Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
955 PM PDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014
updated high temperatures Thursday.
high pressure will return to the area and result in above-normal
temperatures for the remainder of the week with dry conditions
expected. Cooler this weekend as a dry low pressure trough moves
high temperatures in the central and southern San Joaquin Valley
today were warmer than expected...with the warmest spots hitting
triple digits. Arvin and Wasco reached 102 degrees...and Coalinga
had a high of 101. Bakersfield reached 99 degrees this afternoon...
and Fresno hit 98.
The 00z GFS and NAM-12 are in good agreement with 850-mb
temperatures over the central and southern San Joaquin Valley
warming 1.0-1.5 c by Thursday afternoon...and 500-mb heights
remaining above 5910 meters. Based on this...it looks like
Thursday will be about 2 degrees warmer than today...with both
Bakersfield and Fresno hitting triple digits.
The 00z models continue the trend of dropping an upper-level
trough into the Pacific northwest Friday...pushing the ridge
offshore and lowering 500-mb heights over central California below
5910 meters. Based on the latest models...it is likely that
Thursday will be the warmest day of the forecast period.
Previous discussion... /issued 415 PM PDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014/
while a building ridge of high pressure dominated the region
today...satellite imagery shows Hurricane Marie approaching
25n/125w or about 800 miles southwest of San Diego. This ridge of
higher pressure...helping to push the upper low out of the Great
Basin and more toward the mid-west...will help to clear out much
of the region and place the area under dry conditions. The ridge
will also steer Marie more northwestward and remain over an area
between California and Hawaii. Therefore...while the upper low
pushing into the middle-west will draw in some of Marie/S moisture...
the ridge pattern will cut off the moisture tap before flowing
into most of California. Yet...the lack of storm will also allow
temperatures to heat up as plus 100 degree-f readings could be felt
By Saturday...models are in general agreement with progging
another trough to push in from the Gulf of Alaska. While most of
the uncertainty lies in just how deep the trough will be...models
seem to have a good handle on the timing of its introduction into
the Pacific northwest/northern California. Models still progging
this trough as an inside slider and mainly affecting the northwest
and the Great Basin. Therefore...will not introduce a mention of
precipitation with this event. The trough will allow for a cooling trend
as well as some thick high cirrus clouds. However...the lack of
any significant lifting dynamics will not allow for more then a
very slight chance of precipitation near the Sierra Nevada crest.
Will expect the cooling to continue into Sunday before conditions
begin to moderate early next week. By Monday...models show the
trough exiting the region as heights begin a slow rise. While not
a strong ridge pattern...the weak ridge will allow for warming as
the region remains dry. Of less confidence will be the trough
attempting to push into the Pacific northwest by Wednesday of next
week. Models are not showing a deep trough dropping to the region
next week...but are trending towards that solution. Therefore...
will not introduce precipitation as this may become another possible
inside slider. If so...mountain precipitation may by the only weather
VFR conditions will prevail across the central California interior
during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
on Thursday August 28 2014... unhealthy for sensitive groups in
Fresno... Kern... Kings... Madera... Merced and Tulare counties
and Sequoia National Park and Forest.
Further information is available at valleyair.Org
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 08-27 109:1924 80:1895 78:1913 51:1895
kfat 08-28 108:1924 78:1953 77:1894 52:1907
kfat 08-29 109:1915 79:2010 76:1915 52:1895
Kbfl 08-27 111:1931 84:1991 77:1988 45:1903
kbfl 08-28 109:1944 82:1953 78:1972 48:1903
kbfl 08-29 109:1915 79:1953 78:1931 45:1903