Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
259 am PDT Tuesday Sep 30 2014
a warming trend will continue through the week and into the weekend
as high pressure builds over the area. By Thursday...daytime high
temperatures through the valley will reach above normal values with
this trend continuing into at least early next week.
Discussion...mainly upper level northwest flow will prevail over
the region today as the region remains in between an upper trough
moving quickly south southeast into the Great Basin while upper
level high pressure builds over the eastern Pacific. Temperatures
this afternoon are forecast to be near normal for the end of
September...with valley locations warming into the middle to upper
Before the upper trough ejects quickly east late tonight into
Wednesday morning...an upper level shortwave moves south directly
over the southern Sierra Nevada. The high res nmm...arw...and the
NAM all indicate light showers over the crest late this evening
into early Wednesday...so a slight chance of rain/snow showers was
added to the forecast.
By Wednesday afternoon...the upper ridge over the eastern Pacific
is forecast to nudge slightly east...resulting in a warming trend
over the area. This trend will continue into the weekend...as the
ridge axis moves over California on Friday with little movement through
the weekend. As of now...Friday...Saturday...and Sunday look to be
the warmest days of the week...with valley temperatures reaching
the middle 90s. These temperatures are nearly 10 degrees above
normal. Even with temperatures well above normal...we will still
remain between 5 and 10 degrees below any potential record
In addition to above normal temperatures...an offshore wind flow
pattern is forecast to set up over the region Wednesday into the
weekend. This will result in lowered relative humidity values with possible fire
weather concerns by the middle to end of the week.
Aviation... VFR conditions will prevail throughout the central California
interior during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 09-30 101:2010 56:1894 71:2010 37:1950
kfat 10-01 100:1987 65:1894 70:2010 39:1971
kfat 10-02 101:2012 58:1916 71:2010 40:1891
Kbfl 09-30 102:1978 69:1971 72:2010 40:1908
kbfl 10-01 103:1980 65:1912 77:2010 37:1908
kbfl 10-02 103:1917 63:2006 72:2010 36:1908