Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
336 am CDT Monday Apr 27 2015
at 3 am...a linear mesoscale convective system is just entering the County Warning Area. It appears that
this feature will move through the entire County Warning Area before 12z and may
produce some wind damage and hail before exiting southeast Texas. Things get
more complicated for this afternoon. Subsidence will likely dominate in
the wake of this system through the early afternoon...but forecast soundings
show a great deal of instability for the afternoon. Not sure how things
will play out but will keep high end chance probability of precipitation for now and see
if convection can refire. Will also maintain chance of severe for
the afternoon convection as colder air aloft would support a hail
threat. Will be tweaking probability of precipitation before the morning zone forecast product is issued.
A cold front will cross southeast Texas tonight and this feature could also
serve as a focus for additional shra/tsra. The front will usher in
cooler temperatures and brisk northwest winds. Mav guidance is bullish
with winds and a Wind Advisory may be required for the coastal
counties late tonight into early Tuesday.
Wrap around clouds and some light showers will be possible on
Tuesday as the upper level feature gradually shifts east. Sunshine
should return on Wednesday and continue through next weekend. Dew
points will be in the lower 50s so humidity levels will be as
pleasant as the temperatures. After all the active weather over
the past couple of weeks...it'll be nice to get a 5-6 day stretch
of nice weather. Moisture return won't really get going until
early next week so pulled rain chances from next weekend. 43
moderate onshore winds will affect the Gulf waters early this
morning as inflow increases toward a line of thunderstorms moving
through southeast Texas. These will slowly diminish later today...
although gusty winds may accompany thunderstorms throughout the day.
A cold front is expected to move off the coast early Tuesday morning
with winds behind the front increasing to advisory criteria on
Tuesday at least over the Gulf waters. The strong offshore winds
will lead to water levels falling to between 1 and 1.5 feet below
normal in the Western Shores of the bays and in the Houston Ship
Channel. The winds will then diminish Tuesday night and Wednesday
with high pressure building overhead.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 80 60 67 49 72 / 70 40 20 10 0
Houston (iah) 82 63 70 49 74 / 80 40 20 10 0
Galveston (gls) 78 69 73 56 71 / 80 20 10 10 0