Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
314 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015
another dry day for southeast Texas with afternoon water vapor
imagery showing shortwave ridging over central Texas. Farther
west... an upper low centered over Arizona was pushing eastward.
Middle to upper level moisture moving around the ridge over Texas was
seen as cirrus drifting across the forecast area... with a
scattered cumulus field having developed east of Highway 59 as
temperatures have climbed into the middle to upper 80s this
Afternoon cumulus will dissipate with loss of daytime heating
this evening... with mostly clear skies allowing overnight lows to
range from from the 60s inland to low 70s along the coast. Patchy
radiation fog developed over parts of the southwestern counties
this morning... and with similar conditions expected Wednesday
morning /light winds... a few passing high clouds... and low dew
point depressions/ anticipate an additional round of patchy fog.
Sref guidance shows the greatest potential for reduced
visibilities southwest of the Houston metropolitan and south of
Interstate 10... and have maintained previous forecast/S mention
of patchy fog for these areas through middle-morning Wednesday.
The upper ridge will continue to exert at least some influence
over the region on Wednesday before it flattens and shifts east
in advance of the approaching upper low. The departure of the
upper ridge will also shift surface high pressure away from the
region... with winds becoming easterly to southeasterly as the
surface ridge departs. This onshore flow will allow some Gulf
moisture to return to the region /precipitable water values
peaking 1.5 to 1.7 inches on Friday/... with better moisture
return over south central and south Texas. Medium range guidance
continues to pull the upper low farther and farther west of the
region... now bringing it only as far as southwestern New Mexico
late Wednesday night before retrograding it towards Baja California
California over the weekend. Could still see a few showers develop
as convective temperatures are reached on Thursday and Friday but
with limited available moisture and upper level support well west
of the region... only carrying 20 probability of precipitation for this portion of the
An upper trough swinging across the Central Plains on Friday will
send a weak cold front into the area late Friday into Saturday...
allowing drier air to filter into the region in its wake with
little impact on temperatures. Upper ridging looks to build back
over Texas during the weekend... keeping southeast Texas dry with
temperatures above seasonal normals /mid to upper 80s/ into the
beginning of next week.
light to moderate northeast winds will become more east to
southeast as the week progresses. Winds and seas could be
a little higher on Thursday and Friday due to a slightly
tighter pressure gradient...but caution flags are not
anticipated. With the gradient weakening over the weekend...
expect to see lower winds and seas. 42
Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 67 91 69 90 69 / 0 0 10 20 20
Houston (iah) 68 90 69 88 69 / 0 0 10 10 20
Galveston (gls) 73 85 75 83 74 / 0 0 10 10 20