Scientific Forecaster Discussion

NWS Discussion
			
				

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 
356 am PDT Monday may 20 2013 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will build over central California today with above 
normal temperatures and mainly clear skies. An area of low pressure 
will take hold over the Pacific northwest by Tuesday evening...and 
linger through at least Thursday. A strengthening onshore flow will 
bring cooler temperatures and a few clouds to central California 
Wednesday and Thursday. 


&& 


Discussion... 
a shortwave ridge will build into central California today. A neutral to 
weak offshore flow will bring continued warming today as the thermal 
trough shifts toward the coast. This warming will be shortlived 
however as an upper trough approaches the pacnw. This trough is forecast 
to stall and deepen over the pacnw. 500 mb heights are forecast to fall 
below 550dm along the or/Washington border Wednesday. Across central California...850 mb 
temperatures drop 10-12 degrees/c by Wednesday evening. In addn...the sfo-las surface gradient 
increases to 16-18 mb/S Wednesday...for breezy conds in the sjv and 
windy in the mtns/deserts...especially the Tehachapi Mountains through and below 
passes and canyons. Models close in keeping any precipitation with this 
trough mainly north of Lake Tahoe...so a dry forecast throughout. 


The upper low is forecast to gradually fill beginning Friday...however 
the trough axis across the West Coast states remains q-stationary through 
the weekend. As the low weakens a slow warmup is set to begin Friday 
with temperatures possibly rising back to near normal sun and/or Monday. 




&& 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions will prevail across the central California interior. 


&& 


Air quality issues... 
none. 


&& 


Certainty... 


The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. 
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high. 


This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted 
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford. 
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit 
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional 
information and/or to provide feedback. 


&& 


Climate... 
records 
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year 


Kfat 05-20 102:1947 61:1921 71:1897 44:1962 
kfat 05-21 104:1892 56:1933 69:2001 42:1975 
kfat 05-22 104:1967 67:2010 71:1892 43:1909 


Kbfl 05-20 103:1942 65:1923 70:2001 42:1902 
kbfl 05-21 103:1988 65:1903 71:2001 42:1902 
kbfl 05-22 102:2001 68:2010 73:1967 36:1903 
&& 


Hnx watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Public...Bingham 
AVN/fw...ds 
synopsis...Bingham 


Weather.Gov/Hanford