Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
655 am PST Thursday Dec 25 2014
cancelled warning and advisory products for the Kern County
mountains and deserts.
a fast moving weather disturbance will move across the region
through this morning. Light Rain...Mountain snow and gusty winds
will accompany this storm. High pressure will then rebuild over the
region for the next several days for a return to dry weather.
the fast-moving storm has begun moving east of the region...with
the trough axis over eastern Kern County at 1430z /0630 PST/.
Radar loops and mesoscale-west data indicate that precipitation over the
Kern County mountains has ended. Winds over the mountains and
deserts dropped off fairly rapidly between 12z-13z /0400-0500 PST/
this morning...as predicted by the high-resolution rapid-refresh
Have therefore cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory and Wind
Advisory for the Kern County mountains...the High Wind Warning for
the southeastern Kern County desert...and the Wind Advisory for
the Indian Wells Valley.
With the trough axis exiting Kern County this morning...the back
side of the trough will move into interior central California.
The strong upper-level jet dropping down the back of the trough
is still expected to trigger gusty winds over the west side of
the San Joaquin Valley...and have already seen a gust to 38 miles per hour at
the Merced regional Airport /kmce/ and gusts to 30 miles per hour at Castle
airpark /kmer/. The ind advisory for he west side of the San Joaquin
Valley from 17z this morning to 00z Friday /0900-1600 PST today/
looks on track.
Previous discussion... /issued 330 am PST Thursday Dec 25 2014/
radar loops indicate that precipitation is diminishing across the
central California interior this morning...with mainly upslope
showers over the valley-facing slopes. Satellite loops show that the
upper-level trough was over California with cold...dry air behind
With precipitation ending...the forecast concern this morning is the
strong winds in the Kern County mountains and deserts and the
potential for gusty winds on the west side of the San Joaquin Valley.
Winds below the Tehachapi Pass have gusted as high as 81 miles per hour already
this morning. Although the high resolution rapid refresh /hrrr/
model indicates the winds will diminish after 13z /0500 PST/...winds
likely will continue near borderline warning criteria through
sunrise. Have issued a High Wind Warning for the southeastern Kern
County desert through 15z /0700 PST/ this morning...matching the
time for the existing Wind Advisory for the Kern County mountains
and Indian Wells Valley...and worded the warning to stress the
strongest winds will be from the Tehachapi Pass to Mojave.
For the west side of the San Joaquin Valley...a strong 300-mb jet
will align with the west side of the San Joaquin Valley. The jet has
a 115-knots core...and will support gusty northwesterly winds through
and below the passes and canyons of the temblors and Diablo Range
with advisory level winds along the Interstate 5 corridor and
possibly spreading as far east as north.A.S. Lemoore. The Wind Advisory
for the west side of the San Joaquin Valley remains in effect fro
17z this morning to 00z Friday /0900-1600 PST today/.
The next concern is the cold airmass associated with this trough.
The forecast lows for the next two mornings are in the lower to middle
30s for the central and southern San Joaquin Valley. At this time
the areas of 32 degrees or colder are limited...so have gone with
patchy frost in the forecast.
Beyond today...the forecast calls for dry weather with temperatures
near to slightly below normal.
MVFR ceilings can be expected along the west slopes of the Sierra
and the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains through 06z
Friday with areas of IFR in precipitation in Kern County through 15z
Thursday. Additionally...wind gusts of 35 knots or greater will
occur just below the Kern County mountain passes through 15z today.
Winds gusts of up to 35 knots are possible along the west side of
the San Joaquin Valley from 15z today through 00z Friday. VFR
conditions will prevail elsewhere across the central California
interior during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 12-25 72:1902 38:1908 54:1983 20:1987
kfat 12-26 70:1892 38:1908 55:1983 21:1987
kfat 12-27 72:1991 37:1908 55:1977 23:1962
Kbfl 12-25 76:1902 32:1918 56:1977 21:1899
kbfl 12-26 71:1999 35:1918 56:1977 20:1905
kbfl 12-27 72:1991 39:1933 56:1977 23:1930
Wind Advisory from 9 am this morning to 4 PM PST this afternoon
for the west side of the San Joaquin Valley /caz089-091/.