Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
345 PM PDT Thursday Aug 27 2015
Update...updated air quality issues.
mainly dry weather can be expected over interior central California
for the next several days. Temperatures will remain near to slightly
above normal through Friday as a ridge of high pressure lingers over
the region. By the weekend...temperatures will lower to slightly
below average...and locally breezy conditions are expected as a low
pressure system impacts the region.
some cumulus clouds and smoke over the Sierra Nevada. Otherwise
sunny across central California. Little change in temperatures
with a mix in trends area wide. More widespread cumulus
development today over the High Sierra due to remnant monsoon
moisture. However think little potential for storm development as
the upstream 12z sounding at Vandenberg shows a stable temperature
An upper-level ridge remains centered over the Desert Southwest
and northern Mexico...while a trough was along the Pacific
northwest coast. Little change in the pattern will lead to near
persistence temperatures over the next 24 hours. A degree or two
cooler Friday as the trough approaches the ncal coast.
The latest operational models and ensembles are in good agreement
with the synoptic pattern for much of the forecast period. Onshore
gradients will strenghten Saturday as the trough pushes into
ncal. Expect gusty winds to develop below the coastal mountains
passes along the west side of the valley during the early morning
Saturday. The stronger wind potential will shift south towards
the passes of the Kern County mountains and desert Saturday
afternoon. The dry soil conditions could result in blowing dust in
favorable Windy Mountain passes especially through the Diablo and
temblor mountains. Models forecast a band of moisture reaching the
Central Valley Saturday morning moving south into the tehachapis
Saturday night. Dynamic lift will be minimal as the trough crosses
central California. Little potential for precipitation but the trough will
usher in a significant cooling trend.
The cool temperatures will continue Sunday as another short wave
moving through the Pacific northwest maintains the cool trough over California.
Models show a upper trough will remain anchor along the coast
through midweek. Although the upper trough will be weakening
resulting in a slight warming trend across central California.
Operational models forecast for another system moving into the pacnw
for the end of next week. This could extend the cool temperatures
into next weekend.
local MVFR/IFR visibilities can be expected in the foothills and
higher elevations of the Sierra due to smoke. VFR conditions will
prevail elsewhere across the central California interior during the
next 24 hours.
Air quality issues... on Friday August 28 2015... unhealthy for
sensitive groups in Fresno County and Sequoia National Park and
Further information is available at valleyair.Org
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 08-27 109:1924 80:1895 78:1913 51:1895
kfat 08-28 108:1924 78:1953 77:1894 52:1907
kfat 08-29 109:1915 79:2010 76:1915 52:1895
Kbfl 08-27 111:1931 84:1991 80:1909 45:1903
kbfl 08-28 109:1944 71:1911 78:1972 48:1903
kbfl 08-29 109:1915 77:1911 85:1909 45:1903