Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
958 am PST Sat Dec 7 2013
with skies clearing this morning...made a slight adjustment to
temperatures as sunny skies expected today. As of 930 am PST...regional
Doppler radar showing lingering showers over the Sierra Nevada
with a wide area of rain and snow over Kern County. Dual-pol
Doppler analysis showing snow level at near 1600 feet with the
Kern County mountains well into the snow level. Therefore...will
keep the winter weather advisories in effect as a majority of the
precipitation is in the form of snow and the advisories affect areas down
to 1500 feet. The slight temperature adjustment and aviation
concerns will be the only updates so far this morning.
the cold front that passed through the Central Valley has left
plenty of cold air in its wake. Night time and early morning
freezing temperatures is expected to remain through the rest of the
weekend and into early next week.
the cold frontal system is currently pushing through interior
central California. As compared to recent nights...temperatures have
been relatively mild under cloudy skies and in the southeast flow
ahead of the front. Current 24 hour temperature trends are running up around
10 to 15 degrees in the valley. Although the temperature at for your information was
44 degrees some wet snow was reported in the vicinity as the heavier
rain band pushed south through the area. This scenario should
continue through the early morning hours as the precipitation
continues southward. The level however of significant accumulating
snow looks to remain generally above 1500 feet.
Models suggest precipitation will end from the northwest during
the day today as the frontal system slides south...lingering over
the mountains this evening...especially the upslope favored
northwest facing slopes in Kern County. Winter weather advisories
remain in effect for the expected snowfall accumulations in the
mountains and foothills. A reinforcing shot of colder air with a
shortwave trough following this frontal system will bring more
freezing temperatures to the valley Sunday and Monday mornings...and
possibly lingering Tuesday morning. A hard freeze warning remains
in effect for the valley for this period.
Some warming is expected by midweek under weak ridging ahead of
another approaching trough. Models begin to show differences in
the timing and magnitude of this trough and the forecast becomes a
little less certain. Our current forecast shows temperatures
warming by midweek and holding around climatology through the end of the
week...with some slight chance probability of precipitation be the end of the week.
widespread MVFR with areas of IFR in precipitation through 00z
Sunday...then improving conditions through 12z Sunday with local
MVFR/IFR over the mountains in upslope clouds.
Gusty winds expected over the Sierra Nevada crest...Tehachapi
Mountains and Kern County desert areas from 12z Saturday through
03z Sunday with gusts 40 to 50 knots possible at times and isolated
gusts to 75 kts along the highest portions of the southern Sierra
Air quality issues...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 12-07 69:1937 42:1965 52:1950 25:1978
kfat 12-08 77:2006 42:1965 50:1897 25:1978
kfat 12-09 70:1950 38:1972 53:1902 23:1972
Kbfl 12-07 76:1907 41:1965 53:1950 24:1912
kbfl 12-08 83:1915 43:1965 52:1949 24:1903
kbfl 12-09 74:1979 36:1972 52:1955 24:1923
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening above 1500
feet for the caz095.
Wind Advisory until 4 am PST Sunday caz098-099.
Hard freeze warning from midnight tonight to 8 am PST Tuesday
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon above 1500
feet for the caz093-094.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon caz096-097.