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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
250 AM PST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. SOME 
PATCHY LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE TODAY AS WELL 
AS SOME AREAS OF FROST. COLDER BY MIDWEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF 
SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO INTERIOR 
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN 
UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO 
THE GREAT BASIN AS AN INSIDE SLIDER. THIS SHORT-WAVE WILL KEEP A 
HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED EAST-PACIFIC RIDGE OFFSHORE WITH A NORTHWESTERLY 
FLOW CONTINUING OVER CALIFORNIA.

DEWPOINTS WERE NEAR PERSISTENCE AT MOST SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY LOCATIONS 
THIS MORNING...AND AT 10Z /0200 PST/ TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 
30S. IN THE KERN COUNTY DESERT AND INDIAN WELLS VALLEY...TEMPERATURES 
WERE DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM SATURDAY MORNING...MOSTLY IN THE MID 
TO UPPER 20S.

THE MODELS FORECAST MODEST WARMING OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AT 850 MB 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN 850-MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO 
PLUNGE 7-10 C TUESDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES. THIS WILL BRING A 
COLD AIRMASS FOR THE END OF THE YEAR...AND NEW YEAR/S EVE COULD SEE 
LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS AS SNOW LEVELS 
FALL BELOW 3000 FEET.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DROPPING 
DOWN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RIDGE MONDAY...DEEPENING THE SHORT- 
WAVE INTO A TROUGH THAT DIGS SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. AS 
THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE REGION...THE EMBEDDED LOW IS FORECAST TO 
BE OVER YOSEMITE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TO DROP SOUTHWEST 
TO OVER THE KINGS/MONTEREY COUNTY LINE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL SUPPORT UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION OVER 
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS TUESDAY...AND 
OVER THE ENTIRE WFO HANFORD COUNTY WARNING/FORECAST AREA TUESDAY 
NIGHT.

THE QPF FOR THIS SYSTEM IS LOW...ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ON 
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FLOOR AND BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER INCH 
FOR THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE AN INCH OR 
TWO...BUT WITH THE VERY LOW SNOW LEVELS ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY 
ON THE MAJOR ROADS BETWEEN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE 
SOUTHLAND...INTERSTATE 5 OVER THE GRAPEVINE AND HIGHWAY 58 THROUGH 
THE TEHACHAPI PASS. THIS COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOLIDAY 
TRAVEL FOR THE NEW YEAR/S DAY HOLIDAY PERIOD.

THE COLD AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL 
CALIFORNIA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF MODELS 
KEEP CENTRAL AND SOUTH VALLEY LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S...ALTHOUGH THE  
OPERATIONAL GFS MEX GUIDANCE CALLS FOR LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY 
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW FREEZING.

850-MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RECOVER NEXT WEEKEND...BACK TO 
VALUES CLOSE TO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WOULD BRING VALLEY TEMPERATURES 
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AFTER A COLD START TO 2015.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND LOCAL IFR 
VISIBILITIES IN MIST THROUGH 18Z TODAY AND AGAIN AFTER 06Z MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SUNDAY DECEMBER 28 2014... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS AND
MADERA COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-28       66:1945     35:1908     54:1977     24:1962
KFAT 12-29       69:1949     36:1908     54:1977     24:1990
KFAT 12-30       67:1904     36:1902     54:2001     24:1969

KBFL 12-28       73:1977     40:1908     58:1977     24:1930
KBFL 12-29       73:1956     40:1929     57:1977     22:1929
KBFL 12-30       74:1904     44:1986     53:1981     15:1905

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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