Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
318 am PDT Wednesday Oct 7 2015
an upper level ridge of high pressure will build over central
California during the next few days and bring dry weather with
a day to day warming trend through Saturday.
Discussion...the closed low that brought cool and showery
weather to much of the County Warning Area at the beginning of this week is
now centered over Arizona. But it will not be the last we see
of this system. The operational models...in addition to the
ensembles...strongly agree that this low will retrograde
southwestward into Baja California California this weekend and end up off the
Southern California coast early next week. Once there...this low will
be in a favorable position to bring moisture northward into the
County Warning Area...perhaps as early as Tuesday night but probably not until
next Wednesday. If so...showers may pay US a return visit by day
7...especially over the higher terrain.
In the interim...the weather pattern across central California will be
dry and rather benign. A fairly strong upper level ridge of high
pressure (590+ dm) anchored off the Southern California coast will build
into the County Warning Area during the next 72 hours. Other than some cirrus
clouds on occasion...skies will be generally clear through the
weekend. Day to day warming will bring temperatures to well above
normal by Friday. Saturday looks to be the warmest day with highs
in the low to middle 90s in the sj valley...lower foothills and the Kern
County desert. Otherwise...a light offshore flow can be expected
through the weekend. Winds aloft will become southeasterly Monday
and...with time...tropical moisture may become entrained in this
southeasterly flow early next week. Slight chance probability of precipitation were
introduced to the mountains and desert in addition to the west
side and south end of the sj valley on day 7. Sky cover was increased
accordingly and maximum temperatures were lowered slightly next Wednesday.
Aviation...VFR conditions can be expected throughout the central
California interior during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 10-07 97:2014 59:1923 65:2014 39:1969
kfat 10-08 99:1980 65:1973 65:2014 35:1949
kfat 10-09 98:1996 65:2013 65:1996 39:1949
Kbfl 10-07 99:1953 65:1923 70:1980 38:1908
kbfl 10-08 98:1953 67:1949 70:1910 36:1908
kbfl 10-09 101:1996 67:1930 68:1980 35:1908