Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
329 am PST sun Feb 14 2016
Synopsis...high pressure will continue to bring dry weather to
the central California interior through Tuesday with patchy night
and morning fog in the San Joaquin Valley. A low pressure system
will bring rain and High Sierra snow to the area Wednesday night
Discussion...amplifying ridge off the California coast is providing
central California with a dry northwest flow aloft. Some upslope low
clouds have been noted in the Tulare County foothills and along
some of the valley facing slopes in the Kern County mountains.
Metars and webcams indicating that a few patches of fog have
formed in the San Joaquin Valley...but the fog has been less
prevalent than it has been the previous few mornings. The
strengthening offshore ridge will result in another sunny
afternoon for our area with above normal temepratures after low
clouds and patchy fog Burns off by late morning.
06z WRF indicating that the ridge will build inland tonight and
on presidents day keeping our area under a dry airmass with
temperatures becoming unseasonably warm once again as heights and
diurnal thicknesses rise. Patchy fog will once again be present
in the San Joaquin Valley due to clear skies...light winds and
inversion conditions but will burn off by late morning. The
wamring trend will continue on Tuesday with the ridge continuing
to shift inland resulting in a southwest flow over central California.
The medium range models have come into fairly good agreement with
a low pressure system that is prognosticated to reach the norcal coast
by Wednesday night and push inland across norcal on Thursday.
This system will bring increased clouds to our area by Wednesday
as middle/upper level relative humidity/S increase. The deeper moisture and strong
dynamics will brush our area as this system is now prognosticated to take
a more northerly track than earlier advertised. It is still
prognosticated to provide our area with a period of precipitation
Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Snow levels are prognosticated to
be around 7000 feet in the southern Sierra Nevada on Wednesday
night lowering to 5000 to 5500 feet by midday Thursday in the
cooler Post-frontal airmass. This system will also bring a period
of increased west winds to the Sierra ridges as well as more
seasonable temperatures across the area by Thursday. Quantitative precipitation forecast forecasts
for the Wednesday night through Thursday period are indicating up
to a quarter inch of rain in the San Joaquin Valley...up to a
half inch of rain in the southern Sierra foothills and up to an
inch of liquid precipitation over the southern Sierra Nevada.
The models are also now converging on the idea of high pressure
returning to central California by Friday and slowly strengthening over
the region through next weekend. This will keep the storm track
north of our area and provide for another period of dry weather
and warmer than normal temperatures for our area.
Aviation...in the San Joaquin Valley...areas of MVFR in haze
with local IFR/LIFR in mist/fog possible until 18z Sunday. Local
MVFR in low clouds along the Sierra foothills. Otherwise...VFR
conditions will prevail across the central California interior
during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...on Sunday February 14 2016...
fireplace/wood stove burning status is: no burning unless
registered in Fresno... Kern... Madera and Tulare counties.
Further information is available at valleyair.Org
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 02-14 79:1924 46:1903 55:1986 25:1949
kfat 02-15 79:1977 49:1990 58:1902 24:1990
kfat 02-16 80:1943 48:1956 56:1957 27:1956
Kbfl 02-14 78:2014 47:1990 55:1986 21:1903
kbfl 02-15 84:1977 50:1911 56:1982 21:1903
kbfl 02-16 88:1902 46:1919 55:1982 22:1903