Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
402 PM PDT Sat Sep 20 2014
there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms over the
southern Sierra Nevada through the weekend as a weather system
moves through the region. A weak upper ridge will return with dry
conditions and warmer temperatures early next week...followed by a
cooldown as another system moves in.
Discussion...the upper low continues to spin near the
central/Southern California coast. Main activity in difluent
region ahead of the low is east of our area but a few showers have
popped up over the Sierra this afternoon. Temperatures today are
on track to top out just a tad above normal.
Models are in good agreement as they track the low slowly
northeastward...over the Great Basin by Sunday afternoon.
Thunderstorm chances will linger over the Sierra through tomorrow
afternoon as the low tracks overhead. Temperatures will continue
to run slightly above climatology. Slight ridging is then prognosticated over
the region by Monday ahead of a developing low in the northeast
Pacific.Dry conditions will then be in store with warming
temperatures through Wednesday as the developing low approaches.
Models diverge a bit in the strength and trajectory of the
incoming trough for the latter part of the week. North American
ensemble runs suggest precipitation chances with the passing trough
will remain mainly north of our area. Though precipitation chances
do not yet look impressive...temperatures will cool with the
passage of the trough...lowering to several degrees below
seasonal normals by the end of the week.
a chance of thunderstorms will continue over the southern Sierra
Nevada crest through 06z Sunday. MVFR is possible in smoke along
the south end and east side of the San Joaquin Valley.
Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail across the central California
interior during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 09-20 104:1939 73:2007 73:1939 46:1978
kfat 09-21 102:1949 72:1945 74:1983 42:1968
kfat 09-22 104:1949 67:1923 72:1999 41:1968
Kbfl 09-20 104:1899 73:2007 70:1974 38:1908
kbfl 09-21 105:2003 74:1945 73:1983 37:1908
kbfl 09-22 105:2003 70:1923 74:1949 40:1908