Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
314 PM PDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014
an approaching low pressure system will lower temperatures to
below normal beginning Thursday and return to near normal by
Saturday. There will be a slight chance of mountain and desert
showers and thunderstorms through Friday.
a trough of low pressure approaching the northern California
coast has kept the tropical moisture from the remnants of Odile
to our south and east today. There is still a very slight chance
that a shower or thunderstorm could develop over the southeast
corner of the Kern County desert near Edwards AFB or over the
crest of the Sierra Nevada the remainder of this afternoon and
early evening...but most of the moisture is being pushed eastward.
The low will move inland late tonight and Thursday. Most of the
moisture with this system will remain to our north...with just a
slight chance of light showers near Yosemite in the morning and a
slight chance of thunderstorms over the Sierra mainly north of
Kings Canyon in the afternoon. The trough will also usher cooler
air into central California with highs dropping 5-10 degrees
Thursday...bringing them back down to near or slightly below
normal for middle September.
The trough will close off over central California Friday and will
remain through Saturday before slowly lifting northeast Sunday.
This will keep a chance of convection over the Sierra Nevada
Friday and Saturday...with the best chance being Friday. A few
lingering showers or thunderstorms are possible along the crest of
the Sierra on Sunday as the low begins to move northeast.
Medium range forecasts agree that weak high pressure will be over
the area for the early part of next week...allowing temperatures
to warm slightly each day. However...there is another trough of
low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska that will prevent the ridge
from becoming strong. The European model (ecmwf) brings this trough of low
pressure across northern California next Wednesday and Thursday...
but once again it looks like most of the precipitation will remain
to our north...possibly brushing the northern part of the County warning forecast area.
VFR conditions will prevail across the central California interior during
the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
This information is provided as part of a trial project conducted
by the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php /all lower case/ for additional
information and/or to provide feedback.
site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year
Kfat 09-17 105:1979 73:1950 74:1984 48:1965
kfat 09-18 107:1913 67:1963 78:1984 48:1978
kfat 09-19 105:1922 70:1989 75:1984 44:1978
Kbfl 09-17 108:1913 74:1993 76:1979 45:1915
kbfl 09-18 104:1913 69:1967 73:1984 45:1908
kbfl 09-19 104:1939 69:1989 73:2009 39:1908