Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
215 am PST Friday Dec 13 2013
high pressure will build over the area this weekend for continued
dry conditions and a warming trend.
weak trough of low pressure moving through is kicking the closed
low over socal east into Arizona at this time. Steady temperature trends are
expected today with high clouds associated with the trough
clearing this am. Upper ridge building into the area this weekend
with the cold snap now behind US and warmer temperatures in store through
midweek next week.
Temperatures are running 1 to 4 degrees warmer than this time
yesterday and will continue the gradual warm up. GFS and NAM are
bringing in high and middle clouds from time to time over the next
several days. So partly cloudy to mostly sunny should cover it.
Looking at the naefs ensemble anomaly guidance...near record
maximum temperatures are in store for Fresno on Tuesday and possibly even
Wednesday. 2 to 3 Standard deviations from a normalized h850 temperature
are expected across the cencal interior with guidance as warm as
the lower 70s across the sjv. Current records for fat are 70 on
12/17 and 71 on 12/18. So lower 70s is the record for fat. Bfl
record value is 75 both days and is also in jeopardy of being tied
Closed low developing off the coast on Tuesday will open up and
move inland on Wednesday night as a precursor to a much deeper trough
that is forecast to move through on Thursday with temperatures
dropping once again. Clouds are forecast to increase with no
chance of probability of precipitation indicated at this time.
San Joaquin Valley...local IFR visibilities in fog from 10z to 18z
Friday. Otherwise VFR with local MVFR visibilities in haze/fog.
Mountains/deserts...VFR conditions for the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
on Friday December 13 2013... unhealthy for sensitive groups in
Kern... Kings and Tulare counties. Fireplace/wood stove burning
is prohibited in Fresno... Kern... Kings and Tulare counties.
Further information is available at valleyair.Org
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 12-13 72:1929 32:1972 54:1929 23:1940
kfat 12-14 74:1929 32:1972 52:1922 21:1967
kfat 12-15 76:1958 39:1963 54:1962 25:1975
Kbfl 12-13 79:1998 41:1972 54:1933 20:1901
kbfl 12-14 80:1958 36:1972 53:1950 20:1901
kbfl 12-15 79:1958 40:1992 51:2006 19:1901