Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
300 PM PDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015
Synopsis...dry weather will return to the central California
interior as a low pressure system moves east into Arizona.
Temperatures will climb through the end of the week from near
average to above average as high pressure builds over California.
Discussion...a large cut off low over western Arizona is
providing our area with a cool northerly flow although
temperatures have warmed some 3-5 degree f in the San Joaquin Valley
and southern Sierra foothills and by 6-12 degree f over much of the
Kern County mountains and deserts. The sun has been more prevalent
today across our area as much of the wrap around moisture
associated with the low has drifted to the east of our area.
The 12z WRF is indicating the low will drift southeast slowly into
Sonora by Wednesday while an upper ridge pushes into central California.
This will result in rising heights and thicknesses which will
bring a warming trend to our area which will continue for the
remainder of the week. Temperatures will rise to 10 degree f or more
above seasonal normals by Friday with afternoon highs reaching the
90s across the San Joaquin Valley...southern Sierra foothills and
Kern County deserts.
The unseasonably warm temperatures are expected to continue
through the weekend as a Rex block pattern prevails over the with
an upper ridge in place over California and the upper low retrogrades
slowly westward over southern Baja California. While the operational runs of
the GFS and European model (ecmwf) indicate the upper low will push back northward
by next Tuesday and spread moisture into socal...the ensemble
means show the low weakening significantly before making it/S
northward turn next week as the ridge shifts eastward. Will
therefore keep the forecast dry through next Tuesday. As
southerly flow increases...some middle/high clouds may stream into
our area. Temperatures will remain much above seasonal normals
from the weekend well into next week.
Aviation...there will be some local MVFR visibilities in br in the
San Joaquin Valley 12z-18z Wednesday. Otherwise...VFR conditions can
be expected throughout the central California interior during the
next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...none.
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is low.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 10-06 99:1987 64:1939 68:1892 37:1969
kfat 10-07 97:2014 59:1923 65:2014 39:1969
kfat 10-08 99:1980 65:1973 65:2014 35:1949
Kbfl 10-06 103:1933 64:1912 70:1980 37:1908
kbfl 10-07 99:1953 65:1923 70:1980 38:1908
kbfl 10-08 98:1953 67:1949 70:1910 36:1908