Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
727 PM PST Tuesday Nov 24 2015
Update...updated air quality issues and corrected timing of
winter weather advisories.
temperatures will begin falling this afternoon as a cold front
pushes through the central California interior. Some rain and snow
associated with the system may cause some travel headaches for
Discussion...a cold Pacific storm system has moved into north
California. The system will continue moving southeast tonight across
central California bringing precipitation...gusty winds...and a
colder airmass. The leading cold has moved over Merced County and
Yosemite park this afternoon. The front has a distinct dry
boundary with skies clearing over the north San Joaquin Valley.
The front will continue moving southeast reaching the Tehachapi Mountains
around 06z this evening. Winds becoming windy ahead of the front
with the stronger onshore flow. Stronger wind gusts occurring
through and below the mountain passes of the coast and across the
Kern County mountains. Models trending a bit lighter with the
rainfall amounts with the heaviest amounts occurring during the
evening. A west-east oriented upper jet will move S tonight behind the
front resulting in strong winds over the Sierra high country as
well as Kern County mountain passes through midday Wednesday.
Additional rainfall amounts will be possible after midnight but
should be mainly light. Snow levels will lower rapidly behind this
cold front...as low as 2k feet in the Sierra and down to about 3k
feet in the tehachapis by Wednesday morning. Stronger northwest winds
behind the front will upslope over the Tehachapi Mountains with
snow levels near pass level. Some snow may accumulate resulting in
slick roads late tonight. The threat of additional showers will
continue Wednesday morning with an upstream disturbance moving
through the low along the coast.
Models consensus is for the center of the cold core low stalling
over Nevada. This will provide a cyclonic flow over California with
showers possible each afternoon through Friday mainly over the
Sierra high country. Wind mixing and low clouds will mitigate the
threat of below freezing temperatures in the valley but will also
keep the high temperature cool and below normal into the weekend.
A ridge will build over the Pacific northwest by the weekend. This
will result in a slow moving blocking weather pattern. Have low
confidence in the extended forecast and made little changes.
increasing clouds with MVFR in precipitation at mce and mer from 21z
Tuesday. Precipitation will spread south across the central California
interior through 04z. Gusty south winds to 25 miles per hour in the San Joaquin
Valley this afternoon. Another round of showers across the central
California interior after 12z Wednesday with gusty northwest winds to 25 kts.
Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail over the Kern County
desert regions during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is low.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 11-24 78:1939 49:2010 54:1896 29:1947
kfat 11-25 76:1933 45:1972 54:1985 27:1898
kfat 11-26 75:1914 45:1972 53:2008 30:1987
Kbfl 11-24 87:1917 49:2010 59:1926 22:1931
kbfl 11-25 79:1914 45:1954 55:1910 25:1931
kbfl 11-26 90:1907 47:1972 53:2008 27:1931
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday caz096.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday caz095.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday above 2000 feet
for the caz093.