Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
252 am PDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014
mostly clear skies over the region as weak high pressure prevails.
A warming trend will begin on Thursday and continue into the
Discussion...upper low off the Pacific northwest coastline continues to move
southeast...pushing The Four Corners high east and allowing for
the continued cooler airmass to dominate the region. One significant
difference tonight compared to last night is the lack of middle and
high level cloudiness. Mostly clear skies allowed temperatures to
fall into the middle 60s to middle 70s as of 2 am...between 2 and 5
degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago.
One last day of below normal temperatures is in store for the
area this afternoon...with valley temperatures generally in the
middle 90s. The cooler marine influence will have no impact on the
desert locations...where temperatures are forecast to warm well
over the 100 degree mark.
The upper low will shift quickly northeast into Canada late
tonight into Thursday morning...allowing The Four Corners high to
shift west. A few valley locations will top out around the century
mark on Thursday...while the rest of the valley will remain in
the middle to upper 90s.
More significant warming will take place on Friday...with 850 mb
temperatures warming between 2 and 3 degrees c through the region.
This will result in surface temperatures warming into the 100-104
degree range...with desert locations topping out around 110. These
temperatures are a few degrees above normal for the end of July.
The upper level flow...which has been predominately southwest...is
forecast to become light and south to southeasterly as early as
Saturday...but more likely by Sunday. This flow will allow
monsoonal moisture to once again move north into the
area...bringing at least a slight chance of thunderstorms to the
Sierra crest Sunday into the first part of the week. The GFS has
sped up the arrival of the middle level moisture compared to the 00z
run from yesterday...with the moisture now arriving on Saturday.
Although we did not add in thunderstorms for Saturday...we are
watching the trend of the models closely and it may be added in
over the next day or so. Regardless...confidence is medium to low
with thunderstorm timing as the moisture plume is not as
significant as the past few monsoonal surges.
VFR conditions can be expected throughout the central California
interior during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 07-23 113:2006 84:1918 90:2006 55:1897
kfat 07-24 113:2006 87:1999 85:2006 55:1903
kfat 07-25 113:2006 76:1913 82:2006 56:1889
Kbfl 07-23 114:1931 86:1903 83:2006 54:1914
kbfl 07-24 115:1908 83:1999 83:2006 52:1914
kbfl 07-25 116:1931 84:1984 84:2006 50:1913