Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
227 PM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL 
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH AND BELOW THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN
PASSES AND ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE LEVELS 
BY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH LABOR
DAY WEEKEND. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO BUT IT WILL BE THE LAST
TIME MAX TEMPS ARE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS OVER THE CWA UNTIL
SUNDAY. SO IF YOU HAVE AN INKLING THAT ANOTHER COOL CHANGE IN 
THE WEATHER IS AROUND THE CORNER...YOU ARE EXACTLY RIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS NOW JUST COMING ASHORE IN THE PAC
NW WILL BRING THAT CHANGE AS IT DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST 
DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. BEFOREHAND...A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. THESE
HIGH CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST.

AFTERWARD...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW WILL CARRY TWO
DRY COLD FRONTS THRU THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THIS WEEK. THE FIRST
FRONT WILL MOVE SWIFTLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVE.
WITH ITS APPROACH...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL
CA WEDNESDAY...BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF MARINE AIR THROUGH THE SAC
DELTA AND POSSIBLY INTO MERCED COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
THE REMAINDER OF THE SJ VLY STAYS RELATIVELY WARM. THE SECOND COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW APPROXIMATELY 24 HRS LATER. EACH OF THESE COLD
FRONTS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SJ VLY WHERE SOME
BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...THE COLD FRONTS WILL BRING
LITTLE MORE THAN HIGH CLOUDS WITH THEM.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE NO WARMER
THAN THE 80S IN THE SJ VLY AND LOWER FOOTHILLS. IN THE WAKE OF
THE SECOND COLD FRONT...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MIGHT ONLY BE IN
THE UPPER 70S IN THE COOLEST LOCATIONS OF MERCED COUNTY. NIGHTLY
MINS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S IN THE COOLEST VALLEY LOCATIONS TO
THE LOWER 60S IN THE URBAN AREAS. IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
THE SIERRA...THERMOMETER READINGS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...SO HIKERS AND CAMPERS WHO ARE PLANNING A
WEEKEND OUTING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY SHOULD PACK A HEAVIER JACKET
AND BE PREPARED FOR AUTUMNLIKE TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD. LABOR DAY AND
NEXT TUESDAY WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER WEST TEXAS BUILDS WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CA. OTHERWISE...OUR
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN DRY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE 
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA DUE TO 
SMOKE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA 
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-01      107:1888     73:1964     76:2007     51:1964
KFAT 09-02      108:1955     76:2000     77:1998     48:1964
KFAT 09-03      111:1955     71:1912     77:2003     52:1964

KBFL 09-01      107:1902     74:1964     79:2007     53:1901
KBFL 09-02      110:1955     74:1910     78:1998     50:1913
KBFL 09-03      112:1955     78:1985     78:1998     50:1913
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations