Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
309 am PDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014
dry weather and warmer temperatures can be expected across the
central California interior today through Saturday as an upper
level ridge of high pressure dominates the pattern. The second
half of the Labor Day weekend will trend slightly cooler as an
upper level trough of low pressure settles into the Great Basin.
Discussion...temperatures are running slightly higher this
morning throughout much of the central California interior compared to
24 hours ago. This is a trend that will continue for the next
couple of days as a ridge of high pressure aloft resides over
California. Temperatures will warm to seasonable levels this afternoon
under sunny skies. Thursday and Friday will become even warmer
as the ridge remains parked off the Southern California coast. High
temperatures in the hottest locales of the sj valley and the Kern
County desert will top the century mark Thursday and Friday.
Temperatures will remain above normal over the central California
interior Saturday even though the high pressure ridge weakens
off the Southern California coast. In fact...beachgoers might notice
a strengthening seabreeze along the central California coast as early
as Saturday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front to
our north. The cold front will slip rather quietly southward
through our County Warning Area Saturday night accompanied by high clouds.
The upper level trough associated with this front will settle
into the Great Basin this weekend and put California back under a dry
northwesterly flow aloft similar to what we started with this
week. Temperatures Sunday and Labor Day will return to seasonable
levels and perhaps slightly lower than normal north of Fresno
County if a modest onshore flow brings a deep enough marine layer
into the sj valley later this weekend.
The operational GFS and ecm are polarized in their solutions on
days 6 and 7. While both agree there will be a high amplitude
ridge over the eastern Pacific by the middle of next week...
there is large disparity of the strength of the downstream trough
over the western Continental U.S.. the GFS brings more energy southward into
the Pacific northwest and carves a trough out over the Great Basin by next
Wednesday while the ecm forecasts the epac ridge to dominate
along the West Coast. If the ecm is right...central California is
in for a big warmup by the middle of next week while the GFS
forecasts a continuation of an onshore flow with neutral temperature
trends during the same period. The ensembles seem to be leaning
toward the GFS solution with a fairly weak zonal flow aloft prognosticated
over California rather than any pronounced ridging. Whatever the case...
dry weather will rule through day 7.
VFR conditions will prevail across the central California interior
during the next 24 hours
Air quality issues...
on Wednesday August 27 2014... unhealthy for sensitive groups in
Further information is available at valleyair.Org
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 08-27 109:1924 80:1895 78:1913 51:1895
kfat 08-28 108:1924 78:1953 77:1894 52:1907
kfat 08-29 109:1915 79:2010 76:1915 52:1895
Kbfl 08-27 111:1931 84:1991 77:1988 45:1903
kbfl 08-28 109:1944 82:1953 78:1972 48:1903
kbfl 08-29 109:1915 79:1953 78:1931 45:1903