Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
238 am PST Tuesday Mar 3 2015
scattered rain and snow showers will be possible over the Sierra
Nevada and Kern County mountains this afternoon into the evening
hours. Otherwise...high pressure will build over California
resulting in a warming trend Wednesday into the weekend with dry
Discussion...an upper low...currently off the Southern
California coastline...will continue to move slowly southeast into
Baja California California later this morning into the afternoon hours. A few
lingering rain/snow showers will be possible later this morning
into the early evening hours over the Sierra Nevada and the Kern
County mountains. Snow levels will start around 5,500 feet late
this morning and lift to around 6,000 feet later this evening.
Light rain and snow accumulation will be possible.
Otherwise...dry weather will prevail for the rest of the region as
upper level northerly flow impacts the region. Temperatures this
afternoon will warm into the low to middle 60s...similar to those
observed yesterday and a few degrees below normal for the first
week of March.
Upper level high pressure will begin to build over California
Wednesday into the weekend...resulting in continued dry weather
and a warming trend. Sunday looks to be the warmest day of the
week...with valley...foothill...and desert locations in the middle
70s...a little over 5 degrees above normal for the middle of
Patchy early morning fog will also be possible...mainly along the
west side of the San Joaquin Valley each morning from Wednesday
into the weekend...given that the region received rain the past
few days...with high pressure firmly in place. Confidence is low
with the formation of fog each morning given the time of year
(higher sun angle...longer days...and warm afternoons.)
By the beginning of next week...the upper ridge begins to flatten
as an upper trough moves east toward California from the eastern
Pacific. Low confidence on this feature as nceps global ensemble
is indicating very low probability on the upper level pattern
beginning early next week. Regardless...the region looks to stay
dry for at least the next 7 days...high confidence.
Aviation...over the southern Sierra and Tehachapi
Mountains...local IFR and mountain obscurations in upslope
clouds and showers through 06z Wednesday. Over the San Joaquin
Valley...local MVFR in mist through 18z Tuesday.
Otherwise...VFR conditions can be expected over the central
California interior during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 03-03 80:1994 45:1976 55:1905 26:1966
kfat 03-04 84:1929 49:1951 55:1991 30:1966
kfat 03-05 84:1929 46:1981 57:1890 31:1971
Kbfl 03-03 84:1987 47:1976 55:1930 20:1917
kbfl 03-04 88:1929 50:1919 64:1987 28:1907
kbfl 03-05 86:1929 50:1981 58:1975 30:1923