Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
253 am PST Thursday Jan 29 2015
a low pressure system will bring a chance of showers to mainly the
mountains and desert Thursday through Saturday morning. Otherwise
expect dry conditions with near to slightly above average
temperatures through the next several days with patchy fog through
the San Joaquin Valley each night and early morning.
Discussion...patchy dense fog continues to impact the San Joaquin
Valley extending from Merced south through Porterville. The hrrr
indicates improved visibilities between 19z and 20z...with the
dense fog advisory expiring at 20z. High confidence as the hrrr
has been performing well with the dense fog in the past few days.
An upper trough will move slowly northeast toward the region
today...bringing abundant high level clouds and light rain and
snow showers to the Sierra Nevada. On Friday the upper trough will
close off and become an upper low...centered over Southern
California. Light rain and snow showers will once again be
possible over the Sierra Nevada and surrounding foothills...with
rain also possible over the Kern County mountain and desert. If
rain/snow does fall...only light accumulation is
possible...generally between a few hundredths to near a tenth of
an inch. Snow levels will be high with this storm given its
southern origin...with snow levels generally between 7500 and 8000
The high res nmm...arw...and the NAM are all in good agreement
with the Sierra Nevada receiving light
precipitation...however...there are some timing and location
differences with the precipitation for Kern County. High
confidence for the Sierra Nevada precipitation but only medium
confidence for Kern County.
The upper low will shift south southeast into southern Arizona and
Mexico Saturday into Sunday...allowing high pressure to build over
the region. This will result in above normal daytime high
temperatures and dry weather for the region. Patchy fog will be
possible over the valley each night and morning through the end of
next week...especially given the light rain the valley received a
few days ago with high pressure dominating the region.
in the San Joaquin Valley...areas LIFR with local vlifr in fog
through 20z Thursday. Local mountain obscurations in showers after
18z Thursday. Otherwise VFR conditions for the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
on Thursday January 29 2015... fireplace/wood stove burning status
is: no burning unless registered in Fresno... Kern... Kings...
Madera... Merced and Tulare counties.
Further information is available at valleyair.Org
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 01-29 73:1960 43:2002 55:1911 24:1902
kfat 01-30 74:1984 41:1923 56:1911 25:1946
kfat 01-31 75:1984 39:1969 55:1963 26:1949
Kbfl 01-29 74:1986 42:2002 54:1986 27:1903
kbfl 01-30 77:1911 44:1951 60:1911 23:1902
kbfl 01-31 82:1984 45:1969 57:1963 23:1902
dense fog advisory until noon PST today caz089>092.