Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
105 PM PDT Tuesday Sep 30 2014
Synopsis...a warming trend will continue through the week and
into the weekend as high pressure builds over the area. By
Thursday...daytime high temperatures through the valley will reach
above normal values with this trend continuing into at least early
Discussion...sunny skies are prevailing across our area today
which is under a dry northwest flow aloft as we are situated in
between an upper trough over The Rockies and an offshore ridge.
Temperatures across our area are generally running 3-5 degree f
above yesterday at this time.
Successive WRF runs have picked up on an upper shortwave that is
prognosticated to drop southeast near the Sierra crest tonight. Although
relative humidity forecasts are not indicating much moisture with it...it will
provide for enough lift and instability for a few showers near the
southern Sierra crest tonight. It/S main impact however...will be
to slow down the ongoing warming trend for one day.
However...following the departure of this upper shortwave on
Wednesday...the offshore ridge will build inland on Wednesday
night and Thursday and provide our area with a prolonged period of
unseasonably warm and dry conditions. An offshore gradient will
prevail on Thursday and Friday which will elevate the fire danger
potential over the Kern County mountains...however...at this
time...winds are not expected to be strong enough and durations of
low humidities are not expected to be long enough to warrant the
issuance of any fire weather highlights for our area.
The medium range models and their ensemble members are in
excellent agreement in keeping the ridge in place over the western
Continental U.S. Through the weekend and into the early portion of next
week. As a result...dry weather and unseasonably warm temperatures
are expected to prevail across our area through at least the
middle of next week.
Aviation... VFR conditions will prevail throughout the central California
interior during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...none.
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 09-30 101:2010 56:1894 71:2010 37:1950
kfat 10-01 100:1987 65:1894 70:2010 39:1971
kfat 10-02 101:2012 58:1916 71:2010 40:1891
Kbfl 09-30 102:1978 69:1971 72:2010 40:1908
kbfl 10-01 103:1980 65:1912 77:2010 37:1908
kbfl 10-02 103:1917 63:2006 72:2010 36:1908