Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
222 am PDT Friday Mar 27 2015
Synopsis...high pressure will persist over the region providing dry
weather and keeping temperatures well above normal. A weak Pacific
disturbance will move in over the weekend and bring slight cooling
and breezy conditions along with a threat of showers and
thunderstorms over the Sierra crest. Temperatures will remain
several degrees above normal through the weekend and into next week.
Discussion...another record setting hot day is on tap for parts
of the forecast area as a strong anticyclone (high pressure area)
is parked over central California. Expect many 90+ readings over
the lower elevations with records falling. The high is projected
to weaken and move east tonight and Saturday as forecast models
bring a short wave trough into the coast tonight and Saturday.
This will allow a robust marine intrusion as gradients become
strongly onshore in both the central coast and Kern County desert
areas. Winds will pick up this evening through the usual passes
and about 8-10 degrees of cooling will occur on Saturday.
In the Sierra, cooler air aloft will arrive with the trough and increase
instablilty. On both Saturday and especially Sunday afternoons,
there should be enough lift and instabilility to produce some
thunderstorms over the higher terrain as well as some very high
elevation snow showers. Not expecting a widespread event however
given the the very warm pattern and lack of snow, the high country
will likely have more use than normal for late March.
For next week, a zonal flow pattern is projected, however at this
time models keep precipitation producing systems to the north of
central California. Should stay breezy through mountain passes and
over the Kern County deserts.
VFR conditions can be expected throughout the central California
interior during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 03-27 87:1986 52:1924 56:1930 31:1972
kfat 03-28 85:1986 53:1982 57:1957 33:1972
kfat 03-29 87:1969 47:1982 59:1986 32:1891
Kbfl 03-27 90:1986 50:1991 57:1978 32:1908
kbfl 03-28 88:1893 53:1998 58:1957 24:1907
kbfl 03-29 94:2004 55:1998 58:1978 23:1907