Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
353 PM PST Tuesday Nov 25 2014
Update...updated air quality issues.
mostly clear skies with patch morning fog as weak high pressure
prevails for next few days. A winter storm is on track to affect the
area later in the weekend.
Discussion...upper level high pressure will continue to dominate
the region into Thursday...resulting in a warming trend. The
warmest day of the week looks to be Thanksgiving day...with valley
temperatures in the low to middle 70s. These temperatures are around
10 degrees above normal for the end of November.
Additionally...as high pressure remains over the area...in
combination with recent light rain...patchy dense fog will be
possible both Wednesday and Thursday morning. Please monitor the
fog forecast closely...as Thanksgiving travel may take a bit
On Friday...zonal flow will prevail over the area as a storm
system moves southeast toward the Pacific northwest coastline.
This will cool temperatures slightly...with daytime high
temperatures generally in the middle to upper 60s.
A big change in the weather pattern for the weekend...as the storm
system impacting the Pacific northwest shifts south impacting much
of California. Rain will arrive in Merced and Mariposa counties as
early as Saturday afternoon and shift south...impacting the entire
region by early Sunday morning. A few different round of rain will
impact the region from Saturday afternoon into Tuesday
morning...we will continue to nail down timing over the next few
days. Additionally...snow levels will drop to 7500-8000 feet on
Saturday afternoon and fall to around 5000-5500 by Monday morning.
As far as rainfall totals with this weekend/early week
storm...many valley locations will see between 0.25" to 1" while
foothill locations could see between 1" and 2" by Tuesday morning.
Additionally...high elevations in the Sierra Nevada could easily
see a few feet of snow.
Forecaster confidence continues to grow with regards to this
significant storm. The NCEP relative measure of predictability from
this weekend into next week has increased significantly in the
past few days. To add to forecaster confidence...the naefs
probability of measure precipitation over the area has increased
10 fold. We are certain this storm will impact the entire
region...we are just uncertain about exact timing and amount of
Please continue to monitor the forecast closely...as this storm
will likely impact many travel plans over the weekend.
Lastly...western National Weather Service offices will be using the hashtag
#leftoverswx to send out messages on social media regarding this
Aviation... in the San Joaquin Valley...local IFR and widespread
MVFR visibilities in haze/mist and local IFR/LIFR in mist/fog from
06z Tuesday until 18z Tuesday. Otherwise...expect VFR conditions
across the central California interior during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues... on Wednesday November 26 2014...
fireplace/wood stove burning status is: no burning unless registered
in Fresno... Kern... Kings... Madera... Merced and Tulare counties.
Further information is available at valleyair.Org
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 11-25 76:1933 45:1972 54:1985 27:1898
kfat 11-26 75:1914 45:1972 53:2008 30:1987
kfat 11-27 78:1959 47:1972 54:1985 27:1948
Kbfl 11-25 79:1914 45:1954 55:1910 25:1931
kbfl 11-26 90:1907 47:1972 53:2008 27:1931
kbfl 11-27 85:1901 46:1972 54:1904 28:1905