Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
249 PM PDT Wednesday Apr 1 2015
Synopsis...upper level disturbance will brush through the region
with gusty winds this evening. Seasonal temperatures through
Thursday with above normal temperatures on Friday and Saturday.
Mountain showers and cooler unsettled weather for Sunday.
Discussion...the month of April is beginning much like March
ended across central California with dry weather and a robust onshore
flow. That onshore flow is bringing marine air into the sj valley
this afternoon and is finally cooling temperatures toward
seasonable levels. It has been a long time since high temperatures
have been this close to normal in the sj valley. After all...March
2015 ended up being the warmest March ever in Fresno and the 3rd
warmest on record in Bakersfield. Additionally...March 2015 was
exceptionally dry across central California. In Fresno...March 2015 tied
with March 1923 as the 6th driest March on record with only six
hundredths of an inch of rain falling in the rain bucket the
During the next several hours an upper level trough will move
southward across the County Warning Area. A strong 250 mb jet associated with
this system will support gusty winds through and below the Kern
County mountain passes and along the west side of the sj valley
this evening where areas of blowing dust are possible. A
recurrence of gusty winds is likely along the west side of the
sj valley Thursday as the upper level trough exits into the Great
Basin. A short wave ridge aloft will move over the County Warning Area Friday
and bring relatively light wind and slightly warmer afternoon
temperatures to the County Warning Area.
The weekend will trend a little cooler again as a storm system
deepens off the Pacific northwest coast...brings the return of a rather
robust onshore flow and another round of gusty winds on the
west side of the sj valley and in the Kern County mountains and
desert. Winds could breach advisory levels through and below
the mountain passes of Kern County by late in the weekend.
Additionally...the weekend will trend cloudier from north to
south and by Easter Sunday afternoon...some showers might
develop along the west slopes of the Sierra mainly north of
Forecast confidence is higher now that a major change in the
pattern will occur early next week. It will certainly be one
that is cooler...possibly cooler than normal...and potentially
wet by late Monday night or Tuesday. There is some uncertainty as
of this writing as to how far south wet weather will get early
next week so until the models come into better agreement on the
magnitude and track of this storm...we will be cautiously
conservative with probability of precipitation and quantitative precipitation forecast. All in all the ensembles are
looking a little more promising and are trending a bit wetter and
farther south from run to run. Hence...slight chance probability of precipitation were
introduced to the sj valley and adjacent foothills north of Kern
County on Tuesday with slightly higher probabilities in the
southern Sierra north of Kings Canyon. The verdict is still out at
this time as to whether any measurable precipitation gets as far south as
Kern County...so stay tuned. Whatever the case...the storm will
produce brisk westerly winds below the Kern County mountain passes
Tuesday and at least a small accumulation of snow over the higher
elevations of the Sierra mainly north of Kings Canyon by the
time the storm exits into the Great Basin Wednesday morning.
Otherwise...upslope clouds will linger in the wake of this system
for much of next Wednesday.
wind gusts of 35 knots or greater can be expected through and
below the Kern County mountain passes until 12z Thursday.
Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail throughout the central
California interior during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 04-01 90:1966 49:1982 56:1939 32:1975
kfat 04-02 87:1985 56:1907 57:2011 34:1982
kfat 04-03 91:2000 52:1958 56:1933 33:1964
Kbfl 04-01 88:2011 54:1998 62:1900 32:1917
kbfl 04-02 90:1985 57:1981 60:2002 35:1999
kbfl 04-03 90:1961 53:1965 62:1966 35:1955
Wind Advisory until 5 am PDT Thursday caz095-098-099.