Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
552 am PDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015
a southeasterly flow aloft will bring monsoonal moisture into
central California today through Friday with increased cloud
cover and isolated to scattered thunderstorms...especially
over the mountains and desert.
Update...sky cover was increased and maximum temperatures were lowered for
today across Kern County due to morning convection. A Flood
Advisory was also issued for the Kern County mountains and desert
and is in effect until 10:45 am PDT.
Previous discussion... /issued 305 am PDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015/
nocturnal thunderstorms developed over southeastern San Bernardino
County overnight and have spread westward the last few hours.
Thunderstorms could reach the eastern Kern County desert by daybreak
and continue into the Kern and southern Tulare County mountains this
morning with a thunderstorm or two drifting into the southern San
Joaquin Valley. This has led to an increase in probability of precipitation for this morning
and the addition of slight chance probability of precipitation to the southern half of the
San Joaquin Valley this afternoon and evening.
The models had been forecasting a deeper monsoonal moisture surge
into at least the southern part of the central California interior
for today...but the observed convection has been stronger than the
models had forecast.
As expected temperatures warmed to well above normal Tuesday with
both Bakersfield and Fresno reaching 106 degrees. Residual warmth
and cirrus over central California have kept overnight temperatures
up...resulting in a warm start to today.
Clouds associated with the monsoonal surge will make the temperature
forecast tricky the next few days. The forecast of well above normal
temperatures today was based on mostly clear skies over the San
Joaquin Valley. Should the cloud cover be more extensive than
originally thought...temperatures could be capped. It is possible
that Merced could be warmer than Bakersfield today as Merced may not
see the thick cloud cover that will blanket areas to the south.
The upper-level ridge is forecast to remain over the Great Basin
through at least Thursday night...keeping a southeast flow aloft
over California and continuing to advect monsoonal moisture into the
state. As a result...thunderstorms will be possible over much of the
central California interior the next two days.
The ridge is forecast to weaken beginning Friday. By Sunday...the
flow aloft is forecast to turn southerly...and then southwesterly
for the first part of next week as an upper-level low west of the
central California coast becomes the dominant weather feature.
isolated to scattered thunderstorms can be expected over the
mountains and desert through tonight with local MVFR ceilings over
the higher terrain. A few thunderstorms could drift into the San
Joaquin Valley and adjacent foothills from Fresno County southward
today through early this evening. Otherwise...VFR conditions will
prevail throughout the central California interior during the next
Air quality issues...
on Wednesday July 1 2015... unhealthy in Fresno and Kern counties.
Unhealthy for sensitive groups in Kings... Madera... Merced and
Tulare counties and Sequoia National Park and Forest.
Further information is available at valleyair.Org
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 07-01 114:1891 82:1982 80:1934 53:1975
kfat 07-02 110:1942 78:1916 78:2013 51:1956
kfat 07-03 110:2001 78:1910 79:2013 50:1901
Kbfl 07-01 115:1950 83:1911 81:2013 50:1913
kbfl 07-02 114:1950 80:1902 83:2013 51:1913
kbfl 07-03 111:1942 85:1978 81:2013 48:1902
Flood Advisory for the Kern County mountains and desert until