Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
250 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED 
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERE ARE A PAIR OF FORECAST PROBLEMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST IS 
THE SMOKE FROM THE EL PORTAL...DARK HOLE AND FRENCH WILDFIRES. THE 
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES TO THE LOWER 
ELEVATIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SIERRA NEVADA HIGH COUNTRY 
MONDAY HAS LIFTED NORTH INTO NORTHEAST NEVADA. BEHIND THE LOW...AN 
UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY WAS OVER TUOLUMNE COUNTY. THIS VORTICITY IS 
CAUSING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST. 
THIS FLOW IS CHANNELING THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS ON THE 
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA...CARRYING SMOKE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND 
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FLOOR. HAVE ADDED AN AREA OF SMOKE FROM THE 
FRENCH FIRE AND EXTENDED THE SMOKE AS FAR WEST AS HANFORD AS SMOKE 
ALOFT CAN BE SEEN FROM THE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE.

THE SECOND PROBLEM IS THE CONVECTIVE THREAT FOR TODAY OVER THE 
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A DEVELOPING 
CELL OVER THE JUNCTION OF MADERA...MONO AND TUOLUMNE COUNTIES. 
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED JUST OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST FROM 
YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK...RAISING THE RISK OF LIGHTNING STRIKES IN 
THE HIGH COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING SO FAR HAS BEEN CONFINED TO 
YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK NORTHWARD...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER 
SOUTH CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE GENERAL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE 
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA 
AND NEW MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED INTO THE 
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DAILY INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS FORECAST A STEADY GRADUAL WARMING OF 850-MB TEMPERATURES 
OVER THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST CENTRAL 
AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SEE TRIPLE- 
DIGIT HIGHS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE 
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REACH CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT 
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE 
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH 
04Z WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN AFTER 19Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR 
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-29      113:1898     87:1896     78:2003     57:1950
KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895

KBFL 07-29      114:1908     87:1965     86:2003     52:1914
KBFL 07-30      112:1908     67:1955     82:1980     45:1955
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     60:1916     79:1982     55:1905

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...PJ

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations