Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
300 am PDT Thursday Sep 3 2015
a cooling trend will take place over the central California interior
today and Friday with temperatures averaging several degrees
below normal through Saturday. Winds will be gusty through and
below the Kern County mountain passes and on the west side of the
San Joaquin Valley through the end of the week. Temperatures will
warm to seasonable levels by Labor Day. Otherwise...dry weather is
expected through the Holiday weekend.
and upper level low is centered over British Columbia with the
trough extending south into California. This system will bring
cooler air into central California today and Friday as it digs
south into Oregon before shifting eastward Saturday. There is
little or no moisture with the trough this far south...so
continued dry through weekend.
In response to the trough...winds will become gusty through and
below the passes in the Kern County mountains and desert. Winds
will also be breezy along the west side of the San Joaquin
Valley...especially through Pacheco Pass and along I-5 below the
other gaps in the coastal mountains where there could be some
local areas of blowing dust. Temperatures will be several degrees
below normal today through Saturday with high temperatures in the
San Joaquin Valley only in the middle 80s.
The main trough energy moves east on Saturday...allowing
temperatures to return toward normal by Monday as 500 mb heights
and 850 temperatures rise. The ensemble model trends show the
the ridge rebuilding over the eastern Pacific next week. The GFS
tries to bring another shortwave trough through the Pacific
northwest on Monday...but with the building ridge it will quickly
move it east Tuesday with little or no effect on central
California. Thus...continued dry through next week with
temperatures once again returning to slightly above seasonal
areas of MVFR and local IFR visibilities can be expected in the
foothills and higher elevations of the southern Sierra Nevada due to
smoke. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail across the central California
interior during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 09-03 111:1955 71:1912 77:2003 52:1964
kfat 09-04 107:1988 74:1912 75:1998 51:1912
kfat 09-05 105:1984 73:1978 73:1991 47:1887
Kbfl 09-03 112:1955 78:1985 78:1998 50:1913
kbfl 09-04 109:1988 77:1936 77:1950 49:1915
kbfl 09-05 109:1904 76:1978 75:1997 49:1916