Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
227 PM PDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015
Synopsis...a cooling trend will take place over the central
California interior during the next few days. Temperatures will
average several degrees below normal by Friday and Saturday.
Winds will be gusty through and below the Kern County mountain
passes and on the west side of the San Joaquin Valley through
Friday evening. Temperatures will warm to seasonable levels
by Sunday. Otherwise...dry weather is expected through Labor
Discussion...temperatures are trending several degrees higher
this afternoon compared to 24 hours ago but it will be the last
time maximum temperatures are near seasonable levels over the County Warning Area until
Sunday. So if you have an inkling that another cool change in
the weather is around the corner...you are exactly right.
An upper level trough that is now just coming ashore in the Pacific
northwest will bring that change as it deepens along the West Coast
during the next 72 hours. Beforehand...a southwesterly flow
aloft will bring some high clouds into the County Warning Area tonight. These
high clouds are associated with a weak upper level disturbance
currently situated off the Southern California coast.
Afterward...the upper level trough over the Pacific northwest will carry two
dry cold fronts through the central California interior this week. The first
front will move swiftly southward through the County Warning Area Wednesday evening.
With its approach...the onshore flow will increase across central
California Wednesday...bring another surge of marine air through the SAC
Delta and possibly into Merced County Wednesday afternoon while
the remainder of the sj valley stays relatively warm. The second cold
front will follow approximately 24 hours later. Each of these cold
fronts will produce gusty winds through and below the Kern County
mountain passes and along the west side of the sj valley where some
blowing dust is possible. Otherwise...the cold fronts will bring
little more than high clouds with them.
Temperature-wise...Thursday through Saturday will be no warmer
than the 80s in the sj valley and lower foothills. In the wake of
the second cold front...afternoon temperatures might only be in
the upper 70s in the coolest locations of Merced County. Nightly
mins will be in the lower 50s in the coolest valley locations to
the lower 60s in the urban areas. In the highest elevations of
the Sierra...thermometer readings could dip into the upper 20s by
early Saturday morning...so hikers and campers who are planning a
weekend Outing in the high country should pack a heavier jacket
and be prepared for autumnlike temperatures at the start of the
Temperatures will recover to near normal by Sunday afternoon as
the upper level trough weakens and lifts northward. Labor Day and
next Tuesday will become slightly warmer as an upper level ridge
over West Texas builds westward into Southern California. Otherwise...our
weather pattern will remain dry for at least the next 7 days.
areas of MVFR and local IFR visibilities can be expected in the
foothills and higher elevations of the southern Sierra Nevada due to
smoke. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail across the central California
interior during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 09-01 107:1888 73:1964 76:2007 51:1964
kfat 09-02 108:1955 76:2000 77:1998 48:1964
kfat 09-03 111:1955 71:1912 77:2003 52:1964
Kbfl 09-01 107:1902 74:1964 79:2007 53:1901
kbfl 09-02 110:1955 74:1910 78:1998 50:1913
kbfl 09-03 112:1955 78:1985 78:1998 50:1913