Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
405 PM PDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014

Update...updated air quality issues section.

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Synopsis...
generally dry conditions and above normal temperatures will
continue through the remainder of the work week. However...there
will be a chance for showers over areas of the southern Sierra
crest on Thursday night through Friday morning then again on
Saturday afternoon. Early next week a storm system will approach the
West Coast and could bring cooler and showery weather to California.

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Discussion...
clear skies prevail across central California as upper level ridging
continues over the eastern Pacific. A few degrees of cooling has
occurred in the wake of a short wave trough exiting the state.
Temperatures are still several degrees above normal though...with most
valley and desert locations expected to climb well into the 80s by
the end of the afternoon. Winds in the Kern County
mountains/desert have subsided from this morning to less than 30
miles per hour. A few locations briefly reached 40 miles per hour overnight...with a
brief gust to 51 miles per hour near Mojave.

Forecasts strengthen the ridge overnight...resulting in a few degrees of
warming on Thursday with maximum temperatures near 90 in parts of the valley.
Another weak system will brush the forecast area Thursday
afternoon and have left slight chance probability of precipitation in place for the High
Sierra...continuing into the weekend. Also kept slight chance of
afternoon/evening thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday. Expect
about 5 degrees of cooling with this system going into the weekend and
increasing winds in the Kern County mountains/desert. Wind gusts
should remain below advisory levels though.

Model trends continue to favor a deep area of low pressure moving
across the area on Tuesday. Confidence is high for much lower
temperatures...dropping 15 to 20 degrees between Monday and
Tuesday. Less confidence though in timing of precipitation. Coverage
with slight chance to chance probability of precipitation across much of the County warning forecast area in place
appears to be the best approach for now.

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Aviation...
VFR conditions will prevail across the central California interior during
the next 24 hours.

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Air quality issues...
on Thursday April 17 2014... unhealthy for sensitive groups in
Kern County.
Further information is available at valleyair.Org

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Certainty...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.

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Climate...
records
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year

Kfat 04-16 95:1947 51:1917 58:1947 35:1896
kfat 04-17 94:1980 58:1933 58:1992 34:1896
kfat 04-18 95:1910 51:1955 62:1939 36:1941

Kbfl 04-16 97:1947 50:1995 64:1947 34:1922
kbfl 04-17 95:1954 60:1975 61:1954 34:1922
kbfl 04-18 98:1910 55:1923 63:1954 35:1922
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Hnx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Public...bso/Mendenhall
AVN/fw...Mendenhall
synopsis...pj

Weather.Gov/Hanford