Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
315 PM PST sun Nov 29 2015
low pressure over the Great Basin will continue to move east out of
central California region overnight. High pressure will then prevail
through Wednesday before the next Pacific weather system moves into
California on Thursday.
Discussion...sunny skies prevail throughout the central California
interior this afternoon as the large upper low from the Great Basin
to The Rockies continues to slowly shift east. A thin band of high
clouds off the coast may move in tonight but should not be enough
to inhibit cooling as it passes through. Lows are expected to fall
into the upper 20s to lower 30s again across much of the central
and southern San Joaquin Valley tonight. Have issued another freeze
warning for the sjv tonight.
A weakening shortwave trough off the coast will move inland Monday afternoon
and evening. The ensembles continue to show a dry passage of this wave.
Upper ridging builds moves across Tuesday and Wednesday then shifts
east as a stronger epac trough approaches the coast. The models are
not in agreement still with the timing or southern extent of this
trough. The GFS brings precipitation into the district Thursday afternoon
while the European model (ecmwf) is a little slower with a Thursday evening arrival.
The Gem is even slower and is the driest solution with a weakening
front moving in on Friday morning. Have made some minor adjustments
with chance probability of precipitation over the central sjv and likely in the Sierra from
Yosemite to Kings Canyon np. The models continue to show the brunt
of the storm affecting northern California and have cut back on quantitative precipitation forecast across
cencal. Snow levels will be higher than the previous storm as well.
The trough moves east on Friday with a few upslope showers possible.
Ridging returns for dry conditions next weekend.
Light winds will continue through Wednesday then increasing onshore
flow will result in breezy to gusty conditions Thursday and Friday.
Temperatures will trend slightly warmer the next few days with highs
climbing to a little above normal...then a cooler air mass moves in
again to end the week.
areas of MVFR in mist and haze with local IFR/LIFR in fog in the San
Joaquin Valley between 09z and 18z Monday. Otherwise...VFR conditions
will prevail across the central California interior during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
on Monday November 30 2015... fireplace/wood stove burning status
is: no burning unless registered in Fresno... Kern... Madera...
Merced and Tulare counties.
Further information is available at valleyair.Org
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 11-29 76:1947 47:1905 58:1901 26:1975
kfat 11-30 77:1924 44:1972 57:2012 29:1906
kfat 12-01 76:1926 40:1905 56:2012 29:1906
Kbfl 11-29 80:1924 51:2006 57:1938 28:1919
kbfl 11-30 83:1924 46:1965 54:2012 28:1907
kbfl 12-01 79:1903 44:1972 57:1909 27:2004
freeze warning from 2 am to 10 am PST Monday caz089>092.