ
VALLEY AND KERN COUNTY DESERT. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
NEAR RECORD HIGHS.

HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER THE CREST FOR
FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LATEST SHORT-TERM MODELS SHOW A FEW
AREAS OF QPF AND RELATIVELY HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
FURTHER LIMITED BEGINNING FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO
HIGH PRESSURE MORE IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEGINNING SUNDAY...SO ONLY EXPECT A SLIGHT
TICK DOWN IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS DAY.

AFTER A WARM WEEKEND...EXPECT JUNE TO BEGIN WITH NEAR AVERAGE OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BRING
MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING. NO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR CWA THRU AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL OFF THE WEST COAST.
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING WILL MAINLY KEEP PRECIPITATION OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING TUE AND INTO NEXT THU AND WILL MAINLY
REINFORCE RELATIVELY COOLER AIR FROM THE COAST AS A WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. THIS PATTERN IS GENERALLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR MOUNTAIN CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH SOME CUMULUS
BUILDUPS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS OVERALL HIGH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE
DOES SOMEWHAT DECREASE TO SOME RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH MAINLY FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURING IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA...MAINLY ALONG THE 
CREST...THRU 03Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY MAY 29 2015... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO
AND KERN COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 05-28      107:1984     58:1953     69:2009     45:1927
KFAT 05-29      107:1984     61:1996     72:1939     45:1906
KFAT 05-30      109:1910     64:1948     76:1984     45:1988

KBFL 05-28      107:1973     67:1953     72:2009     43:1906
KBFL 05-29      106:1973     70:2011     75:1973     45:1927
KBFL 05-30      108:1910     71:1906     74:1973     41:1906
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BSO
AVN/FW...BSO
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

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