Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
310 am PDT sun Jul 5 2015
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will continue over the
high country of the southern Sierra Nevada through Monday...then
only a slight chance each afternoon through Wednesday. A weather
disturbance will cross the area on Thursday bringing a chance of
thunderstorms to the Sierra and a cooling trend late next week.
eastern Pacific Rex block pattern...upper level high pressure
north of upper level low pressure will keep the pattern steady and
stable through midweek next week. Steadily lowering temperatures with
increased onshore flow will be a welcome trend to the region.
Thunderstorms will be scattered across the High Sierra today and
tomorrow with the extreme western edge of the sub tropical moisture
plume across Nevada will move east by Tuesday. Only slight chances
possible on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The Rex pattern will break down as the ridge breaks down and
slides west. This will allow the closed upper level low center to
drift inland across the South Valley on Thursday with a middle level
jet of around 30 kts swinging around the base of the low center to
provide increase dynamics to scattered thunderstorms all the way down
into the Tehachapi Mountains Thursday afternoon. The cold core
will be around -14c at 500mb and the track at this time is
expected across Kern County.
Surface based instability parameter are marginal in the valley and
much better in the mountains. Have bumped up probability of precipitation across the
tehachapis on Thursday and still going ghost probability of precipitation in the
valley...as confidence is still not there on the exact track of
the low center.
Once the low center passes by on Friday a strong upper ridge
builds north from Arizona and dries and heats up the central California
interior for late next weekend as we once again flirt with the
century mark by next Sunday.
MVFR ceiling possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms over
the southern Sierra Nevada later this afternoon through the evening
hours. Elsewhere...VFR conditions will prevail throughout the
central California interior during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
on Sunday July 5 2015... unhealthy for sensitive groups in Kern
and Tulare counties and Sequoia National Park and Forest.
Further information is available at valleyair.Org
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 07-05 112:1991 77:1909 77:1991 52:1948
kfat 07-06 111:2007 83:1903 78:2007 50:1955
kfat 07-07 111:1905 84:1891 76:2014 53:1903
Kbfl 07-05 114:1931 80:1961 81:1970 53:1948
kbfl 07-06 116:1913 85:1955 81:2011 52:1915
kbfl 07-07 114:1905 85:1983 81:1968 46:1903