Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
214 PM PDT Wednesday Jun 3 2015
near normal temperatures will continue through the upcoming weekend.
A chance of mainly mountain showers and thunderstorms will begin on
Thursday and continue through the weekend.
a band of high clouds moved quickly east out of the region this
morning leaving just scattered stratocumulus and cumulus clouds
over the Sierra this afternoon. Satellite imagery shows another
area of high clouds rapidly approaching from the northwest ahead
of a shortwave dropping south along the West Coast. This shortwave
will form a closed low over the central California coast on Thursday
morning then move south along the coast through Friday before
moving inland and weakening over Nevada during the weekend.
Ahead of this system...breezy conditions can be expected in the
San Joaquin Valley and through and below passes in the Kern County
mountains and desert through tonight.
While there does not appear to be an abundance of moisture with
the low at this time...there will be in increase in instability to
provide a chance of showers and thunderstorms over the southern
Sierra beginning Thursday. The threat spreads down to the Kern
County mountains and desert on Friday as the low moves south.
In the meantime...former hurricane now Tropical Storm Andres
continues to sit near 20n/125w and is forecast to continue
weakening. Models continue to indicate that remnant moisture from
Andres will be entrained in southwest flow and be steered over
Arizona...staying to our southeast. With the upper low continuing
to be centered just east of Kern County Saturday morning shifting
to near Las Vegas Saturday afternoon...have continued with the
chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly over the mountain
areas. The forecasted position of the low will bring an easterly
flow across the Sierra Nevada which could lead to a few
thunderstorms drifting into the eastern parts of the San Joaquin
Valley. So have left a slight chance thunderstorms in the valley
for Saturday. On Sunday the easterly flow will be weaker with the
chances of thunderstorms making into the valley much less...but
have left a slight chance along the far east side along the
Additional short wave energy is expected off the Southern
California coast next Monday...weakening as it moves inland into
Southern California by Wednesday. Have left slight chance probability of precipitation
over the Sierra Nevada Monday through Wednesday. Hurricane Blanca
off the Mexico coast (13n/105w) has strengthened to a major
hurricane today. NHC forecasts Blanca to move north-northwest towards the
southern tip of Baja California California by Sunday. Extended models show a good
surge of moisture into Arizona and Southern California Tuesday and
Wednesday. While it is still a long ways out...will have to watch
it as it has the potential for impacting central California if it
shifts a bit farther north.
As far as temperatures go...expected them to lower a few degrees
Thursday to slightly below normal as the upper low moves in.
While cloud cover makes for a difficult forecast...a minor upward
trend is expected Friday through the weekend. Temperatures are
forecast to be a few degrees above early June normals by Monday...
lower to middle 90s across lower elevations.
areas MVFR conditions in showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra
Nevada after 20z Thursday. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail
throughout the central California interior during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 06-03 107:1912 68:1999 72:1937 44:1908
kfat 06-04 105:1996 66:2011 73:1912 46:1908
kfat 06-05 107:1981 57:1894 72:1926 48:1956
Kbfl 06-03 109:1960 67:1999 78:1970 40:1908
kbfl 06-04 107:1957 70:1999 77:1960 41:1908
kbfl 06-05 108:1981 66:1933 75:1981 43:1908