Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
222 am PST Tuesday Jan 27 2015
Synopsis...a storm system off the Southern California coast will
move north bringing a chance of showers to much of the central
California interior through the afternoon hours. Dry weather will
return by Wednesday...however...another storm will bring a renewed
chance of showers to mainly the mountains and desert Wednesday into
Discussion...an upper low off the Southern California coastline
continues to bring light to moderate rain showers to much of the
region. The heaviest rain was observed in Kern County in the past
6 hours...where desert and mountain locations picked up between a
quarter of an inch to nearly two-thirds of an inch.
Otherwise...many valley locations from Tulare and Kings County
southward picked up a few hundredths of an inch to a tenth of an
inch. The high res arw...nmm...and hrrr all indicate that showers
will continue to spread northward...however very little
accumulation is expected. This activity is forecast to continue
into the early afternoon hours...with rain and snow showers
continuing over the Sierra Nevada into the evening hours...as the
upper low shifts quickly northeast out of the region.
Snow levels with this storm will remain around 7,500 feet with a
few inches possible over Sierra crest.
High pressure will briefly build over California on Wednesday
before a weak upper trough impacts the region Thursday into
Friday. The upper trough will become a closed low on Friday and
travel slowly southeast into Southern California on Friday and
into Arizona early Saturday morning. This will bring a chance for
rain and snow showers to the Sierra Nevada Thursday and
Friday...and a slight chance of showers to the Kern County desert
on Friday as the low shifts south into Southern California. The
ensemble mean trends have been very inconsistent with the track of
this low...giving forecasters very little confidence in
measureable rain...especially for the desert.
Once the upper low exits east...high pressure will build over the
region Saturday into Sunday...with the operational and ensemble
means all in agreement. The beginning of next week looks a bit
less certain...as nceps global ensemble showing very low
predicability for the upper level pattern for the beginning of
next week. Regardless...both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) are indicating dry
Lastly...with the light rain showers experienced in the valley
today...patchy fog will once again be possible through many valley
locations starting as early as Thursday. Patchy fog will be
possible each night and early morning from Thursday into early
local MVFR visibilities and mountain obscuratiions in showers
through 00z Wednesday. Otherwise VFR conditions for the next 24
Air quality issues...
on Tuesday January 27 2015... fireplace/wood stove burning status
is: no burning unless registered in Fresno... Kern... Kings and
Further information is available at valleyair.Org
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 01-27 70:1934 39:1963 52:2012 25:1949
kfat 01-28 78:1986 41:1963 50:2003 23:1975
kfat 01-29 73:1960 43:2002 55:1911 24:1902
Kbfl 01-27 75:1928 37:1963 51:2012 24:1904
kbfl 01-28 77:1988 47:1957 52:1981 27:1957
kbfl 01-29 74:1986 42:2002 54:1986 27:1903