Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
321 am PST Monday Nov 30 2015
low pressure over the Great Basin will continue to move east out of
central California region overnight. High pressure will then prevail
through Wednesday before the next Pacific weather system moves into
California on Thursday.
some high clouds crossing the north San Joaquin Valley as a weak
weather system approaches ncal. Cloud cover limited and thin so
little mitigation of freezing temperatures in the valley and
deserts. Higher elevations and mountains running warmer than
24 hours ago. The weather system splits with best dynamics pushing
towards the pacnw. The ec model forecasts some light precipitation
towards Yosemite late today as the frontal boundary moves
through. Wind flow turns north tonight behind the upper trough.
Moderate north grads set up tonight and should provide some wind
mixing to mitigate fog and freezing temperatures. However
protected locales in the sjv may still reach the freezing mark.
Surface high pressure builds over the Great Basin Tuesday while
an upper ridge builds east into the Pacific northwest. This will provide a
dry and warming offshore flow Tuesday and Wednesday. Expect more
favorable conditions for fog formation Wednesday morning in the
sjv due to the ridge axis overhead resulting in a stronger low
level temperature inversion.
Winds turn onshore with moderate south winds in central California Thursday
before the arrival of the next storm system. Winds downsloping off
the Tehachapi Mountains should provide additional warming across
the S sjv Thursday. The 00z operational models trends have
reversed with ec about 6 hours more progressive than GFS. While
the GFS model in good agreement with its ensemble means shows more
widespread and heavier precipitation amounts in central California.
The ec brings precipitation into the district Thursday afternoon
while the GFS forecasts a Thursday evening arrival. Have made some
minor adjustments with chance probability of precipitation over the central sjv and likely
in the Sierra from Yosemite to Kings Canyon np. Snow levels will
be higher than the previous storm as well. The trough moves east
on Friday with a few upslope showers possible. Ridging returns for
dry conditions next weekend.
Light winds will continue through Wednesday then increasing onshore
flow will result in breezy to gusty conditions Thursday and Friday.
Temperatures will trend slightly warmer the next few days with highs
climbing to a little above normal...then a cooler air mass moves in
again to end the week.
areas of MVFR in mist and haze with local IFR/LIFR in fog in the San
Joaquin Valley between through 18z. Otherwise...VFR conditions will
prevail across the central California interior during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
on Monday November 30 2015... fireplace/wood stove burning status
is: no burning unless registered in Fresno... Kern... Madera...
Merced and Tulare counties.
Further information is available at valleyair.Org
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 11-30 77:1924 44:1972 57:2012 29:1906
kfat 12-01 76:1926 40:1905 56:2012 29:1906
kfat 12-02 74:1907 39:1972 60:2012 27:1906
Kbfl 11-30 83:1924 46:1965 54:2012 28:1907
kbfl 12-01 79:1903 44:1972 57:1909 27:2004
kbfl 12-02 87:1915 42:1972 58:2012 28:2004
freeze warning until 10 am PST this morning caz089>092.