Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
345 am PDT Sat may 23 2015
a weak trough of low pressure will approach central California from
today with afternoon showers likely over the southern Sierra Nevada
and possibly some isolated thunderstorms. A diminishing chance of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue for the remainder
of the Holiday weekend. Temperatures will be several degrees warmer
today with the warming trend continuing into early next week.
Discussion...water vapor satellite imagery showing yesterday's
upper low has now shifted over northern Arizona/southern Utah
early this morning. The storm produced some good rainfall totals
over the southern San Joaquin Valley with the Bakersfield Meadows
Field Airport measuring 0... the previous record of
only 0.04" for the date. In addition to that...many areas saw high
temperatures around 15 degrees below normal for late may.
Satellite and surface observations indicate extensive cloud cover
lingering across the mountains and east side of the San Joaquin
Valley...but precipitation has ended for now. Another short wave
trough is noted as it's sliding south from Oregon to over norcal.
This feature will drop down towards central California this afternoon and
in combination with daytime heating...will help kick off scattered
showers over the southern Sierra with some isolated thunderstorms
also possible. The trough quickly exits over socal Saturday night
with a diminishing chance of afternoon convection continuing over
the southern Sierra through the remainder of the Holiday weekend. The
medium range ensembles show ridging building in Monday but then a
very weak short wave drifting in from the Pacific Tuesday-Wednesday to keep low
afternoon probability of precipitation over the Sierra. Models then favor a more amplified
ridge building in from the epac for the end of the week.
Temperatures will be at least a few degrees warmer than yesterday
with some areas in the sjv and Kern County desert up several. The
warming trend will continue through Memorial Day as the air mass
warms and clouds decrease. Expecting highs to be around climatology on
Sunday then a bit above on Memorial Day. The weak short wave should stall
the warming Tuesday-Wednesday then it commences again under the building
ridge to round out the work week. A healthy onshore surface flow
is continuing to produce some gusty winds through and below the
mountain passes in eastern Kern County. Expect these conditions
to persist over the Holiday weekend. The approaching trough today
will also produce some breezy to gusty conditions along the far
west side of the sjv below the Coast Range passes this evening.
areas of mountain obscuring IFR conditions across the Sierra Nevada
in showers...with isolated thunderstorms possible from 18z today
through 03z Sunday. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail during
the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 05-23 103:1967 65:1916 71:2000 44:1960
kfat 05-24 103:1943 64:1916 68:2001 41:1953
kfat 05-25 102:1890 59:1906 68:2014 42:1980
Kbfl 05-23 107:1904 67:2010 73:2000 44:1903
kbfl 05-24 107:1982 68:1980 76:1982 41:1916
kbfl 05-25 106:1982 58:2008 77:1982 39:1893