Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
308 am PDT Sat Aug 23 2014
Synopsis...little change in the weather pattern through the
weekend...with daytime high temperatures near to slightly below
normal. By the beginning of next week...high pressure will begin to
build over the area...resulting in a minor warming trend
Discussion...a typically quiet late August night across the
central California interior in the absense of the monsoon. Skies
are clear with very dry air aloft in place. Over the next couple
of days, forecast models bring the upper low now over the Pacific
northwest southward into the Great Basin and then well east of the
area. Both GFS and European model (ecmwf) models then build a ridge over the west
area temperatures will see some warming.
Meanwhile out over the Pacific the European model (ecmwf) model continues to keep
both the current tropical and the model projected tropical system
will west of the West Coast through the extended forecast. The GFS
on the other hand way out on day 9 tries to bring the remmants of
the second entity northeast towards the northern California coast.
What should be noted is that forecast models are notoriously bad
at forcasting tropical system remnants over the West Coast and
confidence in this projection is low. The rmop (relative measure
of predictability) based on numerous ensemble forecasts shows
little if any threat of a tropical system directly affecting the
forecast area. For now the forecast will remain dry.
VFR conditions will prevail across the central California interior
during the next 24 hours
Air quality issues...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 08-23 112:1891 79:1959 78:1913 51:1960
kfat 08-24 112:1891 81:1930 80:1913 51:1973
kfat 08-25 110:2010 75:1954 79:1913 52:1960
Kbfl 08-23 110:1913 83:1960 80:1982 49:1915
kbfl 08-24 112:1913 82:1963 79:1967 45:1903
kbfl 08-25 111:2010 81:1990 79:1967 48:1903