Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
237 am PDT Tuesday Mar 11 2014
dry and warm conditions are expected through the week as high
pressure builds back into the region.
Discussion...dry cold front has passed well to the south however
northwest winds continue below passes of the Kern County
mountains. Mojave and Cache creek continue to gust to 45 miles per hour and
the Wind Advisory will remain in place until 500 am. Later today
the flow will begin to shift to a northeast then easterly
direction as an upper level low forms over The Rockies and then
retrogrades to the west. By this evening with the low in place
over southern Nevada and surface high pressure building into the
northern Great Basin, east winds will increase over the Sierra and
the higher resolution namdng5 model continues to bring 40+ miles per hour
gusts to the San Joaquin and Merced River drainage's. In addition a
moderately strong offshore wind event will set up over Southern
California and Kern County. Downslope winds across the southern
Sierra and Kern County mountains will result in rather low
relative humidity. For now, no wind advisories will be issued
however later today the two above mentioned areas may need
advisories if the east winds do materialize.
For the remainder of the week the upper low over southern Nevada
is prognosticated to move east on Wednesday with a strong ridge building
and pushing east over California Friday through Sunday. Some
record high temperatures may be challenged on Sunday. The ridge is
then forecast to weaken on Monday with some cooling, however
temperatures will remain well above normal. Beyond Monday forecast
models are not in good agreement with the pattern evolution, the
GFS continues to bring a closed low pressure system and a rain
threat into the central coast on Tuesday whereas the European model (ecmwf) model
keeps the ridge in place. Ensemble models show a high confidence
in the ridge pattern into Monday but a low percentage of
probability of the low pressure system on Tuesday. Will keep it
dry for now.
strong winds with gusts reaching 45 miles per hour will exist near Mojave
until 16z today. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail throughout
the central California interior during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 03-11 86:1916 47:2006 55:1989 30:1951
kfat 03-12 84:1910 50:1952 55:2005 28:1950
kfat 03-13 84:2007 53:1981 59:1932 31:1950
Kbfl 03-11 94:1916 49:1922 57:1982 32:1935
kbfl 03-12 88:1910 51:2006 56:1979 25:1907
kbfl 03-13 88:2007 53:1969 59:1979 21:1907
Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM PDT Wednesday