Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
308 am PST Wednesday Mar 4 2015
Synopsis...high pressure will build over California today and
Thursday and remain over the state through the upcoming weekend.
This will result in a warming trend through the weekend and dry
weather for the next several days.
Discussion...amplified upper ridge off the California coast is now
building inland. This will provide our area with a warming trend
and dry weather for the next several days. Fog imagery indicating
some patchy strato-cumulus over the San Joaquin Valley...but the
low clouds will mix out later this morning. Some shallow patchy
fog is also possible over the San Joaquin Valley this
morning...but any fog which does form will rapidly burn off just
after sunrise this morning...giving way to a mostly sunny day
across our area. Rises in heights and thicknesses will result in
a noticable warming trend with afternoon highs at most locations
expected to be 4 to 8 degree f above yesterday.
06z WRF is indicating the ridge axis will push inland into the
Pacific northwest by Thursday resulting in a dry easterly flow over central
California Thursday and Friday. Offshore flow and downslope conditions
over the southern Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains will
result in lowering daytime humidities and rises in heights and
thicknesses in a dry atmosphere will result in a continued
warming trend each day for the remainder of this week with mainly
The medium range models and their ensemble members are in good
agreement in keeping the dry upper ridge over California through the
weekend and into the early portion of next week. This will keep
skies mainly clear and temperatures above seasonal normals across
our area. The medium range models are now in fairly good
agreement in breaking the ridge down by next Tuesday as an upper
trough pushes into the Pacific northwest. This will result in more of a zonal
flow pattern over California and open the door for some shortwaves to
bring increased moisture to our area by the middle of next week.
Have increased sky cover and introduced a slight chance to low
chance of precipitation for day 8 (next wednesday) in the grids as
Aviation...patchy MVFR visible for kmce and kmer between 12z and 18z.
Kmce may fall to LIFR visible temporarily for a few hours early this
morning. Otherwise...VFR conditions with light and variable winds.
Air quality issues...none.
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 03-04 84:1929 49:1951 55:1991 30:1966
kfat 03-05 84:1929 46:1981 57:1890 31:1971
kfat 03-06 86:1899 48:1952 54:2011 31:1971
Kbfl 03-04 88:1929 50:1919 64:1987 28:1907
kbfl 03-05 86:1929 50:1981 58:1975 30:1923
kbfl 03-06 82:1972 51:1958 57:1972 30:1903