Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
215 PM PDT Thursday Aug 21 2014
upper level low pressure located over Southern California
continues to move eastward lowering the chances for afternoon
thunderstorms along the Sierra Nevada. A cooler and dryer
northwest windflow prevails over the area resulting in near normal
temperatures and mostly clear skies &&
except for a few cumulus along the crest of the southern Sierra
Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains...satellite loops show clear
skies across central California this afternoon. The upper-level
low over San Diego had triggered thunderstorms over far Southern
California... extending north into eastern and far southern San
Bernardino County...but lightning remain well away from Kern
County at this time.
The forecast concern this afternoon is the potential for orographic
forcing over the east slopes of the Sierra Nevada this afternoon and
evening is the easterly flow around the low. Thunderstorms that form
could drift westward over the crest into the high country of Fresno
and Tulare counties...so will keep the slight chance probability of precipitation along the
crest through 06z Friday /2300 PDT tonight/.
Despite the weak trough the low has pulled over California...19z
temperatures were running slightly ahead of 19z Wednesday...with
Fresno up 3 degrees and Bakersfield up 1 degree.
An upper-level short-wave was dropping through British Columbia this
afternoon. This short-wave is forecast to drop into the Pacific
northwest Friday...and into the Great Basin the next day. This will
keep temperature near to slightly below normal through the weekend
with central and southern San Joaquin Valley highs in the upper 80s
to middle 90s.
The short-wave is forecast to lift into the northern rockies Sunday.
This will allow the upper-level ridge over the southern U.S. To
build into California next week. Temperatures will warm back to
around normal by Monday...and then above normal with triple digits
possible in the warmest parts of the San Joaquin Valley next
An upper-level trough is forecast to drop out of the Gulf of Alaska
and into the Pacific northwest next Thursday. This will cool
temperatures a degree or two...so next Wednesday should be the
warmest day of the forecast period.
there will be a slight chance of a thunderstorm or two
over the southern Sierra Nevada through 06z Friday. Outflow winds of
35 kts could impact the southern Kern County desert through 04z
Friday from collapsing thunderstorms over western San Bernardino
County. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail across the central
California interior during the next 24 hours
Air quality issues...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 08-21 108:1919 80:1968 76:1913 51:1959
kfat 08-22 108:1897 81:1960 75:1995 50:1899
kfat 08-23 112:1891 79:1959 78:1913 51:1960
Kbfl 08-21 110:1919 80:1968 77:1982 51:1918
kbfl 08-22 109:1919 82:1983 78:2009 44:1903
kbfl 08-23 110:1913 83:1960 80:1982 49:1915