Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
225 am PDT sun Jul 13 2014
a ridge of high pressure over the southwestern U.S. Will bring above
normal temperatures and dry conditions today. Tropical moisture will
then push into the area starting Monday with increased cloud cover
and a chance of thunderstorms to mountain and desert areas through
satellite loops show high clouds moving over central California this
morning as moisture continues to wrap around the upper-level ridge
core over southern Nevada. The ridge is forecast to expand over
California today...with 500-mb heights in excess of 5940 meters
across all of interior central California and 850-mb temperatures
over the central San Joaquin Valley around 26-26.5 c.
High temperatures in the central and southern San Joaquin Valley
Saturday were mostly in the 90s. Bakersfield only reached 94 degrees
due to the lingering pool of marine air trapped over the far south
end of the valley...but this relatively cool air should completely
mix out today...allowing the south end to warm by nearly 10 degrees.
The models are in good agreement with today through Tuesday being
the hottest part of the coming week...with Monday being the hottest
day as 850-mb temperatures warm another degree c over today.
Other than the heat...the forecast concern the next several days
will be the threat of monsoonal thunderstorms over the mountains and
deserts. An upper-level short-wave is forecast to ride over the
ridge and drop into the northern rockies Monday night. The GFS...
NAM-12 and European model (ecmwf) all elongate the ridge and turn its orientation to
northwest-southeast by Tuesday in response to the short-wave. This
will set up a southeasterly flow over central California...allowing
monsoonal moisture to surge into the region. One measure of the
location of the monsoonal moisture is the 850-mb 8 c dewpoint line.
By Wednesday...850-mb dewpoints over southern Kern County are
forecast by the GFS to be over 9 c.
The GFS does not forecast low 850-mb dewpoints over the mountains
and deserts until next weekend...although by Wednesday there is
drier air forecast along the central California coast and over far
Southern California. Have kept slight chance probability of precipitation over the mountains
and deserts for the forecast period beginning Monday...albeit
confined to the high country of the southern Sierra Nevada starting
next Friday as the drier airmass approaches the region.
VFR conditions can be expected throughout the central California
interior during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 07-13 110:1983 84:1932 83:1999 55:1903
kfat 07-14 110:1972 85:2011 81:1935 55:1920
kfat 07-15 111:1972 83:1975 81:1984 54:1905
Kbfl 07-13 111:1908 87:1995 85:1999 46:1914
kbfl 07-14 112:1908 88:2011 81:1972 50:1914
kbfl 07-15 114:1930 87:2011 85:1917 53:1905