Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
335 am PDT Friday Jul 25 2014
high pressure will remain anchored over the Desert Southwest through
the middle of next week. This will result in continued warm temperatures
across the area. Southerly flow around the high pressure will bring
monsoon moisture starting Sunday...increasing the threat of showers
or thunderstorms over the southern Sierra Nevada for much of next
Discussion...seasonably mild overnight temperatures continue...with
just some high clouds drifting overhead in southwesterly flow aloft
between the southwest US upper ridge and the east Pacific trough.
Models forecast the ridge to continue expanding westward during the
next few days...providing dry and warming conditions into the
weekend. Expect widespread triple digit highs today across the
valley...desert and lower foothill areas. These warm conditions
with temperatures running around 3-6 degrees above climatology are
expected to last through the middle of next week. There is
reasonably good model consensus in then developing a trough along
the West Coast and weakening the ridge for a few degrees of
cooling by the latter part of next week.
In addition to warming temperatures...as the current dry
southwesterly flow turns more south and southeasterly around the
expanding ridge...monsoonal moisture will begin to brush our
region. This will bring some chances for afternoon and evening
Sierra thunderstorms beginning Sunday. The North American
ensembles suggest the best moisture intrusion and chances for
mountain thunderstorms will be Mon-Wed...then tapering off during
the end of the week as the developing trough returns a drier
VFR conditions can be expected throughout the central California
interior during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
on Friday July 25 2014... unhealthy for sensitive groups in Fresno
and Kern counties and Sequoia National Park and Forest.
Further information is available at valleyair.Org
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 07-25 113:2006 76:1913 82:2006 56:1889
kfat 07-26 113:1931 84:1965 80:1931 56:1955
kfat 07-27 114:1933 83:1941 79:1933 52:1897
Kbfl 07-25 116:1931 84:1984 84:2006 50:1913
kbfl 07-26 117:1931 84:1965 83:1974 55:1903
kbfl 07-27 117:1933 85:1965 83:1980 52:1914