Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
953 PM PDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014
lowered temperature for the south end of the San Joaquin Valley
mostly clear skies over the region as weak high pressure prevails.
A warming trend will begin on Thursday and continue into the
the push of marine air into the San Joaquin Valley Tuesday night
brought strong cooling to the lower elevations. The high at
Bakersfield today was only 89 degrees...down 9 degrees from Tuesday
and only 3 degrees above the record low maximum for July 23rd of 86
degrees...set in 1903. Fresno had a late high of 93 degrees...down 4
degrees from Tuesday.
The forecast concern this evening is the impact of the pool of
marine air trapped over the south end of the San Joaquin Valley.
High temperatures for the lower elevations of Kern and southern
Tulare counties will be strongly dependent on how quickly the marine
air pool is mixed out. With little change in the upper-level pattern
over California Thursday...and a light offshore flow forecast for
the lower elevations...do not see a mechanism that would completely
scour the marine air out of the south end of the valley. For this
reason...have lowered high temperatures a couple of degrees over
Fresno County...and stronger cooling further south with Bakersfield
not getting out of the middle 90s /although still 5 degrees warmer than
Did not make any changes above the valley floor as these areas will
be above the lingering impact of the marine air pool.
VFR conditions can be expected throughout the central California
interior during the next 24 hours.
Previous disc... /issued issued by National Weather Service Sacramento California/
strong upper level low pressure center off the Pacific northwest coast is
providing plenty of dry air across the region. Four Corners high
pressure center will remain nearly stationary through the forecast
period. Cooler temperatures and drier conditions across the sjv today as
onshore flow is in control. Baggy trough hanging back over the
epac is expected to retrograde to the west as four Corner Ridge
will build west as well. Gradual warming trend through the
weekend and continuing into early next week. Steady above normal
temperatures across the forecast area from Friday through middle week next
Sub tropical moisture coming around the base to the ridge through
northern Mexico may make its way into the Central Valley starting
Sunday and continuing through Wednesday. Models are not in strong
agreement in timing and intensity of moisture...but we are seeing
some good signals for a return for moisture into the area for
possible convection across the Sierra and into the Tehachapi
Air quality issues...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 07-23 113:2006 84:1918 90:2006 55:1897
kfat 07-24 113:2006 87:1999 85:2006 55:1903
kfat 07-25 113:2006 76:1913 82:2006 56:1889
Kbfl 07-23 114:1931 86:1903 83:2006 54:1914
kbfl 07-24 115:1908 83:1999 83:2006 52:1914
kbfl 07-25 116:1931 84:1984 84:2006 50:1913