Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
223 am PDT Monday Mar 10 2014
a weak weather disturbance will pass across the northern part of
the forecast area this morning bringing just a chance of light
precipitation. High pressure and dry weather will prevail this
week with temperatures warming to well above normal by the
Discussion...radar shows any light rain still confined to the
Sacramento area as the frontal boundary is parallel to the jet
stream and upper flow. Any threat of precipitation is certainly
delayed for even Merced County and Yosemite until some southeast
push is observed. Latest high resolution rapid refresh modeling
shows the first precipitation not arriving in Merced County until
after 10 am and then the band weakening rapidly over Madera County
and Yosemite shortly after 2 PM. I have trended the grids
accordingly. NAM downscaled model data shows little to no
accumulation even over the far north with winds picking up to the
northwest and increasing to gusts over 25 miles per hour by noon. Winds then
translate into the Kern County mountains and desert by late
Tuesday and Tuesday night are looking rather interesting in the
wind department. Forecast models drop a closed upper low into the
Great Basin and then retrograde this feature to the west by
Tuesday night. Forecast winds on the highest resolution models
show a rather easy to forecast offshore wind event for Kern County.
The naming5 model shows a very strong easterly push through the
San Joaquin drainage Tuesday evening and night and this will need
to be assessed for just maybe a Mono event? Will need to watch closely.
From Wednesday through the remainder of the week, the trend to a
strong ridge of high pressure is the main theme. By Saturday
heights at 500 mb take a big rise with values by Sunday running at
nearly 5820 meters. Middle to upper 80s should prevail and just maybe
a 90 or two. Unfortunately dry however.
areas of MVFR and mountain obscurations in showers in the
southern Sierra Nevada north of Kings Canyon through 24z Monday.
Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail throughout the central California
interior during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 03-10 82:1934 52:2006 54:1982 31:1951
kfat 03-11 86:1916 47:2006 55:1989 30:1951
kfat 03-12 84:1910 50:1952 55:2005 28:1950
Kbfl 03-10 89:1934 48:1919 59:1982 30:1907
kbfl 03-11 94:1916 49:1922 57:1982 32:1935
kbfl 03-12 88:1910 51:2006 56:1979 25:1907