Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
331 PM PST Thursday Feb 11 2016
Update...updated air quality issues.
high pressure will continue to bring dry weather to the central
California interior through Tuesday with patchy night and morning
fog in the San Joaquin Valley. A storm system is forecast to move
into the area next week with showers and wintry weather expected
in the mountains by midweek.
Discussion...sunshine is boosting temperatures to well above
normal again over the County Warning Area this afternoon courtesy of an upper
level ridge of high pressure. This ridge will weaken somewhat
and drift eastward to The Four Corners region during the next
24 hours and continue to bring dry weather and above normal
afternoon temperatures to the central California interior Friday. In
the meantime...a cold front that is currently poised over the
eastern Pacific will approach the West Coast. This feature is
already limited on moisture on satellite imagery so when it
makes inroads into the central California interior Saturday afternoon
it will probably bring little more than altocumulus clouds and
at best some sprinkles to mainly the higher terrain. Nonetheless
maximum temperatures will finally trend a bit cooler this weekend yet still
remain slightly above normal across the County Warning Area. The cold front will
also be accompanied and followed by a modest onshore flow
Saturday through Sunday.
The models forecast a rather strong upper level ridge to build
into California from the eastern Pacific early next week. This will
bring a return of unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures to
the County Warning Area Monday and Tuesday. Maximum temperatures will likely be back in the
70s in the sj valley...lower foothills and the Kern County desert
both days. Confidence is increasing with each model run that a
return of wintry weather will occur during the middle of next
week. The ecm solution is more bullish on this idea than the GFS and
forecasts a colder...wetter and much deeper upper level trough to
move into the central California interior Wednesday night through next
Thursday. On the other hand the GFS depicts more of an open wave
trough to sail through the County Warning Area Wednesday evening and exit into the
Great Basin next Thursday. Despite the faster timing of the GFS
both models hint of a subtropical moisture tap with this system
in addition to decent interaction of the 300 mb jet. Either way...
the west slopes of the Sierra Nevada appear destined for healthy
orographic precipitation during the middle of next week so stay
tuned for updates.
Otherwise...the only weather impacts in the near term will be
patchy late night and morning fog in the sj valley...specifically
Friday and again Sunday...Monday and Tuesday. Luckily the sun
is strong enough this time of year to burn off most of the fog
by 9 am.
in the San Joaquin Valley...areas of MVFR in haze with local IFR in
fog possible from 12z to 18z Thursday. Otherwise...VFR conditions
will prevail across the central California interior for the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues... on Friday February 12 2016... fireplace/wood
stove burning status is: no burning unless registered in Fresno...
Kern... Kings... Madera and Tulare counties.
Further information is available at valleyair.Org
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 02-11 73:1925 46:2001 53:1970 28:1948
kfat 02-12 76:1921 46:1903 54:1983 27:1949
kfat 02-13 79:1921 43:1903 56:1987 24:1949
Kbfl 02-11 81:1925 45:1989 56:1925 20:1901
kbfl 02-12 80:1921 42:1919 56:1957 20:1901
kbfl 02-13 83:1924 49:1949 55:1986 25:1908