Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
200 PM PDT Tuesday may 21 2013
Synopsis...
high pressure will move east of the region today as a deep cool low
pressure area develops over the Pacific northwest. A dry cold front
will sweep across central California this afternoon and evening with
increasing winds. Much cooler Wednesday with below normal
temperatures. Continued cool and breezy Thursday before a slow
warmup begins for the weekend.
&&
Discussion...
satellite loops show the upper-level trough moving onshore into the
Pacific northwest this afternoon. The marine layer has deepened in
response to the approaching trough...and at 1934z /1243 PDT/ was
over 2600 feet deep at Fort Ord. Marine air was pushing through the
Sacramento Delta...with 21z /1300 PDT/ winds at Travis AFB from the
southwest at 30 miles per hour gusting to 38 miles per hour. Marine air also was spilling
through Pacheco Pass...with gusts to 33 miles per hour. Temperatures in the
northern San Joaquin Valley were down as much as 8 degrees from 21z
Monday as cooler air pushes up valley.
850-mb temperatures over Fresno are forecast to reach 17 c this
afternoon...then plunge to 5.5-6 c by 18z /1100 PDT/ Thursday on the
GFS and NAM-12...and 7 c on the European model (ecmwf). This cold airmass will drop
central and southern San Joaquin Valley high temperatures into the
70s Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will continue below normal
Friday into the weekend...and likely not return to normal until the
end of the extended forecast period in warming ahead of another
trough.
Winds will increase over the Kern County mountains and deserts ahead
of the trough and continue Wednesday and Wednesday night as the
winds align with favorably oriented passes and canyons through the
Kern County mountains. The Wind Advisory for the passes and areas
below has been extended until 12z /0500 PDT/ Thursday morning.
As the main upper-level trough lifts into the northern rockies
Friday...a short-wave rotating around the parent low is forecast to
move into California...with the GFS bringing another trough into the
state Saturday...and yet another short-wave into the state Sunday.
These short-waves will keep temperatures slightly below normal
through the Memorial Day Holiday weekend...with breezy conditions at
times over the west side of the San Joaquin Valley and over the
mountains and deserts.
&&
Aviation...
wind gusts of 35 knots or greater can be expected along the
Sierra crest through 18z Wednesday and through and
below the mountain passes of Kern County through 12z Thursday.
Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail across the central
California interior.
&&
Air quality issues...
on Tuesday may 21 2013...unhealthy for sensitive groups in Kern
County and Sequoia National Park and Forest.
Further information is available at valleyair.Org
&&
Certainty...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
&&
Climate...
records
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 05-21 104:1892 56:1933 69:2001 42:1975
kfat 05-22 104:1967 67:2010 71:1892 43:1909
kfat 05-23 103:1967 65:1916 71:2000 44:1960
Kbfl 05-21 103:1988 65:1903 71:2001 42:1902
kbfl 05-22 102:2001 68:2010 73:1967 36:1903
kbfl 05-23 107:1904 67:2010 73:2000 44:1903
&&
Hnx watches/warnings/advisories...
Wind Advisory until 5 am PDT Thursday for the Kern County
mountains and deserts /caz095-098-099/.
&&
$$
Public...Sanger
AVN/fw...bean
synopsis...pj
Weather.Gov/Hanford
