Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
129 PM PDT Tuesday may 5 2015
other than isolated afternoon and early evening thunderstorms along
the Sierra crest...dry weather will prevail over the district
through Wednesday. A winterlike storm system will bring much cooler
weather and a chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday through
Friday...especially over the higher terrain.
a few thunderstorms beginning to build over the High Sierra this
afternoon. Expect them to be more limited than yesterday but
continuing into the evening hours. Expect to see isolated
thunderstorms near the crest of the Sierra again on Wednesday
afternoon and evening.
An upper low is near the coast of Washington today and models are
consistent in digging it slowly southward Wednesday...reaching
northern California Wednesday night and into central California
Thursday. The low will bring cooler temperatures to the region
along with increased showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra
with at least a slight chance elsewhere across the County warning forecast area as we
become a bit more unstable. Temperatures in the San Joaquin Valley
will only be in the 70s Thursday and Friday with temperatures in
the Sierra Nevada being cold enough to drop snow levels down to
near 6000 feet Thursday into Friday. Not expecting a lot of
snow...but could 1-3 inches below 8000 feet with possibly as much
as 6 inches at the higher elevations.
The best chance of thunderstorms in the San Joaquin Valley will be
Thursday afternoon and evening as the low moves overhead. By
Friday expect the low to shift a bit farther south and east...so
that the thunderstorms are limited back to the mountains and
desert areas. However...a few showers could persist in the San
Joaquin Valley on Friday as conditions remain unsettled.
By the weekend...the upper low will move east of the area and
bring a return of high pressure. Left a slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms over the higher elevations of the Sierra on
Saturday afternoon/evening due to lingering moisture and
instability...otherwise expect mainly dry conditions for the
weekend and early next week. Temperatures are expected to trend
back upward during this period...and will likely return to a few
degrees above average by Sunday. Confidence in the extended
period...however...remains medium due to some model differences
and run to run consistency.
scattered thunderstorms will be possible over the southern Sierra
Nevada through 05z Wednesday...and again after 20z Wednesday.
Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail across the central
California interior for the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 05-05 99:1990 57:1921 65:1989 36:1975
kfat 05-06 100:1987 58:1921 69:1992 41:1975
kfat 05-07 103:1987 56:1905 69:1989 36:1965
Kbfl 05-05 100:1990 61:1932 69:1909 42:1930
kbfl 05-06 104:1987 55:1921 71:1989 42:1988
kbfl 05-07 101:1987 61:1930 70:1989 42:1965