Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
256 PM PDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015
a cooling trend will take place over the central California interior
during the next few days. Temperatures will average several degrees
below normal by the weekend. Winds will be gusty through and below
the Kern County mountain passes and on the west side of the San
Joaquin Valley through the end of the week. Temperatures will warm
to seasonable levels by Labor Day. Otherwise...dry weather is
expected through the Holiday weekend.
westerly flow pattern continues to dominate the region while a pair
of disturbance exist to the north and south of the district. While
the northern disturbance will affect the Pacific northwest...the
southern disturbance will skirt the southern end of the district.
Surface analysis does show an increase in moisture...but the
westerly flow aloft will force a bulk of the subtropical moisture
to the east and into the Desert Southwest. Therefore...being in
between disturbances will keep the district dry with relatively
warm temperatures. Furthermore...the northern stream disturbance
will begin dominating the region with an increase in westerly
winds near the surface. Therefore...will see occasional gusty
winds along the West Hill in the Interstate-5 corridor and over
the Tehachapi Mountains into the Mojave Desert. Dust may be a
problem for these areas as the ground remains very dry.
Short range model have a very good handle of the developing upper
low pattern pushing into the Pacific northwest toward the end of
the week. A low is prognosticated to dig deep and drop into northern
California...models show the deep cold air remaining over the
Pacific northwest. Therefore....the Pacific northwest may have the
threat of thunderstorms while central California only cools down
with breezy to windy conditions developing. The district will
remain dry during the trough passage this Labor Day weekend.
While models are showing less certainty in the longer range
projections...heights will begin to rise toward the middle of next
week. This will allow for warming of temperatures and lowering of
wind speeds. GFS moderate trend does show increasing uncertainty toward
the middle of next week and favors the building ridge pattern off
the northern east-Pacific region. Therefore...while models attempt to
move another low through the Pacific northwest around the middle
of the week. This disturbance may not affect the district during
its passage. Will keep the district dry for the forecast period.
areas of MVFR and local IFR visibilities can be expected in the
foothills and higher elevations of the southern Sierra Nevada due to
smoke. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail across the central California
interior during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 09-02 108:1955 76:2000 77:1998 48:1964
kfat 09-03 111:1955 71:1912 77:2003 52:1964
kfat 09-04 107:1988 74:1912 75:1998 51:1912
Kbfl 09-02 110:1955 74:1910 78:1998 50:1913
kbfl 09-03 112:1955 78:1985 78:1998 50:1913
kbfl 09-04 109:1988 77:1936 77:1950 49:1915