Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
315 am PDT Monday may 25 2015
a warming trend will occur over central California through the end
of the week...with temperatures becoming a few degrees above normal.
Otherwise...the region will remain dry...except over the Sierra
Nevada where afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Discussion...northwest flow aloft continues across over central
California as a long wave trough covers the western Continental U.S.. upper
ridging will remain just off the coast through midweek as an upper
low drops south from British Columbia over the pacnw. Expect some
more afternoon showers and possibly a few thunderstorms over the
southern Sierra today through Thursday. By then the low over the
pacnw will have opened up and shifted off to the east...allowing
the epac ridge to build inland.
Temperatures will generally warm a few degrees today in the lower
elevations...where skies will remain sunny. The aforementioned low
will temporarily stall warming on Tuesday as it drifts a bit farther
south. But the warming trend starts up again Wednesday and continues
through the end of the week as the ridge axis moves over California.
There is good model agreement with the ridge then shifting over The
Rockies next weekend as a Pacific trough approaches the West Coast.
The warmest days look to be Friday and Saturday with widespread 90s
across the San Joaquin Valley and eastern Kern County desert. Normal
highs for late may are generally in the upper 80s...and some areas
may reach the upper 90s. Expect some cooling by next Sunday as the
trough nears the coast.
Onshore surface flow continues to produce breezy to gusty conditions
through and below mountain passes. While these gusts are expected to
remain below advisory level...there is potential for some localized
blowing dust across the west side of the San Joaquin Valley this
afternoon and evening. This will have to be monitored as traffic will
likely be heavy along the highways for the end of the Holiday weekend.
The surface flow will remain onshore but weaken as we move through
areas of mountain obscuring IFR conditions in showers and isolated
thunderstorms developing across the Sierra Nevada through 06z Monday
and again after 18z. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail during
the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 05-25 102:1890 59:1906 68:2014 42:1980
kfat 05-26 103:1974 66:1946 68:2014 40:1953
kfat 05-27 104:1974 55:1971 69:1896 46:1998
Kbfl 05-25 106:1982 58:2008 77:1982 39:1893
kbfl 05-26 107:1951 68:1998 72:1979 40:1918
kbfl 05-27 106:1974 66:1971 75:1974 42:1917