Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
424 PM PDT Monday Jun 29 2015
Synopsis...monsoonal moisture continues to flow over the area
producing showers and isolated thunderstorms to the desert and
mountain/foothill areas through Thursday. Otherwise partly cloudy
skies and above average temperatures continue to persist.
southeast flow around the periphery of a high pressure area
centered near The Four Corners region continues to pull moisture
across central California. As a result...scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms have again developed over the southern Sierra
Nevada. Short term high res model suggests the shower and
thunderstorm activity will affect the mountain and desert areas
through this evening...dissipating with the loss of daytime
heating. Associated passing clouds have not significantly impacted
temperatures...with highs on track to top out a few degrees above
climatology...including several locations reaching triple digits.
The large middle/upper high pressure area is prognosticated to drift
westward...creating a less favorable moisture flow over our area
but still sufficient for a slight chance of mountain and desert
convection...especially in the High Sierra. The retrograding high
will also bring hotter temperatures for the next couple of days.
With the increased humidity...the Summer heat will be more
oppressive. Heat index readings at a few valley locations are
expected to reach 105 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday while
overnight readings stay near 80 degrees Tuesday nights. These
conditions are not widespread enough to trigger an excessive heat
warning...however everyone should be alert to the danger of these
Models forecast the upper level high to slide eastward again by
Thursday...which will bring increased moisture and cloud cover.
Temperatures will be a few degrees lower and chances for
convection will be increased. Some guidance such as the naefs &&
suggest a slight chance for showers or thunderstorms in the San
Joaquin Valley as well...but confidence is not high enough to
include this in the forecast at this time.
Expect continued hot but drier conditions after Thursday as the
upper high continues to drift eastward and flow turns more
southwesterly. Temperatures should run a few to several degrees
above climatology through the Holiday weekend...with maximum temperatures in the
valley and desert areas running within a couple of degrees...plus
or minus...of the century mark.
local MVFR conditions and mountain obscurations in isolated
thunderstorms through this evening and again after 18z Tuesday.
Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail throughout the central California
interior during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
on Tuesday June 30 2015... unhealthy for sensitive groups in
Fresno... Kern and Tulare counties and Sequoia National Park and
Further information is available at valleyair.Org
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 06-29 110:1891 76:2011 78:2013 49:1963
kfat 06-30 112:1891 68:1982 79:2013 53:1970
kfat 07-01 114:1891 82:1982 80:1934 53:1975
Kbfl 06-29 112:1901 78:1991 79:2013 47:1907
kbfl 06-30 111:1950 78:1997 82:2009 44:1907
kbfl 07-01 115:1950 83:1911 81:2013 50:1913